Transport
emissions projections
2014–15
August 2015
Published by the Department of the Environment.
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Executive summary
Key points
•Transport emissions are projected to be 105MtCO2-e in 2019–20, an increase of 42percent on 1999–2000 levels, and 115MtCO2-e in 2029–30, an increase of 55percent on 1999–2000 levels.
–Growth in incomes, economic activity and the population are expected to lead to growth in transport activity, which is the main driver of projected growth in transport emissions.
–Projected improvements in road vehicle drive train efficiency and greater use of hybrid vehicles are expected to reduce the impact of increased road transport activity on emissions by 17percent by 2029–30.
–Emissions from road transport are expected grow more slowly than emissions from rail and aviation.
•In the 2013 Projections, emissions from transport were projected to be 99MtCO2-e in 2019–20. Emissions are now projected to be higher in 2019–20 because the oil price is assumed to be lower and this would result in less of a shift to low emissions fuels and hybrid vehicles.
•The transport projections cover road transport, domestic aviation, domestic shipping, rail and other transport (pipeline transport and off road vehicles).
•Transport emissions were 17percent of Australia’s preliminary 2013–14 national greenhouse gas inventory, at 92MtCO2-e.
•Road transport produced 83percent of transport emissions in 2013–14.
Throughout this report:
1.Totals may not sum due to rounding.
2.Percentages have been calculated prior to rounding.
3.Years in charts and tables are financial years ending in the stated year.
Baseline projections
•The baseline projection covers emissions from road transport, domestic aviation, domestic shipping, rail and other transport (pipeline transport and off-road vehicles).
•Transport emissions are projected to be 105 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2-e) in 2019–20:
–Road transport emissions are projected to be 87MtCO2-e in 2019–20, which would be 83percent of transport emissions in that year.
–Transport emissions are projected to grow as a result of projected increases in transport activity. Population and income growth are expected to lead to greater passenger travel, and economic growth is expected to lead to increases in freight transport.
–Projected improvements in the efficiency of internal combustion engines and greater use of hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles andelectric vehicles are expected to moderate the effect of activity growth on road emissions by 5percent by 2019–20, and 17percent by 2029–30.
•Emissions are projected to be 115MtCO2-e in 2029–30 and 119MtCO2-e in 2034–35.
Figure1Transport emissions 1989–90 to 2034–35
Sources: DoE 2015, DoE analysis.
Table1Baseline transport emissions, key years
2000 / 2014 / 2020 / 2030Mt CO2-e / Mt CO2-e / Mt CO2-e / Increase on 2000 / Mt CO2-e / Increase on 2000
Road / 64 / 77 / 87 / 22 / 93 / 28
Domestic aviation / 5 / 8 / 10 / 5 / 13 / 8
Domestic shipping / 2 / 3 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 1
Railways / 2 / 3 / 4 / 2 / 5 / 3
Other transport / 0.6 / 1.0 / 1.0 / 0.4 / 1.1 / 0.5
Total / 74 / 92 / 105 / 31 / 115 / 41
Sources: DoE 2015, DoE analysis.
Impact of measures
•The 2014–15 transport projections include two measures: the New South Wales Biofuels Act 2007 and the 2014–15 Budget fuel excise changes.
–Minimal abatement is expected from these measures by 2019–20.
–Cumulative abatement from these measures is estimated to be 28MtCO2-e over the period 2019–20 to 2034–35.
•Projections of abatement from the Emissions Reduction Fund are not included to avoid disclosing potentially market sensitive information, and because the safeguard element of the Fund has yet to be decided.
•The Government will consider including estimates of abatement in future projections if it is possible to do so without reducing the effectiveness of the Emissions Reduction Fund auctions.
Changes from the 2013 Projections
•In the 2014–15 Projections, projected transport emissions in 2019–20 are 7MtCO2-e higher than in the 2013 Projections. This difference arises because:
–Projected emissions are 8MtCO2-e higher because oil prices are assumed to be lower. This has resulted in a small increase in projected transport activity, and lower projected use of low emissions fuels and hybrid vehicles.
–Projected emissions are 1MtCO2-e higher because emissions from pipeline transport have been accounted under transport for the first time, in accordance with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. In the 2013Projections, emissions from pipeline transport were included under direct combustion.
–Projected emissions are 2MtCO2-e lower due to weaker projected shipping activity.
Table of Contents
Executive summary
Key points
Baseline projections
Impact of measures
Changes from the 2013 Projections
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Sources of emissions from transport
1.2 Recent trends—national greenhouse gas inventory
1.3 Projections scenarios
1.4 Outline of methodology
2.0 Projections results
2.1 Trends in the transport projections
2.2 Road transport
2.3 Domestic aviation
2.4 Domestic shipping
2.5 Rail transport
2.6 Other transport (pipeline and off-road)
3.0 Sensitivity analysis
3.1 Oil price
3.2 Biofuels
3.3 High emissions and low emissions
Appendix A Transport abatement measures
Appendix B Changes from the 2013 Projections
Appendix C Key assumptions
Appendix D References
Figures
Figure1...... Transport emissions 1989–90 to 2034–35
Figure2...... Transport emissions by sector 1999–2000 to 2013–14
Figure3...... Projected change in transport activity and emissions intensity
Figure4...... Projected change in road vehicle technology
Figure5...... Private passenger vehicle emissions 1999–2000 to 2034–35
Figure6 ..Drivers of projected private passenger vehicle activity and emissions
Figure7...... Private passenger vehicle fuel use 2013–14 to 2034–35
Figure8...... Light commercial vehicle emissions 1999–2000 to 2034–35
Figure9 ...... Light commercial vehicle fuel use 2013–14 to 2034–35
Figure10...... Heavy truck and bus emissions 2013–14 to 2034–35
Figure11...... Domestic aviation emissions 1999–2000 to 2034–35
Figure12...... Domestic shipping emissions 1999–2000 to 2034–35
Figure13...... Rail transport emissions 1999–2000 to 2034–35
Figure14...... Oil price sensitivity analysis
Figure15...... Biofuels sensitivity analysis
Figure16...... High emissions and low emissions sensitivity analysis
Figure17...... Light vehicle standards, total transport emissions
Figure18...... Light vehicle technology share, key years
Figure19 ...... Comparison between the 2013 and 2014–15 Projections
Tables
Table1...... Baseline transport emissions, key years
Table 2Sources of transport emissions
Table3...... Projected transport emissions, key years
Table4...... Sensitivity analysis parameters
Table5...... Transport sensitivity analysis, key years
Table6...... Changes between the 2013 and 2014–15 Projections
Table7...... Oil price assumptions (A$2014/bbl)
Table8 ...... Biofuel production constraints (megalitres)
Table9 Change to effective fuel excise rates from the 2014–15 budget (A$2014/litre)
Table10...... Domestic gas prices and production assumptions
Table11.New technology price assumptions – medium sized cars (A$2014’000)
1.0 Introduction
The 2014–15 transport projections are a full update of the 2013 transport projections. They use the results from transport greenhouse gas emissions projections 2014 to 2050, which was prepared for the Department of the Environment by CSIRO (Graham and Reedman 2014 and 2015). The results have been scaled to align with Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory September 2014 Quarterly update estimate of 2013–14 emissions (DoE2015).
1.1 Sources of emissions from transport
The 2014–15 transport projections use the same definitions as the national greenhouse gas inventory, but road transport is disaggregated into private passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, rigid trucks, articulated trucks and buses. Australia’s transport emissions are defined in the national greenhouse gas inventory as emissions from the direct combustion of fuels in road transportation, railways, domestic shipping, domestic aviation, and off-road recreational vehicle activity.
The 2014–15 transport projections also include combustion emissions from pipeline transport, to align with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Combustion emissions from transport pipelines are accounted for under direct combustion in earlier projections, and in the national greenhouse gas inventory.
Emissions from electricity used in electric vehicles and rail are accounted for under electricity generation. Emissions from the production and refining of oil-based fuels, including biofuels, are accounted for elsewhere in the inventory.
Table 2Sources of transport emissions
Source / DescriptionRoad transport / Emissions from private passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, rigid trucks, articulated trucks and buses. Emissions from private on road motorcycle use are included with passenger vehicles.
Domestic aviation / Emissions from passenger and freight air transport that departs and arrives in Australia—including emissions from take offs and landings. Emissions from flights between Australia and another country are not included.
Domestic shipping / Emissions from vessels of all flags that depart and arrive in Australia. Emissions from voyages between Australia and another country are not included. Emissions from fishing vessels are reported under direct combustion.
Rail / Emissions from rail transport.
Other transport / Emissions from pipeline and off road transport. Pipeline transport includes the combustion emissions from the operation of compressors in natural gas pipelines. Off-road transport includes emissions from off road recreational vehicles. Other off-road vehicles, such as farm vehicles and construction equipment are accounted for under direct combustion.
1.2 Recent trends—national greenhouse gas inventory
Total transport emissions in 2013–14 are estimated to have been 92MtCO2-e, accounting for 17percent of Australia’s total emissions (DoE 2015). Road transport is estimated to have produced emissions of 77MtCO2-e in 2013–14, which was 83percent of transport emissions.
Emissions from non-road transport are estimated to have been 15MtCO2-e in 2013–14, which was 17percent of transport emissions in that year.
Figure2Transport emissions by sector 1999–2000 to 2013–14
Sources: DoE 2015, DoE analysis.
From 1999–2000 to 2013–14, transport emissions increased by 18MtCO2-e, or 24percent, an average of 1.6percent a year. Most of this increase was a result of increased transport activity.
Private passenger vehicles were the main source of transport emissions over the period 1999–2000 to 2013–14. Emissions from private passenger vehicles grew more slowly than private passenger vehicle activity, because higher fuel prices (peaking in 2007–08) led consumers to prefer smaller more efficient vehicles.
Improved fuel efficiency resulting from use of alternative drive train technology and incremental technology improvements has reduced emissions growth. Vehicle emissions standards in Europe and elsewhere have seen more efficient vehicles being sold in Australia because over 90percent of vehicles sold in Australia are imported. Changes in the type of transport used (for example, passengers travelling by air instead of road) and infrastructure development have also reduced transport emissions growth. Increases in road congestion, in contrast, have increased growth in transport emissions.
There was a temporary fall in domestic aviation emissions between 2000–01 and 2002–03, due mostly to the collapse of Ansett, and a reduction in tourism following fears of terrorism. Growth in other transport emissions was due to growth in emissions from pipelines used to transport natural gas.
Box 1 Measures of transport activityVehicle Kilometres Travelled:
In this report, road transport activity is measured using vehicle kilometres travelled.
In Australia (and elsewhere), vehicle kilometres travelled is one of the main variables used as a measure of a road network or vehicle fleet use. Estimates of vehicle kilometres travelled are used extensively in transportation planning for allocating resources, estimating vehicle emissions, computing energy consumption and assessing traffic impact (BITRE 2010).
Passenger Kilometres Travelled:
Passenger transport activity in the rail and aviation sectors is measured in passenger kilometres travelled. For example, a train which carries 100passengers a distance of 100 kilometres would account for 10,000 passenger kilometres travelled. Vehicle kilometres travelled is an inappropriate measure of activity for non-road transport because of the large variation in the capacity of ships and trains.
Freight Tonne Kilometres:
Freight activity is measured in terms of freight tonnekilometres—a measure of the amount of freight carried, and distances travelled. For example, an articulated truck that travelled 100kilometres carrying 10tonnes of freight, would contribute 1,000 freight tonnekilometres. Vehicle kilometres travelled is an inappropriate measure of freight transport activity because of the large variation in the capacity of freight vehicles.
1.3 Projections scenarios
The baseline scenario has been developed on the basis of current policies and measures that apply to transport. The effect of the fuel excise rates announced in the 2014–15 Budget, and the effect of the New South Wales Biofuels Act 2007 have been accounted for in the baseline scenario. The baseline scenario does not include the expected impact of the Emissions Reduction Fund for the reasons outlined above.
Sensitivity analysis has been conducted to indicate possible upper and lower bounds for projected transport emissions. Changes in the assumptions, regarding higher or lower oil prices, and significant increases in the availability of biofuels, were examined in the high and low emissions scenarios. The results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in Chapter3.
1.4 Outline of methodology
The transport projection is based on projections of emissions from road, rail, domestic aviation and domestic shipping, developed by CSIRO using the transport module of its Energy Sector Model. Emissions from other transport were projected separately.
CSIRO’s Energy Sector Model is a linear programming model which determines the least cost fuel and vehicle mix to meet given transport activity levels. The initial vehicle stock, specified in terms of vehicle categories, drive trains and vehicle size, was imposed on the model, and the total cost of travel, including vehicle, maintenance and fuel costs was used to project how the drive trains and vehicle sizes embodied in the vehicle stock would change over the projections period. Of the constraints imposed on the model, the following are the most significant: vehicle emissions standards, preferences for smaller vehicles, scrappage rates, fuel efficiency improvements for internal combustion engines, and limits on the development of alternative fuel refineries.
The main task of CSIRO’s Energy Sector Model is to make choices about the types of fuel that would be used for road transport and aviation, and the types of drive trains that would be used in the road transport. Fuel choices for shipping and rail transport are imposed, and are a result of modelled outcomes for road transport and aviation. It is assumed that differences in rates of fuel excise that apply to road transport, and limited fuel choices for aviation, mean that users of these forms of transport would be prepared to pay more for fuel than rail and shipping operators. Further, establishment of production and distribution infrastructure for biofuels is likely to depend on road and aviation customers, rather than the smaller shipping and rail customers.
Activity
Activity levels in the baseline scenario were projected by the Department of the Environment in consultation with CSIRO, and imposed on CSIRO’s Energy Sector Model. Activity levels were projected for each of the major transport categories:
1.Private passenger vehicles (vehicle kilometres travelled by cars and motorcycles).
2.Commercial vehicles (vehicle kilometres travelled and freight tonnekilometres).
3.Buses and rigid and articulated trucks (vehicle kilometres travelled by buses and trucks, and freight tonnekilometres for trucks).
4.Rail (passenger kilometres travelled and freight tonnekilometres).
5.Marine (freight tonnekilometres).
6.Aviation (passenger kilometres travelled).
Short term activity forecasts were based on work done by Pekol Traffic and Transport for the Australian Transport Facts 2014.Pekol Traffic and Transport projected activity levels by estimating new vehicles sales on the basis of macro-economic projections, the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ 2013 projections of population growth and projections of the total cost of travel. Private passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles in the initial vehicle stock were disaggregated into vehicle size (light, medium and heavy), on the basis of recent vehicle sales (ABS 2013). The age of the vehicles in the initial vehicle stock were estimate on the basis of recent scrappage rates (PTT 2014).
The historical relationship between income and passenger travel activity has been used to project passenger travel activity in the medium term. For the longer term, projected population growth has a stronger influence on expectations of passenger travel activity than income growth (BITRE, 2010). Freight transportation activity was projected on the basis of bulk and non-bulk commodities projections, which were based on projections of economic activity (PTT 2014 and BITRE 2014a).
Changes to activity levels were examined in the sensitivity analysis. Cross price elasticities of demand were derived from the literature, and used to project the effects of competition between private passenger vehicles and public transport, and between trucks and rail freight. Own price elasticities were used to project change in transport activity in response to changes in the total cost of transport. For each mode of transport, CSIRO assumed that a 1percent increase in the total cost of travel would lead to a 0.2percent decrease in activity.
Choice of vehicle
Choice of vehicle type is related to the following road vehicle drive train technologies:
•Vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE), including
–conventional petrol vehicles
–diesel vehicles
–compressed natural gas (CNG) / liquefied natural gas (LNG) vehicles and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vehicles
–LNG articulated trucks.
•Hybrid vehicles, including
–petrol and diesel electric hybrids
–plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
•Electric vehicles.
•Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
CSIRO’s modelling framework is based on the assumption that more efficient vehicle types will be purchased if it makes economic sense to do so. That is, more efficient vehicles will be purchased if the discounted payback from the fuel cost savings offsets the difference in price between a conventional petrol vehicle, and the alternative vehicle type within five years.
CSIRO used local and global price data to establish representative vehicle costs for each vehicle type in its Energy Sector Model. The difference in price between conventional petrol vehicles and other types of vehicles is expected to decline by around 50percent by 2049–50, with the exception of diesel vehicles, which have already achieved significant cost reductions. Representative vehicle costs for private road vehicles are outlined in AppendixC.