Tracking adaptation for an uncertain future:

WRI-IIED roundtable on long time horizons and uncertainty in adaptationM&E

Submitted on behalf of:

Heather McGray, World Resources Institute (WRI)

Juan Carlos Altamirano, World Resources Institute (WRI)

Ayesha Dinshaw, World Resources Institute (WRI)

Susannah Fisher, International Institute for Environment and Development(IIED)

Practitioners who monitor and evaluateadaptation to climate change face a number of challenges. However, these challenges are not unique to the context of adaptation and we have techniques and methods that can address some of these issues(Dinshaw et al. 2014).Practitioners also have access to new frameworks for adaptation that can help address uncertainty in adaptation interventions (Altamirano 2014).Nevertheless, two aspects of climate adaptation still elude good evaluation and pose very specific challenges. These are the long time horizons over which adaptation will be known to be successful (or not) and the uncertain nature of climate change and what this means for decision making and evaluationof these decisions in the future. The aim of this roundtable is to draw on a range of expert input on how these two challenges for monitoring and evaluation – long time horizons and the uncertainty inherent in climate change – might be addressed through innovative monitoring and evaluation frameworks. We will invite a range of participants with diverse expertise to give stimulating short inputs to support the broader discussion on these issues.

The key questions to be addressed are:

  • How can M&E account for the uncertainty that is inherent in long-term adaptation?
  • Do M&E methods for contending with uncertainty and/or long-time horizons need to be specific for a particular scale (fund / program / national level)?
  • How might the need to address long timehorizons and uncertainty be dealt with alongside pressures for shorter term evaluations and the need to demonstrate results?
  • How can M&E best support effective learning in the context of long time horizons and uncertainty? What best practice is there for using learning in long term or uncertain contexts?

The roundtable will use the following background papers to inform the discussion:

“Monitoring and Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation: Methodological Approaches” Dinshaw et al. 2014 – OECD working paper

“Uncertainty and Decision Making for Adaptation” Altamirano 2014 – WRI research note