Top Line Summary - Wales

TOP LINE SUMMARY - WALES

• Results are based on interviews with 750(weighted 286) members of the eligible electorate aged 18+. Interviews are distributed as follows:

• Interviews were carried out by telephonebetween 4th – 22nd May 2012

• A representative sample was interviewed, with quotas set by voting/not voting, age, gender and local authority area.

• The data has been weighted by election holding areas, age, gender, social class andwork status.

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to multiple responses, computer rounding or the exclusion of don’t knows/not stated.

• Results are based on numbers as shown at the head of each question answer set.

• Based on the full sample of 750and assuming a 95% confidence interval, data is assumed to be correct to within +/-3.6%.

• An asterisk (*) represents a value of less than one half or one percent, but not zero.

• Study undertaken by ICM on behalf of the Electoral Commission.

Hello, I am telephoning on behalf of ICM, the independent social research organisation. We are conducting a research project which requires us to talk to a representative sample of people throughout the country on issues that affect all people. We have selected your telephone number purely at random and would greatly appreciate your help for a few minutes to answer some simple questions.

IF RESPONDENT SOUNDS LIKE THEY WANT TO REFUSE SAY…..

For the purposes of our research project it is most important that we talk to a representative cross section of all people. So, your views are really important to us and the interview will only take a few minutes of your time.

IF RESPONDENT STILL SOUNDS LIKE THEY WANT TO REFUSE SAY….

If you cannot spare the time at the moment I would really appreciate it if we could call you back at your own convenience over the next few days. As I say your own views are very important to us.

QS1Can I start by checking your postcode? CHECK AGAINST PRE-CODED LIST

IF: Don’t know / CLOSE

QS2And can I confirm, what is the name of your local authority or council? CHECK AGAINST PRE-CODED LIST. PROMPT WITH COUNCIL NAMES WITHIN AREA IF NECESSARY.

IF: Don’t know / CLOSE

REgistration, turnout and voting

ask all

Q1As far as you know, is your name on the electoral register, that is, the official list of people who can vote, either where you are living now or somewhere else?

Base: 286
Yes – where living now / 92%
Yes – somewhere else/another address / 2%
No / 5%
Don’t know / 1%

Q2How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the procedure for getting your name on the list of those people who are registered to vote? Are you……READ OUT

Base:286
Very satisfied / 54%
Fairly satisfied / 30%
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied / 8%
Fairly dissatisfied / 1%
Very dissatisfied / 2%
Don’t know / 5%

Q3As you may know, on Thursday May 3rd there were/was …CATI: INSERT AS APPROPRIATE: English local council elections / Scottish local council elections / Welsh local council elections / London Mayor and Assembly elections / Mayoral elections in Salford and Liverpool and a city wide Mayoral referendum in ….CATI: City……. Many people have told us they didn’t manage to vote on 3rd May. How about you – did you manage to vote in the……READ OUT AS APPROPRIATE

BASE 4104 / Yes / No
OVERALL
ENGLISH ELECTION AREAS ONLY: English local council elections
WALES ONLY: Welsh local council elections / 49% / 51%
SCOTLAND ONLY: Scottish local council elections
LONDON ONLY: London Mayor and Assembly elections
SALFORD CITY COUNCIL ONLY: Salford Mayoral Election
LIVERPOOL CITY COUNCIL ONLY: Liverpool Mayoral Election
SPECIFIC LOCAL AUTHORITIES ONLY*:…CATI: XXXX Mayoral referendum

*specific local authorities holding referendums: location eligibility taken from sample file

Birmingham, Bradford, Bristol, Coventry, Doncaster, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Nottingham, Sheffield, Wakefield,

if non-voter (no) in all eligible elections/referedum at q3, ask:

Q4People had many reasons for not voting in the….elections/referendum…. Why did you not vote in the ..Q3 elections/referendum on 3rd May? DO NOT PROMPT

BASE: 146
Circumstances / 43%
I really intended to vote but circumstances on the day prevented me / 2%
I was away on 3rd May/voting day / 6%
I forgot / 8%
Lack of time/too busy/I was busy at work / 22%
I couldn’t get to the polling station/it was inconvenient / 4%
Medical/health reasons / 6%
Poor weather / *%
Administration / 11%
I wasn’t registered / 6%
Admin reason / 1%
I didn’t receive a polling card / 2%
I didn’t receive a postal vote/it arrived too late / *%
I didn’t know where my polling station was / *%
Elections/referendum not important / 12%
The elections (unspecified) weren’t important / 1%
Local council elections aren’t important / 1%
There was no point in voting because the local council can’t do very much/can’t change anything/has no power / 8%
Disinterested/no point / 15%
I couldn’t be bothered / 5%
I’m just not interested in politics / 5%
There was no point in voting because it was obvious who would win/my vote wouldn’t have made a difference to the outcome / 3%
Unopposed candidate / 3%
Referendum choices / 4%
I didn’t agree with either of the options on offer / 2%
I didn’t like the campaigners/campaigns weren’t inspiring / 2%
Parties/candidates / 10%
There was no point in voting because all the parties are the same / 3%
I didn’t like the candidates/parties/they didn’t represent my views / 4%
You just can’t trust politicians to keep their promises / 4%
No information/indecision/complicated / 11%
I didn’t get any information / 6%
I didn’t know enough about the different options / 3%
I couldn’t decide which way to vote / 2%
I didn’t know there was a referendum / 2%
Miscellaneous / 11%
I don’t vote / 4%
Religious reasons / 2%
Other / 6%
None of these/no reason / 1%
Don’t know / *%

IF VOTED, aSK:

Q5Did you vote on 3rd May…..MULTICODE OK

Base: 141
In person at a polling station / 74%
By post / 25%
By proxy IF NECESSARY SAY: (getting someone else to vote on your behalf) / 1%
Other / *%
Don’t know/can’t remember / *%

Q6People have many reasons for voting in elections and referendums. Why did you vote on Thursday 3rd May? What else?

BASE: 141
Civic responsibility reasons / 63%
It is important to vote/It is my civic duty/everyone should vote/It is my right to vote / 48%
I always vote / 17%
People fought to win the right to vote for me/others / 9%
To support my local community / 1%
To express my view / 45%
I wanted to have a say / 30%
If people don’t vote then you have no right to complain/have an opinion / 12%
Concerned about local issues / 6%
Because an important issue was at stake / 3%
To help create a change / 18%
To change the voting system / 1%
To get a change / 11%
Not happy with the government/to send a message to the government/local council / 8%
To help keep the status quo / 8%
To keep the voting system / 1%
Like/pleased with the government / 4%
I like/have faith in the person I voted for / 4%
Tactical reasons / 5%
To defeat/stop the other side from winning / 5%
Other reasons / 5%
I was urged/persuaded to vote by a family member/friend / *%
Because I was sent a ballot paper in the post / *%
Family/friend was standing / 2%
Other specify / 3%
None of these / no reason / *%
Don’t know / 1%

ASK ALL IN AREAS HOLDING …..elections/referendum

Q7How much, if anything, did you feel you knew about what ….ELECTION: ASK AS APPROPRIATE….….on 3rd May was about? Would you say you knew…READ OUT

Local council
Election
Base: 286
A great deal / 14%
A fair amount / 41%
Not very much / 30%
Nothing at all / 14%
Don’t know / *%

ASK ALL in appropriate areas

Q9To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? READ OUT. CODE ONE FOR EACH

Agree strongly / Tend to agree / Neither / Tend to disagree / Disagree strongly / DK
LOCAL COUNCIL AEAS ONLY:
I had enough information to be able to make an informed decision on how to vote in the English/Scottish/Welsh local council elections
BASE:286 / 30% / 34% / 7% / 12% / 16% / 1%

 ask all

Q10Generally speaking, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the procedure for voting in elections (IF MAYORAL REFERENDUM AREA: and referendums) in Great Britain? Are you…?

Base: 286
Very satisfied / 36%
Fairly satisfied / 43%
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied / 10%
Fairly dissatisfied / 5%
Very dissatisfied / 3%
Don’t know / 2%

IF FAIRLY/VERY DISSATISFIED AT Q10, ASK:

Q11Why do you say you were dissatisfied with the procedure for voting in elections (IF MAYORAL REFERENDUM AREA: and referendums)? WRITE IN

BASE: 24
Not enough information/media coverage 17%
The system is not fair 2%
Don’t trust them/don’t fulfil their promises 8%
Voting process should be available online / email 9%
Voting system should be more secure 6%
People didn’t understand the elections 2%
Everyone should vote/compulsory 1%
Not enough polling stations to choose from 6%
Disagree with FPTP 4%
Politicians don’t make themselves known 9%
Want PR 8%
Voting should be spread over a few days 3%
Need more options 1%
Many people didn’t get to vote/register 2%
Others 40% total
Don’t know 4%

ASK ALL

Q12How confident, if at all, are you that the …….ASK AS APPROPRIATE: ELECTION/REFERENDUM……was/were well run on 3rd May? Are you…READ OUT

Base: 286
Very confident / 33%
Fairly confident / 44%
Not very confident / 5%
Not at all confident / 4%
Don’t know / 15%

Q13Why do you say that you are…Q12 confident/not confident…..that the….. ASK AS APPROPRIATE: election/referendum was well run? WRITE IN

BASE: 244
Well organised 23%
Well publicised 12%
Voting system fair 13%
Tried and tested 10%
No negative feedback 4%
Lack of information 3%
Quick easy voting 6%
Trust the staff 3%
Accessible polling stations 6%
Good staff attitude 3%
Personal involvement 4%
Professionally conducted 1%
Received polling card ballot papers in good time 1%
Well canvassed 2%
Others 19%
None 1%
Don’t know 10%

polling stations

ASK ALL

Q14From what you have seen or heard or experienced, do you think that voting at the polling station / (SCOTLAND: polling place) on 3rd May was…READ OUT

BASE: 286
Very convenient / 48%
Fairly convenient / 26%
Neither convenient nor inconvenient / 9%
Fairly inconvenient / 6%
Very inconvenient / 2%
Don’t know / 9%

IF POLLING STATION VOTER AT Q5 (= 1), ASK:

Q15Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied were you with the process of voting at a polling station/place? Would you say…..READ OUT

BASE: 104
Very satisfied / 76%
Fairly satisfied / 21%
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied / 2%
Fairly dissatisfied / *%
Very dissatisfied / 1%
Don’t know / -

Q16Once you arrived at your polling station/place, how easy or difficult was it for you to get inside to vote?

BASE: 104
Very easy / 90%
Fairly easy / 8%
Neither easy nor difficult / *%
Fairly difficult / 2%
Very difficult / -
Don’t know / -

Q17Thinking back to when you went to vote at the polling station/place, how useful, if at all, was the help or support available from polling station/place staff on how to vote? Was it…READ OUT

BASE: 104
Very useful / 55%
Fairly useful / 14%
Not very useful / 1%
Not at all useful / 1%
Didn’t use them/need them / 28%
Don’t know / *%

Q18And again thinking back to when you went to vote at the polling station/place, how useful, if at all, were any written instructions on how to vote, such as a poster on display in the polling booth or guidance on the ballot paper(s)? Were they….READ OUT

BASE: 104
Very useful / 42%
Fairly useful / 20%
Not very useful / 4%
Not at all useful / 1%
Didn’t use them/need them / 32%
Don’t know / *%

Q19Thinking back to the atmosphere when you voted in the polling station/place, please say whether you agree or disagree with the following?

Agree strongly / Tend to agree / Neither / Tend to disagree / Disagree strongly / DK
It was chaotic
BASE:104 / 1% / *% / 1% / 7% / 91% / 1%
It was well ordered
BASE: 104 / 86% / 13% / - / *% / 1% / -
It was intimidating
BASE: 104 / 1% / 1% / 1% / 10% / 86% / 1%
It was safe
BASE: 104 / 92% / 6% / 1% / - / 1% / *%
It took too long to vote
BASE: 104 / 2% / 1% / 1% / 8% / 88% / 1%
It was well run by staff
BASE: 104 / 85% / 12% / 1% / 1% / 1% / 1%

voting by post

ASK ALL

Q20From what you have seen, heard or experienced, do you think that voting by post for the 3rd May election (IF APPROPRIATE: and referendum) was…READ OUT

BASE: 286
Very convenient / 40%
Fairly convenient / 20%
Neither convenient nor inconvenient / 14%
Fairly inconvenient / 3%
Very inconvenient / 2%
Don’t know / 20%

ASK ALL POSTAL VOTERS (Q5 = 2)

Q21Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied were you with the process of voting by post? Would you say………..READ OUT

BASE: 35
Very satisfied / 87%
Fairly satisfied / 12%
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied / 1%
Fairly dissatisfied / -
Very dissatisfied / -
Don’t know / -

Q22How easy or difficult was it to understand what you had to do in order to complete and return your postal vote(s)? Would you say….READ OUT

BASE: 35
Very easy / 78%
Fairly easy / 17%
Neither easy nor difficult / 2%
Fairly difficult / 1%
Very difficult / 2%
Don’t know / -

Q23Thinking back to when you voted by post, how useful, if at all, were any written instructions on how to vote and return your vote, such as guidance on the ballot paper? Were they…..READ OUT

BASE: 35
Very useful / 72%
Fairly useful / 26%
Not very useful / -
Not at all useful / 1%
Don’t know / 1%

BALLOT papers

ASK ALL VOTERS

Q24Some people said it was difficult to fill in the ballot paper(s) when voting in the 3rd May elections (IF APPLICABLE: and referendum). How easy or difficult did you find it to fill in the ballot paper(s) for the ….ASK FOR EACH Q3 ELECTION/REFERENDUM VOTED IN (CATI: ALWAYS ASK FOR REFERENDUM FIRST AT THIS QUESTION)……Was it…..

IF NECESSARY: By ‘fill in’ we mean place your vote on the form rather than decide which way to vote.

Very easy / Fairly easy / Neither / Fairly difficult / Very difficult / DK
WALES ONLY: Welsh local council elections / 84% / 14% / 2% / *% / 1% / *%

FOR EACH ‘DIFFICULT’ AT Q24, ASK:

Q25Why do you think it was difficult to fill in the ……Q24……ballot paper? WRITE IN

INSIGNIFICANT BASES TOO SMALL TO REPORT

electoral fraud

ASK ALL

Q29What do you understand by the term “electoral fraud”? WRITE IN

BASE: 286
Someone using someone else’s vote 28%
Cheating/corruption/vote rigging 18%
Ballot stuffing 11%
Deliberately miscounting votes 10%
When people not eligible but still do vote 6%
Spoiling/tampering of ballot papers 5%
Misuse of postal voting 5%
People being intimidated
Casting a vote where not registered 1%
Missing/disposing of votes 2%
Others 6%
None 9%
Don’t know 24%

Q30aAs you may know, there are many types of fraud such as benefit fraud and insurance fraud. How much do you feel you understand about electoral fraud in the UK, that is fraud relating to elections and voting? Would you say….READ OUT…

BASE: 286
A lot / 6%
A little / 34%
Hardly anything at all / 33%
Nothing at all / 26%
Don’t know / 1%

Q30bWhich, if any of the following do you think are forms of electoral fraud? READ OUT. CODE ANY ‘YES’

BASE: 286
Someone pretending to be another person so they can vote more than once to influence the election result / 94%
Someone making another person vote for a party or candidate they don’t want to vote for / 80%
A person registering to vote under somebody else’s name to get a mortgage / 79%
Party workers collecting postal ballots from door to door / 69%
A candidate making false statements about another candidate in a campaign pamphlet / 60%
Ballot papers being sent to the wrong address / 49%
A candidate that breaks a campaign promise once elected / 49%
None of them / 1%
Don’t know / 1%

Q30cAnd which of the things you said are electoral fraud most concerns you? READ OUT ALL ANSWERS GIVEN AT Q30b

BASE: 286
Someone pretending to be another person so they can vote more than once to influence the election result / 40%
A person registering to vote under a different name get a mortgage / 11%
Someone making another person vote for a party or candidate they don’t want to vote for / 11%
Party workers collecting postal ballots from door to door / 13%
A candidate that breaks a campaign promise once elected / 8%
A candidate making false statements about another candidate in a campaign pamphlet / 8%
Ballot papers being sent to the wrong address / 1%
None of them / 4%
Don’t know / 4%

Q31In general, when it comes to being safe from fraud and abuse, would you say that voting is….

BASE: 286
Very safe / 21%
Fairly safe / 58%
Neither safe nor unsafe / 9%
Fairly unsafe / 4%
Very unsafe / 2%
Don’t know / 5%

Q32In general, when it comes to being safe from fraud and abuse, would you say that voting at a polling station (SCOTLAND: place) is…READ OUT

BASE: 286
Very safe / 41%
Fairly safe / 47%
Neither safe nor unsafe / 7%
Fairly unsafe / 2%
Very unsafe / 1%
Don’t know / 2%

Q33In general, when it comes to being safe from fraud and abuse, would you say that voting by post is…READ OUT

BASE: 286
Very safe / 16%
Fairly safe / 39%
Neither safe nor unsafe / 11%
Fairly unsafe / 17%
Very unsafe / 7%
Don’t know / 10%

Q34How much, if at all, do you think that electoral fraud took place at the …ASK AS APPROPRIATE: Q3 election/referendum…..on 3rd May? Would you say it happened a lot, a little, hardly at all or not at all?

BASE: 286
A lot / 4%
A little / 26%
Hardly at all / 34%
Nothing at all / 12%
Don’t know / 24%

IF A LOT/A LITTLE, ASK:

Q35Which one of the following best describes why you think electoral fraud or abuse took place on 3rd May? READ OUT. CODE ONE

BASE: 217
Identity fraud is on the increase / 36%
General impression that fraud is a problem / 29%
Postal voting is not secure / 12%
I saw stories in the media about electoral fraud / 13%
I heard from someone else that electoral fraud took place / 1%
I have first-hand experience of electoral fraud (on May 3rd) / 2%
Other / 4%
Don’t know / 4%

ASK ALL

Q36How effective, if at all, do you think each of the following would be in preventing electoral fraud taking place? Would you say….Randomise order

1 = Very effective

2 = Quite effective

3 = Not very effective

4 = Not effective at all

BASE: 286 / Very effective / Quite effective / Not very effective / Not effective at all / DK
People being required to show some form of identification at their polling station / 66% / 26% / 5% / 3% / 1%
People being required to sign in order to check their identity before being given their ballot paper in the polling station / 44% / 30% / 13% / 10% / 4%
Having independent observers in all polling stations / 38% / 32% / 17% / 9% / 3%
Stopping people voting for others by proxy IF ASKED: SAY: At the moment you can get someone else to make a ‘proxy’ vote on your behalf / 31% / 32% / 16% / 12% / 10%
Stop postal voting on demand IF ASKED, SAY: at the moment you can request a postal vote without giving a reason / 23% / 31% / 23% / 15% / 9%

IF “I HAVE FIRST-HAND EXPERIENCE OF ELECTORAL FRAUD” AT Q35, and/or ‘heard from soMeone else’ at q35, ask: