Workshop
“Diagnosis of Model Errors”
AGENDA
THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group and WGNE
Workshop
“Diagnosis of Model Errors”
ETH, Zurich - 7 to 9 July 2010
AGENDA
Workshop
“Diagnosis of Model Errors”
AGENDA
The aim of the workshop is discuss diagnostic techniques that could be used and should be developed to understand the origin of forecast errors and, therefore, aid model improvement.
The workshop will open with a series of presentations outlining:
The relevant dynamical and physical processes in polar regions, the mid-latitudes, subtropics and the tropics
Overviews of existing diagnostic techniques
The challenges, opportunities and strategies for model development
The second part of the workshop will be given over to discussions; discussion topics will compriseprocess modelling, diagnostic techniques, available data sets, follow-on projects and the establishment of a plan of work to include the preparation of a “status paper” and a timetable for future workshops.
Wednesday 7 JulyChair: / Istvan Szunyogh
14.00-14.10 / Welcome and local arrangements / David Burridge
Heini Wernli
14.10-14.30 / THORPEX update including information on the development of a THORPEX Polar Project and a WWRP/THORPEX/WCRP Seasonal Prediction project / David Burridge
14:30-15:00 / Scope of the workshop / Thomas Jung
15.00-15.30 / Polar processes and forecast error / Ayrton Zadra
15:30-16:00 / Mid-latitude processes and forecast error / Heini Wernli
16.00-16.30 / Coffee break
16:30-17:00 / Using observational experiments to isolate dynamical processes and deficiencies in their representation by models. / John Methven
17.00-17.30 / Local partitioning the three-dimensional overturning circulation in the tropics and the connection to the Hadley and Walker circulations / Michael Reeder
17:30-18:00 / Tropical processes and forecast error / Mitch Moncrieff
18.00-18.30 / Errors in parameterizations of clouds and convection / Joao Teixeira/Craig Bishop
19.30- / Workshop dinner “Restaurant Linde Oberstrass”
Thursday 8 July
Chair: / Heini Wernli
08.30-09:00 / Preliminary results from the Community-wide Consultation on Model Evaluation and Improvement / Martin Miller
09.00-09.30 / Developments and challenges in model development / Andy Brown
09.30-10.00 / Activities and views of the WGNE/WGCM metrics panel and WGCM / Veronika Eyring
10:00-10:30 / Systematic errors in climate models / Mojib Latif
10.30-11.00 / Coffee break
10.30-11.00 / Initial tendency diagnostics / Mark Rodwell
11.00-11.30 / Applications of the initial tendency technique and scale-dependent verification / Daisuke Hotta
11.30-12.00 / Transpose AMIP / Keith Williams
12:00-13:30 / Lunch break
13:30-14.00 / Model error diagnosis across time scales / Sean Milton
14.00-14.30 / Diagnosing NCEP GFS forecast errors / Fanglin Yang
14:30-15:00 / Model error diagnosis at Météo-France / Marie Boisserie/Philippe Arbogast
15:15-16:00 / Coffee break
16.00-17:30 / Discussion: General diagnostics
How to diagnose prediction error?
What are the relevant processes and how can they be identified?
What is holding us back?
What areas of research need to be further developed?
Observational requirements / Lead by Martin Miller and ThomasJung
Friday 9 July
08:30-09:30 / Discussion: Future activities
Follow-on projects
How do we establish a community (future meetings, sessions and conferences etc.)? / Lead by Andy Brown and Heini Wernli
09:30-10:15 / Recommendations
To WWRP and THORPEX
To WCRP
To current and future activities - for example to TNAWDEX)
Legacy of the meeting / Lead by David Burridge and Gilbert Brunet
10:15-10:45 / PDP-WGNE workshop on stochastic
parametrizations / Lead by Istvan Szunyogh
10.45-11.30 / Coffee break
11.30-13.00 / Workshop summary and final discussion / Organisers
13.00 / Close / Thomas Jung