DECLARER PLAY TECHNIQUES - I
The next few weeks or more will be focused on Declarer Play.
The Table of Contents from my 121-page Declarer Techniques book was included in your March 9handout (it’s also at the end of this Reading) so you can see the 30+ Declarer Play Techniques that existand where to find themin my book. You can download itfrom our/2016 site if you want toread it online; not necessarily to printall 121 pages. Of course, there’s no way we’re going to cover all those Declarer Play topics in what’s left of this Season: it was an entire Season’stopic a while back.(Items without page numbers will be covered in class this Season.)
We will be looking at basic Declarer Play Planning and an introduction to the most fundamental Declarer Play skills. Count, Count, Count is of course the highestpriorityDeclarer skill as it is in every phase of Duplicate, but there area few basic Declarer Play skills you must have . . . and those are what we’re going to look atstarting this week.
We’ll first look at Distribution – what I call “Split Odds”, which is an understanding about how defenders’holdings in a suit might be distributed: 4 – 3? 3 – 3? 4 – 2? 2 – 2? etc. It’s the 2nd most important Declarer Skill you need to know well after counting everything. Even if it fails on anyone hand, it will fail for all other Declarersof that hand as well, so you haven’tlost anything: that’s a good thing - “lose but still get an average on a board”. Sound good? Win on every hand? No. But winthe majority of 189 hands you play in the next year? Yes. That’s why it’s so basic, like counting.
If you hold 8 Diamonds between your hand and the dummy, split 5 – 3, how are the opponent’s 5 Diamonds likely to be split? There’s no “one way” or “always” answer” or “guaranteed way” to know,of course. But if you know the odds forsuch questions - and they are quite predictable - thenin the long runyou’re going to beat other Declarers who don’t know what the odds are, or choose not to use them in Declarer Play. “Know and Go with the Odds” is a soundDeclarer winner.
One of the other things we’ll learn earlyis that Finesses are the last thing you should look for; not the first thing in your Declarer Plan. Why? A Finesse is a 50% odds play, right? Wouldn’t you rather have a 68% odds chance?
And evenif 68%play fails sometimes, you may still have the 50% odds Finesse available. Which makes more sense? Successful Declarer Play is based on a Sequenceof plays over the whole 13 tricks, starting with your best chances. Take your best chances for extra tricks in the right sequence, with Finesses generally being last.
Next week and in weeks ahead, we’ll look at Hand Evaluation and Dangerous Opponents and Suit Establishment, at least.
“Split Odds” Estimating:
In the table below is everything you will ever need to know about “Split Odds”. (It’s also called Percentages or Suit Distribution).The odds don’t add up to 100% in each cell because I have left out 10% or lower odds splits to make it simpler. Later, I’ll reduce it all to one sentence.
DISTRIBUTION of DEFENDERS’ CARDS2 cards will split
1 – 1 52%
2 – 0 48% /
3 cards will split
2 – 1 78%
3 – 0 22% /
4 cards will split
3 – 1 50%
2 – 2 40 %
5 cards will split
3 – 2 68%
4 – 1 28% /
6 cards will split
4 – 2 48%
3 – 3 36% /
7 cards will split
4 – 3 62%
5 – 2 36%
To be certain you understand exactly what this table is telling you, look at the cell that says
“5cards will split” (between defenders’hands). If defenders hold 5 Clubs, however they split, you hold 8 Clubs. If yours are split 4 – 4, there’s no chance for more than 4 tricks, unless they are trump, naturally. But if they’re split 5 – 3, how many tricks might you take? 5 maybe?
“3 – 2 (68%)” means there will be 3 Clubs in one defender’s hand and 2 Clubs in the other defender’s hand about 68% of the time. Not 100%, but 68%, which are great odds. They will be 4 – 1 about 28% of the time – a little over 1/4 of all 5-card split hands. And they could be split 5 - 0, but the odds of that are so small you don’t have to consider it.
I have emphasized high percentage splits by boldingthe top split odds in each box. Do you see any pattern to help you memorize this table ASAP? There is one clear pattern: look at the odd-numbered holdings of3 or 5 or 7 cards. Those “split odds” are, respectively, 78%, 68% and 62% in favor of “as close to even as possible”. Odd card distributions split as evenly as possible, with odds of at least 62%. Now look at even numbered splits: 4 cards and 6 cards. Evencard distributions split unevenly about 50% of the time (3 – 1 or 4 – 2) and they split evenly 36% to 40% of the time(2 – 2 or 3 – 3). (Let’s call that 38% to simplify remembering it.) But 38% vs. 50% isn’t exactly terriblydifferent odds. Go for 38% odds when there’s no better odds elsewhere. Don’t think they will split evenly most of the time: it’s not true, but, once again, all declarers playing the hand will have the same issues.
Split Odds when there has been opponent bidding.
When defenders bid, you know specific things about Shape and HCP in the bidders’ hand. If East opens 1♠ and you declare in Hearts, are 7 missing Spades “split” 4 – 3 as our table indicates? Of course not. East has at least 5 Spades, so the “Split Odds Table” is off in Spades, and therefor probably in other suits as well. Don’t use it blindly: Count!
Summary: Odd numbers of defender cards split close to even most of the time and Even numbers split not evenly about half of the time and evenly about 38% of the time. Remember this one sentence and you know what the whole table says.
Some good news: “Split odds” are often cumulative, meaning you can add the odds together with two different plays to maximize how many tricks you might take. An example:
Suppose you and dummy hold 7 Hearts, split 5 – 2, including the ♥Ace, ♥King and ♥Queen. That means defenders hold 6 Hearts. Since that’s an even number, your odds of a 3 – 3 split are only about 38% to pick up all 5 Heart tricks by just playing them off the top. So what? What if you need only4 Hearts tricks to make your contract, not all 5?
Remembering the odds(38%)for an 3 – 3 splitof 6 cardsalso remember that you have an additional 48% odds of a 4 – 2 split. If you only need 4 Heart tricks, not 5, to make your contract, what are your total odds of winning 4 Heart tricks? An even 3 – 3 Heart split gives you all 5 tricks, plus the 4 – 2 Heart split gives you additional 48% odds to take 4 Heart tricks, for total 84%odds to take your 4 Heart tricks. How does 84% odds of taking 4 Heart tricks sound? Sounds like a winner to me.
But there’s another vital factor you must consider for safely collecting at least 4 Heart tricks.
Entries. If you have a clear side entry to the 5 Heart hand to collect the 5th Heart trick, you are safe. But if you only need 4 Heart tricks to make your contract and don’t have a safe side entry for the 5th Heart, you should duck an early Heart trick (e.g., lose the first one deliberately) to virtually guarantee 4 Heart tricks with84% odds. Fun!
There are other common split cases, if you are conscious of cumulative possibilities.
Often, you have 9 trumps, missing the Queen. The “Split Odds” table shows 40% odds for a
2 – 2 split, dropping the Queen, and 50% odds for a 3 – 1 split. But bridge books say “9 ever; 8 never” meaning play the Ace and King to play for the drop of the Queen under the Ace or King; don’t try a finesse: Why is that with only 40% odds for a 2 – 2 split?
Because this is not an issue about odds for any4-card split: you are looking for one specific card – the trump Queen. So, of the 4 missing cards, as you see in the table, you have 40% odds of a
2 – 2 split plus you have the possibility of the Queen being a singleton in a 3 – 1 split.
This is an extra 1/4 of 50%, for total odds of at least 52.5 %. So, go ahead and play “9 ever; 8 never” confidently. This is why bridge books say “9 Ever; 8 Never”, even though they don’t explain why. 52.5% isn’t “always” or “usually”, but it’s a good bit better than 40% odds, right?
But now you know why technically and logically.
Problems onWhat Are the Odds? - How would you go about playing these hands?
Now that you now know all about Percentages of Splits of defenders’ cards, (“Split Odds”), how should you plan the Play of these hands? Answers follow.
1 / ♠ 74♥ A64
♦ 9653
♣T742 / 2 / ♠ J52
♥432
♦A84
♣9765 / 3 / ♠AT
♥762
♦743
♣98652 / 4 / ♠AQ532
♥842
♦954
♣T8
4 Spades, ♥K lead / 4 Hearts, ♦Q lead / 3 NT, ♠3 lead / 3 NT, ♥3 lead
♠ AQJT98
♥ 95
♦ AQJ
♣ AQ /
♠AQ
♥AQJT97
♦K97
♣A3 /
♠Q5
♥AKQ5
♦AQ86
♣AKQ /
♠74
♥A65
♦AJT
♣AKQJ9
5 / ♠ AK743
♥ 652
♦ 54
♣982 / 6 / ♠876
♥93
♦A92
♣A8654 / 7 / ♠74
♥AQ4
♦K9652
♣873 / 8 / ♠7642
♥983
♦AQJT
♣52
3 NT, ♥K lead / 3 NT, ♥Q lead / 3 NT, ♠8 lead / 6 Spades, ♥Q lead
♠ 62
♥ A743
♦ AKT9
♣ AKQ /
♠AJ
♥AK
♦K8764
♣9732 /
♠AQ3
♥K76
♦Q84
♣KQJT
East opened 1 Spade; you overcalled 1NT. /
♠AKQT8
♥A
♦73
♣AQJT9
9 / ♠ AQ
♥ J76
♦ Q643
♣AT72 / 10 / ♠AK7
♥7652
♦KJ3
♣KT9 / 11 / ♠T92
♥A53
♦7
♣AQT983 / 12 / ♠AQ3
♥742
♦86543
♣A9
6 Diamonds, ♣K lead / 5 Diamonds, ♠Q lead / 4 Spades; ♥K lead / 4 Spades; ♥Q lead
♠ J952
♥ AKQ
♦ AT8752
♣ - /
♠-
♥KQ
♦AQT9764
♣8532 /
♠AKJ87
♥T64
♦T82
♣KJ /
♠KJT864
♥A65
♦AQ
♣72
Answers:
♠ 74♥ A64
♦ 9653
♣T742 / #1.
You have only one Entry to the dummy, so you can take only one of the 3 available finesses – Spades, Diamonds or Clubs. Which do you take? Does it matter? Yes. CLUBS first.
Why?If it succeeds, you’ll have no Club loser; if another finesse works, you’ll still have a loser in that suit because of lack of entry. /
♠ J52
♥432
♦A84
♣9765 / #2.
Again, a loser in each suit and only one entry to dummy.
But, as usual, a finesse is the wrong plan anyway. Win the ♦K in hand. Play the ♠A and ♠Q, forcing out the ♠K.
Then, after drawing 1 trump, go to the ♦A and pitch a Diamond or Club loser on the ♠J.
4♠; ♥K / 4♥; ♦Q lead
♠ AQJT98
♥ 95
♦ AQJ
♣ AQ /
♠AQ
♥AQJT97
♦K97
♣A3
♠AT
♥762
♦743
♣98652 / #3.
Your Spade stopper is gone on the 2ndtrick, so what’s left? You are in the dummy only once, with only 8 winners. Do you play on Hearts to split or take the Diamond finesse? You can’t do both because of Entries.
Odds of a 3 – 3 Heart split are 36%; while odds of the Diamond finesse working are 50%, so take the finesse. /
♠AQ532
♥842
♦954
♣T8 / #4.
Duck the 1st two Hearts and (hopefully) see them split
4 – 3, so you have only 1 more Heart loser. Do finesses in Spades and Diamondshave equal odds? Yes. You only need to win 1 of 2 Diamond finesses for 9 tricks. The odds of that happening are 3 to 1 in your favor. Only if this West has both the ♦K and ♦Q will you lose both finesses.
3 NT, ♠3 lead / 3 NT, ♥3 lead
♠Q5
♥AKQ5
♦AQ86
♣AKQ /
♠74
♥A65
♦AJT
♣AKQJ9
♠ AK743
♥ 652
♦ 54
♣982 / #5.
8 winners with 2 chances for another trick:if the Spades split
3 – 3 or you can finesse twice in Diamonds.
Again, you only need to win only 1 of 2 Diamond finesses for 9 tricks. The odds of that happening are 3 to 1 in your favor:75% odds. Only if West has both the ♦J and ♦Q will you lose both. /
♠876
♥93
♦A92
♣A8654 / #6.
There’s only 6 top winners, meaning you need 3 more tricks.
There’s chances in Diamonds and in Clubs, but only in Clubs is there a chance for 3 extra tricks, if they should split 2 – 2. Even if Diamonds split 3 – 2, you’ll still be short a trick, even though a 3 – 2 Diamond split has higher odds(68%) than a
2 – 2 (40%) Club split.Take it.
3 NT, ♥K lead / 3 NT, ♥Q lead
♠ 62
♥ A743
♦ AKT9
♣ AKQ /
♠AJ
♥AK
♦K8764
♣9732
♠74
♥AQ4
♦K9652
♣873 / #7. East opened 1 Spade; you bid 1NT and partner went to 3 NT. West has ? HCP?
You have 8 top tricks and 8 Diamonds with the ♦K and ♦Q.
East has the ♦AJx so don’t try to “set up Diamonds”. Instead, lead low from dummy toward your ♦Q. If East takes her ♦A, you’ll have 4♦’s, 2♠’s and 3♥’s. If she ducks the low Diamond, take the ♦Q and start Clubs for 9 tricks. /
♠7642
♥983
♦AQJT
♣52 / #8.
Win the lead, collect trump in 3 rounds, (90$ odds) and then what? Maybe lose 2 minor suit finesses? Certainly possible.
But there’s a 100% Play. Play the ♣A and more Clubs until the ♣K wins. Take the ♦A and ruff a Heart. You then have 3 more Club winners, where you pitch dummy’s 3 Diamond losers. Your Diamond loser is then trumped in dummy.
3 NT, ♠8 lead / 6♠, ♥Q lead
♠AQ3
♥K76
♦Q84
♣KQJT /
♠AKQT8
♥A
♦73
♣AQJT9
♠ AQ
♥ J76
♦ Q643
♣AT72 / #9. Missing the ♦K, ♦J and ♦9. With no Spade loser, there‘s a safety play that will guarantee no more than 1 trump loser. Ruff the ♣Klead and take the Spade finesse. If it wins, lead a trump from dummy and cover any honor East plays, or the ♦T over her ♦9. If it loses, bang down the ♦A, hoping for a 33% chance ofa singleton ♦K. /
♠AK7
♥7652
♦KJ3
♣KT9 / #10. Pitching 2 Clubs on Spades, you could still lose 2 Clubs and the ♥Ace. So Jettison (pitch) both Hearts for 1 less loser. Collect trump (2 rounds = 78%) then lead a Club, covering any honor from West. If it loses to East, repeat the finesse, giving you 3 to 1 chances of success. 75% odds of at most 2 Club losers.
6 ♦, ♣K / 5 ♦, ♠Q
♠ J952
♥ AKQ
♦ AT8752
♣ - /
♠ -
♥KQ
♦AQT9764
♣8532
♠T92
♥A53
♦7
♣AQT983
♠AKJ87
♥T64
♦T83
♣KJ / #11.
Win the ♥A and ♠A, then a Spade finesse, losing 2 Hearts, a Diamond and the ♠Q? Better is to play the ♠A and ♠K, hoping for the 68% 3 – 2 Spade split but assuming the ♠Q doesn’t drop.
Then play Clubs, hoping for 1 or more Heart pitches before the ♠Q holder ruffs in to collect another Heart winner. The odds of a 3 – 2 Club split are 68%. /
♠AQ3
♥742
♦86543
♣A9
♠KJT864
♥A65
♦AQ
♣72 / #12.
4 losers possible unless the 50% Diamond finesse wins. But take 1 Spade trick first because if they split 4 – 0, you must take the Diamond finesse.
You have 7 Diamonds; they have 6. Any 3 – 3 or 4 – 2 split will give you a discard of a loser. Odds? 48% for 4 – 2 plus 36% for 3 – 3 brings your odds to 84%.
DECLARER TECHNIQUES TABLE of CONTENTS
Technique / PageAdvanced Play Planning – Multiple Choices – Advanced Split Odds / 4
Blind Spot Avoidance / 8
Break a New Suit / 10
Blocking opponents play / 12
Unblocking / 14
Card Combinations / 16
Counting / 23
Cross Ruff / 26
Dangerous Opponent (in Class) / x
Dummy Reversal / 31
Deception / 34
Discovery / 37
Distribution - Percentages(AKA “Split Odds”) / 42
Elimination(AKA a “Strip Play”) / 46
Eliminating Safe Exit Cards / 50
Endplay / 52
Entry Management / 56
Establish a Suit (in Class) / x
Extreme Hand Patterns / 61
Finesse Avoidance / 64
Finesses / 73
Hand Evaluation (in Class) / x
Hold-Up (or Play a Duck or a Safety Play) / 80
Inference / 83
Jettison / 88
LOL – Loser on Loser / 90
Play a Duck(AKA a Safety Play) / 93
Play Planning Overview / 96
Reconciling the Count / 103
Ruff and Sluff / 104
Safety Play (See Play a Duck - above) / 93
Smother Play / 106
Strip (See Elimination - above) / 46
Squeeze / 109
Throw-In / 113
Trump Management / 115
Visualization / 120
Additional Declarer Terms / Terminology are on the next page.
Auxiliary Play Terms
Name / See Also / ExplanationBreak a Suit / Frozen Suit. / When a defender or declarer lead a “new” suit for the first time, it is usually a disadvantage to that party.
Brute Strength Tricks / HCP / Tricks won by high cards: Aces, Kings, etc.
Cutting Communications / Scissors Coup. / A Hold-Up* or other Technique that stops defenders from passing the lead by voiding a suit in dummy.
Equal Length Suit; e.g., Axx facing Kxx / End Plays.
Mirror Distribution.
Pancakes. / There are advantages for End Plays, as the play of the 3rd round can Eliminate the suit on one trick. There are disadvantages in other hands where it means there’s no opportunity for additional Length Strength Tricks or ruffs: a Mirror Image hand.
Exit Card / Throw-In.
End-Play. / A “safe Exit card” is one that is safe for a defender to lead. An “unsafe Exit Card” is one that is advantageous to Declarer. Defenders should keep safe exit cards but good Declarers will exhaust them.
Inevitable Loser / With Axx in one hand and Kxx in the other, you have a loser in that suit, sooner or later, unless you can get a pitch in one hand or the other.
Length Strength Tricks / Shape / Tricks won by lower cards in long suits as opposed to Brute Strength – the 5th Club or the 13th card of a suit.
Mirror Image Distribution / Flat Hands.
Pancake. / When suits in hand and in Dummy are all of the same length – 3 facing 3, 4 facing 4, etc. Very Difficult.
Pancake / Hand Pattern.
Mirror
Distribution. / The dreaded “flat hand”. Two 4-3-3-3 hands are the most extreme example. Only Brute Strength tricks are available, as there’s no Length Strength or Ruff tricks.
Positional Strength / “Upwind” vs. “Downwind” position in the rotation. / Since we play tricks in clockwise rotation, a ♣Queen “downwind” (following) the ♣King has additional strength as she can’t be captured by the ♣King; similarly, a ♣Queen “upwind” (in front of) the ♣King, is weakened, HCP-wise, by her position.
Safety Play / Play a Duck. / Not winning a trick that you could win. Tactical.
Strip / Elimination. / To exhaust one or more hands of all the cards in a suit.
Tempo / Whoever wins a trick gets to lead to the next trick; an advantage related to Timing and Momentum.
Trading Losers / E.G. Lose a Club instead of a Heart. / Accepting a loser in a suit where it is not necessary, in order to lose a loser in a suit that would be dangerous.
Cutting defender communications is a good reason.
Trump Strength Tricks; Trump Length Tricks. / Length Strength;
Brute Strength, Positional Strength. / Trumps are, of course powerful by definition. But Brute Strength trump tricks can draw all defender’s trumps, thereby keeping absolute control with Declarer, and Trump Length Tricks win with little cards.
Pg. 1 © Bob McConnell, 2017