The LOOP GROUP

The LOOP GROUP

‘Loop Group’ was formed in the Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, but is now an electic, informal association of Corvallis-area scientists, dedicated to the study of ecological systems using qualitative mathematical models. We call ourselves the Loop Group because the type of models we examine has been called loop analysis, although it is more formally known as graph theory. We believe that qualitative models will stimulate ecosystem management because reasonable descriptions of systems behavior can be attained without quantitative parameterization. This means that good descriptive research can provide the basis for the model of the community of interest. We believe that this is consonant with the principles of Adaptive Management in that we can determine risk and uncertainty through extensive simulation of partially specified systems. We can then conduct tests model predictions as hypotheses (i.e., use management policy as an instrument of experimentation) and challenge the system. It is not surprising then that we are also interested in Bayesian Engines. The phrase is becoming hackneyed, but our approach is an elegant way to “learn by doing”. We do not believe that qualitative modeling will replace quantitative models of population and community dynamics; rather, we think that qualitative models will be valuable complementary tools which will guide the direction of smaller, more focused quantitative models. As such, our objectives have been three-fold:

-development of relevant mathematical theory and computer programs on the community matrix

-application of theory in various fields, ranging from ecology, fisheries management, health, business and military systems

-instruction and teaching of basic and advanced mathematical ecology

Members: We have been meeting on a weekly basis for approximately 3years. Regular attendees over this period:

Hiram Li (F&W)

Philippe Rossignol (F&W)

Jane Jorgensen (Jambrosi, Inc)

Gonzalo Castillo (NMFS)

Hans Luh (Ent)

Jeff Dambacher (ODFW)

Selina Heppell (F&W)

Gabriela Montaño-Moctezuma (F&W)

Saud Al-Jufaili (F&W)

Michael Liu

Peter Bayley (F&W)

Judith Li (F&W)

Activities:

Two Modeling Workshops –Application Of Qualitative Modeling To Problems Of Ecosystem Management. Sponsored by the Biological Resources Division of U.S.G.S., Andrews Forest, OR. (March, and October 2001).

Natural Resource Scientists from across the United States were invited to learn about qualitative mathematical modeling and its applications. Lectures and tutoring of 20 Lectures were Presented by Philippe Rossignol, Jeff Dambacher, Jane Jorgensen, Hans Luh, Selina Heppell, Gabriela Montaño-Moctezuma, and Hiram Li

Teaching

ENT 591/691 Qualitative Modeling Course (since 1992). Currently: ENT 591/FW599 Essential Models in Ecology (instructors: McEvoy, Rossignol, Heppell, Luh)

ENT/MTH/FW 268 Mathematical Ideas for Biologists (L. Murphy & P. Rossignol)

Professional Meetings:

1997 International Society for Environmental Epidemiology, Taipei, Taiwan, August
Rossignol, A. M. and P. A. Rossignol: Qualitative analysis using a PC-based symbolic processor

Society for Conservation Biology, Univ. Victoria, B.C.
Gresswell, R., H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol: Assessing ecological risk of invasion in Yellowstone Lake Northwest Mosquito and Vector Control Association, Kennewick, WA, October

Entomological Society of America, Nashville, TN, December Rossignol, P. A. Sentinel animals for arbovirus monitoring (invited presentation)

Conference: Quantitative Insect Ecology: Ecological Theory and Entomological Empiricism.

Rossignol, P. A. Epidemiological theory and disease spread by arthropods (Invited presentation)

Rossignol, P. A. and X. Li. On the use of sentinel animals

1998American Fisheries Society Oregon Chapter, Sunriver, OR, February
Castillo, G., H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol. Neutral stability of a benthic community as a buffer to biological invasions
Dambacher, J., G. Castillo, G. Montano, R. Gresswell, H. Li and P. A. Rossignol. Qualitative modeling of fish communities: Applications toward ecosystem management

Annual Meeting of the North American Benthological Society, University of Prince Edward Island, Canada, June
Li, H.W., G. Castillo, R. Gresswell, J. Dambacher and P. Rossignol. Risk analysis of exotic invasions using qualitative mathematical analysis

16th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium: Ecosystem Considerations in Fisheries Management. Anchorage, Alaska. September-October
Dambacher, J., G. Castillo, G. Montaño-Moctezuma, H. Li and P. Rossignol. Qualitative modeling of fish communities: Applications toward ecosystem management

1999129th Meeting of the American Fisheries Society, Charlotte, NC
Li, H, W., J. Dambacher, R. Gresswell, D. A. Beauchamp, J. R. Ruzycki and P. Rossignol. Stephen Forbes, risk analysis and pests in trout systems
J. M. Dambacher, H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol. Use of qualitative modeling to assess and predict effects of harvest on multispecies communities

2000 TheTruth is the Whole: A Symposium in Celebration of the Unity and Dynamic Complexities of Life - Festschrift in Honor of the 70th Birthday of Richard Levins, Cambridge, MA.
P. A. Rossignol and J. M. Dambacher Theoretical limits to qualitative and quatitative analyses of communities (Invited presentation)

Tenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade. Session of Qualitative Models in Ecosystem Management and Research, Corvallis, OR
P. A. Rossignol. Qualitative modeling: theory and practice (Invited presentation)

J.M. DAMBACHER. Qualitative modeling of multispecies fisheries: putting humans into the equation (Session Chair)

H.W.LI. Cultural vs. ecological values governing natural resource management: lessons from qualitative food webs (Invited presentation)

G. Montaño-Moctezuma. Reconstructing community interactions in sea urchin reserves.

2001Oregon Chapters American Fisheries Society & The Wildlife Society – Joint Annual Meeting, Portland, OR. Dambacher, J. M., H. Li and P. A. Rossignol. Historical reconstruction, through qualitative modeling, of the effects of exotic fish introductions in Tenmile Lakes, Oregon
Castillo, G., H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol.Distribution, trophic role, and community impacts of introduced species in two Oregon estuaries

Risk Assessment for Invasive Species Workshop (EPA-Ecol. Soc. Amer.), Las Cruces, New Mexico.
Rossignol, P. A. et al. Rethinking the diversity-stability paradox

2002 CIMRS-NMFS research meeting. Hatfield Marine Research Center, Newport, OR
P.A. Rossignol. The turnover matrix: A novel tool in community theory (Invited presentation)

Degree programs: (get thesis titles)

M.Sc. (Ent)Aaron Kimo Morris; graduated 1997 (advisor: P. A. Rossignol): A Model of Trophic Evolutionary Pathways.

M.Sc. (Ent)Israel Duran; graduated 1998 (advisor: P. A. Rossignol); Stability and Complexity: A Reappraisal of the Competitive Exclusion Principle

Ph. D. Pub. H.)Jane Jorgensen graduated 1997 (advisor: A. M. Rossignol); Strategic Modeling of Sustainable Food Supply Systems.

Ph.D. (F&W)Gonzalo Castillo graduated 1999 (advisor: Hiram Li), Benthic biological invasions in two temperate estuaries and their effects on trophic relations of native fish and community stability

Ph.D. (F&W)Jeff Dambacher graduated 2001, (advisor: H. W. Li) Qualitative Analysis of the Community Matrix.

Ph.D. (F&W)Gabriela Montaño-Moctezuma; graduated 2002 (advisor: H. W. Li) Sea Urchin-Kelp Forest Communities in marine Reserves and Areas of Exploitation: Community Interactions, Populations, and Metapopulations Analyses.

Ph.D. (F&W)Saud Al-Jufaili (advisor: D. Sampson); expected 2002

Ph.D. (F&W)Jennifer Orme-Zavaleta (advisor: Dan Edge) expected 2004

Collaborations:

Arkoosh (NMFS), Freedman (Pub Health), Shields (F&W), Donald Baltz (Louisiana State University), Ed Chesney (Louisiana State University), Ken Rose (Louisiana State University), Lou Bender (New Mexico State University), Phil Gipson (Kansas State University), Ken Currens (Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission), James Parrish (University of Hawaii), Milo Richmond (Cornell University), Peter Moyle (University of California, Davis), Wayne Wurtsbaugh (Utah State University), Bill Matthews (University of Oklahoma), Edie Williams Matthews (University of Oklahoma), Keith Guido (Kansas State University), Tom Edwards (Utah State University)

Support:

Department of Defense-DARPA. Cyberecology. Information Extraction & Transport, Inc. (J.Jorgensen: Prime contractor), P. A. Rossignol (Prime scientist) and H. Luh (consultant). $1,600,000 (total costs) (April 2000-May 2002)

Hypoxia, nekton & habitat in the nGOM: modeling and retrospective analyses. Baltz, D.M., E.J. Chesney, H.W. Li and K.A. Rose .NOAA. Total project costs $198,499, OSU $14,000 (Oct 1, 2001-7/31/03)

Qualitative Models to Predict the Impacts of Exotic Species on Native Anurans. Li, H.W. and S. Heppell. USGS (Biological Resources Division) Amphibitan Monitoring Research Initiative. Total Project Costs $43, 062 (Sept. 1, 2002-August 31, 2003.

NMFS. Sea Lions. S. Heppell & G. Montaño-Moctezuma.

Products: Powerplay, MAPLE

Publications:

Dambacher, J. M., H. W. Li, J. O. Wolff and P. A. Rossignol. 1999. A parsimonious interpretation of the impact of food and predation on snowshoe hares. Oikos 84: 530-532

Dambacher, J. M., H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol. 1999. Historical reconstruction, through qualitative modeling, of the effects of exotic fish introductions in Tenmile Lakes, Oregon. Pp. 219-233 inODFW and NMF. Management Implications of Co-occurring Native and Introduced Fishes: Proceedings of the Workshop, Oct. 27-28, 1998, Portland, OR. 243 pp.

Li, H. W., P. A. Rossignol and G. Castillo. 1999. Risk analysis of species introduction: Insights from qualitative modeling. Chapter 30, pp431-447. In Nonindigenous Freshwater Organisms: Vectors, Biology, and Impacts. Claudi, R. and J. H. Leach (eds.). Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, FL.

Castillo, G., H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol. 2000. Absence of overall feedback in a benthic estuarine community: A system potentially buffered from impacts of biological invasions. Estuaries 23: 275-291

Jorgensen, J., A. M. Rossignol, C. J. Puccia, R. Levins and P. A. Rossignol. 2000. On the variance of eigenvalues of the community matrix: Derivation and appraisal. Ecology 81: 2928-2931

Dambacher, J. M., P. A. Rossignol., H. W. Li and J. M. Emlen. 2001. Technical Comment: Dam Breaching and Chinook Salmon Recovery. Science 291: 939a

Jorgensen, J., Rossignol, P., M. Takikawa and D. Upper. 2001. Cyberecology: Looking to ecology for insights into information assurance. DARPA Information Survivability Conference and Exposition; IEEE Computer Society, v. II. pp. 287-296

Dambacher. J. M. and P. A. Rossignol. 2001. The golden rule of complementary feedback.
ACMSIGSAM Bulletin (Special Interest Group in Symbolic & Algebraic Manipulation) 34: 1-9

Dambacher, J. M., H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol. 2002. Relevance of community structure in assessing indeterminacy of ecological predictions. Ecology 83: 1372-1385

Dambacher, J. M., H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol. 2002. Matrix methods for qualitative analysis of the community matrix. Ecological Archives E083-022-A1

Dambacher, J. M., H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol. 2002. Cramer’s rule and complementary feedback. Ecological Archives E083-022-A2

Dambacher, J. M., H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol. 2002. Maple V program commands for qualitative and symbolic analysis of the community matrix. Ecological Archives E083-022-S1

Submitted and in progress:

Dambacher, J. M., H. W. Li and P. A. Rossignol. Limits of prediction in the theory and practice of community ecology.
Submitted

Dambacher, J. M., R. Levins and P. A. Rossignol. Change in age structure in perturbed communities. To be submitted

Arkoosh, M. R., Johnson, L., Rossignol, P. A. and T.K. Collier. Predicting press perturbations on salmon To be submitted
communities: Implications for monitoring.

Rossignol, P. A., A. Guerry, J. F. Dambacher, S. Heppell, J. Jorgensen and H. W. Li. Rethinking the diversity-stability paradox. To be sumitted