(Final version)
8 October 2011
The Document Risk Assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina Regarding Natural or other Disasters provides an objective picture of the risks in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as those with cross-border effects.
This document was prepared by the Balkans Institute for Risk Assessment and Emergency Management in cooperation with the Ministry of Security of Bosnia and Herzegovina and in accordance with the requirements set by the UNDP BiH. Funding was provided by the EU.
The risk assessment identifies potential accidents and disasters and analyses their likelihood and possible effect on people, property, the environment, infrastructure and community. The process includes a risk assessment of historical and scientific data and evaluation by professional experts who are competent to analyse the risks in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There are three levels of analysis: (I) risk identification, (II) assessment of the probability of risks and their consequences and (III) a comparison between risks and recommendations on the current state of preventive measures.
Pursuant to Article 13 of the Framework Law on the Protection and Rescue of People and Property from Natural or Other Disasters (Official Gazette of BiH, No. 50/08) the Council of Ministers of BiH adopted the Risk Assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina Regarding Natural or Other Disasters.
In the preparation and implementation of this important document for the area of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in Bosnia and Herzegovina the participants and members of the professional team were actively involved through five plenary conferences. Through a resolution of the Council of Ministers of BiH the Interdepartmental Working Group for Risk Assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding Natural or Other Disasters was formed. The working group consists of seventy-four representatives drawn from state and entity ministries, the Department of Public Safety, the Government of Brcko District, experts from various fields, governmental and non-governmental and civil society organisations, and individual experts from DEMA.
The Risk Assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina is an essential document that will serve to create protection and rescue plans and development programmes for natural and other disasters within the relevant institutions and bodies of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Contents
I METHODOLOGY 5
II IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN HAZARDS 6
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS 6
EARTHQUAKES 8
LANDSLIDES 8
BIOHAZARDS 8
PLANT HEALTH AND LAND POLLUTION 9
FOOD SAFETY 9
INFECTIOUS ANIMAL DISEASES 10
FIRE 10
INDUSTRIAL HAZARDS 11
HAZARDS TO ROAD, RAIL, SEA AND AIR TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION 13
MAIL AND COMMUNICATIONS 15
NUCLEAR AND RADIOLOGICAL HAZARDS 15
OTHER HAZARDS 16
III RECCOMANDATIONS 17
HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS 17
EARTHQUAKES 17
BIOHAZARDS (Plant health, the pollution of agricultural land, protection of agricultural land, food safety and incidence of infectious animal diseases in Bosnia and Herzegovina) 18
FIRES 18
INDUSTRIAL HAZARDS 18
HAZARDS TO ROAD, RAIL, SEA AND AIR TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS 19
NUCLEAR AND RADIOLOGICAL HAZARDS 19
The basic document for the development of Risk Assessment is the methodology for Risk Assessment in Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding natural and other disasters.
I METHODOLOGY
· Through the methodology for conducting a Risk Assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina Regarding Natural or Other Disasters (hereinafter referred to as the “Methodology”) the following has been determined:
a) purpose, goals, scope, principles and definitions of terms relevant for making risk assessment;
b) method of preparation, content and those responsible of making risk assessments;
c) providing conclusions and recommendations for effective reduction of the risks of natural or other disasters.
• Risk assessment achieves the following goals:
a) identification of all types of the main hazards that can cause natural or other disasters in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as those with cross-border effects;
b) estimation of the level of exposure of people, property and critical infrastructure to all major hazards;
c) carry out, based on the assessment of the hazards and the vulnerability and exposure to hazards, a systematic scaling of the risks and location of the risks (risks within BiH or cross-border risks), estimation of their probability, causes and consequences expressed in terms of human, material and or financial losses.
• Participants in the development and updating of the Risk Assessment of BiH, in accordance with this methodology, were as follows:
a) ministries and other sectors of Bosnia and Herzegovina relevant to protection and rescue;
b) if necessary, entity agencies and institutions in coordination and through the entity civil
protection administrations;
c) relevant administrative bodies of Brcko District for protection and rescue;
d) relevant institutes, scientific and research institutions in BiH as well as such institutions and experts of partner countries and international organisations that have experience in preparing assessment documents and the expertise and necessary information in areas that include risk assessment.
· The main activities of Risk Assessment for Bosnia and Herzegovina are as follows:
a) list the general characteristics of the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, data sources and identification of the gaps;
b) identification and analysis of constant and potential hazards;
c) identification of hazards with cross-border effects;
d) perform a categorisation of target elements under the risk and assessment on exposure to hazards of critical elements and the level of exposure to hazards and their possible consequences for people, material goods and the potential financial losses;
e) evaluation and risk profiling, which includes making a historical catalogue of previous accidents together with submission of the appropriate type and scale of maps;
f) identification of high-risk areas, including those areas exposed to multiple hazards and areas where the expressed hazards and or high-risk hazardous activities threaten vulnerable communities;
g) identification of the options for disaster risk reduction (vulnerability and vital elements of the population exposed to hazards) of natural, manmade and other disasters, which includes an assessment of the capacity of vulnerable areas in terms of disaster risk reduction and response to the accident when the risks escalate;
h) making conclusions and recommendations.
Section A: The General part of the Assessment
In the general part of a Risk Assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina the following information is presented:
a) characteristics of the territory;
b) population;
c) layout and structure of houses and other buildings;
d) material and cultural property and the environment;
e) transport and other facilities and critical infrastructure installations.
Section B: Special part of the Assessment
1. Identification and analysis of the main hazards includes:
a) hydrometeorological hazards such as flooding, drought, hail, ice, snow-drifts, storm force winds and other hazards;
b) geological hazards like earthquakes;
c) geological hazards such as mudslides, landslides and ground subsidence;
d) biologic hazards such as epidemics of infectious diseases that effect humans, plants and animals as well as the origin of plant and animal foods;
e) open space fires/wildfires;
f) manmade accidents;
g) identification of those hazards with cross-border effects.
2. Analysis of Protection and Rescue
See sections C and D: “Conclusion” and “Additions”.
• The Council of Ministers of BiH established a working group for the Risk Assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
• Risk Assessment in BiH is subject to updating in accordance with any changes at least once every two years.
II IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN HAZARDS
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS
The Risk Assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina has determined that the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina is threatened by natural and other disasters that the human factor cannot influence. These threats can be separated into flooding and other natural causes belonging to the category of extreme weather conditions. The latter includes wind storms with the appearance of hail, snow and high snow, drought, frost and haze. Over the last ten years extreme events have become more frequent, as exemplified, amongst others, by the floods of 2004 and 2010; the droughts of 2000, 2003 and 2007; the intense daily rainfall during 2009 and 2010 and the appearance of strong and stormy wind and hail in 2005, 2006 and 2009.
Floods represent the greatest threat in the territory of BiH. In 2010 flooding was followed by extreme rainfall during the first nine months of the year. In most areas the annual average rainfall was exceeded. The enormous increase in rainfall was particularly expressed in the south-eastern part of Herzegovina, where floods were recorded towards the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010. In November 2010 there was between 500 l/m2 and 634 l/m2 of rain in Gacko, while the national average for that month was 200-300 l/m2.
Endangered areas can be protected most effectively by building protective structures and systems, such as dams, the regulation of riverbeds, circumferential drainage channels and embankments, pumping stations and multi-purpose reservoirs, while existing protective structures should be regularly and well maintained and upgraded as well as appropriately managed during floods. Hail represents a specific danger in those areas where the geographical location and climatic factors enable its frequency, especially in areas of intensive agricultural activity and densely populated areas. This is particularly the case with the area along the Sava River: Kozara and Potkozarje, Lijevče field, the Sava and Drina and Semberija.
When we compared the long-term data series from 1961 to 1990 with the series from 2000 to 2009 we observed a trend in the increase of the number of days with hail. This can be attributed to an increase in the average temperature and sudden temperature amplitudes in June and July 2003 and 2007 and in August 2009 and 2010. Hail caused considerable material damage during storms that spread to the towns of Bosanska Krupa in Bosanska Krajina, Capljina in Herzegovina and Gorazde in eastern Bosnia in 2007.
Heavy snow, high snow and high snow coverage can present serious difficulties for the conduct of normal daily activities. Through the available data, it is evident that those hydrometeorological stations at higher altitudes record the maximum height of snow coverage as well as the greatest frequency of days with a snow depth of ≥ 10, 30 and 50cm. The number of snow days ranges from approximately seventeen to forty-one, while January is the month with the most snow days (eleven). During the winter of 1999-2000 heavy snowfall swept most parts of the country and a state of natural disaster was declared in the northeast of Bosnia.
Drought is an unpredictable natural disaster that has a significant impact on agriculture, water management and other economic activities, as well as human activities and the environment. The greatest risk of drought in Bosnia and Herzegovina is in the northeast and southwest. In the last fifty years seven extremely dry periods have been recorded. In descending order, areas where droughts occur once every ten years are as follows: Mostar, Bijeljina, Bosanski Brod, Sarajevo, Livno, Banja Luka, and Bihac. In the area of northern Bosnia during the period spring - summer in 2003 there was a drought that was more intense than the one in 2000. A lack of rainfall in the summer of 2003 caused the hydrological drought, which was manifested in a reduction in surface and ground water supplies.
Wind storms are a common companion to disasters caused by lightning, when rainfall is intense heavy and often with hail; this often causes major damage to property, agricultural and other buildings and endangers traffic and human life. Storms are possible in all seasons of the year, but they usually happen during the colder part of the year. Anticyclonic storms are characterised by wind gusts from 30 to 37 m/s, while winds over 17.2 m/s are registered between five and ten times per year. The maximum wind speed of 44 m/s occurs, on average, once every fifty years.
To create a basis for future development planning it is necessary for the hydrometeorological institutions to provide high quality scientific research and development. This will enable them to improve their work in the areas of time monitoring, analysis and forecasting, climatology, hydrology and agrometeorology, forecasting and climate modelling and develop the type of modern early warning system that already exists within the European meteorological community. It is also necessary to work on technical and technological development, professional and scientific development and on legal and legislative regulation.
EARTHQUAKES
The territory of BiH is seismically one of the most active parts of the Balkan Peninsula. In addition to natural earthquakes, which are common, artificial earthquakes also occur in the region as a result of constructing water accumulations (dams); the latter have been registered at, amongst others, the dams of Bocac, Grabovica, Grančarevo and Rama. According to available data, in the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the past more destructive earthquakes (compared to the local focal zone) have occurred of a magnitude M ≥ 5.0, with an intensity at the epicentre of Io≥ 7 on the MCS Scale.
At the entity level there are institutions that are responsible for covering geological activity, namely Geozavod in Zvornik and the Federal Bureau of Geology in Sarajevo. The biggest gaps exist in the staffing and the technical aspects of these institutions.
LANDSLIDES
The main criterion for assessing vulnerability to landslides in BiH is based on the existing evidence of landslides or analysis of the consequences of the observed event when there were consequences for people, property, infrastructure and the environment. The following list of representative landslides has been created: Suljakovic landslide (Maglaj), Mala Broda landslide (Sarajevo), Bogatići-Trnovo landslide, Čemerno - Gacko landslide, Lopare landslide, Zvornik landslide and the Banja Luka landslide.
BIOHAZARD
Infectious diseases are classified according to the ways and means of spreading the infection: respiratory diseases, intestinal infectious diseases - antropozoonosis, sexually transmitted diseases and other infectious diseases. In BiH the most common respiratory diseases in this group are flu, streptococcal infection, varicella and tuberculosis. In the accompanying period, also a significant public health problem regularly among the top ten diseases was the emergence of measles in the Republic of Serbia, which has spread to the unvaccinated section of the population in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Routine surveillance of communicable diseases in BiH is based on the law. On the registration list there are eighty-four infectious diseases. Based on the appearance of infectious diseases, the Department of Epidemiology of the Institute of Public Health of the Federation and the RS Institute for Health Protection continuously monitor, analyse and assess the epidemiological situation in the country and submit reports to the health sector, the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the relevant international institutions. In BiH there is currently no unified information network. Weaknesses in the oversight system are the capacity for data duplication, the completeness and timeliness of reports, insufficient laboratory diagnostics, while feedback is often lacking along with monitoring and supervision of quality control.