oceans and atmosphere
The 2015 Antarctic Ozone Hole Summary: Final Report
Final Report
Paul Krummel, Paul Fraser and Nada Derek
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
June 2016
Department of the Environment
Oceans and Atmosphere
Citation
Krummel, P. B., P. J. Fraser and N. Derek, The 2015 Antarctic Ozone Hole Summary: Final Report, Report prepared for the Australian Government Department of the Environment, CSIRO, Australia, iv, 27 pp., 2016.
Copyright
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The 2015 Antarctic Ozone Hole Summary: Final Report | iii
Contents
Acknowledgments v
1 Satellite data used in this report 1
1.1 TOMS 1
1.2 OMI 1
1.3 OMPS 1
2 The 2015 Antarctic ozone hole 3
2.1 Ozone hole metrics 3
2.2 Total column ozone images 6
2.3 Antarctic meteorology/dynamics 7
3 Comparison to historical metrics 9
4 Antarctic ozone recovery 15
Appendix A 2015 daily total column ozone images 19
Definitions 20
References 22
Figures
Figure 1. Ozone hole ‘depth’ (minimum ozone, DU) based on OMI & OMPS satellite data. The 2015 hole based on OMI data is indicated by the thick black line while the light blue line indicates the 2015 hole based on OMPS data. The holes for selected previous years 1998, 2000, 2003, 2006 & 2014 are indicated by the thin orange, blue, red, green and pink lines respectively; the grey shaded area shows the 1979-2014 TOMS/OMI range and mean. 3
Figure 2. Average amount (DU) of ozone within the Antarctic ozone hole throughout the season based on OMI & OMPS satellite data. The 2015 hole based on OMI data is indicated by the thick black line; the light blue line indicates the 2015 hole based on OMPS data. The holes for selected previous years 1998, 2000, 2003, 2006 & 2014 are indicated by the thin orange, blue, red, green and pink lines respectively; the grey shaded area shows the 1979-2014 TOMS/OMI range and mean. 4
Figure 3. Ozone hole area based on OMI & OMPS satellite data. The 2015 hole based on OMI data is indicated by the thick black line while the light blue line indicates the 2015 hole based on OMPS data. The holes for selected previous years 1998, 2000, 2003, 2006 & 2014 are indicated by the thin orange, blue, red, green and pink lines respectively; the grey shaded area shows the 1979-2014 TOMS/OMI range and mean. 5
Figure 4. OMI & OMPS estimated daily ozone deficit (in millions of tonnes, Mt) within the ozone hole. The 2015 hole based on OMI data is indicated by the thick black line while the light blue line indicates the 2015 hole based on OMPS data. The holes for selected previous years 1998, 2000, 2003, 2006 & 2014 are indicated by the thin orange, blue, red, green and pink lines respectively; the grey shaded area shows the 1979-2014 TOMS/OMI range and mean. The estimated total (integrated) ozone loss for each year is shown in the legend. 6
Figure 5. NASA MERRA heat flux and temperature. The 45-day mean 45°S-75°S eddy heat flux at 50 and 100 hPa are shown in the two left hand panels. The 60°S-90°S zonal mean temperature at 50 & 100 hPa are shown in the right two panels. Images courtesy of NASA GSFC – http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/SH.html. 8
Figure 6. Minimum ozone levels observed in the Antarctic ozone hole using a 15-day moving average of the minimum daily column ozone levels during the entire ozone season for all available years of TOMS (green) and OMI (purple) data. The orange line is obtained from a linear regression to Antarctic EESC (EESC-A) as described in the text. The error bars represent the range of the daily ozone minima in the 15-day average window. 12
Figure 7. The average ozone amount in the ozone hole (averaged column ozone amount in the hole weighted by area) for all available years of TOMS (green) and OMI (purple) data. The orange line is obtained from a linear regression to Antarctic EESC (EESC-A) as described in the text. 13
Figure 8. Maximum ozone hole area (area within the 220 DU contour) using a 15-day moving average during the ozone hole season, based on TOMS data (green) and OMI data (purple). The orange line is obtained from a linear regression to Antarctic EESC (EESC-A) as described in the text. The error bars represent the range of the ozone hole size in the 15-day average window. 13
Figure 9. Estimated total ozone deficit for each year in millions of tonnes (Mt), based on TOMS (green) and OMI (purple) satellite data. The orange line is obtained from a linear regression to Antarctic EESC (EESC-A) as described in the text. 14
Figure 10. Total column ozone amounts (October mean) as measured at Halley Station, Antarctica, by the British Antarctic Survey from 1956 to 2015. The orange line is obtained from a linear regression to Antarctic EESC (EESC-A) as described in the text. 14
Figure 11. Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine for mid-and Antarctic latitudes (EESC-ML, EESC-A) derived from global measurements of all the major ODSs at Cape Grim (CSIRO) and other AGAGE stations and in Antarctic firn air (CSIRO) from Law Dome. EESC-A is lagged 5.5 years and EESC-ML 3 years to approximate the transport times for ODSs from the Earth’s surface (largely in the Northern Hemisphere) to the stratosphere at Southern Hemisphere mid- and Antarctic latitudes. Arrows indicate dates when the mid-latitude and Antarctic stratospheres return to pre-1980s levels of EESC, and approximately pre-ozone hole levels of stratospheric ozone. 16
Figure 12. ODGI-A and ODGI-ML indices (Hofmann and Montzka, 2009) derived from AGAGE ODS data using ODS fractional release factors from Newman et al. (2007). 17
Apx Figure A.1 OMI ozone hole images for September 2015; the ozone hole boundary is indicated by the red 220 DU contour line. The Australian Antarctic (Mawson, Davis and Casey) and Macquarie Island stations are shown as green plus symbols. The white area over Antarctica is missing data and indicates the approximate extent of the polar night. The OMI instrument requires solar radiation to the earth’s surface in order to measure the column ozone abundance. The white stripes are bad/missing data due to a physical obstruction in the OMI instrument field of view. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Apx Figure A.2 OMI ozone hole images for October 2015; the ozone hole boundary is indicated by the red 220 DU contour line. The Australian Antarctic (Mawson, Davis and Casey) and Macquarie Island stations are shown as green plus symbols. The white stripes are bad/missing data due to a physical obstruction in the OMI instrument field of view. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Apx Figure A.3 OMI ozone hole images for November 2015; the ozone hole boundary is indicated by the red 220 DU contour line. The Australian Antarctic (Mawson, Davis and Casey) and Macquarie Island stations are shown as green plus symbols. The white stripes are bad/missing data due to a physical obstruction in the OMI instrument field of view. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Apx Figure A.4 OMI ozone hole images for December 2015; the ozone hole boundary is indicated by the red 220 DU contour line. The Australian Antarctic (Mawson, Davis and Casey) and Macquarie Island stations are shown as green plus symbols. The white stripes are bad/missing data due to a physical obstruction in the OMI instrument field of view. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Apx Figure A.5 OMPS ozone hole images for September 2015; the ozone hole boundary is indicated by the red 220 DU contour line. The Australian Antarctic (Mawson, Davis and Casey) and Macquarie Island stations are shown as green plus symbols. The white area over Antarctica is missing data and indicates the approximate extent of the polar night. The OMI instrument requires solar radiation to the earth’s surface in order to measure the column ozone abundance. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Apx Figure A.6 OMPS ozone hole images for October 2015; the ozone hole boundary is indicated by the red 220 DU contour line. The Australian Antarctic (Mawson, Davis and Casey) and Macquarie Island stations are shown as green plus symbols. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Apx Figure A.7 OMPS ozone hole images for November 2015; the ozone hole boundary is indicated by the red 220 DU contour line. The Australian Antarctic (Mawson, Davis and Casey) and Macquarie Island stations are shown as green plus symbols. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Apx Figure A.8 OMPS ozone hole images for December 2015; the ozone hole boundary is indicated by the red 220 DU contour line. The Australian Antarctic (Mawson, Davis and Casey) and Macquarie Island stations are shown as green plus symbols. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Tables
Table 1. Antarctic ozone hole metrics based on TOMS/OMI satellite data - ranked by size or minima (Note: 2005 metrics are average of TOMS and OMI data). 10
Table 2. ODS contributions to the decline in EESC at Antarctic and mid-latitudes (EESC-A, EESC-ML) observed in the atmosphere in 2015 since their peak values in 2000 and 1998 respectively. 15
Acknowledgments
The TOMS and OMI data used in this report are provided by the TOMS ozone processing team, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Atmospheric Chemistry & Dynamics Branch, Code 613.3. The OMI instrument was developed and built by the Netherlands's Agency for Aerospace Programs (NIVR) in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and NASA. The OMI science team is lead by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and NASA. The MERRA heat flux and temperature images are courtesy of NASA GSFC (http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/SH.html).
The OMPS total column ozone data used in this report are provided by NASA's NPP Ozone Science Team at the Goddard Space Flight Center, Atmospheric Chemistry & Dynamics Branch, Code 613.3 (see http://ozoneaq.gsfc.nasa.gov/omps/ for more details). NPP is the National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (NPP) and is a partnership is between NASA, NOAA and DoD (Department of Defense), see http://npp.gsfc.nasa.gov/ for more details.
The Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) data used in this report are calculated using observations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE). AGAGE is supported by MIT/NASA (all sites); Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (Cape Grim, Australia); UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) (Mace Head, Ireland); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Ragged Point, Barbados); Scripps Institution of Oceanography and NOAA (Trinidad Head, USA; Cape Matatula, American Samoa). The authors would like to thank all the staff at the AGAGE global stations for their diligent work in collecting AGAGE ODS data
This research is carried out under contract from Australian Government Department of the Environment to CSIRO.
The 2015 Antarctic Ozone Hole Summary: Final Report | iii
1 Satellite data used in this report
Full information on the satellite instruments mentioned below can be found on the following NASA website:
https://ozoneaq.gsfc.nasa.gov/missions
Below is a summary of the instruments, satellite platforms and resultant data that are used in this report.
1.1 TOMS
The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometers (TOMS) were a series of satellite borne instruments that measure the amount of back-scattered solar UV radiation absorbed by ozone in the atmosphere; the amount of UV absorbed is proportional to the amount of ozone present in the atmosphere. The TOMS instruments flew on a series of satellites: Nimbus 7 (24 Oct 1978 until 6 May 1993); Meteor 3 (22 Aug 1991 until 24 Nov 1994); and Earth Probe (2 July 1996 until 14 Dec 2005). The version of TOMS data used in this report have been processed with the NASA TOMS Version 8 algorithm.
1.2 OMI
Data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Earth Observing Satellite (EOS) Aura, that have been processed with the NASA TOMS Version 8.5 algorithm, were utilized again in the 2014 weekly ozone hole reports. OMI continues the NASA TOMS satellite record for total ozone and other atmospheric parameters related to ozone chemistry and climate.
On 19 April 2012 a reprocessed version of the complete (to date) OMI Level 3 gridded data was released. This is a result of a post-processing of the L1B data due to changed OMI row anomaly behaviour (see below) and consequently followed by a re-processing of all the L2 and higher data. These data were reprocessed by CSIRO, which at the time resulted in small changes in the ozone hole metrics we calculate.
In 2008, stripes of bad data began to appear in the OMI products apparently caused by a small physical obstruction in the OMI instrument field of view and is referred to as a row anomaly. NASA scientists guess that some of the reflective Mylar that wraps the instrument to provide thermal protection has torn and is intruding into the field of view. On 24 January 2009 the obstruction suddenly increased and now partially blocks an increased fraction of the field of view for certain Aura orbits and exhibits a more dynamic behaviour than before, which led to the larger stripes of bad data in the OMI images. Since 5 July 2011, the row anomaly that manifested itself on 24 January 2009 now affects all Aura orbits, which can be seen as thick white stripes of bad data in the OMI total column ozone images. It is now thought that the row anomaly problem may have started and developed gradually since as early as mid-2006. Despite various attempts, it turned out that due to the complex nature of the row anomaly it is not possible to correct the L1B data with sufficient accuracy (≤ 1%) for the errors caused by the row anomaly, which has ultimately resulted in the affected data being flagged and removed from higher level data products (such as the daily averaged global gridded level 3 data used here for the images and metrics calculations). However, once the polar night reduces enough then this should not be an issue for determining ozone hole metrics, as there is more overlap of the satellite passes at the polar regions which essentially ‘fills-in’ these missing data.