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Chapter 6 : Transport
CHAPTER 6
TRANSPORT
Like many of the sectors of the economy upon which it depends, transport is in decline in Tajikistan. The sector is dominated by inefficient state-owned enterprises that operate under incentives largely divorced from market realities. Although much of the fleet is inoperable, many enterprises still maintain fleets and conduct operations above present as well as predicted levels of demand for transport. Infrastructure, although in poor condition, still supports basic accessibility from settlements to market places and social services. Privatization of transport activities, which will be necessary to streamline the sector and stimulate growth, is still nascent.
Tajikistan’s transport sector must recover from a severe decline in the 1990s. The share of transport within the nation’s economy shrank from 5 to 1 percent of GDP between 1991 and 1998. Public freight transport actually rose to 108 percent of 1992 levels by 1998 (measured in ton-km), while turnover of passengers on the public transport system declined to 30 percent of passenger-km in 1992. Between 1990 and 1995, average daily traffic (ADT) on main arterial roads dropped from 3,750 to 800 vehicles per day. With recent upturns in economic activity, ADT has risen to 2,250 vpd (60% of 1990 levels).
Demand
Transport Intensity
Transport intensity (measured in ton-kilometers per dollar of GDP) has traditionally been high in Tajikistan, due to subsidized prices and the extreme specialization of the economy. Due to the fact that Tajikistan’s mountainous topography concentrates population and economic activity into relatively small areas, transport intensity is less than in other former Soviet republics (although it was still much higher than in Eastern Europe and five times above Western Europe). Due to economic decline and civil war, transport intensity of freight grew dramatically, peaking in 1995. It declined in the latter part of the decade as the economy began to recover. Nevertheless, transport intensity in 1998 exceeded that of 1992 by a factor of 2.3.
Passenger Transport
Because Tajikistan’s population has traditionally had low access to cars, utilization of public road transport is typically high. Public transport carries 89 percvent of all passengers in Tajikistan. Due to the increasing impoverishment of the population, passenger-kilometers in the public transport sector have fallen to 31 percent of 1992 levels. Buses and trolleybuses are the most commonly utilized means of transport, since the majority of the population cannot afford taxi, railroad, or air travel.
Domestic transport of passengers comprises only 13 percent of rail services. However, passenger use of rail services grew by a factor of 1.17 between 1992 and 1998. Passenger movement on railways peaked in 1995 at almost 135 million passenger-km, which is probably accounted for by troop movement (much of it Russian) during strife between establishment and UTO forces.
Although the population only uses air transport 18 percent as much as in 1992, passenger-km traveled in 1988 are still high considering per capita income levels. This is due to the fact that civil aviation is the only means of reaching certain areas of the country from the capital in wintertime (e.g. Leninabad Province and Badakhshan). Passenger traffic runs mainly through the Dushanbe airport to Khojend, Khorog, Korghan Tube, and international destinations.[1] Flights through the other 10 local airports are not as frequent. Over the last four years, Tajik Air has made modest improvements in passenger service, including introducing a business class for international flights. Tajikistan is a member of the International Civil Aviation Organization.
Freight Transport
Like most other countries of the NIS, Tajikistan relies more on freight transport than is typical of market economies. While demand for passenger service has declined, turnover in ton-km of freight transport grew to 108 percent of 1992 levels by 1998. Changes in demand have increased rail freight transport from 22 to 46 percent of total ton-km of freight hauled. Although one might expect rail loads to decrease due to economic decline, in fact they grew from 641 million to 1.4 billion ton-km. As noted above, a good deal of this increase is likely the result of military traffic (in 1995, railroad freight peaked at 2.1 billion ton-km). Rail rail freight is primarily utilized for import and export (75 percent of rail services), due to the high degree of specialization of Tajikistan’s economy.[2] Automobile freight followed the expected trend, dropping from 2.2 to around 1.7 billion ton-km over the same period. Neither automobile nor rail freight transport appears to have benefited from the recent upturn in the economy – trucking and rail freight dropped by 12 and 16 percent between 1996 and 1998. Air freight is hardly used for freight transport (0.002 percent of total ton-km in 1998).
Transport of Types of Freight by Rail (x 1000 tons)1992 / 1995 / 1996 / 1997 / 1998
Cotton
/ 79 / 158 / 118 / 125 / 108Grain
/ 102 / 29 / 8 / 19 / 34Petroleum / 55 / 21 / 11 / 12 / 28
Fertilizer / 94 / 18 / 16 / 0 / 0
Cement / 113 / 13 / 6 / 10 / 5
Wood / 8 / 1 / 17 / 1 / 2
Coal / 3 / 17 / 8 / 3 / 2
"Other" / 1193 / 604 / 426 / 434 / 452
Total / 1647 / 861 / 610 / 623 / 631
Source: Goskomstat.
Shifts in Demand
Changes in the structure of production have altered demand for freight transport. As seen in the table below, rail transport of cotton has remained relatively stable in the past few years, while rail shipments of oil, fertilizer, and cement have either diminished or virtually disappeared. The “other” category, which includes most of industrial demand (the main customer of rail services), has declined precipitously along with production in this sector. Due to increased grain production, imports of this commodity by rail are much less than before. A similar profile for truck transport is unavailable. However, because agriculture utilizes trucks far more than industry, it is highly probable that a new pattern of domestic grain distribution by truck has emerged, along with increased import of fertilizer by truck (fertilizer application has remained at relatively the same level since 1995).
International Transport and Foreign Relations
About 80 percent of Tajikistan’s international traffic passes through Uzbekistan. Tajikistan’s exports must be routed through Uzbekistan owing to several factors: 1) the ongoing civil war in Afghanistan eliminates a potential southern export route; 2) a link has not been established to the Karakorum Highway running from Xin Jian Province in China to Pakistan and the Indian subcontinent; 3) most significantly, Tajikistan’s northern and southern rail networks, which carry most of the republic’s export, are not connected. Instead, they are linked with the Ferghana Valley-Tashkent and Termez-Kerki trunk lines passing through Uzbekistan, respectively. While one might assume that this configuration makes Tajikistan dependent upon its neighbor, in fact cooperation between Tajik and Uzbek authorities is greater than one might expect. Leninabad Province controls access to the bustling commerce between Tashkent and the highly productive Ferghana Valley (population 10 million).[3] Cooperation is probably enhanced by this mutual dependence, as well as the fact that until 1994 Tajik Railways was part and parcel of the Tashkent-based Central Asian Railways.
Tajikistan is more dependent on its northern neighbors for access to highway routes than rail transit. Important highway routes follow rail lines, with the exception of a road from Panjikent to the Zerafshan Valley portion of Uzbekistan (Samarkand Province) and road from Khorog to Osh Province in the Kyrgyzstan portion of the Ferghana Valley. When internal roads from Dushanbe to Leninabad Province and Badakhshan become impassable (often for 5-6 months) in wintertime, traffic is routed through Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Excessive and discriminatory regulations laid down by the Government of Uzbekistan create artificial barriers to road transit from Tajikistan. For example, current fees through the Uzbek border are much higher for exported than for imported goods, especially for road traffic. Customs regulations are often complex and vague, leaving a great deal of leeway for Uzbek border officials to harass and extort bribes from Tajik drivers. The border is often closed arbitrarily with the official justification that civil strife in Tajikistan poses a threat to political stability in Uzbekistan.
Tajikistan participates in Technical Assistance Project for CIS countries (TACIS), implemented through European Union financing, which provides technical assistance for the transport sector in Central Asia and the Caucasus. TACIS has already financed draft laws on transport, a draft road transportation code, and a draft railway code (prepared in 1997) for the republics of the European-Caucasus Asia Transport Corridor (TRACECA). The TRACECA project seeks to facilitate east-west trade and communications through the development of infrastructure (roads, rail lines, telecommunications) and the standardization of customs and tax procedures. Under the draft law, each country shall allow any carrier established in the territory of another country to transport goods and passengers between any point in its territory and any point outside that territory without licenses or other restrictions. The implementation of this law and subsequent deregulation of export traffic in Central Asia will stimulate growth in Tajikistan’s transport sector, especially in trucking.
Supply
Infrastructure
Tajikistan’s main roads are largely intact, even though maintenance has declined dramatically since 1991. The network is quite developed in comparison with population size and density, per capita income, and urbanization.[4] Main arterial routes together with the five main urban areas account for at least 60 percent of the nation’s traffic.[5] As is evident from the chart below, Leninabad and Khatlon Provinces contain the greatest length of roads, probably due to the high priority that the Soviet government placed on servicing the cotton economy in these regions. During the Soviet era, road-building standards were high (over 90 percent of all roads are paved), which has partially compensated for the neglect of main roads. MOTR is now able to periodically maintain only 150 km of the primary road network (15 percent of 1991 levels). Around 80 percent of secondary roads are in poor condition, especially in mountain areas where they are damaged by floods, landslides, avalanches, and temperature extremes. However, there is currently no program to maintain them. A recent study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) suggests that $32.4 million per year is necessary to cover routine and periodic maintenance of the entire road network ($5.5 million was allocated in the 1998 budget).
Because infrastructure is already in place, construction of new roads should be limited to key projects that will yield significant returns on investment. Presently, the Government is trying to finance the construction of a tunnel to facilitate road transit between Khojend and Dushanbe during winter, when the Anzab Pass is usually closed to traffic. Work is presently proceeding at a rate of only 65 cm per day (400 meters to date).[6] Turkey is exploring the possibility of extending a $100 million credit for the completion of the tunnel. In March of 1998, the Government approved the construction of a 32 km road through Murghab to the Karakorum Highway that will give Tajikistan access to Xin Jian Province in China, the subcontinent, and the Indiana Ocean. The Turkish company Entes has won a contract to participate in the construction of the road, which is funded mainly by donor assistance. Construction is now underway on the $55 million project, which is scheduled for completion by October 2000. Preliminary talks have taken place with the Kyrgyz Republic concerning a $21 million project for new road in the Freghana Valley between Khojend and the city of Osh.
Tajikistan’s railroad network is limited in size, largely due to the mountainous topography of the country. It extends 560 km and is configured for external commerce and internal service for industrial facilities in Leninabad (36 percent of length), Khatlan (45 percent), and the RRS (19 percent). The more extensive southern portion of the network connects Dushanbe, Kafarnihan, Kurghan Tube, Kulab, and Tursunzade. The 80-kilometer Kulab-Korghan Tube section of this network is newly built.
The air transport infrastructure that Tajikistan inherited from the Soviet Union is relatively well-developed. The country’s two main airports, Dushanbe and Khojend, have runways of 3,100 m and 2,600 m, respectively, neither of which can accommodate jumbo jets. Runways, air traffic control, and airport terminals are poorly maintained. In 1998, the airport in Kulab was rebuilt.
Public Transport Fleet, 1992-981992 / 1998
Locomotives / 2400 / 2515
Rail Cars - Freight / 2126 / 2207
Rail Cars - Passenger
/ 274 / 308Airplanes and Helicopters / 96 / 85
Trucks / 63951 / 50224
Buses / 8500 / 7627
Cars / 8987 / 7649
Special / 5659 / 5158
Other / 3437 / 2327
Trolleybuses / 317 / 170
Fleet.
Tajikistan’s transport fleet has excess capacity and is poorly maintained. Despite the fact that passenger transport and truck transport demand is well below 1992 levels and not expected to rise in the short term, road transport enterprises retain fleets well in excess of actual needs (with the possible exception of trolleybuses). The state owns all specialized vehicles, 81 percent of the trucks, 81 percent of the buses, and 5 percent of the cars in the republic. Collective farms, cooperatives, and other farm organizations own a fleet of 11,000 trucks (35 percent operational) and 13,000 tractor-trailers (60 percent operational) to transport agricultural products to cotton ginneries, purchasing centers, and bazaars.[7] MOTR and the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources also utilize relatively large fleets (7,200 and 7,300 vehicles, of which 37 and 8 percent are functional, respectively). Road fleet utilization is highly inefficient. For example, a taxi driver in Dushanbe serves no more than three customers a day. A private trucker will drive (at most) 10 days per month. The maximum annual mileage of a public inter-city bus is only 10,000 km (compared with 50,000 km for the other NIS countries).
A large majority of the fleet of buses and trucks pre-dates the break-up of the FSU and is near the end of or has exceeded its service life. According to official estimates, 45.5 percent of the state-owned fleet is operational. Spare parts are scarce, so vehicles are being maintained through cannibalization. Retirement of broken-down vehicles, rather than sale of unneeded assets, is the primary reason that the number of trucks in the agriculture sub-sector declined to 72 percent of 1992 levels by 1998.
Tajik Rail has managed to expand its fleet using revenues derived from its important role in external trade. Between 1994 and 1998, the railway maintained a nearly constant number of locomotives, while adding to its fleet of passenger and freight cars. Much rolling stock is in poor condition. However, Tajik Rail has responded to this need by having old cars refurbished at the Tajik Textile Machinery Plant. By 1998, 100 cars had been repaired.
Tajik Airlines inherited an extensive fleet from Aeroflot containing over 40 different kinds of aircraft. Although few aircraft have fallen out of service, no new aircraft have been added to the fleet in the past decade. Thus, and many aircraft are aging and/or have fallen into disrepair (the company operates the oldest TU154 in the world).
Institutional and Legal Framework
Organizational Structure
The Department of Transport and Communications (DOTC) under the Council of Ministers is responsible for the overall supervision of the transport sector. It has authority over the Ministry of Transport and Roads (MOTR), Tajik Railways, Tajik Airlines, and various enterprises dealing with passenger and freight transport. Since DOTC is reportedly staffed by a handful of persons, its capacity to effectively plan and coordinate policies for the sector is necessarily very limited. Sector ministries with traditionally high transport needs, most notably Transport, Agriculture, Water Management and Land Reclamation, and Construction possess the largest fleets. State-owned firms under line ministries operate most short-haul traffic (which comprises approximately 90 percent of all traffic). Construction and maintenance are carried out by over 220 state-owned organizations and entities, the majority of which are under the jurisdiction of local governments and municipalities (the rest are under MOTR). The Ministry of Internal Affairs is responsible for vehicle registration and security, while the Ministry of Environment oversees environmental controls.
MOTR deals only with road transport and road infrastructure management and has no responsibilities over rail and civil aviation. The Board of Directors of Tajik Rail and Tajik Air report directly to DOTC, being independent of any ministerial structure. Autonomous rail and civil aviation enterprises were established in Tajikistan in 1993 and 1994, respectively. Tajik Railways, which is operated by a staff of 7,000, became independent of the Central Asia Railway in Tashkent in 1994. Tajik Air is a state-owned enterprise established in 1993 that employs 3,000 persons. The company acquired the responsibilities of the former Aeroflot Regional Directorate, which are supervision and regulation of air transport, formulation of air transport policy, provision of air transport services, operation and maintenance of airports, provision of air navigation and air traffic control services, and accident investigations.
State Ownership and Sector Management
The sector suffers from the predominance of state-owned enterprises, which manage almost 95 percent of freight transport and 90 percent of passenger transit. MOTR, other ministries, and municipalities commonly merge supervisory and operational functions, which results in conflicts of interest. Rail and aviation remain exempted from privatization. Commercial firms for construction or maintenance are non-existent. Direct contracting for construction and maintenance is prevalent. State-owned enterprises are not bound by performance contracts. Public firms do not compete even amongst themselves. At the same time, the market is not developed enough to attract new comers, making it difficult to break the monopolies. Because state owned enterprises are not profit oriented, their operations are not demand-driven. Most pre-war road transport operators remain in business despite the sharp decrease in demand, which creates excess capacity.
Privatization and liquidation of enterprises is beyond schedule. The Government’s most significant move in this direction has been to shift enterprises from SOE to joint-stock company status, which amounts to little more than a cosmetic change. In a few cases, the ownership of the companies has been transferred to employees. However, the Government remains the only shareholder in most enterprises concerned. According to official statistics, the number of privately owned trucks increased from almost 4,000 to 11,500 between 1992 and 1998. Approximately 3,000 MOTR trucks have been privatized since 1995. Ownership of around 800 trucks was transferred from farms to drivers in 1999. The actual number of privatized trucks is probably greater than official data indicate, since it appears that the population has moved ahead of the Government and privatized many vehicles (especially in the farm sector) on an ad hoc basis.