Table A2-1. Summary of Climate-Lake Ice Model Comparison Results: Ice-In Dates. Parameter

Appendix 2

Table A2-1. Summary of climate-lake ice model comparison results: ice-in dates. Parameter sets were constructed for each lake based on correlation screening and all possible models involving all combinations of parameters were initially evaluated and ranked by Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AICc). Only those within two units ΔAICc of the top-ranked model are presented below. Akaike weights (wi) and parameter estimates are given for these models; temperature (°C) and snow depth (cm) estimates are in SI units.

ARBUTUS ICE IN / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / May max Tmin / Nov mean Tmin / Dec max Tmin / Dec max Tmax / Nov mean snow / Dec mean snow
1 / 0.12 / 0.54 / 0.51 / -8.89
2 / 0.26 / 0.11 / 0.57 / 0.35 / -8.82
3 / 0.76 / 0.09 / 0.57 / 0.44 / 0.29 / -7.00
4 / 1.19 / 0.07 / 0.53 / 0.25 / -6.60 / -1.79
5 / 1.54 / 0.06 / 0.58 / 0.56 / -3.18
6 / 1.61 / 0.06 / 0.56 / 0.31 / 0.20 / -8.22
7 / 1.65 / 0.05 / 0.54 / 0.35 / 0.41 / -7.63
8 / 1.66 / 0.05 / 0.52 / 0.36 / -7.05 / -1.58
9 / 1.66 / 0.05 / 0.62 / 0.27 / -2.80
10 / 1.79 / 0.05 / 0.48 / -7.14 / -3.05
11 / 1.81 / 0.05 / 0.62 / 0.47 / 0.22 / -2.15
CATLIN ICE IN / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Nov mean Tmin / Dec mean Tmin / Dec max Tmin / Dec mean Tmax / Dec max Tmax
1 / 0.15 / 0.75 / 0.58
2 / 0.53 / 0.12 / 0.63 / 0.62
3 / 0.75 / 0.11 / 0.71 / 0.22 / 0.27
4 / 1.13 / 0.09 / 0.63 / 0.33 / 0.35
5 / 1.54 / 0.07 / 0.79 / 0.37
6 / 1.55 / 0.07 / 0.63 / 0.40 / 0.19
7 / 1.72 / 0.06 / 0.72 / 0.39 / 0.17
8 / 1.86 / 0.06 / 0.64 / 0.17 / 0.45
DEER ICE IN / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Nov mean Tmin / Dec max Tmin / Nov mean snow / Nov SD snow
1 / 0.27 / 0.65 / 0.33 / -10.26
2 / 0.59 / 0.20 / 0.89 / -12.09
3 / 1.10 / 0.15 / 0.51 / 0.38 / -9.48
4 / 1.99 / 0.10 / 0.54 / -11.34
RICH ICE IN / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Nov mean Tmin / Dec max Tmin / Dec mean Tmin / Dec mean Tmax / Dec max Tmax / Dec mean snow
1 / 0.16 / 0.72 / 0.21 / 0.22 / -1.47
2 / 0.48 / 0.13 / 0.84 / -0.35 / 0.30 / 0.31 / -1.80
3 / 1.15 / 0.09 / 0.74 / 0.37 / -0.41 / 0.35 / -1.63
4 / 1.30 / 0.08 / 0.82 / 0.28 / -2.19
5 / 1.32 / 0.08 / 0.72 / 0.23 / 0.32
WOLF ICE IN / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Nov mean Tmin / Nov min Tmin / Dec max Tmin / Dec mean snow
1 / 0.15 / 0.36 / 0.53
2 / 0.83 / 0.10 / 0.34 / 0.39 / -1.56
3 / 1.36 / 0.08 / 0.40 / 0.30 / 0.40
4 / 1.69 / 0.07 / 0.54 / 0.34 / -2.01

Table A2-2. Summary of climate-lake ice model comparison results: ice-out dates. Parameter sets were constructed for each lake based on correlation screening and all possible models involving all combinations of parameters were initially evaluated and ranked by Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AICc). Only those within two units ΔAICc of the top-ranked model are presented below. Akaike weights (wi) and parameter estimates are given for these models; temperature (°C) and snow depth (cm) estimates are in SI units.

ARBUTUS ICE OUT / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Mar mean Tmin / Apr mean Tmax / Apr mean snow depth / Apr max snow depth
1 / 0.23 / -0.42 / -0.30 / 1.71
2 / 1.71 / 0.10 / -0.41 / -0.29 / 2.84 / -0.57
CATLIN ICE OUT / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Mar mean Tmin / Apr mean Tmin / Apr mean Tmax / Apr mean snow depth / Apr SD snow depth
1 / 0.17 / -0.31 / -0.39 / 1.53
2 / 0.87 / 0.11 / -0.33 / -0.44 / 2.19
3 / 1.68 / 0.07 / -0.32 / 0.26 / -0.52 / 1.68
DEER ICE OUT / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Mar mean Tmin / Apr mean Tmax / Apr mean snow depth / Apr max snow depth
1 / 0.23 / -0.37 / -0.30 / 1.90
2 / 1.76 / 0.10 / -0.38 / -0.29 / 3.27 / -0.71
RICH ICE OUT / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Mar mean Tmax / Apr mean Tmax / Apr mean snow depth
1 / 0.24 / -0.52 / 1.65
2 / 1.90 / 0.09 / -0.15 / -0.48 / 1.52
WOLF ICE OUT / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Mar mean Tmin / Apr mean Tmin / Feb mean Tmax / Apr mean Tmax / Apr mean snow depth / Apr SD snow depth / Apr max snow depth
1 / 0.10 / -0.26 / -0.51 / 1.38
2 / 0.51 / 0.08 / -0.28 / -0.55 / 2.00
3 / 0.85 / 0.07 / -0.23 / -0.12 / -0.44 / 1.38
4 / 1.03 / 0.06 / -0.28 / 0.28 / -0.65 / 1.56
5 / 1.06 / 0.06 / -0.28 / -0.57 / 5.98 / -1.37
6 / 1.58 / 0.05 / -0.25 / -0.12 / -0.48 / 1.99
7 / 1.65 / 0.05 / -0.15 / -0.48 / 1.53
8 / 1.78 / 0.04 / -0.57 / 1.56

Table A2-3. Summary of climate-lake ice model comparison results: ice duration. Parameter sets were constructed for each lake based on correlation screening and all possible models involving all combinations of parameters were initially evaluated and ranked by Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AICc). Only those within two units ΔAICc of the top-ranked model are presented below. Akaike weights (wi) and parameter estimates are given for these models; temperature (°C) and snow depth (cm) estimates are in SI units.

ARBUTUS DURATION / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Dec max Tmin / May max Tmin / Nov mean snow / Nov SD snow / Apr mean Tmax / Apr mean snow
1 / 0.09 / -0.66 / -0.43 / 8.87 / 1.73
2 / 0.65 / 0.07 / -0.65 / 11.01
3 / 0.94 / 0.06 / -0.59 / 12.33
4 / 1.08 / 0.05 / -0.64 / 11.51 / 1.30
5 / 1.22 / 0.05 / -0.68 / -0.47 / 9.78 / -0.32 / 1.82
6 / 1.44 / 0.05 / -0.67 / -0.31 / 8.97
7 / 1.87 / 0.04 / -0.62 / -0.31 / 9.89
8 / 1.93 / 0.04 / -0.65 / -0.43 / 8.51 / 0.00 / 1.48
CATLIN DURATION / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Dec max Tmin / May max Tmin / Dec mean snow / Mar mean Tmin / Apr mean Tmax / Apr mean snow
1 / 0.17 / -0.82 / -0.33 / 1.90 / -0.69 / 1.75
2 / 1.39 / 0.08 / -0.80 / -0.37 / 1.84 / -0.27 / -0.64 / 1.62
3 / 1.92 / 0.07 / -0.82 / 2.30 / -0.69 / 1.45
DEER DURATION / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Dec max Tmin / Dec mean Tmin / Nov mean snow / Nov SD snow / Apr mean snow
1 / 0.11 / -0.66 / 10.27 / 2.53
2 / 0.14 / 0.10 / -0.98 / 0.30 / 10.40 / 2.47
3 / 0.23 / 0.10 / -0.66 / 9.11 / 2.77
4 / 0.32 / 0.09 / -0.98 / 0.30 / 9.28 / 2.72
RICH DURATION / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Dec max Tmin / Dec mean Tmin / Dec max Tmax / Nov mean snow / Nov SD snow / Dec mean snow / Apr mean Tmax / Apr mean snow
1 / 0.10 / -0.31 / -0.27 / 1.92 / -0.40 / 1.68
2 / 0.99 / 0.06 / -0.43 / 2.96 / -0.50 / 1.66
3 / 1.18 / 0.06 / -0.32 / -0.42 / -0.30 / 1.77
4 / 1.28 / 0.05 / -0.43 / 11.12 / -13.42 / 3.13 / -0.55 / 1.96
5 / 1.50 / 0.05 / -0.33 / -0.28 / -4.27 / 2.42 / -0.39 / 1.71
6 / 1.67 / 0.04 / -0.27 / -0.47 / 2.01
7 / 1.71 / 0.04 / -0.37 / -0.28 / 10.92 / -13.80 / 2.45 / -0.55 / 1.89
8 / 1.78 / 0.04 / -0.35 / -0.28 / 2.26 / -0.50 / 1.60
9 / 1.90 / 0.04 / -0.34 / -0.22 / 9.03 / -11.84 / 2.35 / -0.45 / 1.93
WOLF DURATION / Rank / ∆AICc / wi / Dec max Tmin / May max Tmin / Dec mean snow / Apr mean Tmax / Apr mean snow
1 / 0.16 / -0.61 / -0.30 / 2.52 / -0.98 / 1.89
2 / 0.23 / 0.14 / -0.62 / 2.87 / -0.93 / 1.65
3 / 1.47 / 0.08 / -0.84 / -0.36 / -0.84 / 1.81