APPENDIX 1

Table A1: Pearson's correlation coefficients among all predictor variables used to model the presence of any non-native plant species across 809 cells (250 x 250 m) along the SW Spanish coast. Bold values indicate correlations above 0.6 (R2=0.36).

PRESENCE DATA / Transect length / Minimum temperature / Annual precipitation / Summer precipitation / %Plantation 1956 / %Cropland 1956 / %High-density urban 1956 / %Low-density urban 1956 / %Plantation 1991 / %Cropland 1991 / %High-density urban 1991 / %Low-density urban 1991 / %Dunes 2007 / %Wetland 2007 / %Plantation 2007 / %Cropland 2007 / %High-density urban 2007 / %Low-density urban 2007
Minimum temperature / 0.08
Annual precipitation / 0.10 / 0.46
Summer precipitation / -0.13 / -0.43 / 0.04
%Plantation 1956 / 0.05 / 0.02 / -0.05 / -0.05
%Cropland 1956 / 0.07 / -0.02 / -0.06 / -0.05 / 0.14
%High-density urban 1956 / 0.03 / 0.00 / -0.10 / -0.06 / -0.02 / 0.19
%Low-density urban 1956 / -0.01 / 0.03 / 0.19 / 0.11 / -0.02 / 0.01 / -0.02
%Plantation 1991 / 0.07 / 0.04 / 0.03 / -0.05 / -0.01 / -0.06 / -0.02 / -0.02
%Cropland 1991 / 0.06 / -0.15 / -0.05 / -0.09 / 0.01 / 0.70 / 0.00 / -0.04 / -0.05
%High-density urban 1991 / 0.00 / -0.14 / -0.15 / 0.08 / -0.02 / 0.30 / 0.48 / -0.04 / -0.03 / 0.09
%Low-density urban 1991 / 0.01 / 0.08 / -0.09 / -0.02 / 0.21 / 0.21 / 0.13 / 0.11 / 0.03 / -0.09 / 0.06
%Dunes 2007 / 0.04 / -0.33 / -0.04 / 0.24 / 0.00 / -0.05 / -0.04 / -0.02 / -0.06 / 0.00 / 0.01 / -0.03
%Wetland 2007 / -0.14 / 0.10 / -0.25 / -0.03 / -0.04 / -0.18 / -0.05 / -0.06 / -0.04 / -0.09 / -0.07 / -0.09 / -0.22
%Plantation 2007 / 0.03 / 0.06 / 0.09 / 0.02 / 0.33 / 0.02 / -0.03 / -0.01 / 0.29 / -0.07 / -0.02 / 0.08 / -0.05 / -0.06
%Cropland 2007 / 0.09 / -0.08 / 0.03 / -0.10 / 0.00 / 0.64 / -0.01 / -0.04 / -0.04 / 0.82 / 0.01 / -0.06 / -0.02 / -0.12 / -0.04
%High-density urban 2007 / 0.06 / -0.04 / -0.18 / 0.01 / -0.03 / 0.21 / 0.52 / -0.04 / -0.03 / 0.09 / 0.78 / 0.23 / -0.03 / -0.04 / -0.04 / -0.02
%Low-density urban 2007 / 0.06 / -0.03 / -0.08 / -0.10 / 0.25 / 0.53 / 0.00 / 0.09 / 0.02 / 0.34 / 0.10 / 0.68 / -0.02 / -0.15 / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.13
%Protected area / -0.08 / 0.32 / 0.01 / -0.12 / -0.11 / -0.41 / -0.18 / -0.06 / 0.05 / -0.45 / -0.24 / -0.31 / -0.20 / 0.28 / -0.03 / -0.40 / -0.30 / -0.49

Table A2: Pearson's correlation coefficients among all predictor variables used to model non-native plant species richness across 362 invaded cells (250 x 250 m) along the SW Spanish coast. Bold values indicate correlations above 0.6 (R2=0.36).

RICHNESS DATA / Transect length / Minimum temperature / Annual precipitation / Summer precipitation / %Plantation 1956 / %Cropland 1956 / %High-density urban 1956 / %Low-density urban 1956 / %Plantation 1991 / %Cropland 1991 / %High-density urban 1991 / %Low-density urban 1991 / %Dunes 2007 / %Wetland 2007 / %Plantation 2007 / %Cropland 2007 / %High-density urban 2007 / %Low-density urban 2007
Minimum temperature / 0.18
Annual precipitation / 0.20 / 0.52
Summer precipitation / -0.19 / 0.03 / -0.43
%Plantation 1956 / 0.03 / -0.08 / 0.05 / -0.07
%Cropland 1956 / 0.10 / -0.06 / 0.03 / -0.16 / 0.26
%High-density urban 1956 / 0.05 / -0.07 / -0.05 / -0.08 / -0.03 / 0.15
%Low-density urban 1956 / -0.02 / 0.24 / 0.04 / 0.18 / -0.03 / -0.04 / -0.01
%Plantation 1991 / 0.01 / 0.05 / 0.07 / -0.06 / -0.03 / -0.10 / 0.00 / -0.03
%Cropland 1991 / 0.09 / 0.00 / -0.10 / -0.16 / -0.04 / 0.68 / -0.01 / -0.06 / -0.09 / 1.00
%High-density urban 1991 / 0.03 / -0.16 / -0.14 / 0.02 / -0.04 / 0.25 / 0.55 / -0.05 / -0.02 / 0.09
%Low-density urban 1991 / -0.05 / -0.07 / 0.05 / -0.06 / 0.40 / 0.22 / 0.07 / 0.11 / 0.04 / -0.13 / 0.01
%Dunes 2007 / -0.07 / -0.13 / -0.29 / 0.16 / 0.02 / -0.09 / -0.02 / -0.02 / -0.11 / -0.07 / 0.02 / 0.01
%Wetland 2007 / -0.10 / -0.20 / 0.02 / -0.02 / -0.05 / -0.21 / -0.03 / -0.05 / -0.07 / -0.09 / -0.05 / -0.13 / -0.20
%Plantation 2007 / 0.04 / 0.07 / 0.14 / -0.07 / 0.40 / 0.03 / -0.05 / -0.03 / 0.38 / -0.10 / -0.04 / 0.19 / -0.12 / -0.08
%Cropland 2007 / 0.09 / 0.08 / -0.05 / -0.12 / -0.03 / 0.66 / -0.05 / -0.05 / -0.08 / 0.86 / -0.04 / -0.10 / -0.10 / -0.13 / -0.06
%High-density urban 2007 / 0.06 / -0.17 / -0.09 / -0.02 / -0.05 / 0.19 / 0.60 / -0.06 / -0.04 / 0.08 / 0.85 / 0.07 / -0.02 / -0.02 / -0.06 / -0.08
%Low-density urban 2007 / 0.00 / -0.05 / -0.02 / -0.18 / 0.39 / 0.51 / 0.00 / 0.06 / 0.01 / 0.28 / 0.06 / 0.70 / -0.03 / -0.17 / 0.11 / 0.19 / 0.03
%Protected area / -0.03 / 0.03 / 0.32 / -0.06 / -0.14 / -0.42 / -0.18 / -0.05 / 0.07 / -0.45 / -0.26 / -0.31 / -0.09 / 0.27 / -0.02 / -0.39 / -0.30 / -0.51

Figure A1: Percentage of explained deviance for univariate models of the presence of any non-native species (Presence) and total non-native species richness at invaded grids (Richness) using as independent variables the percentage of land-cover categories reflecting human alteration. Each point corresponds to the fitness of the univariate model for each year (1956, 1991 and 2007) and spatial extents used to calculate land-cover percentages. Zero distances correspond to percentages calculated within the cell.

Figure A2: Moran's Index calculated in 1 km bins for the models explaining the presence of any non-native species and richness at invaded cells using all landscape alteration variables (i.e. percentage of human land-cover areas) for 1956, 1991 and 2007 and controlling for climate, protected area and habitat type.

Figure A3: Scatter plots for the percentages of cropland and low-density urban areas in 809 cells (250 x 250 m) for 1956, 1991 and 2007.The diagonal line represents the line of unity.

Table A3: Standardized coefficients of best models explaining current presence of any non-native species and richness at invaded cells considering all human landscape alteration variables for 1956, 1991 and 2007 (% cropland, low density urban, high density urban and forest plantations) and controlling for habitat type (% wetland and dunes), management practices (% protected area), climatic conditions (minimum temperature of coldest month, annual precipitation and precipitation of warmest quarter) and transect length.

Presence / Richness at invaded
1956 / 1991 / 2007 / 1956 / 1991 / 2007
Intercept / -1.41*** / -1.38*** / -1.40*** / 0.55*** / 0.55*** / 0.56***
% Cropland / 0.27** / 0.15
% Low-density urban / 0.3** / 0.31*** / 0.46*** / 0.09*** / 0.06***
% High-density urban / -0.12
% Forest plantations / 0.19 / 0.07** / 0.07*
Min temperature of coldest month / -0.24* / -0.32*** / -0.33***
Annual precipitation / -0.27** / -0.16 / -0.15 / -0.1* / -0.08* / -0.09*
Precipitation of Warmest Quarter / 0.1** / 0.12** / 0.12**
% Wetlands / -0.11 / -0.11 / -0.1
% Protected area / -0.03 / 0.04 / 0.11 / -0.15*** / -0.15*** / -0.16***
Transect length / 0.001*** / 0.001*** / 0.001*** / 0.001 / 0.001 / 0.001
*P<0.05;**P<0.01; ***P<0.001

Figure A4: Scatterplots of the projected future change in non-native species richness and land-cover changes between 1956 and 2007 (percentage). The change in species richness was calculated using the best model calibrated with land-cover data from 1956 and fed with 2007 data. Following the model formulation, only cells with at least one non-native species in 2010-2011 (date of sampling) were considered. Only significant linear relationships are shown (i.e. richness versus urban change).