Systematic reviews and meta-analysis of prognostic studies

Organisors: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care and Dutch Cochrane Center, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Website: www.

Coordinator: Thomas Debray, PhD (e-mail: )

Co-convenors: Prof. Carl Moons, Dr. Lotty Hooft, Rene Spijker MSc.

Educational office:

Course days: weekdays

Lecture times: between 10:00 and 17:00

Course format: lectures, small group discussions, computer exercises, self-study

Duration:4 days

Date: 26 – 29 mei 2015

Topics day-by-day:

  1. Introduction to systematic reviews of prognostic studies. Lecturers: Carl Moons + Lotty Hooft

Morning: Lecture + Practical (Exercises)

  1. Lay out of the course
  2. Types of prognostic studies and systematic reviews of prognostic studies

Afternoon: Lecture + Practical (Exercises)

  1. Formulating the review question (PICO) and protocol of a review
  1. Searching, Data extraction, Critical appraisal, Risk of Bias. Lecturers: Rene Spijker, Carl Moons, Lotty Hooft

Morning: Lecture and computer practical

  1. Searching for prognostic studies

Afternoon: Lecture and Practical

  1. Data extraction, Critical appraisal, Risk of bias
  1. Meta-analysis of prognostic studies. Lecturer: Thomas Debray

Morning: Lectures and exercises

  1. Rationale, Advantages/disadvantages of Meta-analysis of prognostic studies

Afternoon: Computer Practical

  1. Meta-analysis of prognostic models
  1. Meta-analysis of prognostic studies (contd.). Lecturer: Thomas Debray, Carl Moons, Lotty Hooft

Morning: Lectures and computer practical

  1. Restoring unreported estimates
  2. Meta-analysis of incremental value of prognostic factor
  3. Q&A

Afternoon: Examination

Course description:

The number of primary studies evaluating prognostic factors and models is rising per day. Alike for therapies and diagnostic tests, critically summarizing and analyzing the evidence form prognostic studies in a systematic review and meta analysis is beneficial for health care professionals seeking the best evidence. Reviews of prognostic studies are much more challenging because of more variation in questions & designs, specific sources of bias & variation, and more complex statistical meta-analytical models. Several advances regarding the design, critical appraisal and statistical analysis in systematic reviews of prognostic studies, have recently been made. In this course we discuss and practice how to define your review questions, how to search the literature, how to critically assess the methodological quality of primary prognostic studies, and which statistical methods to use for meta-analyses of the results of primary prognostic studies. The course consists of plenary presentations, small-group discussions, and computer exercises.

Background knowledge

In this course, we expect participants to have a basic knowledge about the principles of prognostic research (a short recap will be given at day 1) and of systematic reviews and meta-analysis. Furthermore, computer exercises will be done using the statistical software R, so knowledge of basic R commands is desired (see also R tutorial under day 1).

Course objectives:

At the end of the course, the student will be able to:

  • Explain the rationale for performing a systematic review of prognostic studies
  • List the key steps of a systematic review of prognostic studies
  • Formulate a focused review question addressing a prognostic problem
  • Systematically search the literature
  • Critically appraise the evidence from primary prognostic studies
  • Formulate the difficulties of meta-analysis of prognostic research
  • Meta-analyses of performance of prognostic models
  • Meta-analyses of the added value of specific prognostic factors

Assessment:

On Friday (Day 4), there will be an examination. Furthermore, minimally 80% of the course activities should be attended.