Draft 1.0
Analysis of
King County, Washington
Economic and Labor Market Information
February 2008
Prepared for:
Seattle Public Schools
Advanced CTE Feasibility Study
By
1
Draft 1.0
Seattle Public Schools
Advanced CTE Feasibility Study
King County Economic and Labor Market Overview
The service area labor market overview prepared for Seattle Public Schools(SPS) feasibility study for advanced Career and Technical Education (CTE) learning options focuses primarily on the greater Seattle area. However, most labor market data prepared by the Washington State Department of Employment Security presents data on a county-wide basis. The labor market overview presented, to the greatest extent possible, focuses on thearea services by Seattle Schools to present a picture of some of its unique economic and labor market characteristics. Data utilized in this study includes the 2006 and is the most current available from Employment Security.
Throughout the 1990’s, King County underwent extraordinary gains in employment, population and wages. The employment base for the county added nearly 230,000 new jobs from 1996-2006. The service area for Seattle Public Schools was responsible for approximately 30 percent of those new jobs.
For purposes of this feasibility study, labor market information has been aligned with the 16 career clusters pathways identified by the U.S Department of Education (Table 1). These career clusters, matched with all occupations relevant for every industry, dovetail with career pathways which schools use to organize curriculum and provide students with career preparation skills and knowledge. Proposed advanced CTE learning optionswill align program offerings with career clusters matching local market demand and emerging high-demand occupations. The Labor Market and Economic Analysis Brach (LMEA) of the Washington State Department of Employment Security recently developed and introduced new career cluster tool as part of theirWorkforce Explorer online information system. Portions of the overview data were derived from that tool.
Table 1: U.S Department of EducationCareer Clusters(
Cluster TitleAgriculture and Natural Resources / Hospitality and Tourism
Architectural and Construction / Human Services
Art and Technology / Information Technology
Business and Administration / Law and Safety
Education and Training / Manufacturing
Finance and Insurance / Retail and Wholesale Trade
Government and Public Administration / Science, Research and Engineering
Health Sciences / Transportation, Distribution and Logistics
Labor Market Outlook
King Countyaccounts for approximately forty percent of all jobs in Washington State. Since the bulk of the state’s durable goods manufacturing, which is most sensitive to the economic business cycle, is concentrated in the greater Seattlearea, this region tends to suffer the most during recession. However, King County has weathered several economic booms and recessions in the past fifty years and long-term projections indicate that its economy will continue to thrive and add new jobs. Growth in this region will attract consumer-oriented retail and service development and catalyze employment growth in the professional and business sectors.
Demographics
Population
Despite the high cost of living, the population of King County is forecasted to continue to increase, although more slowly than it did during the 1990’s. The county’s estimated 2005 population of 1,793,583 has grown by 3.3 percent since the 2000 census.1 As the twelfth largest county in the nation (by population) and the most populous county in Washington, King County leads the state in per-capital income.
Figure 1
Age
King County has proportionately fewer young people (under the age 15) and fewer older residents (60 and older) when compared to the state and nation. People between the age of 20 and 59 (typically the working ages) make up 61 percent of population of King County, while they make up 57 and 56 percent of the state and nation respectively. The oldest age group (60 and older) is projected to increase from 15 percent of the population in 2004 to 23 percent of the population in 2024.
Race and Ethnicity
According to the 2005 U.S. Census2, people self-categorized as White-Non Hispanic accounted for 73 percent of King county’s population – compared to 79 percent in the state, and 69 percent in the nation. Black/African Americans (5.3%) make up a relatively smaller percentage of compared to the U.S. (12.0%). People who categorize themselves as Asian make up nearly 11 percent of KingCounty’s population compared to 3.6 percent in the U.S.
1 Source: Washington St. Dept. of Employment Security; Workforce Explorer, Labor Market Information, September 2006. (Note: Employment figures are based on a survey of employers in the area, while the unemployment rate and labor force data are based on a national survey of households. Employment and labor force figures are not adjusted for seasonality)
Educational Attainment
The population of King County ishighly educated, according to the 2005 U.S. Census American Community Survey.3 King County residents (age 25 and older) without a high school diploma account for only 10 percent of the population, while the state (13%) and nation (20%) had proportionately for more residents without a diploma. County residents with a bachelor’s degree (or higher) make up 36 percent of the population in 2005 compared with 28 percent in the state and 24 percent in the nation.
Employment
Labor Force
Total employment4 in King County (Figure 1) grew by approximately 83,600 jobs from September 2004 to September 2006, for a 5.8 percent increase for the three year period. This substantial increase partially reflects September 2005’s lower manufacturing employment estimates due to Boeing’s machinists’ strike. King County continues to account for more than its share of the Washington state’s total employment gains.
Figure 1
Source: Washington St. Dept. of Employment Security; Workforce Explorer,
Labor Market Information, September 2006.
Industry Employment by Age and Gender
In 2006, women made up 47 percent of the workforce in King County. Traditionally male dominated career clusters include Architecture and Construction (87%), Manufacturing (72%), Transportation (67%), and Information Technology (66%) continue to be predominately made up of men. Female-dominated career clusters include Health Science, and Human Services (76% of job are filled by women in these clusters), Education and Training (66%) and Finance and Insurance (61%).
3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey;
2 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State and County Quick Facts, 2005
4Source: Washington St. Dept. of Employment Security; Workforce Explorer, Labor Market Information, September 2006.
Workers between the ages of 25 and 64 account for about 84 percent of the total jobs in King County. Typically, workers in the Business and Administration (27%), Arts, A/V Technology and Communications (23%), and Hospitality and Tourism (34%) career clusters are relatively young. Older workers make up a larger percentage of the total workforce – compared to the all-career cluster average – in Education and Training (23%), and Government and Public Administration clusters.
Unemployment
The estimated 2006 unemployment rate for King County (4.4%) compared with the state’s unemployment rate of 5.5 percent at the same time (Figure 2). Typically, the unemployment rate is about 1.0 percent lower that the state’s at any given time. Although King County was hit hard during the employment slump during 2001-2003 resulting from the impact on the aviation/aerospace industry by the 2001 national terrorist attacks, the unemployment rate remained below the state’s every year in the past decade.
Figure 2
Source: Washington St. Dept. of Employment Security; Workforce Explorer,
Labor Market Information, September 2006.
Wages and Income (Average Annual Wages – Adjusted for Inflation)
In 2006, King County averaged about 1,116,434 jobs with a total payroll in excess of $56 billion. Although the average annual wage was 4.8 percent less than the average 2000 wage (at the height of the economic boom) the 2006 wage exceeded the 1990 average wage by about 40 percent. The Information Technology career cluster’s average annual wages ($97,093) in 2006were greatest among all clusters, followed by Finance and Insurance ($74,802). The Hospitality and Tourism ($17,869) and Education and Training ($31,755) and Business and Administration ($31,900) career clusters averaged the lowest annual wages.5
5 Source: Washington St. Dept. of Employment Security; Workforce Explorer, Labor Market Information, September 2006.
Hourly Wages and Per Capita Income
The median hourly wage for jobs in King County has increased by 8 percent since 2000 and nearly 22 percent since 1990. King County’s median wage of $20.60 in 2005 was the highest among Washington counties. By comparison, the state-wide median hourly wage for 2006 was $17.52.6
The lowest-paid ten percent of jobs paid $8.34 per hour, while the highest-paid ten percent of jobs paid $98 or more per hour. Between 2002 and 2006, wages earned by the lowest-paid ten percent of job increased by 8 percent, while the highest-paid ten of job decreased by 27 percent.
In 2006 per capita income in King County measured $45,334, greater than the state’s per capita income ($33,254) and the nations ($31,459). The county ranked first among the state’s counties.7 Nearly $11 billion dollars left the county due to cross-county commuting.
Labor Market Projections
King County’s labor force is expected to grow to approximately 1,237,529 by 2014 – an increase of 15.3% from 2005 employment. This number reflects an increase of 189,628 new jobs during the ten year period. Additional openings resulting from typical job replacements could increase this number to approximately 300,000 job openings. Although the projected annual growth rate percentage will slow slightly from the rapid growth occurring from 2000-2005, the growth rate will remain higher that the projected annual growth rate for the state.
Figure 3
6 Source: Washington St. Dept. of Employment Security; Workforce Explorer, Labor Market Information, September 2006.
7Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey;
As shown in Figure 5, every career cluster in King County will continue to add jobs. The career clusters of Arts, A/V Technology and Communications(0.8%) and Manufacturing(0.9%) are projected to growth at the slowest rate. While the ten-year projection for the nation will add very few manufacturing jobs, employment in King County is expected to grow due to record-sales by The Boeing Company.
Figure 5
Annual career cluster growth rates greater than one percent are considered significant. However, clusters with projected annual occupational growth rates of one and one-half percent (1.5%) or greater are considered to be fast growing. Applying that threshold, the Business and Administration (1.5%), Hospitality and Tourism (1.6%), Information Technology (1.6%), Health Science (1.7%), and Architectural and Construction (2.4%) career clusters are expected to provide the greatest annual employment growth.
Fastest Growing Occupations
One of the parameters established for the Seattle Public Schools Advanced CTE Feasibility Study is that educational programs provided by selected model focus on career clusters, and occupations within those clusters, projected to be fast growing and in high demand. Fast growing occupations are identified as those which are projected to add a significant percentage of new workers. Typically, those occupations projected to add additional workers in excess of 1.5% per year are considered to be fast growing.
Figure 6identifies career cluster within King County that are projected to contain the greatest number of occupational opening expected to grow at a rate greater than 1.5% per year for the ten year period from 2005-2014. The number of fast growth occupations listed for each career cluster contains only those occupations requiring some to extensive educational preparation. Based on analysis of projection provided by the Labor Market and Economic Analysis Branch of the Washington State Department of Employment, the Business and Administration(+7,823)and Architectural and Construction (+ 4,978) career clusters are expected to contain the greatest number fast-growth job openings. Other career cluster projected to add significant numbers of new workers annually are Information Technology +2984), Health Sciences (+2,779) and Education and Training (+2,361). Note that the numbers of new openings are in addition to normal job replacements. Detailed information regarding fast growing occupations in King County can be found in Appendix 2.
Figure 6
High Demand Occupations
High demand occupations are typically those that employers are expected to have long-term difficulty in filling. These occupations usually involve a lengthy training period which prevents rapid adjustment of supply to demand. As of January 2008, a standardized definition and criteria for determining “high demand” occupations for the state of Washington has not been adopted by either the Employment Security Department (ESD) or state agencies such as the Workforce Training and Education Coordinating Board (WTECB). Instead, each Workforce Development Area (WDA) in the state identifies those occupations within its region that are determined to have occupations “In Demand.” “In Demand” occupations are determined by employers reporting a current shortage of workers and are identified on ESD’s Workforce Explorer website for each WDA. Therefore, an annual list of high demand occupations ranked according to a job opportunity factors that takes into consideration both supply and demand for workers in that occupation is not available by county or WDA.
To determine high demand occupations for career clusters within King County which could be translated into advanced CTE educational programs, the following research criteria will be applied:
a)Occupations that require some to extensive career preparation -- a minimum of 11th and 12th grade training to those requiring extensive postsecondary education.
b)Occupations projected to grow at a rate greater that 1.5% per year.
c)Occupations with 100 or more projected annual new job openings.
d)Occupations with wage rates equal to or greater that 200% of the state minimum wage rate (2 x $8.07 [2008 Washington minimum wage rate] = $16.14 per hour).
Using these criteria, high-demand occupations were identified in thirteen of the sixteen career clusters. Table 1 below provides examples these high-demand occupations. All occupations within this table were also identified as “In Demand” occupations within the King County Workforce Development Area. Grouping high-demand occupations by career cluster will help identify potential advanced CTE program focus areas, each representing a group of occupations that required a similar facility with similar types of equipment and similarly qualified instructors to train for occupations within the cluster.
Table 1
Examples ofKing County High Demand Occupations*
by Career Cluster
Agriculture & Natural Resources / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %Sales Representatives Wholesale/
Manufacturing Technical/Scientific / Medium / 4,755 / 311 / $32.50 / 1.9
Art, A/V Technology & Communication / No identifiable career cluster occupations meeting study “High Demand” criteria.
Architectural & Construction / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %
Carpenters / Medium / 12,902 / 913 / $24.87 / 1.9
Painters Construction & Maint. / Medium / 4,518 / 410 / $19.18 / 2.2
Supervisors/Managers of Construction Trades Workers / Medium / 6,710 / 304 / $32.72 / 1.8
Plumbers Pipefitters and Steamfitters / Medium / 4,094 / 291 / $28.97 / 1.6
Electricians / Medium / 4,356 / 271 / $26.50 / 1.7
Construction Managers / Medium / 4,261 / 199 / $49.47 / 1.6
Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers / Some / 2,566 / 159 / $29.07 / 2.6
Architects Except Landscape and Naval / Extensive / 2,462 / 135 / $32.27 / 3.4
Table 3 – Examples of High Demand Occupations* (Cont.)
Business & Administration / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %
Bookkeeping Accounting and Auditing Clerks / Medium / 14,256 / 616 / $16.65 / 1.5
Accountants and Auditors / Considerable / 12,431 / 542 / $27.25 / 1.6
Supervisors/Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers / Medium / 10,628 / 435 / $25.13 / 1.6
Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants / Medium / 8,705 / 427 / $20.75 / 1.5
Management Analysts / Considerable / 7,654 / 398 / $35.19 / 2.1
Secretaries / Some / 8,587 / 344 / $16.16 / 1.7
General and Operations Managers / Considerable / 7,130 / 296 / $58.44 / 1.5
Billing, Posting Clerks and Machine Operators / Medium / 5,819 / 217 / $16.29 / 1.8
Medical Secretaries / Some / 4,945 / 180 / $15.66 / 2.1
Public Relations Specialists / Considerable / 3,261 / 129 / $25.45 / 1.8
Employment Recruitment and Placement Specialists / Considerable / 2,078 / 106 / $25.26 / 2.8
Government & Public Administration / No identifiable career cluster occupations meeting study “High Demand” criteria.
Health Science / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %
Registered Nurses / Medium / 18,258 / 895 / $33.58 / 2.1
Dental Assistants / Some / 2,749 / 174 / $19.33 / 2.1
Medical Assistants / Medium / 4,935 / 165 / $16.18 / 1.9
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses / Medium / 2,533 / 107 / $20.91 / 2.0
Hospitality & Tourism / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %
Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers / Some / 5,323 / 294 / $18 / 1.7
Travel Agents / Considerable / 2,540 / 127 / $18 / 2.8
Human Services / No identifiable occupations meeting study “High Demand” criteria
Table 3 – Examples of High Demand Occupations* (Cont.)
Information Technology / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %
Computer Software Engineers Applications / Considerable / 20,231 / 1,238 / $39.51 / 3.5
Computer Support Specialists / Medium / 8,085 / 388 / $24.76 / 2.8
Computer Systems Analysts / Considerable / 10,256 / 369 / $36.52 / 1.6
Network and Computer Systems Administrators / Considerable / 6,133 / 272 / $32.50 / 2.0
Computer and Information Systems Managers / Extensive / 3,664 / 212 / $52.37 / 2.1
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts / Medium / 4,064 / 202 / $35.30 / 2.1
Database Administrators / Considerable / 1,617 / 103 / $35.10 / 2.1
LAW and SAFETY / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %
Paralegals and Legal Assistants / Medium / 2,053 / 71 / $24.57 / 1.6
Manufacturing / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %
Purchasing Agents / Medium / 2,883 / 231 / $27.30 / 1.5
Machine Setter & Operators / Medium / 2,419 / 119 / 26.18 / 1.5
Mechanical Engineer Technicians / Medium / 4,811 / 218 / 25.95 / 2.4
Machine Assemblers / Medium / 9,304 / 840 / 27.37 / 2.5
Electro Mechanical Technicians / Considerable / 1,746 / 107 / 33.73 / 2.3
Retail & Wholesale Trades / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %
Customer Service Representatives / Some / 21,010 / 724 / $16.19 / 17.6
Marketing Managers / Considerable / 2,112 / 104 / $59.81 / 23.5
Science, Research & Engineering / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %
Civil Engineers / Considerable / 5,744 / 344 / $33.78 / 2.2
Medical Scientists Except Epidemiologists / Considerable / 3,641 / 172 / $26.85 / 2.5
Engineering Managers / Extensive / 2,399 / 164 / $56.21 / 1.9
Biological Technicians / Considerable / 2,914 / 128 / $18.32 / 2.1
Mechanical Engineers / Considerable / 1,973 / 119 / $35.89 / 1.9
Transportation, Distribution & Logistics / Preparation / 2005 Employment / Projected Annual Openings / Median 2005 Wage / Annual Growth %
Aircraft Mechanics & Service Technicians / Considerable / 2,108 / 164 / $31.27 / 2.2
Bus Drivers School (In Demand) / Some / 2,130 / 149 / $15.88 / 1.7
* Based on Feasibility Study defined research parameters (See page 8).
Education and Training