Student Worksheet: Mitigating Global Climate Change: What Will It Take?

Student Worksheet: Mitigating Global Climate Change: What will it take?

The objective of this project is to determine what we need to do to mitigate climate change. Mitigation strategies can include energy efficiency, developing renewable energy resources, reforestation, or other actions. Two important questions are:

How do we set goals to define what is enough mitigation?
What actions are required to meet these goals?

The first question has been pondered by climate scientists and policy makers. There are currently three primary ways to consider how much mitigation is required:

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 80% of the 1990 values by 2050 (80x50)
Limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to 350 ppm
Limiting the global average temperature anomaly to 2°C

The activities included in this project will provide an answer to the second question while ideally meeting these three climate change mitigation goals.

Introduction to stabilization wedges

Choose five wedges that you think will be appropriate for mitigating climate change. See the wedge summary table to help you select your choices.

Strategy / Sector
(E, T,H or B) / Cost ($) / Challenges
1
2
3
4
5

Discuss your rationale for choosing these 5 mitigation wedges and your thoughts on the ease or difficulty implementing these strategies would require.

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Part1: Projected Carbon emissions and CO2 concentrations

A.for 5 mitigation wedges:

Open the spreadsheet labeled “Student Spreadsheet” and view the worksheet labeled “Wedges.” You will notice there are two sets of data for emissions and carbon dioxide concentrations (rows 12-22). The first is for projected “Business as Past” emissions (A1G) to compare to future emissions. The second set is a dynamic data range for emissions and concentrations under the selected mitigation strategy. These values change when students enter in a number of wedges (multiple of 5 from 0 to 25) they would like to consider.

Define an emission strategy:
Enter a number of wedges (use 5 for the first analysis) in the yellow box (Cell C7)
Calculate the required emissions in 2061 (50 years into the future( (enter equation in cell C8). The projected 2061 BAP emissions are 25.85 GtC/y. By noting that each of the wedges helps by reducing the global total emissions by 1 GtC/y, we can see that the
2061 BAP emissions – number of wedges = required 2061 emissions.
The carbon emissions and CO2 concentration graphs are automatically updated to provide some understanding of how successful the mitigation strategy (# wedges) was.
The emissions and concentration graph are automatically updated. Review these graphs (rows 24-39) to provide a visual sense of how well your mitigation strategy worked.
Evaluate if the emissions and concentration goals were met:
For the 80x50 emission reduction goal: Enter an equation in cell J8 to calculate the percent reduction in emissions. The 1990 value is constant and provided in cell J5, and the value for the year 2050 is automatically included in cell J6. Enter the % reduction calculation in cell J8.

As an excel equation, this can be written as =100*(J5-J6)/J5

For the 350 ppm concentration target in 50 years (2061), review information automatically generated in cells J10 and L10.

Enter values from your spreadsheet into the second and third columns of the table below.

Value / Result for 5 wedges / Does it meet the goal? (yes/no) / Result for your choice of # of wedges / Does it meet the goal? (yes/no)
# wedges / 5 / --- / ---
2050 emissions (GtC/y) / --- / ---
2061 emissions (GtC/y) / --- / ---
% reduction in carbon emissions (2050 relative to 1990)
2061 CO2 concentration (ppm)

Discussion questions:

Were 5 stabilization wedges effective in meeting the target CO2 concentration and emission reduction goals? Describe if you were close or very ineffective.

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Write a hypothesis for your estimate of how many wedges really are required (chose a multiple of 5 between 0 and 25.

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B.For your choice of the number of wedges:

Number of wedges considered: Click here to enter text.

Repeat steps 1-4 (above) and enter new results into the 4th and 5th columns of the table above. Copy and paste the Excel graphs in the boxes below.

Discussion questions:

Was your mitigation strategy (# wedges) effective in meeting either the climate change mitigation goals considered in this section (80 x 50 or 350 ppm)? Describe how close (or not) you were in meeting each of these goals.

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Compare your results with someone who chose a different number of wedges. How do they compare?

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If you had the opportunity to repeat this analysis, would you choose a different number of wedges? If yes, how many? Explain your answer.

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Part 2: Projected Global Temperatures

Open document summarizing EdGCM modeling results that show temperature anomalies in 2061
Evaluate the global average temperature anomalies: Record the temperature anomaly in 2061 for five wedges and your chosen wedge scenario in the table below.

Number of Wedges

2061 Global Average Temperature Anomaly (°C)

How much is this above goal of 2°C?

5

At the bottom of the results document (page 1), click the link with your desired number of wedges. This will bring you to a map of the temperature anomalies around the world. The “Business as Past” map is given with each scenario to provide a comparison. Answer the following questions based on the 2061 maps given.

Discussion questions:

Was your mitigation strategy (# wedges) effective in meeting either the climate change mitigation goal considered in this section (≤2°C)? Describe how close (or not) you were in meeting this goal.

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If you had the opportunity to repeat this analysis, would you choose a different number of wedges? If yes, how many? Explain your answer.

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What areas of Earth experienced the most change in temperature? How much will the temperature change over the 21st century?

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Did any geographic regions experience a decrease in temperature with your choice?

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Part 3: Selection of suitable mitigation wedges

Review the wedge options. Choose specific wedges to equal the total number of wedges you used in your analysis above. Consider your thoughts on the feasibility, cost and acceptability of each of the options. The wedge options marked with a blue star can only be used once in your set of selected wedges. Other wedges can be used multiple times.

Number of wedges: Click here to enter text.

Note:

You may use a strategy more than once (except those marked with a blue star)
Only use whole numbers of wedges
The maximum number of wedges of any type depends on the current sources of carbon dioxide emissions. The table below summarizes the maximum number of wedges of each type.

Number of Wedges / Maximum Number of Wedges of Each Type
Electricity / Transportation / Heat/
Direct Fuel Use
5 / 4 / 3 / 3
10 / 7 / 5 / 5
15 / 10 / 8 / 8
20 / 14 / 10 / 10
25 / 18 / 15 / 15

Record your strategies to reduce in the table on the next page.

Discussion questions:

What were some of the wedges that you readily selected? Explain why.

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Was it difficult to find enough wedges to meet the number of wedges you selected for your analysis? If yes, what made the selection difficult?

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Were there any wedges that you selected purely because you needed to add more but that you were reluctant to add? If yes, identify which ones were hard to add and describe why.

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After completing this analysis, how feasible do you think it will be to meet the three climate change mitigation goals used in this project? What advice would you give to policy makers about their goals or actions we should undertake to mitigate climate change?

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Did this analysis and the extent of actions required to mitigate climate change make you think about your own lifestyle and energy consumption? Are there any mitigation actions you might consider for yourself, family or school?

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Project Module prepared for the NASA GCCE Project-Based Global Climate Change Education Project

Table to record selection of mitigation wedges

Strategy / Sector
(E, T,H or B) / Cost ($) / Comments on why you selected this strategy
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Enter total for each type of strategy and dollar signs / E =
T =
H =
B =

Project Module prepared for the NASA GCCE Project-Based Global Climate Change Education Project