China---Vision 2020
Speech at the CroatianInstitute of International Relations
November 28, 2012, Zagreb
The Mayan calendar terminates by the end of December 2012. Someone assumed that this year would be the end of the world. Let me show you how the Hollywood movie describes the world of 2012.
Fortunately, this is a faked story. It will not come true. We are still alive. However, the year 2012 is indeed not an easy one. The world economy is still in recession, many countries are still affected by the financial and sovereign debt crisis, while the Middle East is still at war….. This is the fact of today.
Turning your eyes to China, you might see a totally different scene of prosperity. You may ask why Chinais still thriving during the time of crisis. What are the prospects of China’s future and what can China bring to the world with its rapid development? The recently concluded the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China answers all the questions and gives us a China vision 2020.
To talk about the future 10 years, we must start by reviewing the past 10 years’ development in China. Let me share with you some basic facts of what happened in China in the last decade.
The past 10 years for China is a period in which the country witnessed the most rapid development and substantial achievements, while the people’s living standard has also been greatly improved. Let me share with you some basic figures and facts: the average annual growth of China’s economy is 10.7% during the last 10 years, much higher than the world average of 3.9%; China’s GDP reached 7.5 trillion USD in 2011. China is now the second largest economic of the world; China’s share in the world economy increased from 4.4% to 10% within 10 years; China’s contribution to the world economic growth accounts for more than 50%; China’s GDP per capita reached 5432 USD ranking No.90 of the world; the total import and export trade volume reached to 3.6 trillion USD in 2011 ranking the second place of the world. At present, China is the world largest export and second largest import country. I believe China will become the world largest import country in the near future. China has established a relatively comprehensive social security system and achieved the largest poverty alleviation goals of the world. China maintains low unemployment rate and the registered unemployment rate is under 4%. The average per capita income increased by 1.8 times over the past 10 years. China’s scientific innovation has also achieved tremendous accomplishments.
On the basis of such progress, the 18th CPC Congress set our targets for 2020. The vision can be depicted by figures.
By the year 2020, China’s goal is to double both its total GDP amount and the income per capita for both urban and rural residents of 2010. Calculated in constant prices of 2010, the total volume of China’s economy will reach 13 trillion USD by 2020, close to the amount of the first world economic entity. The GDP per capita will also surpass 10,000 USD.This will be a substantial development for China’s economy, especially with the doubling of the income per capita as a major breakthrough. Let’s put this in simple mathematic terms, the average income of urban residents in China will increase from more than 3000 USD in 2010 to almost 7000 USD by 2020.
This is not only a plan to enrich the people, but also a strong engine in promoting China’s economic development. The income-doubling refers to the actual growth regardless of the price element in which the real purchasing power can be guaranteed. In the past 10 years, regardless of the price element, the actual annual growth rate of the average Disposable Personal Income was 9.2% and the total volume of retail sales has increased from less than 1 trillion USD to 3 trillion USD with an annual growth of 16%. If this progress continues, by the year 2020, the scale of total consumption will exceed 10 trillion USD. The income-doubling measures will create 600million middle-income consumers. They are the firm foundation and the driving force for long-sustained economic development. They will directly lead to sharp increase of total volume of consumption and consumption structure, providinggreater space for industrial development and better opportunities for investment.
Urbanization is another key word for China’s future development. At present time, China’s urbanization rate has reached to 51.27%and by 2020,it will be up to over 60%. Urbanization becomes the largest potential demand of the domestic market as well as the driving force for its high-speed economic development during the next 20 to 30 years. Urbanization is an important factor to the promotion of consumption demand, investment stimulation and promotion of economic service. However, the healthy sustainable development of urbanization must be established on real economy and industry to realize a harmonious development of urbanization, industrialization, agricultural modernization and informationization.
Ecologicalcivilizationas entitled“Beautiful China”, is another strategic goal adopted by the Congress.The “Beautiful China”concept represents the targets of sustainable development and building a harmonious society. The overall target is to achieve harmonious development of human being and the nature. During 2006-2011, the average energy consumption of per GDP unit in China decreased by 21%, which is an equivalent to a reduction of 1.6billion tons of CO2emission. The total emission of principal pollutant decreased by 15%, and the afforestation area of 620,000 sq.km. was developed. The target for 2020 is a further reduction of CO2emission by 40-45%. The Chinese government has made the solemn commitment to the world thatChina will follow a model of green development.
These targeted goals better prove that China will enter into a new round of economic growth. This is a clear and beautiful vision of China in 2020. Can we achieve these goals? Yes, we can.
China’s tremendous achievements in the past 10 years attributed to our road of socialism with Chinese Characteristics. As the leading party of the country with the largest population of the world, CPCcan never copy any other political system and development model. We firmly believe that we can only realize Chinese nation’s great renewal and rapid development by unswervingly following the path in line with China’s actual conditions. The success in the past demonstrates that we have made the right choice. The new generation of Chinese leadership, with Xi Jinping as the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, will unswervingly follow this path with Chinese characteristics and achieve the objectives of political stability, economic development, cultural prosperity, harmonious society and ecological civilization.
The Chinese Communist Party is guided by Scientific Outlook on Development. This is a major component of the guiding theory of CPC. The essence of the theory is to achieve sustainable development by overall rational programming and reshaping the economy while put people’s benefits in the first place. Development must be based on the acceleration of transformation of economic development pattern and the formation of new growth modality which putsquality and effectivenessas the priority of economy. Technological innovation will be dynamic to economic development while an up-to-date system of industry and a global-oriented economy will foster our new economic advantages.
China’s fast growth in the past 30 years depends on the input of cheap labor, consumption of large amount of resources and extensive government investment. However, such an extensive developmentmode is not sustainable. The key to China’s economic restructuring is the increase of labor and production efficiency through the improvement of technological progress in order to achieve the endogenous growth of economy. To meet this requirement, we are encountered with new tasks including fullutilization of innovation capabilities, promotion of technological innovation projects, establishment of new technological innovation system with enterprises as the main entity and the market as the orientation, accelerating the reform and upgrading of traditional industry with high and new technology, as well as the improvement of industrial innovation and market competition capacities.
Do we have challenges and what the world can benefit from China’s future development?
Yes, we do face very serious challenges and our task is arduous. After a few decades of rapid development, Chinais encountered with multiple challenges,such as theever-changing international situation, slow-down of the economic growth, aging of the population, the factors of social unfairness and sharpening of difference of income, the sustainability of resources and environment and so on.The 18th CPC Congress well take these challenges into consideration and our future development are targeted at solving all these problems by introducing new thinking and new measures. Sustainability of development and fairness of distribution will be achieved. I have full confidence in the future of my country.
As the second largest economy in the world, China has always been a focus of attentionof the international community as what direction China is heading and in what way the world will be affected. The 18thCPC Congress has signaled to the world that China will always be a positive force in safeguarding the world peace and promoting common development and prosperity. China was for long time in history on the forefront of world economy and technology, but hegemony was never its option. The Silk Road was a road of peace, prosperity and cooperation whichonce linked upChina and the world. China will still be a developing country in a long-run and China’scontinued, fast and healthy development will provide the world with more opportunities for cooperation and development. China’s huge market will provide the world with numerous business opportunities. We can see a mutual beneficial vision from the cooperation betweenChina and the world. Even if when Chinabecomes stronger and developed, we will still uphold the banner of peace, development, cooperation and mutual-benefit and to contribute to the world with peace, development and prosperity in a manner of a world power with responsibilities.
Ladies and gentlemen,
My vision of China in 2020 is----a country with real political democracy,highly developed economy, prosperous culture, comfortable livelihood of the people, friendlyenvironmentin a world of peace, harmony and cooperation. Let me quote Mr. Xi Jinping’s words to conclude my speech.
Thank you!