To all primary, middle and secondary schools in Somerset - For Information
fao: head teachers, governing bodies and school finance officers
Dear Colleague,
SOMERSETSCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST
Schools may like to know that forecasts of future pupil numbers all Somerset primary, middle and secondary schools are available via iPost. New forecast data are calculated each year based on data returned in the October School Census, and are made available during the spring term.
Use of the Data: The forecast datais used by the local authority in the planning of school places in Somerset, and forms the basis of the County's School Organisation Plan. In addition, the data is available to support the provision of services to schools where the number of pupils is relevant –eg to support the process of calculating budgets for all schools linked to pupil numbers.
The data is made available to schools for information – no specific action is required. Within your school the figures may be a useful starting point to help in the planningof school class/year group organisation eg where there are bulge year groups. In addition, with school budgets linked to pupil numbers, the datacan be used tohelp inform budgetary planning on a 3 to 5 year timescale.
Factors included: The calculation of the forecast data tries to take into account all relevant factors. The main elements in the calculation of forecasts are as follows:
For all schools the baseline data for the forecast figures is the actual roll taken from the DFE October School Census.
Pre-school numbers at primary schools are based upon data provided by the local health authority regarding the number of children living in the local area. The health authority figures are adjusted, where appropriate, to reflect past and present take-up of places by local pupils and trends in parental preference.
In addition an allowance for net migration is made to reflectfactors such as housing developments and the historical pattern of migration at each school.
The number of pupils joining middle and secondary schools is adjusted to take account of options to/from other schools/areas.
Sixth form forecasts are calculated on the basis of the recent take-up of places from year 11.
Underlying Principles and Limitations: All forecast calculations are produced guided by the Somerset policy of ‘local schools for local children’. The forecasts attempt to reflect parental preference for a school, but where there are pupils opting into the school from other areas the admission year group forecasts are not generally set above the capacity of the school to accommodate those pupils.
Please remember that whilst the forecast of pupils at your school in the short to medium term should be reasonably accurate, in the longer term they can only show what is likely to happen if current trends continue and subject to events which are reasonably certain to take place. This means that the following would be outside of the scope of the forecast data:
- changes in the pattern of parental preferences in the area;
- a new legislative framework, eg changes to the admissions code;
- a re-organisation of education provision in an area (including independent schools, free schools and colleges);
- new housing developments which do not have planning permission.
As far as new housing developments are concerned the forecasts attempt to reflect the expected rate of completion of those major developments that have received planning permission. Where development of a site is not confirmed or is only speculative,it is not possible to factor into the forecast data the effects of that housing.
In exceptional circumstances it may be considered necessary to re-calculate forecasts to deal with any significant new factors which have been confirmed. Otherwise they will be considered in the next annual update of the forecasts.
September Admissions: For all schools a key figure is the number of pupils who will be starting each September. The forecast calculations are usually undertaken at the end of the autumn term and do NOT reflect the number of preferences made by parents. More up-to-date figures will be known by schools in the coming weeks and months. For a very small number of schools the forecast admission figure for next September exceeds the published Admission Number that has been set. You are advised not to make definite plans on the basis that your numbers will reach the forecast figure until places are confirmed. Similarly, the forecast number of admissions for later years will be used to help plan future provision and identify where additional places need to be provided and where changes to admission numbers may be required.
Area Summary Data: It should beremembered that the number of pupils attending any particular school cannot be considered in complete isolation from what is happening at other nearby schools. For this reason, as well as the forecast for each individual school, a summary for all primary schools in an area is shown to help put the data into a local context.
Where there is more than one school of the same age range pupils serving a ‘town’ area, a summary forecast for the total of all town area schools is included. The forecasts for individual schools are based on the proportion of preferences in the area that each school has taken in recent years - subject to the limits of accommodation, as well as the number of pupils in that particular part of the town. The note of caution regarding the changes in patterns of parental preference made above applies particularly to schools in town areas. In some instances, it might be expected that in the medium to long-term the forecast for the town area as a whole would be more accurate than the forecast for an individual school.
Latest Forecast Data:
The forecast data is available from the links below. Accompanying the data is a supporting Commentary & Analysis which provides further information which will help set the context and interpret the data:
School Population Forecast 2016Part 1 - Commentary and Analysis(iPostID-2-5529)
School Population Forecast 2016Part 2 - Forecast Data (iPostID-2-5460)
Feedback: Please remember that no forecast will ever be completely accurate (indeed many schools will have gained or lost pupils since the return of actual numbers) but the figures are intended to provide the best possible indication of future numbers that is available. Schools are welcome to supply any feedback, or additional information at any time of the year which can be fed into the next update of forecast data.
I trust that you will find this data useful. Should you need further information please contact me.
Tony Verrier
Information Officer
Somerset County Council
Telephone (direct line) 01823 355961
Email:
PMIT_ACV/Somerset School Population Forecast.doc
March 2017