SKILLS LAB: TRACKING A HURRICANE

Problem

How can you predict when and where a hurricane will come ashore?

Skills Focus

interpreting data, predicting, drawing conclusions

Materials

map

ruler

red, blue, green, and brown pencils

Procedure

1)You are a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. You have been tracking a hurricane since October 11 at midnight when it was discovered off the coast of Cuba. You have a map showing the plotted path the hurricane has taken so far. Each dot represents the location of the eye of the hurricane at six-hour intervals. The last dot shows where the hurricane was located at noon on October 13.

  • Predict the path you think the hurricane will take.
  • Using a red pencil, place an X on the map where you think the hurricane will first reach land.
  • Next to your X, write the date and time you think the hurricane will come ashore.
  • Hurricane warnings are issued for an area that is likely to experience a hurricane within 24 hours.

Using a red pencil, shade in the area for which you would issue a hurricane warning.

2) It is now October 14. Update your map to show the hurricane’s current position.

  • Using the data for October 13th 6:00 P.M. and for October 14th, plot the next five positions for the storm. This time, use a blue pencil.
  • Use a ruler to connect the dots to show the hurricane’s path.
  • Based on this new data, decide if you need to change your prediction of where and when the hurricane will come ashore.
  • Mark your new prediction in blue pencil on your map.

3) One more day has passed, and it is now October 15th. The hurricane has not yet reached land. You’d better update your map to make the most accurate prediction!

  • Using the new data, plot the four additional positions. Use a green pencil.
  • Connect the dots to show the hurricane’s path.
  • With this new data, revise your predictions regarding when and where you think the hurricane will come ashore.
  • Mark your new prediction in green pencil on your map.

4) October 16 is here. The hurricane has turned out to be more unpredictable than anyone thought! Many people are counting on you to make an accurate prediction.

  • Using the final pieces of data, plot the next four positions using a brown pencil.
  • Connect the dots to show the hurricane’s path.

Name______Period _____ Date______
Analyze and Conclude

  1. Interpreting Data: Describe in detail the complete path of the hurricane. Include where it came ashore, and identify any cities that were in the vicinity.

______

  1. Predicting: How did your predictions in each step compare with what actually happened?

______

  1. Drawing Conclusions: Write a paragraph answering the following questions.
  2. Why do meteorologists have to be careful when issuing hurricane warnings?
  3. What problems might be caused if a meteorologist issued an unnecessary hurricane warning?
  4. What might happen if a hurricane warning were issued too late?

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