Skills in Lancashire: Evidence Base Commission – East Lancashire Statistical Annex
Skills in LancashireA COMPREHENSIVE EVIDENCE BASE ON
SKILLS AND EMPLOYMENT
East Lancashire
2015
1
Skills in Lancashire: Evidence Base Commission – East Lancashire Statistical Annex
East Lancashire
Key Messages· East Lancashire is the largest of the five Lancashire sub-geographies and is home to a population of 531,000, over one third of the LEP total. Despite relatively fast population growth in Blackburn with Darwen and Ribble Valley, overall population growth over the past twelve years has been modest, with population decline in Burnley and Pendle. East Lancashire loses population to the rest of the UK, with a net out-flow of 2,000 people in 2013.
· East Lancashire is home to a large black and minority ethnic population (BAME), the majority of whom are from Asian / Asian British backgrounds. These groups tend to have lower employment and economic participation rates than the population as a whole, particularly amongst women.
· Economic activity rates in East Lancashire are below the county, regional and national averages. All six local authorities have seen the proportion of the population which is economically active fall in recent years, and the employment rate has fallen by over 5%, more than twice as quickly as in Lancashire as a whole.
· Employment rates amongst women in East Lancashire are significantly lower than the county, regional and national averages, in part as a result of the ethnic mix within the local population.
· One in ten economically active residents of East Lancashire is unemployed (25,300 people). Unemployment is particularly high in Burnley (16.6%) and Pendle (14.3%). Over 6,000 people are claiming Jobseekers Allowance, and the number claiming in 2015 is almost unchanged from the number claiming in 2005.
· Just under 30% of the working age population is economically inactive, compared to 26.6% in Lancashire as a whole, reducing the pool of labour which local businesses can draw upon, and constraining the total level of economic output, as well as reducing levels of household income. Over one fifth of children live in households where no-one is in work.
· The occupational profile in East Lancashire is quite closely aligned with that in Lancashire as a whole with a number of exceptions – the share of professional occupations is lower (16% compared to 18%), fewer people work in administrative and secretarial roles (9% compared to 11%) and employment in sales and customer service roles is higher (11% compared to 8%). There are considerable differences between the local authorities, with the proportion of residents in highly skilled occupations ranging from 24% in Hyndburn to 61% in Ribble Valley.
· The share of residents employed in highly skilled occupations has increased by 4% over the past ten years, keeping pace with the regional average. However, this disguises considerable variation, with rapid growth in the proportion of residents in highly skilled occupations in Ribble Valley and Burnley, and a decline in Hyndburn.
· A similar pattern emerges in relation to skills levels, with the overall average of 27% holding qualifications at level 4 and above disguising a range from 21% in Pendle to 42% in Ribble Valley.
· There are over 200,000 jobs within East Lancashire’s workplaces, and the number has increased slightly since 2009, in contrast to the level of employment in Lancashire as a whole. Manufacturing is the largest sector and still accounts for 20% of employment in East Lancashire, rising to 31% in Pendle. The ten most highly represented sub-sectors (where the share of employment is highest in relation to the share nationally) are all manufacturing sub-sectors, including textile manufacture and the manufacture of transport equipment, in which East Lancashire has some world class companies.
· The economic forecasts for East Lancashire suggest that employment will rise, but only by around 2%, in contrast to the 4% increase expected in Lancashire and 6% nationally. Growth in the construction, professional, scientific and technical, administrative and support and wholesale and retail sectors will result in c. 8,300 additional jobs; however growth will be offset by losses in the manufacturing, education and public administration and defence sectors, resulting in a net increase of just under 5,300 jobs.
· The shift towards higher skills will continue, with a 3% increase in the proportion of highly skilled occupations. This is a smaller increase than is expected at county or regional level (4% and 5% respectively).
· Educational attainment is below average in East Lancashire, with only 63% of young people achieving five good GCSEs. The proportion is particularly low in Burnley (55%) and Pendle (56%).
· East Lancashire residents account for around one third of those participating in further education, in line with the share of population. They account for a higher proportion of apprentices – 40% - reflecting the use of apprenticeships as a route into the manufacturing sector locally.
· East Lancashire’s residents have made up 40% of those who have participated on the Work Programme in Lancashire. Job outcomes are below average, with only one in five securing employment.
Population
1.1 East Lancashire’s population of 531,000 accounts for 36% of the total Lancashire population, meaning East Lancashire is by some distance the largest of the sub-geographies. Population growth over the past 12 years has been slower than that experienced in Lancashire as a whole. Growth in Blackburn with Darwen (6%) and the Ribble Valley (7%) has been higher than the county average, however population decline in Burnley (-3%) and Hyndburn (-2%) has offset this.
1.2 The age structure of the East Lancashire population broadly follows the age structure nationally. However, Blackburn with Darwen has a lower than average proportion of residents aged over 50, whereas the Ribble Valley has an ageing population with a particular lack of 20-34 year olds.
1.3 The working age population of East Lancashire has grown by 3% over the last 12 years matching the average for Lancashire as a whole but below the regional and national average. Patterns of growth in the over 65 age group vary considerably, with Ribble Valley seeing this group increase by one third over the past ten years, compared to a 10% increase in Blackburn with Darwen.
1.4 17% of the East Lancashire population come from a Black or Ethnic minority (BAME) background which is higher than the county, regional and national averages of 10%. In particular Blackburn with Darwen has a high proportion of BAME residents with 31% of residents coming from a BAME background, the vast majority of whom are Asian or Asian British.
1.5 Over the next 10 years the working age population of East Lancashire is set to decrease by 2% with only Rossendale offering positive working age population growth of 1%. This is in line with the forecast for Lancashire as a whole, but contrasts with continued (although slight) working age population growth at national level.
Total Population: East Lancashire2001 / 2013 / 2001- 2013 % change
East Lancashire / 518,400 / 531,000 / 2%
Blackburn with Darwen / 138,500 / 147,400 / 6%
Burnley / 89,500 / 86,900 / -3%
Hyndburn / 81,500 / 80,000 / -2%
Pendle / 89,300 / 90,100 / 1%
Ribble Valley / 54,100 / 57,900 / 7%
Rossendale / 65,600 / 68,700 / 5%
Lancashire / 1,417,300 / 1,468,800 / 4%
North West / 6,773,000 / 7,103,300 / 5%
England minus London / 42,127,300 / 45,449,300 / 8%
Source: Mid Year Population Estimates
Population by Age Group: East Lancashire, % of total
0-14 / 15-19 / 20-24 / 25-34 / 35-49 / 50-64 / 65+ / Total
East Lancs. / 19% / 6% / 6% / 13% / 20% / 19% / 14% / 100%
Blackburn with Darwen / 22% / 7% / 6% / 14% / 20% / 17% / 11% / 100%
Burnley / 19% / 6% / 6% / 13% / 20% / 19% / 14% / 100%
Hyndburn / 19% / 6% / 6% / 13% / 20% / 18% / 14% / 100%
Pendle / 20% / 6% / 6% / 14% / 19% / 19% / 14% / 100%
Ribble Valley / 16% / 6% / 5% / 9% / 21% / 21% / 18% / 100%
Rossendale / 18% / 6% / 6% / 12% / 22% / 20% / 14% / 100%
Lancashire / 18% / 6% / 7% / 12% / 20% / 19% / 15% / 100%
North West / 18% / 6% / 7% / 13% / 20% / 19% / 14% / 100%
England minus London / 18% / 6% / 7% / 13% / 20% / 19% / 15% / 100%
Source: Mid Year Population Estimates
Working Age population change: East Lancashire
16-64 / 65+
2001- 2013 % change
2001 / 2013 / % change / 2001 / 2013 / % change
East Lancashire / 322,700 / 332,000 / 3% / 76,700 / 88,900 / 16%
Blackburn with Darwen / 85,500 / 93,000 / 9% / 18,300 / 20,200 / 10%
Burnley / 55,600 / 54,500 / -2% / 13,600 / 15,100 / 11%
Hyndburn / 50,600 / 49,900 / -1% / 12,300 / 13,800 / 12%
Pendle / 55,300 / 56,000 / 1% / 13,700 / 15,500 / 13%
Ribble Valley / 34,100 / 34,900 / 2% / 9,300 / 12,600 / 35%
Rossendale / 41,600 / 43,700 / 5% / 9,400 / 11,600 / 23%
Lancashire / 888,900 / 918,400 / 3% / 235,200 / 275,600 / 17%
North West / 4,297,200 / 4,516,100 / 5% / 1,081,700 / 1,252,600 / 16%
England minus London / 26,731,300 / 28,595,200 / 7% / 6,938,400 / 8,344,800 / 20%
Source: Mid Year Population Estimates
Ethnic Make Up, % of total population: East Lancashire
Asian / Asian British / Mixed / multiple ethnic / Black / African / Caribbean / Black British / Other / Total
East Lancashire / 15% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 17%
Blackburn with Darwen / 28% / 1% / 1% / 1% / 31%
Burnley / 11% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 13%
Hyndburn / 11% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 12%
Pendle / 19% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 20%
Ribble Valley / 1% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 2%
Rossendale / 5% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 6%
Lancashire / 8% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 10%
North West / 6% / 2% / 1% / 1% / 10%
England minus London / 6% / 2% / 2% / 1% / 10%
Source: Census 2011
Population Projections: East Lancashire (000’s)
16-64 / 65+
2015 / 2025 / % change / 2015 / 2025 / % change
East Lancashire / 336 / 329.2 / -2% / 93 / 110 / 18%
Blackburn with Darwen / 95 / 94 / -1% / 21 / 25 / 19%
Burnley / 55 / 52 / -5% / 16 / 18 / 16%
Hyndburn / 50 / 48 / -4% / 14 / 17 / 15%
Pendle / 57 / 56 / -1% / 16 / 19 / 19%
Ribble Valley / 35 / 35 / -2% / 13 / 16 / 20%
Rossendale / 44 / 45 / 1% / 12 / 15 / 22%
Lancashire / 928 / 910 / -2% / 287 / 337 / 17%
North West / 4,586 / 4,551 / -1% / 1,305 / 1,546 / 18%
England minus London / 29,152 / 29,577 / 1% / 8,744 / 10,580 / 21%
Source: ONS Population Projections
Economic Activity rate, %: East Lancashire
2004 / 2014 / 2004- 2014 % pt change
East Lancashire / 73.7 / 71.6 / -2.1
Blackburn with Darwen / 72.3 / 69.3 / -3.0
Burnley / 72.9 / 72.4 / -0.5
Hyndburn / 73.1 / 70.9 / -2.2
Pendle / 71.2 / 70.6 / -0.6
Ribble Valley / 78.0 / 75.5 / -2.5
Rossendale / 77.9 / 74.6 / -3.3
Lancashire / 74.8 / 73.4 / -1.4
North West / 74.1 / 74.6 / 0.5
England minus London / 77.0 / 77.6 / 0.6
Source: Annual Population Survey
Economic Activity, Employment and Self Employment
1.6 The economic activity rate (the proportion of the working age population who are active in the labour market, i.e. either in work, self employed or unemployed but actively looking for work) in East Lancashire is lower than the county, regional and national average. 71.6% of the population are economically active compared to 73.4% in Lancashire as a whole. Rossendale and the Ribble Valley exceed the county average but are below the national average, a change from the position in 2004, when economic activity rates were higher in Rossendale and the Ribble Valley than nationally average.
1.7 Sharp declines in economic activity in these areas, as well as in Blackburn with Darwen, have seen the level of economic activity across East Lancashire fall by 2.1 percentage points in 10 years.
1.8 The employment rate for those of working age in east Lancashire is 65%, almost 8 percentage points below the national average and almost 4 percentage points behind Lancashire a whole. Particularly stark are the low employment rates in Burnley and Pendle, whereas the employment rate in the Ribble Valley exceeds the national average. Across East Lancashire working age employment has fallen by 5.4 percentage points, more than twice the fall experienced by Lancashire as a whole, with significant implications for household incomes.
1.9 Employment rates across all age groups are lower in East Lancashire than across the county, however young people aged 24 and below have particularly low rates of employment compared to Lancashire and the nation as a whole.
1.10 The gap between male and female employment rates in East Lancashire is more than 2 percentage points wider than the national average, and female employment rates are particularly low, in part reflecting the low levels of economic participation amongst women of Asian background. In Pendle, fewer than half of all working age women are in employment, and the gap between male and female employment rates is some 22 percentage points.
1.11 One in eight East Lancashire workers are self employed, slightly less than the regional and county levels. Self-employment has increased by 0.9% over the past 10 years, a slower rate than the national and Lancashire average of 2.4%.
Working age employment rate, %: East Lancashire2004 / 2014 / 2004- 2014 change
No. / % / No. / % / No. / % pt
East Lancashire / 230,000 / 70.4 / 213,400 / 65.0 / -16,600 / -5.4