TERMS OF REFERENCE
sampling methodology for Labor Market Forecast Survey
Background Information AND PROJECT OBJECTIVE
Skills development has been identified as a key priority for the country in Moldova’s 2020 National Development Strategy. The Moldova Skills Data Capacity Building Project (World Bank grant) is directly involved in reform agenda by supporting the collection and analysis of labor market data, the absence of which is currently hampering the reform efforts of the Ministry of Labor, Social Projection, and Family (MLSPF), NEA, and Ministry of Education (MoE).
The development objective of the Moldova Skills Data Capacity Building Project is “to strengthen the Government of Moldova’s capacity for evidence-based policymaking in the area of skills and employment through supporting enhanced collection and analysis of data on workforce skills and labor market needs. The output will support the Government’s efforts to align the education system to labor market needs, thus promoting job creation.”
The project consists of 3 inter-related components.
-Component 1. Revised Employer Surveys on Demand for Skills
-Component 2. Revised Surveys of the Resident Working-age Population on Supply of Skills and Barriers to Employment
-Component 3. Capacity building
This assignment is focused on the first component, which shall assess the quality of the existing Labor Market Forecast Survey (LMFS) and design and implement a module on the demand for skills.
Currently, the National Employment Agency (NEA) produces indicators on past and future occupational demand using a brief questionnaire implemented on a nationally-representative sample of around 3,000 firms (a census of firms with 100+ employees and a sample of smaller firms). This survey was designed with the support of the project “Consolidation of migration management capacities in the Republic of Moldova,” financed by the European Union and implemented by the Swedish Public Employment Service, but is now run by the NEA with much more limited assistance. The survey allows obtaining general data on labor market trends and it is used to construct the Professions Barometer, which is used by NEA employees to provide guidance to job seekers and to plan training activities. However, these data do not provide details on the level and structure of labor demand and they utilize employers’ estimates of future occupational demands rather than tracking retrospective trends, which are more reliable. Moreover, most of the survey questions are not utilized in the analysis or reporting, so the survey can be used to better address the needs of data users.
Under the grant, the NEA would proceed with an assessment of the collection, analysis, and dissemination of the existing LMFS. To increase the relevance of labor demand forecasts, a new module on demand for cognitive and socioemotional skills will be developed on the basis of existing employer surveys of the World Bank Skills Towards Employment and Productivity (STEP) skills measurement program. The new module will be implemented as part of the 2016 LMFS.
OBJECTIVE
To this extent, the overarching objective of the assignment is to strengthen the Government of Moldova’s capacity for evidence-based policymaking in the area of skills and employment through supporting enhanced collection and analysis of data on labor market needs.
Specific objectives of the assignment are to:
-Assess the quality of the sampling methodology used in the Labor Market Forecast Survey (LMFS) implemented by the National Employment Agency (NEA)
-Recommend improvements in the sampling methodology aiming to enhance the representativeness of the analysis conducted using LMFS data
SCOPE OF WORK:
Review the quality regarding sample frame and sampling procedures of Labor Market Forecast Survey. Methodological quality is of key concern, especially the description of sampling.
Broadly speaking, the consultancy shall encompass twoareas, as follows:
- Assessment ofthe existing sampling methodology of LMFS, including:
-Review of the sampling frame
-Review of the sampling strategy
-Calculation of sampling weights
- Development of recommendations on how to improve the sampling methodology in order to enhance the LMFS’ impact on evidence-based policymaking
In elaborating the above listed areas, the Consultant should consider, as follows:
For the first task – Assessment ofthe existing sampling methodology of LMFS – the consultant will:
-Review existing LMFS documentation on sampling, complemented by interviews with relevant NEAstaff;
-Assess the quality of the sampling frame and sampling strategy used for LMFS with respect to their design parameters and impact on outcomes;
-Calculate sampling weights for 2015 and 2016 LMFS data using existing sampling strategy.
For the second task – Development of recommendations on how to improve the sampling methodology – on the basis of the first task, the Consultant will:
-Propose changes to current documentation on sampling and implementation procedures - to recommendimprovements/revisions to sampling methodology (sampling frame and/or sampling strategy) in order to improve representativeness of the collected data or to overcome identified weaknesses;
-Prepare recommended methodology for sampling weights calculation if the recommended revisions (of sampling frame and/or sampling strategy) are adopted in the future;
-Prepare implementation guidelines and accompanying instruments, if any, and produce training on the use of these instruments.
METHODOLOGY
The Consultant needs to coordinate with the beneficiary (i.e. NEA) the methodology used.
The consultant shall perform the work in close cooperation with the NEA staff or, at the NEA request, in consultation with other relevant institutions.
Data:
Evaluation will be based on data provided by the NEA. The Consultant will get access to the data sets and other documentation free-of-charge, but will treat them as confidential. Access to other necessary databases or reports that are not owned by NEA, will be facilitated by the NEA.
SPECIAL TERMS. DELIVERABLES/SPECIFIC OUTPUTS EXPECTED FROM CONSULTANT
This assignment is expected to commence in November2016.
One individual consultant will support the NEA in these activities.
Before starting any activities, the selected consultant will agree and coordinate with beneficiary the working methodology and timetable, as well proposals for work coordination. Beneficiary has the right to review, request clarifications and ask for amendments before the work starts or to guide in terms of the working methods and content.
Reports and other outputs must be clear and understandable. Large reports are not welcomed. Executive summaries are recommended.
The expected level of effort for carrying out the tasks is about 15 man-days. The consultant will have at least 8 days of field work with NEA. Final decision will be based on the results of the procurement process, as well as negotiations of schedule and costs. This assignment is expected to be completed by January16, 2017.
It is expected that the selected consultantwill produce reports indicated below. Preliminary deadlines have been indicated; further detailed planning will take place in agreement with the selected consultant.
-The consultant shall produce an inception report by the end of the 1stweek of contract implementation that would define implementation schedule and short review of provided documentation.
-The first interim report to be submitted at the end of the 4th week shall containthe full analysis and estimations described under the first task.
-The second interim report shall be submitted at the end of the 6th week and shall contain progress (including the incorporated comments and inputs received from NEA),proposed changes to current documentation on sampling and methodology for sampling weights calculation.
-Final report to be submitted not later than at the end of 8th week and will report results of remaining actions under the second task.
All the reported activities of the Consultant will be considered completed only upon the acceptance and formal approval by the beneficiary.
All reports and other outputs should be presented in English language.
SPECIFIC INPUTS TO BE PROVDIED BY THE NEA
NEA will provide current sampling methodology, policies, legal and organizational (or other relevant) documentation as in input to the selected consultant. Also, NEA experts working on sampling issues will be available for interviews.
For the duration of the assignment, the selected consultant will be provided by the NEA with access to the data from internal management system and other administrative and statistical data as needed, and venue for meetings/workshops under this assignment.
The staff of NEA will a) provide coordination support and/or other inputs, as needed; b) at all stages identify the need and coordinate the consultation of the product; c) create an effective participatory environment.
To additionally inform the consultant’s work, the NEA will explain the general framework behind this assignment.
If needed, the NEA will organize working groups with participation of representatives from the relevant institutions/organizations to inform consultant work and to accept the main development directions of the work.
CONDITIONS / SPECIFIC CRITERIA
The consultant will be chosen based upon the following criteria:
-expertise and experience in providing technical assistance and consulting services in the area of sampling and weighting for large-scale surveys;
-relevant expertise and experiences of providing consulting services onlabor market domain with a track record of advice/engagement on employer surveys, will be a strong asset
-relevant qualification, in particular, the consultant should have:
Essential qualifications and experience
-Advanced degree in in econometrics, statistics, or related discipline;
-At least 7 years of experience in sampling and weighting for large-scale complex household or/and employer surveys;
-Excellent writing and good analysis aptitude. Proven experience in conducting high quality analysis and producing high quality reports in the areas of this Terms of Reference;
The consultant will report to NEA management. Any administrative issues should be addressed to the team of the Moldova Skills Data Capacity Building Project.
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