Saint Louis Market
Saint Louis Market
PREPARED BY
Hal Ball
Senior VP/Principal Saint Louis Industrial
INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT
2
3
Market Key Statistics
Leasing
6
Rent
8
Construction
9
Under Construction Properties
Sales
11
12
14
17
21
23
25
Sales Past 12 Months
Economy
Market Submarkets
Supply Demand Trends
Rent Vacancy
Sale Trends
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805. Overview
Saint Louis Industrial
12 Mo Deliveries in SF Vacancy Rate
12 Mo Net Absorption in SF
12 Mo Rent Growth
3.5 M 3.1 M 4.6% 2.0%
Industrial vacancies have steadily declined since 2011 and recovered from recession-induced expansion.
Improved occupancies gave developers confidence to kick-start construction, and demand has held strong. Net absorption and supply hit cyclical peaks in 2017, when both exceeded 5 million SF. Though the pace of was approximately 4 million SF under construction heading in 19Q1. Gains continued at a fast clip into early
2019, building on a four-year stretch of strong growth.
Sales volume topped $300 million every year since 2013 and did so again in 2018, despite a slowdown in investment from the previous three years. additions and move-ins slowed throughout 2018, there
KEY INDICATORS
Net Absorption Under
SF Construction
Current Quarter RBA Vacancy Rate Asking Rent Availability Rate Deliveries SF
Logistics 205,860,332 5.4% $4.90 9.4% (708,448) 03,419,632
Specialized Industrial 80,531,302 2.6% $5.37 4.7% 28,067 0315,000
Flex 17,217,426 5.5% $10.95 8.7% 019,918 938,091
Market 303,609,060 4.6% $5.38 8.1% 0(660,463) 4,672,723
Historical Forecast
Average Average
Annual Trends 12 Month Peak When Trough When
Vacancy Change (YOY) 0% 7.7% 5.7% 11.1% 2009 Q3 4.1% 2018 Q3
Net Absorption SF 3.1 M 2,269,870 1,960,981 8,499,186 2017 Q3 (7,019,226) 2009 Q3
Deliveries SF 3.5 M 2,951,840 4,163,348 6,899,452 2017 Q4 85,120 2013 Q1
Rent Growth 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 4.3% 2017 Q3 -3.7% 2010 Q2
$0 $666.4M N/A $243.9M $354 M Sales Volume 2011 Q1 2004 Q1
4/16/2019
Page 2
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Saint Louis Industrial
After exceeding 10% at the start of this cycle, vacancies remained compressed by more than half that into early
2019. Strong demand and minimal supply earlier facilitated the sharp decline. In fact, even as supply has the sole tenant. picked up since 2016, demand continued to outperform.
SF Wentzville Logistics Center opened in 17Q2 and was one of the metro's largest deliveries this cycle.
NorthPoint Development owns the facility, with GMC as Nearly 80% of all industrial space delivered since the start of 2016 was occupied as of 19Q1. Also, Amazon recently committed to further expanding its footprint in the metro, moving focus from the Illinois Submarket to the St. Charles County Submarket. In March 2018, the ecommerce giant signed for 855,000 SF at the industrial building under construction on 4000 Premier Pkwy in St.
Charles. Amazon will take occupancy when the building Construction in the past two years has been concentrated in the Illinois and Airport Submarkets.
Build-to-suit projects have driven much of the recent demand, representing the five largest deliveries of the past two years. One of the largest was a Schnucks
925,000-SF distribution facility on North Hanley Road in
Berkeley, MO. Clayco Inc. constructed the property, and Schnucks took occupancy in August 2016. The 629,000- completes in 19Q2.
NET ABSORPTION, NET DELIVERIES VACANCY
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 3
Saint Louis Industrial
VACANCY RATE
AVAILABILITY RATE
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 4
Saint Louis Industrial
12 MONTH NET ABSORPTION SF IN SELECTED BUILDINGS
Net Absorption SF
Building Name/Address Submarket Bldg SF Vacant SF
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 12 Month
13930 Missouri Bottom Rd 700,548 North County Ind 850,000 00000
4327 Gustine Ave 584,124 655,059 000350,059 0
St Louis City South Ind
Airport Ind 380,000 380,000 00000
310 James S McDonnell Blvd
1800 N Broadway 240,642 240,642 00000
St Louis City North Ind
9151-9205 Latty Ave Airport Ind 220,373 220,000 000220,000 0
3728 Market St 1,077,041 216,749 00000
St Louis City South Ind
Aviator Business Park Airport Ind 548,850 178,186 00332,650 00
Wentzville Distribution Center 420,000 146,181 00000
St. Louis Commerce Center II 337,044 135,492 00000
100-150 St. Clair Industrial Park 163,191 134,497 00Franklin County Ind 000
Warehouse Building 130,000 130,000 00Earth City Ind 000
St Charles County Ind
St Louis City North Ind
Fenton Logistics Park (1) 168,766 129,362 00Fenton Ind 39,404 051,772
Fenton Logistics Park (2) 159,422 123,187 00Fenton Ind 36,235 00
Bussen Underground Warehouse 332,158 119,000 00South County Ind 000
Premier 370 Business Park 299,830 114,230 00000
Hazelwood Logistics Center 6 269,545 111,299 00Airport Ind 000
Hazelwood Logistics Center 7 108,273 108,273 00000Airport Ind
Subtotal Primary Competitors
Remaining Saint Louis Market
Total Saint Louis Market
St Charles County Ind
408,289 6,360,194 3,771,770 00570,059 51,772
297,248,866 13,666,257 (680,725) (712,235) 0(712,449) 0
303,609,060 14,074,546 (110,666) (660,463) 03,059,321 0
4/16/2019
Page 5
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Saint Louis Industrial
Robust leasing and a high proportion of build-to-suits this cycle prompted strong rent growth, with annual gains that exceeded 3% since 2015. This period of growth has continued into early 2019, albeit with a minor of 2019. deceleration in pace. All told, rents have increased by roughly 15% since the start of the cycle on the back of this growth.
National Index by roughly 35%, and growth this cycle has fallen short, as well—though rents in St. Louis surpassed those of neighboring Kansas City at the start Average rents for properties built in the past year fall behind the market’s overall rents by nearly 20%.
Chesterfield/Hwy-40 has the highest asking rents out of any submarket in the metro at nearly $10.80/SF, roughly double the metro's average of about $5.30/SF.
While recent performance improved within the market,
St. Louis rents typically underperform compared with those in other metros. Asking rents fall behind the MARKET RENT GROWTH (YOY)
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 6
Rent
Saint Louis Industrial
MARKET RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 7 Construction
Saint Louis Industrial
Deliveries set a record in 2017, with roughly 6 million SF of RBA opening. Though more than 4 million SF was underway at the start of 2019, nearly 60% was preleased. The largest project under construction at the beginning of 2019 was Amazon’s Fulfillment Center, a 5
Star, 855,000-SF facility that broke ground in March
2018 and is due to complete by the end of 19Q2.
Wentzville Logistics Center, a 629,000-SF facility occupied by General Motors. NorthPoint Development owns the property, which opened in 17Q2. Build-to-suit projects also delivered for Menard’s distribution and Best
Buy. Another large project, the 625,000-SF Gateway
East 624 in Edwardsville, opened in 17Q1 and is fully leased to GEODIS. Roughly 30% of space delivered since the beginning of 2017 was still available as of early
2019.
One of the largest projects in the past two years was the DELIVERIES DEMOLITIONS
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 8
Under Construction Properties
Saint Louis Industrial
Properties Square Feet Percent of Inventory Preleased
22 4,672,723 1.6% 61.0%
UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTIES
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Property Name/Address Rating Bldg SF Stories Start Complete Developer/Owner
Premier 370 Business Pa… Duke Realty Corporation
Duke Realty Corporation
1
855,000 -Mar-2018 May-2019
4000 Premier Pky
Located at Gateway Com… -
2
674,752 1Oct-2018 Aug-2019
590,000 -Jul-2015 May-2019
100 Inner Park Dr
Gateway Commerce Center, LLC.
Monsanto Expansion - P… -
3
700 Chesterfield Pky W
Monsanto Company
Gateway Tradeport: BLD… -
-
4
1543,740 Jan-2019 Jul-2019
I-270 I-255 @ Highway 1
FedEx Ground -
5
-
1491,252 Sep-2018 Sep-2019
-315,000 Oct-2018 Sep-2020
10000 Elm Point Rd
100 Hwy -
6
Melton Machine Control Comp…
Pfizer Clayco Inc.
Pfizer, Inc.
7
5295,000 Jul-2017 Jun-2019
875 Chesterfield Pky W
4/16/2019
Page 9
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Under Construction Properties
Saint Louis Industrial
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Property Name/Address Rating Bldg SF Stories Start Complete Developer/Owner
Westgate 200 -
8
-
200,200 1Mar-2019 Dec-2019
38xx Millstone Pky
FLP V -
-
9
182,400 1Jan-2019 Sep-2019
Fenton Logistics Park Blvd
Building IV KP Development
-
10
158,400 -May-2017 May-2019
2112 Fenton Logistics Park
2315 Millpark Dr Clearpath Development LLC
11
Thomas Neal Kaiman
92,450 1Feb-2019 Feb-2020
71,280 1Jan-2019 Sep-2019
47,600 1Apr-2016 Aug-2019
30,000 -Aug-2018 Jun-2019
Building VI -
12
-
Fenton Logistics Park
900 Fairway Park Dr
13
U S Storage Inc
FAIRWAY PARK LOT 3 LLC
TBD Corporate Hills Dr -
14
-
515 Westport Plaza Dr -
15
128,600 Nov-2018 Sep-2019
128,500 Jan-2019 Aug-2019
120,000 Dec-2017 Jun-2019
119,251 Jan-2018 May-2019
115,958 Dec-2018 Dec-2019
19,500 Jan-2018 May-2019
Construction Co
715 W Park Rd -
16
-
Neosho and Business L… -
17
-
750 Luetkenhaus Blvd -
18
-
Meridian Medical Techno… -
19
2555 Hermelin Dr
Hutkin Development Company
120 Resource Dr -
20
Lynn P Melson Tamara
760 Luetkenhaus Blvd.,… -
21
-
3,840 1Jan-2018 May-2019
760 Luetkenhaus Blvd
750 Casino Center Dr -
22
-
0-Aug-2018 Jan-2020
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 10 Sales
Saint Louis Industrial
Investment has increased in recent years, and sales volume exceeded $300 million annually since 2013.
Vacancy compression this cycle has translated into higher sales prices, and the average price per square foot peaked near $83.50/SF at the start of the cycle.
Pricing has dipped since, dropping near the cycle low in
2018. Four trades made in the late 2017 eclipsed the largest confirmed sale in 2018—the $44 million ($43/SF) trade of Lakeview Commerce Center in June. However, by individual transactions, the Lakeview Commerce purchase was the largest by volume in the past year.
A bulk portfolio purchase by the Blackstone Group significantly boosted last year’s volume and eclipsed other sales to date by nature. The New York-based private equity firm acquired a $590 million portfolio in
August, which mostly included properties in the Sacramento and St. Louis metros. Also notable was the November portfolio sale of Gateway East in the Illinois
Submarket for $64 million ($56/SF), which included the industrial distribution buildings at 349 and 3051 Gateway
Commerce Drive. The properties total over 1 million SF combined and were 100% occupied by logistics firms
Geodis and DB Schenker when they sold.
SALES VOLUME MARKET SALE PRICE PER SF
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 11
Sales Past 12 Months
Saint Louis Industrial
Sale Comparables Avg. Cap Rate Avg. Price/SF
Avg. Vacancy At Sale
412 8.2% $38 2.9%
SALE COMPARABLE LOCATIONS
SALE COMPARABLES SUMMARY STATISTICS
Sales Attributes Low Average Median High
Sale Price $27,000 $2,047,113 $825,000 $44,178,000
Price Per SF $38 $0.38 $44 $10,813
8.2% 8.2% Cap Rate 5.6% 12.4%
Time Since Sale in Months 0.0 6.4 6.3 12.0
Median Average Property Attributes Low High
Building SF 578 45,001 20,000 1,017,780
Ceiling Height 8' 17'2" 16' 40'
Docks 06289
Vacancy Rate At Sale 0% 2.9% 0% 100%
Year Built 1855 1972 1975 2019
Star Rating
2.2
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 12
Sales Past 12 Months
Saint Louis Industrial
RECENT SIGNIFICANT SALES
Yr Built
Property Sale
Property Name - Address Rating Bldg SF Vacancy Sale Date Price Price/SF Cap Rate
Lakeview Commerce Ce…
1
-2006 1,017,780 0% 6/25/2018 $44,178,000 $43 -
4015 Lakeview Corporate Dr
Dial Distribution Center
2
3
812,000 -1998 $25,775,000 0% 11/12/2018 $32 -
242,630 -1966 $11,212,000 0% 7/12/2018 $46 7.3%
119,680 -2008 $10,000,000 0% 12/13/2018 $84 7.2%
232,556 -1983 $9,100,000 100% 3/4/2019 $39 10.0%
100,021 -2005 $8,700,000 0% 2/13/2019 $87 8.3%
115,438 -2000 $7,672,444 0% 11/19/2018 $66 -
112,850 -2002 $7,500,436 0% 11/19/2018 $66 -
105,475 -2006 $7,010,265 0% 11/19/2018 $66 -
105,282 -2006 $6,997,438 0% 11/19/2018 $66 -
96,483 -2001 $6,412,623 0% 11/19/2018 $66 -
1 Gateway Commerce Ce…
8950 Pershall Rd
Ashley Furniture Headqu…
4
9791 S Green Park Industr…
7101 Hazelwood Ave
5
11650 Lakeside Crossin…
6
Lambert Pointe B
7
613-627 Lambert Pointe Dr
Lambert Pointe D
8
620-638 Lambert Pointe Dr
Lambert Pointe E
9
629-639 Lambert Pointe Dr
Lambert Pointe F
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
641-659 Lambert Pointe Dr
Lambert Pointe C
600-610 Lambert Pointe Dr
849 Carrico Rd
578 0% --$6,250,000 10/19/2018 $10,813 -
89,085 2000 0% -$5,920,924 11/19/2018 $66 -
Lambert Pointe A 1987 0% -$5,150,000 1/4/2019 37,000 $139 6.0%
601-611 Lambert Pointe Dr
3025 S Hanley Rd
12/10/2018 130,000 1975 0% -$5,125,000 $39 8.5%
401 W South Service Rd
1994 0% -$5,000,000 110,000 2/19/2019 $45 -
1995 0% -$5,000,000 49,725 6/27/2018 $101 7.1%
112,000 1978 0% -$4,828,631 11/14/2018 $43 -
624,129 2017 0% -$4,812,000 4/23/2018 -$7.71
45,071 2008 0% -$4,650,000 5/31/2018 -$103
Fed Ex
13679 Rider Trail N
FedEx
13342 Lakefront Dr
Wainright Industries
17 Cermak Blvd
Gateway East
349 Gateway Commerce…
2300 Ball Dr
4/16/2019
Page 13
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805. Economy
Saint Louis Industrial
Structural issues, such as outward population migration and the decline of a once-booming manufacturing industry, set back St. Louis’ economic growth from the beginning of the cycle. Employment in this sector decreased roughly 16% over the past decade and has yet to return to prerecession figures, in spite of recent growth. Employers and industry observers have pointed to a lack of available skilled workers to fill manufacturing jobs. At least a portion of this dearth of skilled labor is rooted in the focus on college degrees, which has shifted potential workers away from manufacturing and trade jobs, according to observers. taking its place. In fact, the St. Louis metro had one of the most-consistent patterns of negative net migration this cycle. Along with general population decline, the metro’s baby boomer population increased by roughly
30% from 2011 to 2017.
Even so, there are some reasons for optimism, as well.
Developers have expressed genuine interest in development downtown to help the city move beyond its socioeconomic struggles. Most well-known is the $380 million Gateway Arch grounds renovation, followed by the $260 million development of Ballpark Village at
Busch Stadium. The development is currently in Phase II and will have over 700,000 SF of office space and more than 300 apartment units, along with the 216-room Live!
By Loews luxury hotel. The Cordish Companies and St.
Louis Cardinals estimated that they had roughly 25% of apartment community preleased as of early January
2019, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. More than 2,500 jobs are expected to be created by the endeavor, with 1,000 of them being permanent. This will be the first high-end office space delivered to the downtown area since the late 1980s.
Some say the metro also suffered a second minirecession in 2012 and additional job losses followed, this time in the government, construction, and information sectors. While information sector losses have affected numerous metros due to shifts in the corporate landscape, which have included mergers and downsizing, negative job growth in the government sector is more troublesome. Former Missouri governor
Eric Greitens initiated cuts in state government jobs, instead, supporting privatization of many such jobs. It remains to be seen whether private corporations step in to offer jobs and there are enough workers in the metro to fill them.
Overall, St. Louis has generated employment gains over the past few years, and the unemployment rate remained below 3.5% through 19Q1. One of the biggest drivers of the local economy is education and health services, which represents more than 18% of metro-wide employment. It is also one of the few industries in which
St. Louis has a greater concentration of employment than does the nation. The metro is home to nine Fortune
500 companies, and the majority are in the healthcare industry, Centene Corporation plans to expand its headquarters in Clayton, which would result in as many as 1,000 new healthcare positions, as well as numerous Years of economic struggle have propagated a number of growth-impeding issues for the metro. St. Louis has had bad publicity for having one of the highest violentcrime rates in the country—it was named the mostviolent city in the U.S. by the FBI in September 2018, following a second-place ranking last year. The metro has also struggled with a declining and aging population.
The U.S. Census Bureau documented its shrinking population, which resulted in St. Louis moving out of the nation’s top 20 most populous metros, with Baltimore construction jobs.
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 14
Economy
Saint Louis Industrial
SAINT LOUIS EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY IN THOUSANDS
Current Jobs Current Growth 10 Yr Historical 5 Yr Forecast
NAICS Industry Jobs LQ Market US Market US Market US
Manufacturing 119 -0.03% 1005.5 2.76% 1.63% 0.41% -1.01% -1.46%
1008.5 261 0.47% -0.26% 1.10% 1.00% 0.13% 0.15%
Retail Trade 956.3 141 0.09% -2.10% 0.22% 0.77% 0.16% 0.18%
Financial Activities 1122.6 90 1.37% 1.44% 1.39% 0.84% 0.25% 0.64%
150 Government 720.6 -1.20% 0.51% 0.51% -0.03% 0.34% 0.55%
65 857.6 -0.42% -1.48% 4.29% 1.35% 0.90% 1.03%
262 1178.6 2.07% 2.65% 2.17% 2.10% 0.65% 0.96%
217 1095.4 1.60% -0.20% 2.71% 2.38% 0.81% 1.20%
28 Information 1057.7 -1.03% -0.11% 0.29% -0.13% 0.07% 0.00%
152 Leisure and Hospitality 988.6 1.02% 0.82% 2.42% 2.37% 0.99% 1.01%
54 Other Services 979.4 -0.38% 3.90% 1.31% 0.87% 0.35% 0.20%
1,398 Total Employment 1.0 0.68% 0.95% 1.76% 1.26% 0.41% 0.56%
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Natural Resources, Mining and Construction
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Source: Moody's Analytics
LQ = Location Quotient
YEAR OVER YEAR JOB GROWTH
Source: Moody’s Analytics
4/16/2019
Page 15
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805. Economy
Saint Louis Industrial
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Current Level Current Change 10-Year Change
Forecast Change (5 Yrs)
Demographic Category Metro Metro Metro U.S. U.S. U.S. Metro U.S.
0.1% 0.1% 328,757,125 2,812,544 Population 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6%
Households 0.6% 0.7% 126,771,516 1,183,586 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0%
Median Household Income 2.2% 4.4% $64,350 $65,873 3.7% 2.4% 3.2% 2.8%
163,320 Labor Force 0.3% 1.5% 1,476,450 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
3.8% Unemployment 3.3% -0.2% -0.5% ---0.3% -0.6%
Source: Moody’s Analytics
POPULATION GROWTH LABOR FORCE GROWTH INCOME GROWTH
Source: Moody's Analytics
4/16/2019
Page 16
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805. Submarkets
Saint Louis Industrial
SAINT LOUIS SUBMARKETS
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 17
Submarkets
Saint Louis Industrial
SUBMARKET INVENTORY
Inventory 12 Month Deliveries Under Construction
No. SF (000) % Market Rank Submarket Bldgs Bldgs SF (000) Percent Rank Bldgs SF (000) Percent Rank
Airport 1251 3020,697 6.8% 6558 2.7% 3---
29135 0% 00% --Bond County 24 00--
4Clinton County 22 26 852 0.3% 00% --00--
5Crawford County 21 0.5% 40 1,396 000% -0---
6Earth City 57.7% 23,412 317 000% -1---
2.0% 5,985 163 3Chesterfield/Hwy-40 15 330 0.5% 62885 14.8% 3
7225 9,403 3.1% Fenton 11 2328 3.5% 53412 4.4% 4
08285 10,245 3.4% 900% -53364 3.5%
Franklin County
9Hanley 282 6,324 2.1% 714 000% -116 0.3%
10 Illinois 1811 46,077 15.2% 25823 1.8% 241,295 2.8%
010 0230 9,786 3.2% -0% -0--
11 Innerbelt E of 170
12 Innerbelt W of 170 384 11,461 3.8% 8000% -0---
13 Jefferson County 295 5,791 1.9% 16 000% -0---
14 Jersey County 12 123 0% 25 000% -0---
15 Lincoln County 20 49 1,410 0.5% 000% -0---
16 Macoupin County 23 573 0.2% 29 000% -0---
17 Monroe County 19 0.5% 24 1,653 000% -0---
18 North County 12 3.1% 9,295 165 31,322 14.2% 10---
19 South County 13 3.0% 9,177 287 7110 0.1% 0---
20 St Charles County 410.6% 32,275 849 4415 1.3% 371,609 5.0% 1
21 St Louis City North 12.8% 38,757 821 -00% -200--
22 St Louis City South 11.9% 36,256 993 -3000% -0--
23 Warren County 0.7% 2,200 75 18 000% -0---
24 West County 1.6% 4,778 17 -149 000% -0--
25 Westport 423 15,464 5.1% 7000% -192 0.6% 6
4/16/2019
Page 18
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805. Submarkets
Saint Louis Industrial
SUBMARKET RENT
Asking Rent 12 Month Asking Rent Annualized Quarterly Rent
No. Submarket Per SF Rank Growth Rank Growth Rank
1.9% Airport 1$5.18 13 18 -1.7% 5
20.6% $4.38 19 24 -1.1% 3
Bond County
3Chesterfield/Hwy-40 2.9% $10.67 14-3.3% 24
4Clinton County 2.6% $3.66 -2.5% 18 25 6
5Crawford County 1.8% $4.05 -2.1% 11 22 22
6Earth City 0.6% $5.54 -2.5% 17 12 25
Fenton 751.9% $7.49 0.5% 120
8$4.05 2.3% 10 Franklin County 23 -2.2% 12
9Hanley $7.73 1.9% 19 3-2.1% 8
18 $4.42 2.1% 13 -2.6% 20
14 $5.10 2.0% 17 -2.4% 13
8$6.29 0.7% 23 -2.1% 9
10 Illinois
11 Innerbelt E of 170
12 Innerbelt W of 170
13 Jefferson County $6.38 2.4% 9-2.4% 714
14 Jersey County $5.06 2.5% -2.5% 16 15 8
15 Lincoln County $5.83 3.0% -2.7% 21 11 3
16 Macoupin County $4.32 2.8% -2.5% 15 21 5
17 Monroe County $8.44 3.8% -3.1% 23 21
18 North County $4.96 2.1% -1.9% 716 14
19 South County $6.15 2.0% -3.9% 10 16 25
20 St Charles County $6.19 2.3% -1.6% 911 4
21 St Louis City North $3.99 2.6% -0.7% 724 2
22 St Louis City South $4.36 2.3% -2.6% 20 12 19
23 Warren County $4.79 2.0% -2.1% 17 15 10
24 West County $7.73 3.0% -2.8% 4222
25 Westport $6.82 1.9% -1.8% 6621
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 19 Submarkets
Saint Louis Industrial
SUBMARKET VACANCY NET ABSORPTION
Vacancy 12 Month Net Absorption
No. Percent Submarket SF Rank SF % of Inv Rank Construct. Ratio
Airport 15.0% 17 3.6% 31,040,245 746,230 0.5
2---0% 0Bond County --
4Clinton County 2,230 0.3% 23.9% 13 33,404 -
5Crawford County 0.8% 3.4% 947,573 11,700 6-
6Earth City 9.4% -1.2% (272,879) 2,198,334 20 25 -
3Chesterfield/Hwy-40 162,745 2.7% 10 8,928 0.1% 16 3.4
Fenton 7466,253 182,971 5.0% 1.9% 16 61.8
8186,200 117,580 1.8% 1.1% 87-
9Hanley 177,375 34,903 2.8% 0.6% 11 12 -
2,390,457 (11,608) 5.2% 0% 18 20 -
Franklin County
10 Illinois
11 Innerbelt E of 170 26,833 0.3% 48,670 380.5% -
12 Innerbelt W of 170 345,250 3.0% (42,872) -0.4% 12 22 -
13 Jefferson County 43,573 0.8% 10,541 0.2% 515 -
14 Jersey County 25,800 21.0% (25,800) -21.0% 21 22 -
15 Lincoln County --43,901 3.1% 10 --
16 Macoupin County 3,500 0.6% 17 2,500 0.4% 4-
17 Monroe County 0.1% 18 ---1,484 -
18 North County 8.7% 11,577,153 17.0% 21 812,668 0.8
19 South County 0.4% 418,767 4.6% 14 39,345 11 0.3
20 St Charles County 0.9% 1,278,391 4.0% 13 299,882 51.4
21 St Louis City North 1.0% 1,837,693 4.7% 15 401,709 4-
22 St Louis City South 2.1% 832,754 2.3% 9754,053 -2
23 Warren County 0.7% 1,936 0.1% 16,299 -114
24 West County -1.3% 1.4% (61,556) -23 67,836 7
19 980,521 24 6.3% -0.8% (129,604) -
25 Westport
4/16/2019
Page 20
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805. Supply Demand Trends
Saint Louis Industrial
OVERALL SUPPLY DEMAND
Inventory Net Absorption
Year SF SF Growth % Growth SF % of Inv Construction Ratio
1,663,030 320,089,084 2023 2,967,667 0.9% 0.5% 1.8
1,432,320 317,121,417 2022 3,135,827 1.0% 0.5% 2.2
1,633,000 313,985,590 2021 3,382,329 1.1% 0.5% 2.1
1,983,782 310,603,261 2020 3,145,613 1.0% 0.6% 1.6
2,270,010 307,457,648 2019 4,220,794 1.4% 0.7% 1.9
(771,129) 303,609,060 YTD 372,206 0.1% -0.3% -
4,027,595 2018 303,236,854 1.3% 1.6% 4,942,098 0.8
5,980,145 2017 299,209,259 2.0% 2.5% 7,573,290 0.8
4,440,927 2016 293,229,114 1.5% 2.4% 7,050,403 0.6
1,361,679 2015 288,788,187 0.5% 1.1% 3,177,364 0.4
907,396 2014 287,426,508 0.3% 1.9% 5,450,446 0.2
289,861 2013 286,519,112 0.1% 0.8% 2,177,718 0.1
20,560 2012 286,229,251 0% 0.3% 719,933 0
2011 286,208,691 -0.5% 328,288 0.1% (1,351,752) -
(4,712,405) 2010 285,880,403 0.6% -1.6% 1,745,818 -
944,508 2009 290,592,808 -2.2% 0.3% (6,483,249) -
1,237,106 2008 289,648,300 0.9% 0.4% 2,572,224 0.5
3,884,146 2007 288,411,194 -0.1% 1.4% (419,775) -
SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY DEMAND
Inventory Net Absorption
Year % of Inv SF SF Growth % Growth SF Construction Ratio
81,279,567 2023 0% 108,900 0.1% 30,603 3.6
81,170,667 2022 115,082 0.1% 26,985 0% 4.3
81,055,585 2021 124,128 0.2% 51,371 0.1% 2.4
80,931,457 2020 407,530 0.5% 0% (21,427) -
80,523,927 2019 (7,375) 0% (496,592) -0.6% -
0% 0YTD 80,531,302 (290,112) -0.4% -
2018 80,531,302 1,395,650 1.7% 383,400 0.5% 0.3
2017 80,147,902 93,827 0.1% (276,307) -0.3% -
2016 80,424,209 1.6% 279,383 0.3% 1,261,553 0.2
2015 80,144,826 1.1% 339,892 0.4% 882,148 0.4
2014 79,804,934 1.4% 620,000 0.8% 1,140,605 0.5
2013 79,184,934 -0.2% (179,167) -0.2% (120,239) -
2012 79,364,101 0% (103,707) -0.1% 34,187 -
2011 79,467,808 139,000 0.2% -(298,274) -0.4%
2010 79,328,808 (5,226,260) -6.2% -(617,307) -0.8%
2009 84,555,068 (146,300) -0.2% -(5,447,962) -6.4%
2008 84,701,368 (1,140,351) -1.3% -(269,870) -0.3%
2007 85,841,719 64,224 0.1% -(1,088,182) -1.3%
4/16/2019
Page 21
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Supply Demand Trends
Saint Louis Industrial
LOGISTICS SUPPLY DEMAND
Inventory Net Absorption
Year SF SF Growth % Growth SF % of Inv Construction Ratio
1,502,716 219,855,293 2023 2,658,027 1.2% 0.7% 1.8
1,287,300 217,197,266 2022 2,808,627 1.3% 0.6% 2.2
1,444,884 214,388,639 2021 3,029,403 1.4% 0.7% 2.1
1,632,637 211,359,236 2020 2,567,390 1.2% 0.8% 1.6
2,473,343 208,791,846 2019 3,303,720 1.6% 1.2% 1.3
(492,327) 205,860,332 YTD 372,206 0.2% -0.2% -
3,614,195 2018 205,488,126 1.8% 1.7% 3,552,479 1.0
6,256,452 2017 201,873,931 3.2% 3.5% 7,145,744 0.9
4,146,544 2016 195,617,479 2.2% 2.9% 5,606,664 0.7
942,787 2015 191,470,935 0.5% 1.1% 2,047,622 0.5
283,924 2014 190,528,148 0.1% 2.3% 4,292,520 0.1
507,778 2013 190,244,224 0.3% 1.1% 2,066,082 0.2
(29,180) 2012 189,736,446 0% 0.4% 811,269 -
2011 189,765,626 -0.5% 185,388 0.1% (927,762) -
454,813 2010 189,580,238 1.2% 0.2% 2,182,200 0.2
983,073 2009 189,125,425 -0.6% 0.5% (1,167,692) -
2,351,667 2008 188,142,352 1.5% 1.3% 2,846,638 0.8
3,757,389 2007 185,790,685 0.3% 2.1% 548,710 6.8
FLEX SUPPLY DEMAND
Inventory Net Absorption
SF % Growth SF Year SF Growth % of Inv Construction Ratio
18,954,224 2023 200,740 0.7% 1.1% 129,711 1.5
18,753,484 2022 212,118 0.6% 1.1% 118,035 1.8
18,541,366 2021 228,798 0.7% 1.2% 136,745 1.7
18,312,568 2020 170,693 2.0% 0.9% 372,572 0.5
18,141,875 2019 924,449 1.6% 5.4% 293,259 3.2
17,217,426 YTD 00.1% 0% 11,310 0
2018 17,217,426 0% 30,000 0.2% (6,031) -
2017 17,187,426 00% 333,719 1.9% 0
0.1% 15,000 2016 17,187,426 182,186 1.1% 0.1
0.5% 79,000 2015 17,172,426 247,594 1.4% 0.3
0% 3,472 2014 17,093,426 17,321 0.1% 0.2
(38,750) 2013 17,089,954 1.4% --0.2% 231,875
153,447 2012 17,128,704 -0.7% 0.9% (125,523) -
3,900 2011 16,975,257 -0.7% 0% (125,716) -
0.3% 59,042 180,925 2010 16,971,357 1.1% 0.3
0.6% 107,735 132,405 2009 16,912,315 0.8% 0.8
0.2% 25,790 (4,544) 2008 16,804,580 0% -
2007 16,778,790 62,533 0.4% 119,697 0.7% 0.5
4/16/2019
Page 22
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805. Rent Vacancy
Saint Louis Industrial
OVERALL RENT VACANCY
Market Rent Vacancy
Year Per SF Index % Growth Vs Hist Peak SF Percent Ppts Chg
2023 $5.48 111 -0.2% 0.7% 6.6% 0.4% 21,141,222
2022 $5.49 111 0.2% 6.3% 19,832,319 0.9% 0.5%
2021 $5.48 111 0% 5.8% 18,123,847 0.6% 0.5%
0.6% 0.6% 16,368,918 2020 $5.48 111 5.3% 0.3%
0.1% 0.1% 15,197,734 2019 $5.45 110 4.9% 0.7%
-1.3% -1.3% 14,074,546 YTD $5.38 109 4.6% 0.4%
2018 0% 3.6% 12,931,211 $5.45 110 4.3% -0.4%
-3.5% 2017 3.7% 13,844,105 $5.26 106 4.6% -0.6%
-7.0% 2016 3.6% 15,452,859 $5.07 103 5.3% -1.0%
-10.2% 2015 3.3% 18,062,335 $4.89 99 6.3% -0.7%
96 2014 1.7% 19,878,020 $4.74 6.9% -1.6% -13.0%
94 2013 2.1% 24,441,070 $4.66 8.5% -0.7% -14.4%
92 2012 0.5% 26,328,927 $4.56 9.2% -0.3% -16.2%
92 2011 -2.4% 27,229,300 $4.54 9.5% 0.6% -16.7%
94 2010 -2.6% 25,549,260 $4.65 8.9% -14.6% -2.1%
97 2009 -3.4% 32,007,483 $4.78 11.0% -12.3% 2.5%
100 2008 -0.7% 24,579,726 $4.94 8.5% -9.3% -0.5%
101 2007 0.2% 25,914,844 $4.98 9.0% -8.6% 1.4%
SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIAL RENT VACANCY
Market Rent Vacancy
Year Percent Per SF Index % Growth Vs Hist Peak SF Ppts Chg
2023 3.6% $5.65 118 0.3% 2.2% 0.1% 2,938,384
2022 3.5% $5.63 118 0.6% 2,860,019 2.0% 0.1%
2021 3.4% $5.60 117 0.5% 2,771,865 1.3% 0.1%
2020 3.3% $5.57 117 1.3% 2,699,033 0.8% 0.5%
2019 2.8% $5.50 115 -0.5% 2,268,425 -0.5% 0.6%
YTD 2.6% $5.37 113 -2.9% 2,070,786 -2.9% 0.4%
2018 $5.53 2.2% 116 5.4% 1,780,674 0% -1.3%
2017 $5.24 3.5% 110 3.0% 2,792,924 -0.4% -5.1%
2016 $5.09 3.9% 107 4.2% 3,163,058 -1.2% -7.9%
2015 $4.89 5.2% 102 4.1% 4,145,228 -0.7% -11.6%
2014 $4.69 5.9% 98 2.3% 4,687,484 -0.7% -15.0%
96 -17.0% 2013 $4.59 6.6% 2.6% 5,228,089 -0.1%
94 -19.1% 2012 $4.47 6.7% 1.0% 5,287,017 -0.2%
93 -19.9% 2011 $4.43 6.8% -2.4% 5,424,911 0.5%
95 -17.9% 2010 $4.54 6.3% -2.6% 4,987,637 -5.1%
98 -15.7% 2009 $4.66 11.3% -2.3% 9,596,590 6.3%
100 -13.7% 2008 $4.77 5.1% -1.7% 4,294,928 -0.9%
102 -12.2% 2007 $4.85 6.0% -1.1% 5,165,409 1.3%
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 23
Rent Vacancy
Saint Louis Industrial
LOGISTICS RENT VACANCY
Market Rent Vacancy
Year Per SF Index % Growth Vs Hist Peak SF Percent Ppts Chg
2023 $4.92 107 -0.3% -0.3% 7.5% 0.4% 16,548,940
2022 $4.93 107 0% 0% 7.1% 15,389,644 0.6%
-0.1% -0.2% 13,863,624 2021 $4.93 107 6.5% 0.7%
0.2% 0.2% 12,273,794 2020 $4.94 107 5.8% 0.4%
0% 0% 11,331,609 2019 $4.94 107 5.4% 0.5%
-0.8% -0.8% 11,048,564 YTD $4.90 106 5.4% 0.4%
2018 0% 2.7% 10,184,031 $4.94 107 5.0% -0.1%
-2.6% 2017 3.8% 10,120,706 $4.81 104 5.0% -0.6%
-6.2% 2016 3.2% 11,025,607 $4.63 100 5.6% -0.9%
-9.1% 2015 2.7% 12,485,727 $4.48 97 6.5% -0.6%
95 2014 1.5% 13,590,562 $4.37 7.1% -2.1% -11.5%
93 2013 2.0% 17,599,158 $4.30 9.3% -0.8% -12.8%
92 2012 0.3% 19,157,462 $4.22 10.1% -0.5% -14.5%
91 2011 -2.5% 20,198,911 $4.21 10.6% 0.6% -14.8%
94 2010 -2.4% 19,085,761 $4.31 10.1% -12.6% -0.9%
96 2009 -4.1% 20,813,148 $4.42 11.0% -10.4% 1.1%
100 2008 -0.6% 18,662,383 $4.61 9.9% -6.6% -0.4%
101 2007 0.5% 19,157,354 $4.64 10.3% -6.0% 1.5%
FLEX RENT VACANCY
Market Rent Vacancy
Year Percent Per SF Index % Growth Vs Hist Peak SF Ppts Chg
2023 8.7% $11.27 118 -0.3% 2.7% 0.3% 1,653,898
2022 8.4% $11.30 119 0.2% 1,582,656 2.9% 0.4%
2021 8.0% $11.28 119 0.1% 1,488,358 2.8% 0.4%
2020 7.6% $11.27 118 0.9% 1,396,091 2.7% -1.2%
2019 8.8% $11.17 117 1.8% 1,597,700 3.2% 1.8%
YTD 5.5% $10.95 115 -0.3% 955,196 -0.3% -0.1%
2018 $10.98 5.6% 115 4.5% 0% 0.2% 966,506
2017 $10.51 5.4% 110 4.9% -4.3% 930,475 -1.9%
2016 $10.02 7.4% 105 4.2% -8.7% -1.0% 1,264,194
2015 $9.62 8.3% 101 4.7% -12.4% -1.0% 1,431,380
2014 97 9.4% 1.2% -16.3% -0.1% 1,599,974 $9.19
95 $9.07 2013 2.1% 9.4% -17.3% -1.6% 1,613,823
93 $8.89 2012 0.8% 11.0% -19.0% 1.5% 1,884,448
93 $8.82 2011 -2.2% 9.5% -19.7% 1,605,478 0.8%
95 $9.01 2010 -3.7% 8.7% -17.9% 1,475,862 -0.8%
98 $9.36 2009 -1.6% 9.4% -14.7% 1,597,745 -0.2%
100 $9.51 2008 1.0% 9.7% -13.3% 1,622,415 0.2%
$9.42 99 2007 1.6% 9.5% -14.2% 1,592,081 -0.4%
4/16/2019
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Page 24 Sale Trends
Saint Louis Industrial
OVERALL SALES
Completed Transactions (1) Market Pricing Trends (2)
Volume Price Index
Year Deals Turnover Avg Price Avg Price/SF Avg Cap Rate Price/SF Cap Rate
-2023 -128 ----$47.23 8.3%
------2022 129 $47.47 8.3%
------2021 129 $47.65 8.2%
------2020 132 $48.67 8.0%
------2019 135 $49.64 7.7%
8.5% $38.24 $1,745,674 1.2% $52.4 M 81 YTD 134 $49.25 7.6%
410 2018 $378.8 M $48.83 133 7.6% 6.0% $2,011,459 $34.55 8.1%
363 2017 $506.9 M $47.87 130 7.4% 6.3% $3,144,204 $41.57 7.5%
382 2016 $488.3 M $46.14 125 7.4% 5.5% $2,355,721 $39.51 8.2%
391 2015 $515.3 M $43.90 119 7.5% 7.3% $2,384,324 $41.71 7.2%
317 2014 $333.4 M $41.54 113 7.6% 4.5% $1,727,299 $35.93 8.0%
323 2013 $510.0 M $38.06 103 7.9% 5.8% $2,682,440 $38.61 7.1%
266 2012 $172.8 M $36.49 99 8.1% 4.6% $1,251,859 $29.72 8.7%
192 2011 $229.6 M $34.99 8.3% 2.9% $1,551,043 $38.33 9.4% 95
173 2010 $594.8 M $34.36 8.5% 2.9% $4,337,931 $83.57 9.6% 93
138 2009 $88.2 M $33.21 8.8% 1.7% $864,436 $23.29 -90
185 2008 $290.8 M $36.81 8.3% 3.1% $1,874,968 $38.93 8.2% 100
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period.
(2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIAL SALES
Completed Transactions (1) Market Pricing Trends (2)
Volume Price Index
Year Deals Turnover Avg Price Avg Price/SF Avg Cap Rate Price/SF Cap Rate
-2023 -134 ----$46.09 8.3%
------2022 134 $46.14 8.3%
------2021 134 $46.13 8.2%
------2020 137 $46.94 8.0%
------2019 139 $47.63 7.7%
8.0% $41.38 $2,450,694 0.8% $12.3 M 9YTD 136 $46.81 7.6%
73 2018 $45.3 M $46.35 135 7.6% 5.6% $1,560,681 $18.21 7.4%
55 2017 $24.0 M $45.28 132 7.4% 4.1% $1,090,549 $20.74 8.8%
84 2016 $106.8 M $43.58 127 7.4% 5.4% $2,483,675 $35.56 8.4%
61 2015 $55.1 M $41.66 121 7.4% 7.6% $1,901,548 $41.53 8.0%
56 2014 $33.2 M $39.43 115 7.6% 3.8% $896,450 $16.45 7.9%
47 2013 $47.3 M $35.87 104 7.9% 3.9% $1,525,722 $25.15 9.8%
33 2012 $33.2 M $34.25 100 8.1% 1.9% $2,076,630 $37.22 7.7%
42 2011 $38.5 M $32.74 95 8.4% 2.2% $1,166,964 $29.41 11.2%
29 2010 $25.8 M $31.87 8.6% 1.9% $1,121,391 $20.77 -93
28 2009 $24.3 M $30.95 8.9% 1.2% $1,158,238 $28.33 -90
26 2008 $43.9 M $34.39 8.4% 1.6% $1,907,938 $38.48 8.1% 100
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period.
(2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
4/16/2019
Page 25
Copyrighted report licensed to Hilliker Corporation - 546805.
Sale Trends
Saint Louis Industrial
LOGISTICS SALES
Completed Transactions (1) Market Pricing Trends (2)
Volume Price Index
Year Deals Turnover Avg Price Avg Price/SF Avg Cap Rate Price/SF Cap Rate
-2023 -126 ----$45.18 8.3%
------2022 127 $45.49 8.3%
------2021 128 $45.73 8.2%
------2020 130 $46.79 8.0%
------2019 133 $47.83 7.7%
8.6% $36.34 $1,572,573 1.5% $37.7 M 69 YTD 133 $47.66 7.6%
297 2018 $314.0 M $47.24 132 7.6% 6.3% $2,287,604 $38.63 8.3%
271 2017 $452.1 M $46.37 129 7.4% 7.4% $3,761,952 $42.86 7.2%
260 2016 $343.8 M $44.66 125 7.4% 5.6% $2,399,935 $39.75 8.2%
289 2015 $403.2 M $42.36 118 7.5% 7.1% $2,566,226 $40.95 6.9%
231 2014 $255.1 M $40.07 112 7.7% 4.8% $1,809,106 $38.60 8.0%
255 2013 $450.4 M $36.81 103 7.9% 6.9% $3,041,252 $40.64 6.9%
206 2012 $127.3 M $35.36 99 8.1% 5.9% $1,157,272 $27.44 8.7%
134 2011 $174.5 M $33.97 8.3% 3.3% $1,694,499 $39.94 9.1% 95
129 2010 $126.4 M $33.47 8.5% 2.7% $1,226,720 $29.21 9.6% 93
97 2009 $49.2 M $32.34 8.8% 1.9% $692,882 $18.27 -90
144 2008 $236.9 M $35.85 8.3% 3.9% $1,956,108 $38.57 8.1% 100
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period.
(2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
FLEX SALES
Completed Transactions (1) Market Pricing Trends (2)
Volume Price Index
Year Deals Turnover Avg Price Avg Price/SF Avg Cap Rate Price/SF Cap Rate
-2023 -129 ----$75.54 8.3%
------2022 130 $75.95 8.2%