September 16, 2018

REGIONAL EXECUTIVES

FRCC—Stacy DochodaSERC—Scott Henry

MRO—Daniel P. Skaar SPP—Ron Ciesiel

RFC —Timothy R. GallagherTRE—Lane Lanford

NPCC—Edward A. Schwerdt WECC—Mark Maher

2012-2013Winter Reliability Assessment Data and Narrative Request

Dear Regional Executives:

The NERC Reliability Assessment Subcommittee (RAS) is requesting your assistance in assessing the reliability of your Region for the 2012-2013winter.

NERC Regional Entities should submit the requested data for each assessment area through the completion of the attached data form (ERO2012-13_WA.xls). Narratives should be completed based on responses to the assessment questions (Attachments II). Both the completed data form and corresponding narrative for each assessment area should be sent electronically to by September 17, 2012. The complete schedule for the 2012-2013 Winter Reliability Assessment (WRA) can be found below in Attachment I.

All data and text should be as complete and accurate as possible, based on available information at the time of submittal. Representatives from the Regional Entities are ultimately responsible for the submittal of both the data form(s) and narrative(s). Part I questions have been modified based on comments received during the development of the 2012 Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA). Part II questions have been removed from this request. Instead, Part II of the 2012 SRA will be redistributed with a request to modify this section as needed to provide thorough descriptions of how the assessment area performs assessments for both the summer and winter. It is important that specific differences are highlighted. Finally, a supplemental request (Attachment III) has been added for all assessment areas that were impacted (both directly and indirectly) by the SW outage during the February 2011 cold snap. These areas include ERCOT, FRCC, SERC (N, S, SE, W), SPP, and WECC (CAMX-US, CAMX-MX, SRSG).

Please adhere to the following guidelines when addressing the narrative questions below:

  • Do not change the questions when seeking input from members of your Region. Much of the supplemental information requested resulted from input from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the RAS, and broad NERC stakeholder input. Please contact NERC staff for clarification on definitions and/or assessment questions.
  • Annotate your responses to each question for easy identification by the peer reviewers. Use the following annotation convention for each question (include the question number in brackets before the first sentence of each response: Example:

[5.2.3] The mothballing of the Tracy generating station and refurbishment of the Gentilly-2 nuclear generating station are largely offset by additional hydro, wind and biomass resources projected to come online during the period of assessment.

  • Please adhere to the following formatting guidelines:
  • Spacing: 1.15
  • Body text: 12-pt Calibri
  • Section titles: 14-pt Calibri (Bold)
  • Margins: Standard (1 inch margins on Left, Right, Top, and Bottom of paper)
  • A description of each table/chart has been provided as placeholders. Formatted tables and charts will be added by NERC staff and included in subsequent drafts and resubmitted to the RAS for the remainder of the peer review process.

Please contact NERC staff with any questions regarding this request. Word versions of this letter and related RAS material can be found at

On behalf of NERC’s Planning Committee and the Reliability Assessment Subcommittee, we thank you for your support of NERC’s Reliability Assessments.

Sincerely,

John N. Moura

Manager, Reliability Assessment

JNM:ct

Attachments

cc: Reliability Assessment Subcommittee

Planning Committee

Attachment I: 2012-2013Winter Reliability Assessment Schedule

The RAS has proposed the following schedule for the 2012-2013 Winter Reliability Assessment:

Friday, July13 / Data and narrative request
Monday, September 17 / Initial data and draft narratives due to NERC
Friday, September21 / Draft narratives posted for peer review on the RAS shared drive
Wednesday-Thursday, October 10-11 / RAS peer review meeting
Friday, October19 / Corrected data and revised narratives due to NERC
Friday, October 26 / Complete draft sent toRAS/PC/OC/MRC
November TBD / Comments due to NERC
November TBD / PC webinar review and approval
November TBD / Final draft to NERC Board of Trustees
November TBD / NERC Board of Trustees webinar review and approval
November TBD / Target release

Attachment II: 2012-2013Winter Reliability Assessment – Seasonal Outlook (Part I)

Prepare a written reliability self-assessment narrative for the respective assessment area’s seasonal outlook. Responses to the following questions should be included in a separate Microsoft Word document. Answers to questions that are not applicable to a specific assessment area need not be answered. As a reminder, all table/chart descriptions below are to be used as placeholders to ensure the text appropriately aligns with the data included in each table/chart.

  1. Assessment Area Highlights
  2. Provide a brief paragraph explaining the purpose of the seasonal assessment and an overview of the efforts that went into its preparation.

1.2.If applicable, include a brief paragraph describing the entry/exit of any entity and corresponding boundary changes that will take effect prior to the 2012-2013 winter.

1.3.Briefly discuss the following Planning Reserve Margins during the coming season:

1.3.1.Existing-Certain and Net Firm Transactions;

1.3.2.Anticipated

1.3.3.Prospective

1.4.Explain significant capacity changes or updatessince the release of the 2012 SRA.

1.5.Discuss the forecasted peak Total Internal Demand for the 2012-2013 winter season.

1.5.1.If there is an increase in Total Internal Demand since the 2011-2012 winter season, explain what factors contributed to this.

1.6.If applicable, include a brief description of any significant transmission issues expected to impact reliability during the 2012-2013 winter.

  1. Planning Reserve Margins
  2. Indicate whether or not the assessment area is projecting adequate Planning Reserve Margins during the 2012-2013 winter.

Clarification:Include the results of the three Planning Reserve Margin categories (Existing-Certain and Net-Firm Transactions, Anticipated, and ProspectivePlanning Reserve Margins compared to the Reference MarginLevel). Should any of these categories fall below the Reference Margin Level, an explanation should be included.

2.2.Identify the Reference Margin Level and briefly describe how it is determined (additional detail to be provided in Part II).

Clarification: The Reference Margin Level is either a Regional, subregional, state, provincial, or other regulatory or market requirement. Each assessment area may have its own specific Reserve Margin level based on load, generation, and transmission characteristics as well as regulatory requirements. If a requirement is provided to NERC, that requirement is adopted as the Reference Margin Level. If not, NERC will assign a 15 percent Planning Reserve Margin for predominately thermal systems and 10 percent for predominately hydro systems

2.3.If the assessment area is projecting adequate PlanningReserve Margins throughout the 2012-2013 winter season, explain the contributing factors contributing to this level of adequacy.

2.4.If the assessment area is not projecting adequate Anticipated or Prospective Reserve Marginsduring the upcoming winter season, explain the following:

2.4.1.Which Planning Reserve Margin category is projected to be below the Reference Margin Level and when is this expected to occur?

2.4.2.What are the contributing factors that lead to the Planning Reserve Margin falling below the Reference Margin Level?

2.4.3.Have any specific plans been developed towards ensuring sufficient Planning Reserve Margin in the future?

2.4.4.What actions are being taken to address shortages during the peak (i.e., increased use of demand response)?

Clarification: Explain why the Planning Reserve Margin(s)is forecasted to fall below the Reference Margin Level. Potential responses include a high demand growth rate, not enough generation planned, or significant resource retirements. Further, identify potential solutions to maintain a sufficient Planning Reserve Margin in the future.

2.5.Identify potential issues or circumstances (possibly not identified in the data) that could lead to significant detractions from seasonal projections.

A Planning Reserve Margin table will be included in this section. The table will show the Planning Reserve Margin projections (Existing-Certain and Net Firm Transactions, Anticipated, and Prospective) compared to the Reference Margin Level for both the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 winter forecasts.
  1. Demand
  2. Compare the 2011-2012 winter peak demand forecast (MW) to the actual peak demand (MW). Explain any significant differences.

3.2.Compare the 2012-2013winter peak demand forecast (MW) to the 2011-2012 winter peak demand forecast (MW). Explain any significant differences.

3.2.1.Briefly describe any changes or enhancements to methods used in the load forecast(additional details can be provided in Part II).

3.3.Discuss key factors that have contributed to significant change (or lack of change) in the demand forecast (i.e. footprint changes (entity acquisitions/exits); changes to the economic outlook (country-wide and assessment area-specific); etc.)

3.3.1.Explain the load growth dynamics across the assessment area. If applicable, identify the causes for localized instances of load growth or reductions.

Clarification: It is common for projected load growth to be inconsistent across a single assessment area. Identify areas within the assessment area that may have more pronounced effects on demand projections (i.e., states, cities, industrial centers, etc.). If possible, provide supporting detail.

A demand table will be included in this section. The table will show the Total Internal Demand and Net Internal Demand for the 2011-2012 winter forecast, 2011-2012 actual peak demand, 2012-2013 winter forecast, and all-time winter peak demand, including the date of occurrence.
  1. Demand-Side Management
  2. Identify the total amount (MW) of energy efficiency (conservation) expected to be in used during the 2012-2013 winter peak.

4.2.Identify the total amount (MW) of demand response that is expected to be in available during the 2012-2013 winter peak.

4.3.Describe how demand response resources are used within the assessment area (i.e., is DR treated as demand-side (load-modifier) or supply-side (resources backed by Firm reserves).

Clarification: Describe Demand Response programs within the assessment area (generalization of multiple similar programs is sufficient. Identify whether Demand Response is used for peak shaving, emergencies, as a capacity resource, or other means.

4.4.Provide an up-to-date description and treatment of the Demand-Side Management programs (i.e., significant developments, policy implementation, etc.):

4.4.1.Energy Efficiency/Conservation

4.4.2.Total Dispatchable and Controllable Demand Response

4.4.3.Demand Response used for Ancillary Services

Clarification: Describe the drivers for Demand-Side Management programs including policy enhancements (state or other regulatory drivers affecting projected Demand-Side Management). Describe any new programs being incorporated into resource plans as well as other operational strategies within the assessment area. (e.g., new and enhanced Demand Response programs providing ancillary services)

A Demand Response and Energy Efficiency/Conservation table and chart will be included in this section. The chart and tables will show the Demand Response and Energy Efficiency / Conservation projections (will show each Demand Response category), identify the amount of Total Internal Demand (MW and %) for both the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 winters.
  1. Generation
  2. Indicate the amount (MW) of current generation:
  3. Existing-Certain (MW)
  4. Existing-Other (MW)
  5. Existing-Inoperable (MW)

5.2.Provide a high level description of the most dominant fuel sources in the assessment area along with any related information on the reliability of these resources.

5.3.Identify the total amount (MW) of Future-Planned resources projected to be added during the 2012-2013 winter for each fuel sources. Also include any information on significant unit upgrades/uprates.

5.4.Discuss unit retirements, project deferments, derates, or other capacity reductions between May 2012 and October 2012. (Include MW and month of occurrence(s)).

5.5.Discuss projected unit retirements, project deferments, derates, or other capacity reductions expected to occur during the 2012-2013 winter season(Include MW and month of occurrence(s)).

A Generation table will be included in this section. The table will show Existing-Certain and Future-Planned capacity for the 2012-2013winter assessment period.

5.6.Discuss and provide specific detail regarding the short-term impacts following changes to capacity (capacity changes should include any that have occurred, or are expected to occur during the winter season):

5.6.1.Generation additions and uprates

5.6.2.Units taken out of service

5.6.3.Units being brought back into service (i.e., after prolonged maintenance)

5.6.4.Ongoing long-term outages

5.6.5.Behind-the-meter generation or distributed generation.

5.6.6.Additions of “non-traditional” generation (storage, flywheels, batteries, etc.)

5.7.The following questions apply to wind, solar, hydro and biomass (provide answers for each, unless a particular resource is not present in the assessment area):

5.7.1.Explain the capacity (MW) expected on-peak and the maximum capacity (MW) from each resource.

5.7.2.Summarize how the expected on-peak values for each resource are determined (Detailed information to be provided in Part II).

5.7.3.If applicable, describe enhancements to how expected on-peak capacity values are calculated for each resource in the assessment area.

A renewable generation (wind, solar, hydro, and biomass) table will be included in this section. The table will show winter 2011-2012 and winter 2012-2013 projected values for the expected and deratedcapacity.
  1. On-Peak Capacity Transactions
  2. Provide a brief explanation of the portion of imports and/or exports that are backed by Firm contracts.
  3. Include any necessary background information on unit-specific contracts and/or transmission contracts.
  4. Explain how projections are determined for capacity transactions that go beyond the term of any Firm contracts.

Clarification: Provide this information if available. This information will help readers understand the structure of these import and/or exports and corresponding contract arrangement in each assessment area.

6.2.If applicable, describe any reliance on emergency imports.

6.3.Describe any addition of import/export capabilities that will be newly available for the 2012-2013 winter. (This may include a new line from a neighboring assessment area.)

An On-Peak Capacity Transactions table will be included in this section. The table will show Firm and Expected Imports and Exports for the 2012-2013 winter season.
  1. Transmission
  2. Identify and describe project delays or temporary service outages of any significant transmission facilities (include those that may impact voltage stability, dynamic stability, or deliverability of resources):
  3. Explain the reliability impact of these outages during the 2012-2013 winter.
  4. Identify measures to address these concerns.

7.2.Identify specific projects needed to maintain or enhance reliability during the 2012-2013 winter.

  1. Operations
  2. Describe any special operating studies (i.e., extreme weather analysis, severe drought impacts, etc.) performed

8.2.Describe how seasonal planning has been impacted by any recent and forthcoming capacity reductions.

8.3.Identify any general operational concerns for the coming 2012-2013 winter season; especially those that are unique to the assessment area.

8.4.Describe how operational procedures will be impacted during the upcoming winter as a result of integrating variable resources (i.e., wind, solar, hydro, and biomass).

8.5.Explain the operational impacts of recent or forthcomingunit retirements, project deferments, derates, or other capacity reductions during the 2012-2013 winter.

8.6.Describe and any potential reliability concerns resulting from minimum demand and over generation and if applicable, list the operating measures to mitigate these concerns.

8.7.Describe any reliability concerns resulting from the use of demand response to meet peak demand (i.e., dependability of demand response).

8.7.1.If concerns exist, explain operating measures to be used to mitigate them.

8.7.2.If possible, explain the limitations/restrictions on calling demand response.

8.8.Explain any environmental and/or regulatory restrictions (i.e., emissions, water levels, etc.) that could impact reliability.

8.8.1.If known, include the projected magnitude (MW) of the restriction (i.e., run-time limits for certain units) and subsequent impact on operating conditions.

8.8.2.Explain how the projected magnitude was determined, including specifics on the criteria used in the determination.

8.9.Describe any other anticipated unusual operating conditions that could significantly impact reliability for the upcoming winter.

  1. Vulnerability Assessment
  2. Discuss resource adequacy and operational concerns caused by the following:
  3. Long-term/extended drought
  4. Significant long-term generator outages
  5. Unresponsive or unavailable demand response
  6. Significant penetration of variable generation
  7. Other area-specific resource adequacy issues

9.2.Discuss the addition of Special Protection Systems (SPS) or Remedial Action Schemes (RAS)installed before and/or during the assessment period (October 2012 and January 2013) and identify whether the SPS/RAS is a temporary or permanent solution.

9.3.Discuss current and/or pending environmental regulations that may impact the assessment area during the upcoming winter.

9.3.1.Explain how environmental regulations are considered for seasonal resource adequacy planning.

9.3.2.Describe any actions being taken within the assessment area to address and mitigate potential reliability issues during the upcoming winter.

9.3.3.Discuss any concerns for scheduling multiple unit outages in order to allow for necessary retrofitting during the upcoming winter and explain how the assessment area is addressing these concerns.

9.4.Discuss coordination efforts within the assessment area with regards to the fuel industry (i.e., coal suppliers, gas pipe-line operators).

Clarification: Include a detailed explanation of the actions taken to reinforce adequatesupplies (for gas-fired generation) and/or secure transportation (for coal-fired generation).

Attachment III: 2012-2013 SWTF Supplemental Request

If information is unknown, confidential, or otherwise unavailable, attempt to provide a more generalized response using the best information available and explain how and why the information is not yet available or known.

  1. Please describe modifications, enhancements, or new procedures that have been implemented in preparation for the 2012-13 winter seasons. Specifically, reference the following issues and explain how the area has addressed them:

i.Adequate prediction and preparation for impending winter weather