Ra I Tropical Cyclone Committee for The

W O R L D M E T E O R O L O G I C A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N

RA I TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE FOR THE

SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN

TWENTY-FIRST SESSION

La Reunion, France

28 September – 2 October 2015

FINAL REPORT

1

GENERAL SUMMARY OF THE WORK OF THE SESSION

1.ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION (agenda item 1)

1.1Opening of the session (agenda item 1.1)

1.1.1 At the kind invitation of the Government of the Republic of France, the twenty-first session of the WMO Regional Association I (Africa) Tropical Cyclone Committee (RA I TCC) for the South-West Indian Ocean was held at Météo-France in La Reunion, France, from 28 September to 2 October 2015. The session was attended by representatives from Botswana, Comoros, France (La Reunion), Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Australia participated as ex-officio Member of the Committee. Also in attendance were representatives of the WMO Secretariat.The list of participants is given in Appendix I to this report.

1.1.2On behalf of Mr. Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General of WMO, Mr. Xu Tang, Director of the Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services (WDS)Department, expressed the sincere appreciation of WMO to the Government of France for hosting the twenty-first session of the Committee. Mr Tang extended his gratitude to Mr David Goutx, Director of Météo-France La Reunion and his staff for the warm welcome and hospitality and for the excellent arrangements made to ensure the success of the session. He highlighted the primary objective of the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP), and the core business of the Committee as a vitally important part of the overall WMO Multi-Hazard Early Warning System with particular focus on tropical cyclones. He conveyed the Committee that the global target 7 of the Sendai Framework, which was just adopted during the WCDRR-III in Sendai, Japan, in March 2015, and called for investments in developing, maintaining and strengthening people-centred multisectoral forecasting and early warning systems, disaster risk and emergency communications mechanisms, hazard-monitoring telecommunications systems and for supporting, as appropriate, relevant United Nations agencies to strengthen and implement global mechanisms on hydrometeorological issues, in order to raise awareness and improve understanding of water-related disaster risks and their impact on society, and advance strategies for disaster risk reduction. He commended the success of the Committee in regional coordination and partnership against the risks of disasters associated with tropical cyclones. He informed the Committee of the guidance of the 17th WMO Congress on TCP to implement the Programme to enable all Members to provide more accurate forecasting and warning services which are impact-based and in multi-hazard approach. He wished the session successful and productive, with fruitful outcomes. He also wishedall the participants to enjoy their stay with health and happiness.

1.1.3MrDavid Goutx, Director of Météo-France La Reunion, France welcomed the participants at the twenty-first session of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee and extended his warmest greetings. He recalled for the past three years since the last SWIO TCC session held in Maputo (Mozambique) in 2012. During the inter-session more than 30 tropical storms or cyclones had roamed over the basin. As for La Reunion it had to face two cyclone events with induced red-alerts, without suffering casualties nor heavy damage nonetheless. These limited impacts, which resulted from both the progress demonstrated in track forecasting and the increased resilience of the infrastructures in La Reunion, may have given a deceptive impression of security to the population. The reality is that these cyclone events were of rather moderate importance and that we must maintain our efforts to prepare La Reunion for the worstcase scenario that may happen some day: a very intense tropical cyclone, like the ones that developed in 2015 (Bansi and Eunice), making landfall directly on the island.As RSMC La Reunion hosts the SWIO-TCC for the very first time, it is proud to announce that the services provided to all the countries within the SWIO will be improved within a few months, thanks to the new supercomputer installed at Toulouse enabling it to operate the brand new Limited Area Model called "AROME Indien" with its very high 2.5 km horizontal resolution and 90 vertical levels, coupled with the ECMWF global model and a 1D-oceanic model linked to the Mercator ocean model. At the same time, the RSMC’sCyclone Research Unit keeps on committing in new numerical developments that will improve its future operational tools and also in an ambitious project of atmospheric observations led in partnership with many countries within the region involved, named RENOVRISK.With Météo-France's ambition to stay a high-level meteorological service in the world, the RSMC La Reunion has benefited from all the efforts made to improve its tools, but so much more could be done if itsideas of cooperation found a frame to thrive: attachment/exchange of forecasters, transfer of expertise on demand, etc.Mr Goutx stressed that with the COP 21 scheduled at the end of the year in Paris, the issue of a possible increase of cyclone hazard due to climate change should now be added to the other climate change issues already efficiently dealt under the umbrella of IOC since 2012. He hoped that this 21st TCC session will help design the framework of this cooperation.

1.1.4MrDavid Goutx officially opened the twenty-first session of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee.

1.2Adoption of the agenda (agenda item 1.2)

The Committee adopted the provisional agenda. The agenda for the session is given in Appendix II to this report.

1.3Election of the Chairperson and Vice-Chairperson (agenda item 1.3)

Designation of the Chairperson and vice-Chairperson

1.3.1The Committee was notified that the chairperson and vice-chairperson of the Committee have been vacant for over two years. In order to carry out the businesses of the session, the Committee unanimously agreed to designate Mr David Goutx (France)to serve as chairperson, and Mr Vincent Amelie (Seychelles) as vicechairperson until the end of the session.The Committee was reminded that it is one of the subsidiary bodies of the RAI. It was clarified that attendees were representing their country in dealing with the business of the session.

Considerations for future Chairperson and vice-Chairperson

1.3.2The Committee discussed about ways of generating the future chairperson and vice-chairperson of the Committee, in compliance with relevant WMO regulations and procedure. In this connection, the Committee agreed to establish during the session an ad hoc group to develop the Terms of the Reference of the Chairperson and vice-Chairperson of the Committee, which will be recommended to the President of the RA I for his reference to appoint the two posts under his authority. The Terms of the Reference of the Chairperson and vice-Chairperson of the Committee is provided in AppendixIII

1.3.3The Committee agreed that the essential requirements for being a Chairperson of the Committee should be that he/she should be able to take leadership in direction for development of technical capacities of the Members of the Committee, to liaise with regional and international partners and agencies to support the endeavors of the Committee, to offer assistance in outreaching and mobilizing resources to help enhance the capabilities and capacities for the Members of the Committee, to commit enough time (e.g. 15 working days per year) to work for the Committee.

1.3.4Based on the Terms of Reference and requirement, the Committee proposed MrGOUTX(France) as candidatures for Chairperson and Mrs RABETOKOTANY(Madagascar)as candidatures for vice-Chairperson for consideration by the President of Regional Association I to make a decision for appointment accordingly.

1.4Working arrangements for the session (agenda item 1.4)

The Committee agreed on its working hours and work programme.

2. REPORT OF THE CHAIRPERSON OF THE COMMITTEE (agenda item 2)

2.1The Committee was informed that the following activities were carried during the inter-sessional period:

1. RA I Training Course on Tropical Cyclones and PWS (La Reunion, France, in 2013, and 2015).
2. Composition of the tropical cyclone name list for 2015/2016 cyclone season, led by RSMC La Reunion.
3. Representation of selected Members in the ITWC-8 and IWTCLP-3 (France, Mauritius).
4. Storm surge workshop in 2012 in Nairobi, Kenya.

3. COORDINATION WITHIN THE WMO TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAMME (agenda item 3)

3.1The Committee was informed by the WMO Secretariat that the 17th Congress of WMO in May-June 2015, gave following guidance to the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP), among others:

• to expand and consolidate further the regionally coordinated systems to cover all Members prone to tropical cyclones;
• to enhance the capacities of Members to provide more accurate forecasting and warning services which are impact-based and in multi-hazard approach (which is also a decision of EC-66);
• to improve forecasting and warning capabilities of Members through advances in sciences and technologies, and capacity development; and
• to reduce damage and loss of lives through the above institutionalized activities and arrangements, and in step with the developmental goals of the Sendai Framework.

3.2The Committee was also briefed about the TCP activities during the inter-sessional period as follows:

-Training and Capacity Development

TCP/PWS joint training courses/workshops on TC Forecasting and Public Weather Service were held for RA I TCC (La Reunion, October 2013, September 2015), RA IV Hurricane Committee (USA, March2013, March 2014 & March 2015) and RA V TCC (Nadi, Fiji, October 2013, Melbourne, Australia 2015), and attachment trainings were for Panel on Tropical Cyclones (RSMC New Delhi, February 2013 & February 2014) and for Typhoon Committee (RSMC Tokyo, July 2013, July 2014 & July 2015), International Training Workshop on Dvorak Technique (September 2014), International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Warnings (Dew Delhi, India, August 2015).

-Support to Operational Forecasting

Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecastingwas announced available during the Cg-17 in May 2015. The new Guide is Web-based and can be accessed through the link ( The Guideis expected to achieve synergetic effect with the TCForecaster Websitehosted by Hong Kong, China(

-Storm Surge Watch Scheme

TCP and MMOP organized the 8th Storm Surge Workshop in Nairobi, Kenya in November 2012, and the Storm Surge Workshop for the RA IV Hurricane Committee in Miami, Florida, USA in January 2015.

-Application of Research and Development

TCP and WWRP jointly organized the 8th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-8) and the 3rdInternational Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-3), both in Jeju, Korea, December 2014.Both Workshops provided platforms for forecasters and researchers to interact with what were currently available technologies and what forecasters need most in operational services.

-Coordination of Forecasting Services

The WMO Executive Council (EC) at its sixty-fifth session welcomed the recommendation of the 7th Technical Coordinating Meeting (TCM) (Indonesia, November 2012) to explore the feasibility of developing a globally-unified classification of tropical cyclones including a category system. The EC 66 noted the ongoing careful study and investigation by the ad hoc team established by TCM. The Committee reiterated its view that a classification system should take into account the cultures of the various Regions. The Committee indicated that the result should be brought to all bodies before finalisation. A concept paper of the investigation would be presented to the next TCM planned in Miami, Florida, USA, 2–6 November 2015.

-The Committee was reminded of Amendment 75 to ICAO Annex 3/WMO Technical Regulations [C.3.1] concerning provision by TCACs of the graphical format of tropical cyclone advisories to the aviation community for its consideration.

TC Regional Bodies

-Annual/biennial sessions of other four regional TC committees were held as follows:

1. The 15th session of the RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee was held in Port Vila, Vanuatu from 26 to 30 May 2014.

1. The 3rd Joint session of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones / ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (PTC-42/TC-47) was held in in ESCAP building, Bangkok, Thailand, 9–13 February 2015.

1. The 21st session of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee (TCC),being held in La Reunion, France, from 28 September to 2 October 2015.

3.3The Committee was informed that the scope of activities of the regional TC Committees had been expanded through involvement with the WMO’s cross-cutting projects such as the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP), Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) and Disaster Risk Reduction projects for Early Warning Systems in Regions I, II, IV and V. The Committees’ annual/biennial sessions serve as venues for information sharing of the projects and their technical plans have incorporated collaborative actions with those projects. Wider cross-cutting project coverage was further needed to reach all the Member countries of the regional TC committees. In addition, a synergistic relationship with other UN agencies and international/regional entities had also been developed.

3.4As regards to the RA I Training Course on Tropical Cyclones in 2013 and 2015, the Committee was also informed of the tentative results of the evaluation by the participants. Overall, the training courses were found satisfactory for all the participants, including the general organization such as course programme, training material and facilities. Many participants responded that they learned a lot during the two-week training, developing the knowledge of track forecasting and such new technologies as ensemble forecasting and satellite applications. More importantly, they improved the understanding of the products and operational works of RSMC La Reunions and strengthened their linkage with the RSMC. The Committee re-iterated the valuable contribution of the Training Course to the capacity development in tropical cyclone forecasting and expressed its gratitude to RSMC La Reunion for their continued effort for hosting this biennial training event.

3.5The Committee noted that among the priority actions of TCP for 2015 and beyond, such as organization of regional workshops and TC Committees’ sessions, the Programme would lay special emphasis on i) promoting tropical cyclone forecasting and warnings services with impact-based and risk-mapped approaches and ii) effective organization of group training sessions in Regions I, IV and V, WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones, and ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee.

4. REVIEW OF THE 2012/2013, 2013/2014 AND 2014/2015 CYCLONE SEASONS (agenda item4)

4.1Report of RSMC La Reunion(agenda item4.1)

4.1.1Reports of the 2012/2013, 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 cyclone seasons were presented to the Committee by Mr Philippe Caroff (RSMC La Reunion - Tropical Cyclone Centre, France).They can be found at the following website:

2012/2013 cyclone season

4.1.2The activity of cyclone season 2012-2013 was practically in perfect accordance with the norm, whether in terms of number of days of disturbed activity or number of cyclone days. Only one element somewhat departing from the norm must be underlined however, namely the high number of cyclones that developed, since out of the ten tropical storms which formed, seven of them evolved into mature tropical cyclones (of which three became intense cyclones). A proportion that was remarkable, without being exceptional. Out of the ten meteors, four of them had an influence on the inhabited lands, but only cyclones FELLENG and HARUNA claimed a number of victims (in Madagascar).

2013/2014 cyclone season

4.1.3The activity of the 2013-2014 cyclone season over the South-West Indian Ocean basin was near average and remarkably stable compared to the previous season. If the number of recorded phenomena was above normal (with eleven tropical storms), in terms of number of days of disturbed activity or of number of cyclone days (much more representative of the real cyclone activity, as they aggregate both the number of phenomena and their cumulated life-times), or in terms of tropical storms/cyclones ratio, the statistics of the season could hardly be closer to the climatological norms, but such was the case already during the previous 2012-2013 season.

4.1.4In spite of that, everything did not strictly match the climatological average during that season. One particular element even clearly distinguished itself from the norm, and it was not insignificant; namely the maximum intensities reached by the five tropical cyclones that developed. All of them were ranked at the minimum stage of intense cyclones and two of them even climaxed at the stage of very intense tropical cyclones. That was an uncommon event, as an equivalent dated back 20 years, with the great 1993-1994 season (three were then even listed during that exceptionally active season).

4.1.5The other anomaly in 2013-2014, was to be found in the time distribution of those phenomena, since, oddly enough, none of those tropical cyclones developed during the usual heart of the season (e.g. between mid-January and mid-March), when there were only four tropical storms observed. The hard core of the 2013-2014 season, was actually to be found earlier, as the month between mid-December and mid-January concentrated the bulk of the disturbed activity, with half of the named systems, of which four were cyclones of severe intensity. Only one cyclone could afterwards develop after mid-January, but what a cyclone it was! Because HELLEN, which evolved in the northern Mozambique Channel, will be remembered as an exceptional cyclone, probably unique, all cyclone basins considered.

4.1.6Fortunately, none of those systems had a major impact on the inhabited lands. The system that had the most notable influence was cyclone BEJISA, but it was no longer at its maximum intensity when it brushed past La Reunion Island.

2014/2015 cyclone season

4.1.7With a total count of eleven tropical storms, of which five developed into tropical cyclones (including two into very intense tropical cyclones), cumulating 56 days of disturbed activity (i.e. with the presence over the basin of a system at the stage of tropical storm or cyclone), the 2014-2015 cyclone season was slightly more active than average over the South-West Indian Ocean basin. But the most striking feature of the season, and which made it really specific, would have been the quite unusual typology of the tracks followed by the different named systems. One witnessed a remarkable predominance of eastward or southeastward oriented trajectories, in particular within the tropical domain. Those atypical trajectories resulted from the abnormal meteorological situation that prevailed over the basin, especially in January 2015, a month that cumulated by far the strongest disturbed activity (with no fewer than five phenomena).