Prudential International Investments Advisers

Prudential International Investments Advisers

Global Investment StrategyMarket Outlook For 2010

December 30, 2009

By John Praveen, Ph.D, Chief Investment Strategist

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John Praveen’s Global Investment Strategy & Outlook – 2010expectsequity markets to post further gains in 2010, driven by: 1) Solid, sustained GDP growth with growth likely to surprise on the upside; 2) Low headline & core inflation; 3) Global central banks keeping rates on hold through mid-2010, and liquidity remaining plentiful; 4) Strong earnings growth with rising revenues, wider margins & improved pricing power. Positive earnings surprises likely, and 5) Continued stabilization in financial market conditions and risk appetite improving further. Stock markets were supported in 2009 by the speed of the GDP recovery and breadth of the GDP rebound. During 2010 equity markets are likely to be supported by the sustainability of the GDP recovery and the strength of the earning rebound. Both GDP growth and corporate earnings are likely to surprise on the upside. We expect the S&P 500 to rise to 1,350 by 2010 year-end. We expect European and Emerging stock markets to post over 20% gains in 2010.

Bonds are likely to be under pressure during 2010.Bond yields are expected to rise with solid, sustained GDP growth, a reversal in headline inflation from the 2009 disinflation, and an increase in risk appetite. Rising fiscal deficits and the resultant increase in bond supply are also likely to put pressure on bond yields. Major central banks are likely to start draining liquidity earlier in 2010 and eventually raise rates in late 2010, another negative for bonds. Core inflation is likely to remain low (and negative in Japan) limiting the rise in bond yields. U.S. Treasury yields are likely to rise to around 4.5% by 2010 year-end.

On Asset Allocation, we are overweight on stocks and underweight on cash and bonds. Among global stock markets, we are overweight Emerging Markets, Eurozone, and U.K. We are underweight on Japan and the U.S. Among global government bond markets, we are overweight in Japan, U.K. and Emerging Markets, neutral on Eurozone bonds, and underweight in U.S. Treasuries. Among global sectors, we are overweight in Industrials, Materials, Information Technology, and Financials. We have a neutral stance in Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Telecomm. We are underweight in Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities.

Macro & Investment Outlook – 2010 Overview

2010 Macro Outlook:

• Growth:Solid, sustained GDP growth in 2010 driven by a substantial fiscal stimulus, low interest rates, inventory rebuilding and a modest housing recovery. Emerging economies growth is accelerating. GDP growth likely to surprise on the upside.
• Inflation:Headline inflation movesfrom disinflation to low inflation in 2010 with strength in oil and commodity prices, base effects and strengthening global growth. Core inflation likely to remain low with excess capacity & high unemployment.
• Interest Rates:Global central banks are expected to start implementing exit strategies in 2010. However, with low inflation and high unemployment, developed central banks are expected to maintain low rates through mid-2010, but likely to start draining liquidity earlier in 2010.
• Currencies:U.S. dollar expected to gain against the euro, sterling and yen with relatively stronger U.S. GDP growth and the U.S. rates rise ahead of Europe and Japan. Expect RMB revaluation, and further gains by other EM currencies and commodity currencies.

2010 Investment Outlook: Stock and Bond Markets

Stocks Post Further Gains in H1 & Consolidate in H2: We expect further stock market gains in H1 driven by:

• Stocks continuing to enjoy the macro sweet spot of sustained GDP growth, low inflation, and low interest rates;
• Strong earnings recovery with GDP growth, widening profit margins, and improved pricing power; Positive earnings surprises likely;
• Stocks still attractively valued relative to bonds, and
• Continued stabilization in financial market conditions and further improvement of risk appetite.

Stocks are likely to consolidate in H2 after solid gains in H1. Increased volatility with the cross currents of strong earnings and GDP growth versus changing interest rate expectations.

Bond Yields Rise: Bond yields expected to rise with solid, sustained GDP growth, a reversal in headline inflation from the 2009 disinflation, and an increase in risk appetite. Major central banks are likely to start draining liquidity earlier in 2010 and eventually raise rates in late 2010, another negative for bonds. However, phased withdrawal of liquidity and low core inflation likely to limit the rise in bond yields.

2010 Macro Outlook

GDP Recovery Continues. Disinflation Ends. Rates Remain Low

Growth – The global recovery that began in the middle of 2009 is expected to be sustained in 2010 with a swoosh-shaped gradual recovery. We do not expect a W-shaped double dip. In fact, growth is likely to surprise on the upside.

GDP growth in the U.S., Europe and Japan is likely to be driven by: a) substantial fiscal stimulus; b) low interest rates; c) inventory rebuilding (U.S. inventories are at their lowest in 60 years); d) improving global trade and e) a modest recovery in the housing markets. We expect GDP growth in 2010 to be around 3.3% in the U.S. and around 2% in Europe and Japan. In contrast to sharp V-shaped rebound from past deep recessions, the current recovery is likely to be a more modest, swoosh-shaped recovery with the headwinds of high unemployment and continued deleveraging by U.S. households.

GDP growth in China, India, and other Asian Emerging Markets is likely to strengthen further with export recovery and strong domestic demand boosted by fiscal stimulus. We expect GDP growth to be around 10% in China and around 8% in India. Emerging Europe and Latin America are likely to benefit from firm oil and commodity prices and recovery in exports.

Inflation- Headline inflation is moving from disinflation in 2009 to low inflation in 2010 with base effects ofoil and commodity prices, and further improvement in global growth. However, both headline and core inflation are likely to remain low due to the wide output gap, high unemployment and low capacity utilization.

Headline inflation is likely to average around 1.8% in the U.S., around 1.1% in Eurozone and 2.1% in the U.K. However, Japan is likely to remain in deflation in 2010, around -1%, given the massive output gap.

Core inflation in 2010 is expected to average around 1.5% in the U.S., Eurozone and U.K. However, Japanese core inflation is likely to remain in negative territory, around -1.5%, with strong domestic deflationary pressures.

Interest Rates & Fiscal Policy - With the global recession ending in the middle of 2009, global central banks are expected to start implementing exit strategies in 2010. Some of the emerging central banks are likely to start raising rates in H1 2010. However, with inflation remaining low and unemployment remaining high, the developed central banks are expected to maintain “crisis-level” low rates through Q3 2010. We expect modest rate hikes (around 25bps) by the Fed, the ECB and BoE in late 2010 and no increase in Japan However, global central banks are likely to start draining liquidity earlier in 2010. In fact, the Fed and the ECB have already started debating the timing and speed of unwinding the stimulus.

A significant amount of fiscal stimulus remains in the 2010 pipeline, especially in the U.S. (around $400 billion and China). Further Japan is likely to inject fresh stimulus.

Currencies– U.S. dollar is likely to stabilize and rise against the euro, sterling and yen in 2010 with relatively stronger U.S. GDP growth and the Fed raising U.S. interest rates ahead of Europe and Japan. We expect the Chinese RMB to be revalued and the dollar to fall further against EM currencies.

2010 Investment Outlook

Stocks: Stocks Post Further Gains in H1 & Consolidate in H2

We remain positive on the outlook for stocks with stocks continuing to enjoy the macro sweet spot of sustained GDP growth, low inflation, and low interest rates. In addition, earnings are expected to rebound strongly.

The macro backdrop for stocks remains very favorable in 2010 with continued solid GDP growth in the developed economies and strong growth in emerging economies. GDP growth is likely to surprise on the upside.Fiscal stimulus and low interest rates are expected to support growth. Headline inflation is likely to move from disinflation to low inflation, providing some pricing power.

Corporate earnings are likely to post a solid rebound in 2010 and likely to surprise on the upside, after declining sharply in the past two years. Solid GDP growth in developed economies and strong growth in emerging economies are likely to boost top line revenue growth. Margins are expected to widen with falling unit labor costs and other efficiency gains. Pricing power is expected to improve with ultra low inventories and disinflation ending.

Further financial market stabilization and capital market activity are likely to be positives both for the Financials sector as well as non-Financials getting access to credit. Firm oil and commodity prices will be positives for Energy & Materials earnings.

Global equity valuations are less compelling with P/E multiples having risen to multi-year highs from decade-low levels in early 2009 as stocks rallied sharply while earnings plunged with the global recession and financial crisis. Thus valuations are unlikely to be a driver of market gains. However, P/E multiples are expected to improve during 2010 with earnings on track to rise sharply. While markets look expensive on trailing P/E basis, stocks are still cheap on adjusted earnings basis. Further, stocks are still cheap compared to bonds with stock yield higher than bond yields.

Stocks are likely to post most of their gains in H1 and consolidate in H2. Hence, we remain overweight in stocks in H1 and reduce the overweight in H2 with stocks range bound with the cross currents of strong earnings and GDP growth versus changing interest rate expectations.

Stock market volatility is likely to remain high in 2010 with: 1) Market concerns about the sustainability of the GDP recovery and fears about a double-dip; 2) Uncertainty about central bank exit strategies and 3) The fallout from potential aftershocks of the financial crisis, such as the recent Dubai World debt episode.

2010Year-end Stock Market Targets

USA - S&P 500: 1350; Japan - Nikkei: 12,000; Eurozone – STOXX50: 3750; U.K. – FTSE100: 6600;

China – Shanghai Composite: 4100; India – Sensex: 22,000; Taiwan – TWSE: 9900;

Korea – KOSPI: 1860; Brazil – Bovespa: 81,000; Mexico – Bolsa: 37,000

Bonds: Bond Yields Rise Further

Bonds are likely to be under pressure during 2010. Bond yields are expected to rise with solid, sustained GDP growth, a reversal in headline inflation from the 2009 disinflation, and an increase in risk appetite. Rising fiscal deficits and the resultant increase in bond supply are also likely to put pressure on bond yields. Major central banks are likely to start draining liquidity earlier in 2010 and eventually raise rates in late 2010, another negative for bonds. However, central banks are likely to withdraw liquidity in a phased manner so as not to cause a spike in yields. Core inflation is likely to remain low (and negative in Japan) limiting the rise in bond yields.

Bond yields are likely to rise further in H1 with sustained GDP recovery, headline inflation moving from negative to low positive readings, rising fiscal deficits, central banks unwinding asset purchases and interest rate normalization and increasing risk appetite. Bonds are likely to rise modestly in H2, supported to some extent by the slower withdrawal of liquidity by central banks, slower rise in inflation and stocks coming under pressure.

Investment Strategy

Asset Allocation: Stocks vs. Bonds:

H1 2010: Stocks – Overweight.Bonds & Cash – Underweight.

H2 2010: Stocks – Modest Overweight.Bonds & Cash – Modest Underweight.

Global Equity Strategy:

Emerging Markets: Overweight. The Emerging Market recovery is on track to accelerate in 2010 after the strong rebound in 2009. Exports and the massive fiscal stimulus packages continue to drive robust GDP growth in Asia. In China investment spending remains strong. The recovery in trade should drive strong growth in Korea and Taiwan. Meanwhile, the recovery in oil and commodity prices is positive for Latin America and Emerging Europe. EM earnings expectations for 2010 were revised up further to 26%. EM Asia earnings expected to rise 30% in 2010 with China’s earnings growth continue to be revised up to 28% in 2010. However, EM now trades at a premium to DM on some valuation measures, though EM stocks still have a lower trailing P/E. Further, Currency appreciation is a further negative for EM stocks.

U.K.: Overweight. U.K. GDP growth likely to lag other countries in 2010. However, valuations and sector composition remain positives for U.K. stocks. The BoE is likely to keep the U.K. bank rate on hold at 0.5% for most of 2010, but will begin to withdraw liquidity measures later in order to prepare the market for rate hikes. Valuations are attractive both on a historical and current basis. Expected Sterling weakness against the U.S. dollar is another positive for U.K. stocks.

Eurozone: Overweight. The Eurozone recession ended in H2 2009 and GDP growth is expected to consolidate in 2010. The ECB is likely to remain on hold at its record low rate of 1% through mid-2010. Eurozone earnings expected to rise sharply in coming quarters and grow 27% in 2010 with solid GDP growth and improved margins. Earnings expectations for Eurozone companies are likely to be revised higher after turning positive in October for the first time in 23 months. Eurozone stocks still attractively valued and trading at a discount to the U.S., Japan and Emerging Markets.

Japan: UnderweightThe Japanese GDP recovery is expected to continue in 2010, though GDP is estimated to rise just 1.6% as consumer fundamentals remain weak. Japanese earnings are expected to recover in 2010 with the global recovery boostingJapanese exports. However, yen strength is a headwind for Japan’s export recovery and earnings. Further, valuations remain expensive relative to U.S., Europe, and Emerging Markets.

USA: Underweight. U.S. GDP growth expected to be solid in 2010. The Fed is expected to maintain rates at current low levels through late 2010. Strong earnings growth with solid top-line revenue growth, widening margins, improved pricing power and significant exposure. However, the U.S. stock market also remains relatively expensive. During past equity market rallies, the U.S. has underperformed international markets due to its defensive characteristics. Thus, even though we expect U.S. stocks to post solid gains in 2010, we expect even stronger gains in higher beta Emerging Markets and Europe and to outperform the U.S. in H1 2010.

Overweight: Emerging Markets, U.K. and Eurozone.Underweight: Japan and U.S.

Global Bond Strategy:

Government Bonds versus Corporate Bonds.Corporate bonds are likely to outperform government bonds given the increase in risk appetite, further stabilization in credit markets and solid, sustained GDP growth. However, gains will be weaker than those in 2009.With risk aversion waning, government bond yields are likely to rise as investors continue to move to riskier assets. Further, ballooning fiscal deficits should increase the supply of government bonds, putting pressure on yields in the intermediate-term.

USA: Underweight.Solid U.S. GDP, a reversal in headline inflation from negative inflation in 2009 to positive inflation in 2010, Fed draining liquidity and eventually raising rates are likely to put upward pressure on Treasury yields in 2010. The stabilization of financial markets and the increase in risk appetite also reduces the safe haven appeal of Treasuries. The ballooning U.S. budget deficit is another negative for Treasury yields.

Eurozone: Neutral. European bond yields are expected to rise modestly in 2010 with the rebound in Eurozone growth, especially in Germany and France. In addition, inflation is set to rise back close to ECB target. Further, there is a possibility that the ECB begins to raise rates ahead of market expectations and unwinds non-traditional policy measures.

UK:Overweight. U.K. Gilts have a relatively favorable outlook with weaker U.K. GDP lagging the rebound in the U.S., Japan, and Eurozone. In addition, the BoE has a relatively dovish stance. After expanding their QE program in late 2009, the Bank is likely to be slower in unwinding their monetary expansion.

Japan:Overweight. Japanese bonds are likely to benefit from deflation persisting through most of 2010. In addition, the BoJ is expected to keep rates on hold until 2011, which should keep bond yields contained. However, yields could be under pressure with a stronger than expected GDP rebound and further expansion of the fiscal deficit with the DPJ government expected to enact another stimulus package in 2010.

Emerging Markets:Overweight. EM spreads should narrow further given rising risk appetite, solid commodity prices and strong GDP growth in emerging economies. Spreads are still above levels before the financial crisis, leaving room to fall further. Commodity prices are expected to remain firm in 2010, putting downward pressure on yields. However, EM central banks are likely to begin removing the monetary stimulus, which is a negative.

Overweight: Corporate Bonds. Underweight: Government Bonds.

Overweight: Emerging Markets, U.K. and Japan. Neutral: Eurozone.Underweight: U.S.

Global Sector Strategy

Industrials: Overweight.Industrial activity is expected to post solid gains in 2010 with solid GDP growth in developed economies with emerging economies growth accelerating. Further, the strong rise in business confidence points to rebound in capital spending. Machinery and Equipment companies expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus and the improvement in business spending. Defense/ Aerospace spending is relatively weaker but still solid.

Materials: Overweight.Commodity prices expected to rise further in 2010 with the GDP recovery in developed economies and emerging economies growth accelerating. Increased government spending, particularly in infrastructure, will boost materials demand. Agricultural prices firm up due to supply constraints in many key producers.

Info. Technology: Overweight.Solid demand for global tech product continues, especially in EM. Strong Tech infrastructure spending and upgrades following the release of Windows 7. Telecomm equipment demand and productivity improvements will be by driven stronger business spending. Gradual improvement in consumer spending over the course of the year.

Financials: Overweight.Earnings outlook improves further. Financial market stabilization and improvement in capital market activity support Diversified Financials. Banks benefit as the GDP recovery improves the outlook for both businesses and consumers. Central banks likely to keep accommodative policies through late 2010 and hike rates modestly. Risks for U.S. commercial banks from problems in commercial real estate.