Appendix 1

Reasons for Rising Pupil Numbers

Births

The latest birth statistics for Poole for 2008, from the Office of National Statistics, show that births in Poole have declined slightly, but remain high. The number of live births in Poole for 2008 was 1,629. This is a fall of 19 births (-1%), compared to 1,648 live births in 2007. Since 2001, the annual number of live births in Poole has increased by over 20%, from a low of 1,339 in 2001 to 1,629 in 2008. This rise in births has resulted in a large increase in the number of 0-4 year olds in Poole over the past five years (by over 900 children), and will impact on older age groups as these cohorts grow up.

These high levels of births are likely to continue during the 2010s, since the larger numbers of women produced by the 1960s 'baby boom' meant there was an increase in the number of births during the 1980s and 1990s. These larger generations are in turn projected to produce continued high numbers of births during the 2010s.

The increase in live births in Poole is consistent with an increase nationally. Projected trends in live births provided by the Office of National Statistics suggest that the current level will be maintained over the 2010s.

In Migration

While changes in the number of births have the most impact on trends in numbers of school pupils in Poole, an increase in net in-migration has also been a contributing factor. Evidence on levels of net internal migration from GP registrations, show that between 2005 and 2008 there has been some net inflow of 0-14 year olds into Poole (see chart below). There is also evidence of an increase in migrants, especially from the A8 Accession countries from 2004 onwards. The chart below showing the number of Worker Registration Scheme Registrations by quarter for Poole shows a sharp increase in worker registrations to 2006, followed by a decline and a more recent small increase during the last two quarters of 2009.

School census data also shows some evidence of an increase in migrants. Between January 2008 and January 2009 there was a 42% increase (204 children) in the number of children with English as a second language. In particular these children were drawn from the following groups: Polish, Malayalam, Portuguese and Filipino. Figures for these groups for the past three years are as follows:

January 2010January 2009January 2008

Polish1059427

Malayalam755221

Portuguese383310

Filipino25202

Housing Developments

The diagram below highlights the location of new build developments between 2003 to 2006. Whilst obvious ‘hotspots’ of new housing development can be easily observed in the Central Area namely Poole Town Centre, and to the east of Hamworthy, it is also interesting to note the wide spread of smaller new builds located throughout the Borough – particularly to the north and south of Ashley Road, in Canford Cliffs and around the Sandbanks Peninsula.

It is likely that this pattern of new builds will continue with the Twin Sails and Town Centre North development Projects in Hamworthy East and Poole Town Centre and the continued infill across the Borough. Canford Cliffs is anticipated to have the highest levels of new builds outside the Central Area. However, the timings of these new developments are uncertain given the current economic climate.

Figure 4: Location of new build developments in Poole 2003 to 2006

Appendix 2

Where are the increased number of children expected to be living?

The increase in the number of children in Poole is not likely to be distributed evenly across the Authority. Births in Poole are not evenly spread across the Borough and the rise in fertility and increase in births since 2002 has been more pronounced in certain areas. Migrants are also not distributed evenly.

GP registration data for current school catchments gives some indication of which schools are likely to experience the greatest increases in Reception age children to 2012. Some schools will be able to absorb some of this increase due to previous spare capacity as a result of the recent falling rolls. However, where rising births combine with popular schools with no spare capacity and the added pressure from migration and new builds, there is likely to be significant pressure for school places.

Schools in the Primary sector anticipated to experience significant excess demand for school places in Reception are: Courthill First School and Lilliput CE VC First School for 2009 and Old Town First School, St Aldhelm’s VA Combined School and Heatherlands First School from Sept 2011.

The map to the left below shows areas with the highest concentrations of 0-4 year olds in Poole, according to 2008 GP registration data. The red/orange areas have the highest concentration of children. The map to the right highlights areas that have experienced the largest growth in the numbers of 0-4 year olds between 2002 and 2008. The areas in red show the areas where there was the greatest increase.

Appendix 3

  1. What is the evidence that this amounts to the need for 150 new Reception places being required in schools by September 2011?

In the previous sections it has already been shown that Poole has experienced a significant rise in the number of births since 2002. The relationship between the number of births and the subsequent impact on the numbers entering reception for that birth cohort of children are shown in the graph below. This shows a very close relationship between the two, and shows the increase in reception pupils predicted for September 2011 and 2012, given the increase in births to 2008.

GP registration data also gives an indication of the knock on effectimpact the rising number of births has already had, and will continue to have, on numbers of pre-school children aged 1-4, as shown in the Table below.

Between 2006 and 2009 the number of children aged 1 has increased by 198 (+13%), from 1488 in 2006 to 1686 in 2009. This is a direct result of the sharp increase in births in Poole over this period and in-migration. This increase in 1 year olds to 2009 will continue through the age groups as this cohort of children grows older. The 1 year olds in 2008 and 2009 will become the reception intake for September 2011 and 2012. Hence the required increase in Reception places for September 2011.Table 1: Children by age living in Poole - 1999 to 2009

1999 / 2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009
Age 1 / 1460 / 1487 / 1481 / 1396 / 1340 / 1443 / 1505 / 1488 / 1497 / 1652 / 1686
Age 2 / 1608 / 1478 / 1483 / 1472 / 1363 / 1341 / 1511 / 1577 / 1543 / 1528 / 1690
Age 3 / 1546 / 1615 / 1499 / 1496 / 1406 / 1404 / 1386 / 1521 / 1545 / 1564 / 1570
Age 4 / 1553 / 1545 / 1627 / 1506 / 1516 / 1488 / 1403 / 1436 / 1528 / 1582 / 1590

Source: GP Registration data

This evidence, of both the increase in births and pre-school age children in Poole, points to a significant increase in Reception pupils to 1,563 for September 2011, and 1,539 for 2012 (shown by the blue line in the diagram below). Given that there are currently 1470 reception places available in Poole (shown by the red line in the diagram), this is clearly not going to be sufficient unless an additional 150 places are added in Year R in September 2011.

Appendix 4

What is the evidence that the rising numbers cannot be accommodated in existing school buildings?

The capacity of a school is the number of pupil places available. For Primary schools, the net capacity is calculated on the basis of the number and size of spaces designated as “classbases”. The Local Authority is responsible for assessing and setting the net capacity of all maintained mainstream schools in the Authority and for keeping these updated and reported to the DCSF.

The net capacity assessment is used to determine the Published Admission Number (PAN) of schools. The PAN refers to the relevant age group in which pupils are normally admitted to the school. For First schools this is Year R and for Middle schools Year 4.

Admission authorities for maintained schools must set admission numbers with regard to the capacity assessment for the school. Admission numbers for Year R must take account of the duty to comply with the infant class size limit of 30 pupils per school teacher which also applies to Years 1 and 2.

For example, a First school with a PAN of 90 would normally have a net capacity of 360 which is based on 3 classes in each of Years R, 1, 2 and 3. The school would have 12 classbases. If the PAN of this school increased to 120, the school would need 4 more classbases to accommodate the 120 additional pupils in Years R to 3 and the school’s net capacity would increase to 480.

When the change in the age of transfer takes place in September 2013 and Year 3 pupils move to Junior (formerly Middle) schools, some capacity will be freed up in Infant (formerly First) schools. In the accommodation proposals for the schools identified as needing to expand, this capacity has been taken into account.

The accommodation proposals also take account of spare accommodation in schools which were part of the programme of surplus place removal between 2002 and 2008. For example, Talbot Combined School was previously 3 form entry and was reduced to 2 form entry in September 2006 and so has the capacity for its PAN to increase to 90 without the need for additional classbases.

The diagram at (iv) above illustrates that since September 2008 there have been very few surplus places in Year R. In July 2009 the Admissions Team reported that there were only 42 places left in Year R for September 2009. At that time there were spaces in the following schools:

Canford Heath First School4 places

Hamworthy First School5 places

Hillbourne School and Nursery9 places

Manorside Combined School20 places

Turlin Moor Community School1 place

Talbot Combined3 places

Officers involved in pupil place planning and admissions made regular reports to the Strategic Director (Children’s Services) during the summer holidays as there was a change that children could move into the Borough and require a place in Year R but there was no way of forecasting this.

If this situation had arisen, officers would have submitted a referral to the Office of the Schools Adjudicator (OSA) to increase the PAN of a First or Combined school for September 2009. However, approval from the OSA can take 6-8 weeks and action cannot be taken until the approval has been granted. In the event, there was no significant increase in the need for places in Year R and a referral to the OSA was not required.

The DCSF Guide to Forecasting Pupil Numbers in School Place Planning recommends that Local Authorities maintain a level of 5-10% surplus places in the school system. For Poole, this represented 73 spare places in Year R for September 2009.

Appendix 5

Why was a catchment area review carried out and what was the conclusion?

In October 2008 the Head of CYPS SQI presented a report to the Children’s Services Capital Programme Board on the Future Need for Primary School Places. In December 2008 Cabinet approved a number of proposed actions which included the following:

For September 2010:

  • Undertake a catchment area review for the following schools:

-Courthill First School and Lilliput CE VC First School

-Springdale First School and Broadstone First School (shared area)

-Hamworthy First School and Turlin Moor Community School (shared area)

For September 2011:

  • Undertake a catchment area review in 2009 for implementation in 2011 to ensure a more even distribution of pupils for the following schools:

- Heatherlands First School, Sylvan First School and Manorside Combined School

- Stanley Green First School, Canford Heath First School and Ad Astra First School, Longfleet Combined School

  • Review of shared catchment area for Merley First School with Dorset County Council.

The purpose of these catchment area reviews was to address the following issues:

a)Schools not in their own catchment area

b)Pupils walking past the nearest school to get to their catchment area school

c)Shared catchment areas

d)Schools over-subscribed from within their own catchment area

The Corporate Research and Information Team started work on the catchment area review by plotting all 1 year olds. They advised that it was not possible to consider particular school groupings in isolation and that a Borough wide review needed to be undertaken. The review was focused on the options for adding places in Year R and proposals for changes to catchment areas depended on which option is taken forward.

Consideration has also been given to having no catchment areas. The Admissions Team investigated other LAs who have no catchment areas and also modelled the impact of this by replicating the September 2009 admissions process.

A summary of the advantages and disadvantages of catchment areas / no catchments areas is set out in the table below:

Option / Advantages / Disadvantages
Catchment Areas / Serve their local community
Clear and transparent information for parents on their priority at local schools
Less entitlement to free Home to School Transport
Parents have become comfortable with catchment areas and identify with individual schools / Effects property prices in some areas
Unless reviewed regularly they do not reflect need/development
Some schools not sited within their own catchment areas
Pupils living in the same road may not have the same catchment area school due to boundaries
No Catchment Areas / No need for regular reviews of catchment areas
The nearer parents live to a school the greater the priority
More fair and open access / Some pupils would not have priority consideration for any school.
Increase costs for home to School Transport for those not achieving a place at their nearest school
Would need to decide whether distance is measured by walking route or straight line
Increased administrative burden on School Admissions Team in responding to parental enquiries concerning nearest school
Not serving local community

In August 2009 the Strategic Director (Children’s Services) briefed Councillors Woodcock and White on the work being undertaken on pupil place planning and the catchment area review. She presented a briefing paper which explained that if changes to catchment areas were to be implemented in September 2011, consultation on proposals for change would need to have been concluded and decisions made before 1st November 2009 when the consultation on admission arrangements for September 2011 would start. As the proposals for changes to catchment areas depended on which options were taken forward for adding school places and discussions were still on-going with schools to secure their support for the preferred option, it was recommended that it would not be advisable to start public consultation on proposed changes to catchment areas until firm proposals for the future sizes of schools were agreed. Therefore, it was proposed to delay the implementation of any changes to catchment areas until 2012 at the earliest. It was explained that the implications of this were:

  • High number of admission appeals
  • Transport costs
  • Political pressure from parents to local Elected Members

It was agreed that the catchment area review would be parked for the present.

Due to capacity issues in Dorset no work has yet been undertaken on the review of the shared catchment area for Merley First School with Dorset County Council.

Appendix 6

BOROUGH OF POOLE
PUBLISHED ADMISSION NUMBERS2011/12
COMMUNITY AND VOLUNTARY CONTROLLED SCHOOLS /
School / 2010/11
PAN / 2011/12
PAN
Ad Astra First / 90 / 90
Ashdown TechnologyCollege (Year 8) / 184 / 184
AshdownTechnologyCollege (Year 12) / 40 / 40
Baden Powell & St Peter’s Middle / 150 / 150
Bearwood Primary and Nursery / 30 / 30
Branksome Heath Middle / 150 / 150
Broadstone First / 60 / 60
Broadstone Middle / 163 / 163
Canford Heath First / 120 / 120
Canford Heath Middle / 120 / 120
CarterCommunitySportsCollege / 120 / 120
Courthill First / 90 / 90
Hamworthy First and Nursery / 90 / 90
Hamworthy Middle / 90 / 90
Haymoor Middle / 90 / 90
Heatherlands First / 90 / 90
HillbourneSchool & Nursery / 60 / 60
Lilliput First / 90 / 90
Longfleet Combined / 60 / 90
Merley First / 60 / 60
Manorside Combined / 60 / 60
Oakdale South Road Middle / 140 / 140
OldTown First & Nursery / 60 / 60
Springdale First / 60 / 60
Stanley Green First / 90 / 90
Sylvan First / 90 / 150
Talbot Combined / 60 / 90
TurlinMoorCommunitySchool / 45 / 45

Appendix 7

The Schools Admissions process and action taken

The entire admissions and admissions appeals processes are governed by statute and Regulations together with their respective Codes of Practice.

The main Regulations involved are:

The School Admissions (Admissions Arrangements) England Regulations 2008 (SI 3089)

The School Admissions (Co-Ordination of Admission Arrangements)(England) Regulations 2008 (SI 3090)

The Education (Admission Appeals Arrangements) Regulations 2008 (SI 3092)

All the admission authorities within Poole are required to and have adopted co-ordinated admissions schemes (Chapter 3 and Appendix 2 of the Admissions Code of Practice) which sets out the admissions process and timescales. Up until September 2010 there were two co-ordinated schemes, one for primary (including middle schools) and one for secondary admissions. For September 2011 there will be one all-encompassing scheme for both primary and secondary admissions.

The neighbouring local authorities have been consulted on the scheme particularly with reference to the dates for the processes.

The admissions process is:

  • Parents can express preferences for up to three schools,
  • They can give reasons for these preferences although the admission authorities can only offer places in accordance with the oversubscription criteria. Therefore the majority of the reasons given cannot be taken into consideration (e.g. wants to go to the same school as friends, family history of attending a school etc)
  • After the published closing date the local authority co-ordinates all the applications.
  • Names and addresses are sent to Foundation and VA schools which are asked to rank all the applicants in the order they meet the schools oversubscription criteria.
  • All the lists are then returned to the local authority.
  • The local authority’s admissions software stores the data on all preferences and whether schools can offer places.
  • Parents are offered a place at their highest ranked preference possible, this could be either their first, second or third preference school. If all three schools can offer a place then the parent is offered their first preference school etc.
  • The co-ordinated admissions scheme includes what will happen if none of the parents’ preferences can be met. The child will be allocated a place at their catchment area school, if it has places available. If it does not have places available then a place is allocated at the next nearest Poole school that does have places available.
  • Applications which are received after the published closing date are considered as being late. Late applications are dealt with after all the on-time applications have been processed.
  • Parents have two weeks to accept the offer. If they fail to do so the offer may be withdrawn and the place offered to the next person according to the oversubscription criteria.

Other relevant legislation to which admission arrangements must have regard (Appendix 1 of the Admissions Code of Practice):