Press Release – For immediate publication/broadcast/online

Large majority of investment professionals believe Government did good or very good job in Brexit negotiations, but sizeable minority believe more should be done to protect Irish interests against impact of Brexit – CFA Society Ireland survey

  • 80% expect Trump tax deal to have only a moderate impact on US foreign direct investment
  • 57% expect equity markets to end 2018 higher
  • Vast majority – more than 90% - believe Bitcoin is a bubble waiting to burst.

Monday January 22nd 2018: More than two-thirds of Irish investment professionals surveyed by CFA Society Ireland believe that a “soft Brexit” between Ireland and the UK will emerge from the current negotiations between the European Union and the UK.

And while more than three-quarters of those surveyed said that the Irish Government has done a good or very good job in the Brexit negotiations in December, a significant minority – just over 30% - believe that the Government is still not doing enough to protect Irish interests against the most damaging effects of Brexit.

Asked about the effects of President Trump’s tax deal in the USA, a large majority of respondents – more than 80% - believe that this will have only a “moderate” impact on US foreign direct investment into Ireland while one in ten believe it would have a severe impact on FDI.

Respondents were generally positive about the prospect for equity markets in 2018 with almost 57% saying they believe markets will be higher at the end of the current year while 30% expect equity markets to weaken from their current levels.

On interest rates, two-thirds of respondents expect ECB rates to be unchanged at the end of 2018. Almost two-thirds of respondents expect the ECB to end its quantitative easing programme this year.

The vast majority of respondents expect US interest rates to be higher by the end of the year while there are divergent views on the direction of UK interest rates, with 50% of respondents expecting UK rates to be higher while 42% expect UK rates to be unchanged at the end of the year.

There were also divergent views also on the direction of the euro/dollar exchange rate, with 47% expecting the euro to strengthen, 23% expecting the euro to weaken while

30% expect the exchange rate to be broadly unchanged at the end of 2018. A large majority – almost 66% expect the euro to strengthen against sterling while 25% expect the euro/sterling exchange rate to be unchanged.

Irish investment professionals are not impressed with Bitcoin as an investment option, with some 90% describing the cryptocurrency as a bubble waiting to burst.

Commenting on the results of the survey, CFA Society Ireland President Fran Carter said: “Investment professionals seem generally positive about the likelihood a soft Brexit, and while the Government has drawn plaudits for its handling on the Brexit negotiations, it’s noticeable that a sizeable minority believe the Government could be doing more to protect Irish interests against the most damaging impact of Brexit.”

Further information

Brendan McGrath

087-9370266