Presentation ofDr Dimitrij Rupel, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Slovenia

“Managing political transition in the Caspian region”

Bled Strategic Forum, Bled

28 August 2006

(check against delivery!!)

Excellencies,

Ladies and gentlemen,

Friends,

Fellow panelists,

  • When preparing for my presentation today I decided that I will use some arguments from my bag of previous experiences.First such experience comes from the former Yugoslavia, second as former chairman-in-office of the OSCE, and third as a representative of the country that will preside over the European Union in 2008. All of these experiences put together are sufficient to form a starting point, or a standpoint, from which to discuss the Caspian problem in a relevant way.
  • We have seen how the EU in its beginnings has helped countries that experienced war situations. In the case of countries such as Germany and France, we have seen the EU act as a support mechanism for reconciliation. The EU is also a splendid mechanism to deal with conflicts between countries in the case of former Yugoslavia. Perhaps I should be more careful here, because the first and perhaps the best success of the EU regarding Yugoslavia was Slovenia, and the rest is yet to come. But I have great hope that the EU will serve as a reconciliation instrument for the countries that have come out of former Yugoslavia and that all countries of Southeast Europewill soon become members of the EU.
  • The EU is also the mechanism that can help Serbia and Kosovo in the future reconciliation and coexistence, and this is something that I have already called a win-win situation.
  • I guess that the EU can also serve as the lighthouse, a refuge, or a reconciliation mechanism for Southern Caucasus. I think that often countries in conflict can rarely find solutions or reconcile by themselves; they need a new context to find a peaceful solution. I think that the EU or the EU perspective, the EU Neighbourhood Policy, or even a potential new policy that we can start within the EU can contribute to the solution of conflict in the Caucasus - I am referring to the differences between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and of course Georgia and the Russian Federation, as well as some other conflicts in the region.
  • Transition is above all a process which needs to be adapted to the circumstances on the ground. There is no one transition model that fits all. Likewise, I suspect that transition in the Caspian region will have an authentic element, and probably will arrive in waves. While saying that there is no one transition model that fits all, I do also believe that there are some basic standards in terms of the rule of law, functioning institutions etc, which ultimately need to be achieved in order to establish accountability and thus lasting political stability and economic prosperity. When talking about basic standards, I am referring to the standards of Council of Europe; the standards regulating human rights, democracy, democratic institutions and so on.
  • In light of this, the South Caucasus states are particularly relevant. The South Caucasus is both a link between Europe and Central Asia and a possible radiant of stability in the broader Black Sea region and the Middle East. The question which needs to be answered is how Europe can and should support political transition in the Caspian region? Second, who are Europe’s natural partners in this venture?
  • First, it is important to identify the end game. Promoting stability via strengthening institutions can mean two things: strengthening and centralizing power or building efficient institutions. Very often people in this region think that centralization is the solution. I am firmly convinced that it is efficiency we shouldfocus on. In many cases this might meandecentralization of authority. By decentralization I mean transparency, checks and balances, democratic control and so on. It also means investing in human capacity building, which is necessary in order to compete globally. Globalization is requiring institutions to adapt, including the public sector, to fierce competition.In order to plug into the race and fill the development gap two issues are of utmost importance: investing in know-how and in an efficient institutional framework able to provide the needed micro and macro stability for growth and development.
  • The European Union has a clear political role to play in the Caspian region through supporting institutional development and capacity enhancement programs. Europe is in many ways already active in the transition process that is taking place throughout the Caspian region. However, more is possible through intensifying our strategic political dialogue, particularly with the countries of the South Caucasus. Unequivocal European support for the process of transition and institution building in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan can help ensure that theses states plug into the already established systems like NATO and the EU sooner rather than later – as strategic partners, or even at some point, as members.

Thank you!