Analyst Briefing – Romania

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FACT BOX:

·  Population: 22 million (after Poland and ahead of the Netherlands)

·  GDP (2009): $161 billion (smaller than Portugal, greater than Hungary)

·  Troops in Afghanistan: 1,800

·  Troops in Iraq: 890 (pulled out in June 2009)

WHAT ROMANIANS THINK OF ROMANIA TODAY:

Romanians have had a boost of confidence by their entry into the EU, but they are beginning to realize that EU membership is not all that it was cracked up to be. First, it has not helped them stave off a severe economic crisis, this is the topic everyone obsesses in Romania with right now. Second, they are now being forced to implement austerity measures by the Germans -- although in their case to be truth it is the IMF that the Germans forced them to go to -- that they thought they did not need. Third, they don’t feel that the EU has their back as far as Russian resurgence goes, especially in Moldova where Germany and France seem to have sold out Bucharest. Fourth, actual corruption has not improved much in the country and Romania is still very much a Balkan state (just don't make the mistake of telling them that). Furthermore, while Romania is the second largest Central/Eastern (Intermarum) country after Poland, it has nowhere the history of regional dominance or power. The greatest extent of Romanian power – in between the wars – was due to weakness of everyone around it. Bucharest has no real historical memory of imposing its geopolitical will independent of the actions of great powers.

WHAT ROMANIANS THINK ROMANIA WAS YESTERDAY:

There is obviously a myth of a Greater Romania, but it is far more localized to the Balkan region. There is no illusion of grandeur, no belief that Romania was once a powerful European country like Poland or even Hungary. Greater Romania refers to a period in Romanian history between the two World Wars when Romania was enlarged at the expense of Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires. Romania understands that it requires foreign powers to ally with it in order for it to survive. It has seen France and Germany sell it out, and it is holding out hope that the U.S. remains a committed ally.

KEY POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS

For Romania I have decided to go with political organizations first, because I feel that it is necessary that we outline those first before going into personalities. This is because ideologically I don't see much difference between the parties, especially the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL -- referred to as the Democrats) and the National Liberal Party (PNL -- referred to as the Liberals). The only difference is that the PDL is not really a "Wallachian" party. Its stronghold is among Transylvanian Romanians, Bucharest and the Black Sea coastal region, so the more "Western oriented" parts of Romania and also the more nationalist regions. The Socialists have the non-Bucharest Wallachia locked down because it is a poorer agrarian region of Romania and a region that still looks towards the state for handouts.

It is also important to be cognizant of the fact that in Romania, politics is business and money. Ideology is very loosely woven into parties and all three major parties have shifted back and forth on where they stand ideologically. This creates a very personality based environment. Note that the current government is supported by defectors from PSD and PNL that Basescu essentially bought off.

Democratic Liberal Party -- PDL -- DEMOCRATS

The Liberal-Democratic Party is the successor of The National Salvation Front, a political formation born as a large mass movement in December 1989, during the Revolution.

Over the past two decades, the party has gone through several mergers and campaigns to redefine its doctrine and name. From a socialist doctrine, the party has now taken a Christian-democratic approach, being situated on the centre-right area of the political spectrum. Once the most vocal opposition party, the Liberal-Democratic Party has become the largest governing party, with most representatives in the Romanian Parliament.

According to its status, it aims to provide and assure “a political and social climate, favorable to the development of human personality, creativity and progress”. Yet, the latest decisions the party has taken in order to combat the economic crisis has led to it losing its popularity.

Its first leader, Petre Roman, was also the first Prime Minister of post-revolutionary Romania. The party leadership was then taken by Traian Basescu, now President of Romania, considered to be the most popular and trustworthy personality of the party, at that time. He won the elections wishing everybody to “Live Well!”, a saying which is now a joke among Romanians due to the measures undertaken by the government to fight the crisis.

After he was named President, Traian Basescu retired from the party leadership and put the current Prime Minster Emil Boc in his place, a nomination only on paper, analysts claimed. Traian Basescu is still the shadow leader of the party, often interfering in its decisions and actions.

The National Liberal Party -- PNL -- LIBERALS

The National Liberal Party is the "youngest ancient", as they claim, Romanian party - ancient by tradition and history (it was established in May 24, 1875) and young by vision and pragmatism, according to the party’s logo.

Liberals had been governing for quite long periods of time between 1867 and 1937, with small interruptions, and 30 out of 87 Romanian cabinets were led by liberal prime ministers. In 1947, the communists split the party, imprisoned some of its members and sent others to propagandist labor camps.

After the Revolution, the party was re-established and obtained 39 parliamentary seats. Since then, PNL has remained the only authentic right-wing party, addressed to elites and the middle class. Since March, 2009, Crin Antonescu has been the party’s President. He obtained the best results ever at the latest presidential elections: 22% of valid votes. Still, the Liberal Party remains sidelined in the Romanian political spotlight, despite all its efforts to form an opposition with the other parties that are not governing. This is almost impossible for the Liberals since it would necessitate union with the hated Socialists.

The Social Democratic Party - PSD - SOCIALISTS

The Social Democratic Party is the main opposition party in Romania. After the defeat suffered in the last presidential campaign, PSD has regularly tried to overturn the current government through censorship motions, but without success, due to the low number of parliamentary seats. The party now orients itself as social-democratic and progressive.

The President is Victor Ponta, ex-Vice President of PSD and ex-minister for the Relation with Parliament during Emil Boc’s first cabinet. But the dominant figure of the party is still Ion Iliescu, the Honorary President of PSD and the first Romanian President after the Revolution. During his governance, the introduction of political, social and economic reforms were started, as well as the NATO accession and the final parley phase for EU accession. Still under his leadership, Romania has undergone miners’ movements, highly controversial privatizations and an invasion of local barons - various local leaders who have gained billions of Euros from doing business with the state.

Soon after the end of his administration in 2005, an investigation was started in a bid to assess Iliescu’s role during the 1990’s miners’ movements, when miners from Jiu Valey came to Bucharest to suppress the anti-governmental demonstrations. Prosecutors decided there was not enough evidence to place Iliescu under criminal investigation.

Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania -- UDMR

The Democratic Union of Hungarians is the main political organization representing the ethnic Hungarians of Romania.

As an ethnic minority, above all, UDMR concerns itself with Hungarian rights, including cultural and territorial autonomy on an ethnic basis. To advance its goals, the union participated in or supported all Romania’s governments from 1996 onwards, regardless of their political ideology and it has been represented in both houses of the Romanian Parliament since its formation. In national elections, the union constantly obtains about six per cent of the votes, which roughly corresponds to the percentage of ethnic Hungarians from the total population in Romania.

Most of the Romanians, especially those with extremist and anti-minority views, are against the measures proposed by the UDMR’s members. According to its leader, Marko Bela: “The goal of the UDMR is the territorial autonomy which we deserve.”

UDMR has been criticized on several occasions for its lack of specific doctrine. The main argument for preserving the current structure is that if it splits into smaller fractions of different ideological orientations, it would be impossible for the Hungarian community to obtain more seats in the Parliament. Several voices from within the party and the Hungarian community have criticized it for being too moderate, and making too many compromises in political treaties with other Romanian parties.

However, during the elections, UDMR proved it still had the support of the overwhelming majority of Hungarians. It has allowed the current PDL government to survive two recent votes of censure.

The Greater Romania Party

Corneliu Vadim Tudor, the leader of the Greater Romania Party, PRM, is one of the most controversial, essentially populist, political figures in Romania. He is known for his strongly nationalist and xenophobic views, along with his party. PRM is a Romanian radical right-wing, ultra-nationalist party founded in 1991.

It briefly participated in government from 1993 to 1995. In 2000, Tudor received the second-largest number of votes in Romania's presidential elections, partially as a result of protest votes lodged by Romanians frustrated with the fractionalization and mixed performance of the 1996-2000 Romanian Democratic Convention government.

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Important note on the current setup of the government:

The current government was formed after the Presidential elections and after PSD left the government in Oct. 1. The Hungarians are the only ones 'in coalition' - meaning they've got government chairs. However, after the Presidential elections, there were some senators and deputies from PSD and PNL, but mainly PSD who set up their own party - PUNR. That basically contains the independents group in both Lower house and Senate. Those are bought off by PDL and they vote against the no-confidence votes. There are also the minorities - in the lower house - that follow the Hungarian party. Only the Roma party can be bought off by PSD but that doesn't happen in Parliament but mostly in local elections and the buying procedure is very well known by the PDL as well...so you may have districts where the Roma population would vote for PDL and districts where they'd vote with PSD. Check out the table bellow with the #s. You'll see that 219 was exactly the # for the most recent no-confidence vote.

LOWER HOUSE / SENATE
PDL / 126 / 53
PSD-PC / 95 / 43
PNL / 53 / 28
UDMR / 22 / 9
MINORITIES / 18
INDEPENDENTS (UNPR) / 14 / 10
OPPOSITION / 148 / 71 / 219
POWER / 180 / 72 / 252
328 / 143 / 471

KEY PERSONALITIES

President – Traian Basescu

Basescu is by constitution supposed to be independent, but he is supported by the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL – also referred to as the Democrats). He is the former Mayor of Bucharest, which is a key political lever of power in Romania and an important way to climb the latter to power on the federal level (mayorships are in general very good political positions to hold).

He is a former member of the Communist Party, although he claims he did it just to advance this career (probably true, is a former merchant marine sailor). He has been in and out of governments since 1991 when he became the Minister of Transportation. He became Mayor of Bucharest in 2000.

He won the 2004 Presidential elections largely on an anti-corruption platform and entered into a political alliance with the National Liberal Party (PNL – also referred to as the Liberals), appointing its leader, Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, as prime minister. Their relationship turned sour and the control for power between Basescu and Popescu-Tariceanu culminated in Basescu’s suspension in April 2007 for allegedly interfering with the Romanian constitution. The rivalry was not ideological; it was purely a contest for political power between two members of the same political alliance, at the time referred to as the Justice and Truth Alliance, both parties are essentially center right. Ultimately, Basescu called a public referendum on his suspension which he won in May 2007 and outlasted Tariceanu, who was replaced as prime minister following the PDL win in November 2008 parliamentary elections. Basescu ruled from November 2008 until October 2009 in an alliance with the Social Democratic Party (PSD). This ended when PSD then left the coalition in October 2009 over economic reforms and the crisis.

To run the country after the October 2009 PSD decision to leave the coalition, Basescu has relied first on a caretaker government and then after the Presidential elections in late 2009 on a shaky alliance with the ethnic Hungarian party. He has managed to impose his prime minister – Emil Boc, who is getting all the blame for the economic crisis – and thus rule the country from his position as the President.