Polling and Voting (Chapter 8)

Lecture Outline

  1. Public Opinion
  2. Values/Attitudes that people have about issues/personalities
  3. Opinion leaders – Share/manipulate ideas.
  4. Widely held political beliefs are usually the products of campaigns by government, organized groups, or the media
  5. How measured?
  6. Impressionistic
  7. Person to Person
  8. Direct exposure (Presidents use associates)
  9. Quick, Efficient, inexpensive
  10. LIMITS awareness
  11. Examples
  12. FDR Court Stacking
  13. Nixon spying on McGovern
  14. Selective Polling
  15. choose informal selective individuals
  16. less reliable, but CHEAPER
  17. Bellwether District
  18. indicator/predictor of large segments of the population
  19. MAINE – Early election, followed national trend (not anymore)
  20. Scientific
  21. Surveys – REQUIRE SAMPLING
  22. Quota Sampling
  23. Most polls, respondents have characteristics that closely match general population (geography, age, sex, religion, race)
  24. Probability Sampling
  25. Most accurate, assumes every individual has chance to be polled. Correct weight given to all segments of the population
  26. Systematic
  27. Simplist, choose every Xth name
  28. Random
  29. Mathematically chosen at random, “Container whose contents are mixed”
  30. Area
  31. Breaks down into units, very accurate, very expensive
  32. Haphazard
  33. No value
  1. Problems with Polling
  2. Poor question format (Vocab, bias, etc.)
  3. BIAS
  4. PUSH POLLING
  5. Designed to shape the respondents opinion
  6. Lead to skepticism of polling by Americans
  1. Sample Size
  2. Precision is a function of sample size, not population
  3. Typical American poll = 450-1,500
  4. Tradeoff between cost and accuracy (more accurate = more expensive)
  5. HARRIS/GALLUP most prominent/reliable presidential polls
  1. Polling Errors
  2. Accurate but not infallible
  3. Underrepresenting Voters
  4. VENTURA (MN) Polled at 10%
  5. Polls rely on “likely voters”
  6. Ventura appealed to unlikely
  7. BANDWAGON EFFECT
  8. Polling results influence people to support a candidate
  9. Illusion of saliency
  10. Impression conveyed that something is important to the public when it is not
  11. OVERPOWERING OFFICIALS
  12. Ignorance HAS ITS USES
  13. Prevents leaders from being autocratic
  14. “negative knowledge” gives healthy fear of electorate
  15. INFLUENCE
  16. Polls do not influence individuals, but do influence leadership (which pushes policy)
  17. SOURCES OF OPINION DIFFERENCES
  18. Gender gap
  19. Age differences
  20. Less attachment to the idea of a large military to preserve peace among young
  21. class differences
  22. education/income gap
  23. support for government assistance programs high among those with less money and less education
  24. more support for civil liberties among upper/middle classes
  25. regional differences
  26. geographic gap
  27. south = strong military, prayer in schools
  28. low support for minority civil rights among white southerners
  29. racial differences
  30. OJ Simpson
  31. Strong support for civil rights issues

PART II: VOTING

  1. Expansion of Electorate
  2. Women, minorities, young people given more right to vote over time
  3. Framers originally left choice to states
  4. Federal government gradually exercised control
  5. 15th Amendment – Race
  6. 1965 Voting Rights Act ended literacy tests, “Jim Crow” laws
  7. 19th Amendment – Women (1920)
  8. 26th Amendment (1971) – 18 year olds
  9. Federal Government now exercises control by establishing national standards
  1. Low Turnout
  2. Typically 40-50%
  3. Much lower than Western Democracies
  4. Theories
  5. Parties less competitive
  6. 1800s, very high (70%), now not fighting for as many voters
  7. Voter Fraud lowered
  8. Result of Registration requirements
  9. Difficult registration process
  10. Automatic in Europe
  11. Requires education
  12. 1993 Motor Voter law – led to a spike in registration
  13. Same Day Registrations = Higher turnout
  14. Reasons for voting on specific candidates
  15. Party affiliation
  16. Declining in importance
  17. Interest in a particular issue
  18. increase in single issue voting (abortion?)
  19. problems – lack of clarity, agreement with different candidates on different single issues
  20. Prospective vision
  21. favorable comparison of position statements and choice of candidate
  22. Retrospective vision
  23. judge on results, not intentions
  24. personal appeal
  25. perception of competence, ability
  26. Types of Participation
  27. Inactive
  28. About one-fifth of pop. Does not participate in any way. Do not vote, do not even talk about politics
  29. Little education, low income, young
  30. Voting Specialists
  31. Vote, but no other participation
  32. Little schooling, but older
  33. Campaigners
  34. Vote, enjoy getting involved in campaigns
  35. Better educated, engage in the conflicts and struggles of politics. Strong party identification
  36. Communalists
  37. Social backgrounds similar to campaigners
  38. Nonpartisan
  39. Devote time/energy to community activities
  40. Parochials
  41. Stay away from elections, but contact politicians about specific issues
  42. Activists
  43. Constituting about 1/9th of population, these are highly educated, high incomes, and middle aged. Participate in all forms of politics.