from: / penn schoen berland
date: / 10.01.2010
re: / polling in battleground districts - week 1
OVERALL WEEK 1:
Penn Schoen Berland conducted 4,809 phone interviews among likely voters in November congressional election in the following congressional districts:Michigan 7, Arizona 1, Illinois 11, Maryland 1, New Mexico 2, Nevada 3, Ohio 16, Virginia 2, Colorado 4, Ohio 15, Virginia 5, and Pennsylvania 3. Fielding began Saturday, Sept. 25, 2010 and ended on Thursday, Sept. 30, 2010. The aggregate sample has a margin of error of1.4%, larger for subgroups.
Horserace
If the elections for Congress were held today, which candidate would you vote for in your congressional district? / Base / MI7 / AZ1 / IL11 / MD1 / NM2 / NV3 / OH16 / VA2 / CO4 / OH15 / VA5 / PA3Democrat / 39 / 41 / 39 / 31 / 40 / 42 / 44 / 39 / 36 / 41 / 38 / 44 / 36
Republican / 45 / 41 / 46 / 49 / 43 / 46 / 47 / 42 / 42 / 44 / 47 / 45 / 49
Other / 2 / 4 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 0
Would not vote / 1 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 0
Don't know / 13 / 13 / 12 / 18 / 15 / 10 / 6 / 15 / 19 / 14 / 15 / 9 / 15
If the elections for Congress were held today, which candidate would you vote for in your congressional district? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Democrat / 39 / 82 / 9 / 34 / 37 / 42 / 42 / 37 / 40
Republican / 45 / 8 / 79 / 43 / 49 / 41 / 45 / 48 / 43
Other / 2 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 2
Would not vote / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Don't know / 13 / 8 / 11 / 19 / 12 / 15 / 12 / 12 / 14
Now think about the upcoming November election for Congress? How likely are you to vote in that election? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Definitely will vote / 87 / 85 / 91 / 85 / 89 / 85 / 73 / 86 / 89
Probably will vote / 13 / 15 / 9 / 15 / 11 / 15 / 27 / 14 / 11
Maybe will vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Probably will NOT vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Definitely will NOT vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Don't know / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Generally thinking about this November's congressional election, how passionate would you say you are about voting this November? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Passionate / Not Passionate / 93/6 / 94/6 / 96/3 / 90/9 / 94/5 / 92/7 / 94/6 / 93/7 / 93/6
Very passionate about voting / 73 / 68 / 83 / 67 / 75 / 71 / 56 / 69 / 78
Somewhat passionate about voting / 20 / 26 / 13 / 23 / 19 / 21 / 38 / 24 / 15
Not very passionate about voting / 4 / 4 / 2 / 6 / 3 / 5 / 3 / 6 / 4
Not at all passionate about voting / 2 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 1 / 2
Don't know / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 1
Thinking about the 2008 election, for whom did you vote for President? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Democrat Barack Obama / 42 / 86 / 6 / 41 / 39 / 45 / 44 / 41 / 43
Republican John McCain / 48 / 8 / 88 / 42 / 50 / 46 / 42 / 51 / 47
A third party candidate / 4 / 2 / 2 / 8 / 5 / 3 / 5 / 5 / 3
Did not vote / 2 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 6 / 1 / 1
Other / 1 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1
Don't know - prefer not to say / 4 / 2 / 2 / 6 / 3 / 5 / 2 / 2 / 4
Job approval
Thinking in general, would you say that you approve or disapprove of the job President Barack Obama has been doing? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Approve / Disapprove / 42/55 / 83/14 / 9/89 / 40/56 / 38/59 / 45/52 / 45/40 / 39/58 / 43/54
Strongly approve / 21 / 48 / 3 / 15 / 19 / 23 / 20 / 18 / 23
Somewhat approve / 21 / 35 / 6 / 25 / 19 / 22 / 25 / 21 / 20
Somewhat disapprove / 12 / 6 / 15 / 15 / 11 / 13 / 14 / 14 / 11
Strongly disapprove / 43 / 8 / 74 / 41 / 48 / 39 / 36 / 44 / 43
Don't know / 3 / 3 / 3 / 4 / 3 / 4 / 4 / 2 / 4
Thinking in general, would you say that you approve or disapprove of the job Congress has been doing? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Approve / Disapprove / 20/76 / 42/52 / 7/91 / 15/83 / 17/81 / 23/71 / 31/62 / 22/75 / 18/78
Strongly approve / 3 / 7 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 3 / 2 / 4 / 3
Somewhat approve / 17 / 35 / 6 / 13 / 14 / 20 / 29 / 18 / 15
Somewhat disapprove / 21 / 26 / 17 / 22 / 18 / 24 / 24 / 22 / 21
Strongly disapprove / 55 / 26 / 74 / 61 / 63 / 47 / 38 / 53 / 57
Don't know / 4 / 7 / 2 / 3 / 2 / 6 / 7 / 3 / 4
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican or an Independent? / Base / Now Vote for D / Now Vote for R / Now Undecided / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Democrat / 31 / 64 / 5 / 19 / 27 / 34 / 34 / 28 / 32
Independent / 29 / 25 / 28 / 43 / 33 / 25 / 27 / 29 / 29
Republican / 36 / 8 / 63 / 28 / 36 / 37 / 35 / 40 / 34
Other / 2 / 1 / 3 / 5 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 2 / 2
Don't know - prefer not to say / 2 / 1 / 1 / 5 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 2
specific questions
When you think about your vote in this November's congressional election, how important in your decision is your feeling about president Obama? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Important / Unimportant / 69/28 / 74/24 / 70/27 / 64/33 / 67/30 / 72/25 / 64/32 / 64/34 / 72/24
Very important / 45 / 49 / 49 / 38 / 45 / 46 / 41 / 38 / 50
Somewhat important / 24 / 25 / 21 / 26 / 22 / 26 / 23 / 26 / 22
Not very important / 12 / 11 / 10 / 16 / 13 / 11 / 16 / 15 / 10
Not at all important / 16 / 13 / 17 / 17 / 17 / 14 / 16 / 19 / 14
Don't know / 3 / 3 / 4 / 4 / 3 / 4 / 4 / 2 / 4
If the Presidential Democratic primaries were held today and the following two were the main candidates, who would you be more likely to vote for? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Barack Obama / 31 / 61 / 10 / 29 / 31 / 32 / 41 / 33 / 30
Hillary Clinton / 37 / 28 / 46 / 37 / 35 / 39 / 37 / 37 / 38
Don't know / 31 / 11 / 44 / 34 / 34 / 29 / 22 / 30 / 32
If you had to choose, would you say that today it's better that: / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
The President and majority in Congress are from the same party / 36 / 64 / 20 / 30 / 34 / 38 / 39 / 34 / 37
The President and majority in Congress are each from a different party / 48 / 23 / 64 / 53 / 51 / 45 / 48 / 53 / 45
Don't know / 16 / 13 / 15 / 18 / 15 / 17 / 13 / 13 / 18
If you had to choose, would you say that you will be voting for something or someone, or against something or someone in this November election to Congress? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
For something or someone / 58 / 70 / 52 / 55 / 56 / 61 / 64 / 60 / 57
Against something or someone / 30 / 21 / 36 / 33 / 34 / 27 / 30 / 32 / 29
Don't know / 11 / 9 / 11 / 11 / 11 / 12 / 6 / 8 / 14
Do you think the new health reform legislation should be repealed? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Yes / 56 / 23 / 86 / 54 / 60 / 52 / 56 / 60 / 53
No / 32 / 64 / 6 / 33 / 30 / 34 / 33 / 31 / 33
Don't know / 12 / 13 / 8 / 13 / 9 / 13 / 11 / 9 / 13
demographics
GENDER / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Male / 47 / 41 / 47 / 55 / 100 / 0 / 52 / 49 / 46
Female / 53 / 59 / 53 / 45 / 0 / 100 / 48 / 51 / 54
AGE / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
17-34 / 8 / 9 / 8 / 8 / 9 / 8 / 100 / 0 / 0
35-54 / 34 / 31 / 37 / 34 / 35 / 32 / 0 / 100 / 0
55 + / 54 / 57 / 51 / 53 / 53 / 55 / 0 / 0 / 100
Don't know/refused / 4 / 4 / 4 / 5 / 4 / 5 / 0 / 0 / 0
What do you consider to be your race? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
White / 83 / 72 / 90 / 87 / 82 / 84 / 76 / 84 / 84
Black or African-American / 4 / 11 / 0 / 2 / 4 / 4 / 6 / 4 / 4
Asian-American / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1
Hispanic or Latino / 5 / 10 / 3 / 3 / 5 / 6 / 10 / 5 / 5
Native American / 1 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 1 / 1
Other --- SPECIFY / 3 / 2 / 2 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 4 / 3 / 2
Don't know - prefer not to say / 3 / 2 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 3
What is the last year of schooling that you have completed? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Less than a high school degree / 3 / 6 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 1 / 5
High school graduate / 24 / 27 / 22 / 20 / 23 / 24 / 21 / 19 / 27
Non-college post-high school (technical school) / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Some college / 24 / 20 / 26 / 25 / 23 / 24 / 22 / 22 / 26
College graduate / 29 / 26 / 31 / 30 / 29 / 29 / 34 / 35 / 24
Post college - graduate school / 17 / 18 / 15 / 20 / 18 / 16 / 17 / 19 / 16
Technical school / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 2
Don't know - prefer not to say / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1
What is your current marital status? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Single / 12 / 15 / 8 / 13 / 13 / 11 / 35 / 13 / 8
Married / 71 / 64 / 78 / 70 / 75 / 68 / 60 / 80 / 68
Widowed / 10 / 12 / 8 / 9 / 5 / 14 / 1 / 1 / 16
Divorced / 6 / 7 / 4 / 6 / 5 / 6 / 2 / 6 / 6
Living with significant other, but not married / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 1 / 0
Prefer not to say / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 1
For statistical purposes only, please tell me which of the following categories best represents your total annual household income? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Less than $25, 000 / 13 / 17 / 10 / 12 / 10 / 15 / 23 / 7 / 16
$25, 000 - $34, 999 / 10 / 13 / 8 / 9 / 9 / 11 / 9 / 7 / 12
$35, 000 - $49, 999 / 13 / 13 / 13 / 13 / 13 / 13 / 16 / 12 / 13
$50, 000 - $74, 999 / 18 / 16 / 18 / 20 / 19 / 16 / 15 / 21 / 17
$75, 000 - $99, 999 / 12 / 12 / 13 / 12 / 13 / 11 / 14 / 15 / 10
$100, 000 - $149, 999 / 11 / 9 / 13 / 12 / 13 / 9 / 9 / 17 / 8
$150, 00 - $199, 999 / 3 / 3 / 4 / 4 / 4 / 3 / 3 / 5 / 2
$200, 000 and above / 2 / 3 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 2
Don't know - prefer not to say / 17 / 14 / 18 / 16 / 15 / 19 / 10 / 12 / 19
MICHIGAN 7TH DISTRICT
Penn Schoen Berland conducted 404 phone interviews among likely voters in November congressional election in Michigan’s 7th congressional district. Fielding began Saturday, Sept. 25, 2010 and ended on Monday, Sept. 27, 2010. The following audiences are broken out in this report:
- Base: Individuals who plan to vote in the mid-term election. (N=404, MOE ±4.9)
- D: Individuals who consider themselves a Democrat (N=103, MOE ±9.7)
- R: Individuals who consider themselves a Republican (N=107, MOE ±9.5)
- I: Individuals who consider themselves an Independent (N=161, MOE ±7.7)
- Males (N=179, MOE ±7.3)
- Females (N=225, MOE ±6.5)
- 18-34: Respondents aged 18 to 34 years old (N=24, MOE ±21.4)
- 35-54: Respondents aged 35-54 years old (N=121, MOE ±8.9)
- 55+: Respondents aged 55 years old or greater (N=229, MOE ±6.5)
Horserace
If the elections for Congress were held today, which candidate would you vote for in your congressional district? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+Mark Schauer / 41 / 87 / 6 / 35 / 38 / 44 / 50 / 35 / 43
Tim Walberg / 41 / 7 / 83 / 37 / 45 / 38 / 39 / 49 / 37
Other SPECIFY / 4 / 1 / 2 / 8 / 3 / 6 / 0 / 4 / 5
Would not vote / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 4 / 0 / 0
Don't know / 13 / 6 / 8 / 19 / 15 / 11 / 7 / 12 / 14
Now think about the upcoming November election for Congress? How likely are you to vote in that election? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Definitely will vote / 87 / 85 / 91 / 85 / 90 / 85 / 80 / 89 / 87
Probably will vote / 13 / 15 / 9 / 15 / 10 / 15 / 20 / 11 / 13
Will not vote / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Don't know / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Thinking about the 2008 election, for whom did you vote for President? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Democrat Barack Obama / 49 / 91 / 8 / 50 / 41 / 57 / 59 / 47 / 49
Republican John McCain / 39 / 4 / 87 / 33 / 46 / 32 / 36 / 46 / 35
A third party candidate / 4 / 1 / 1 / 7 / 6 / 2 / 4 / 4 / 4
Did not vote / 2 / 3 / 2 / 0 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 2
Other / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 0 / 1 / 1
Don't know / 5 / 0 / 1 / 9 / 4 / 6 / 0 / 1 / 9
Now think about the upcoming November election for Congress? How likely are you to vote in that election? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Definitely will vote / 87 / 85 / 91 / 85 / 90 / 85 / 80 / 89 / 87
Probably will vote / 13 / 15 / 9 / 15 / 10 / 15 / 20 / 11 / 13
Maybe will vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Probably will NOT vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Definitely will NOT vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Don't know / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Job approval
Thinking in general, would you say that you approve or disapprove of the job President Barack Obama has been doing? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+Approve/Disapprove / 46/50 / 86/10 / 10/87 / 45/52 / 41/57 / 51/44 / 59/32 / 37/61 / 48/47
Strongly approve / 24 / 53 / 5 / 18 / 18 / 30 / 30 / 20 / 25
Somewhat approve / 22 / 33 / 5 / 27 / 23 / 21 / 29 / 17 / 23
Somewhat disapprove / 13 / 5 / 16 / 18 / 13 / 14 / 12 / 19 / 11
Strongly disapprove / 37 / 5 / 71 / 34 / 44 / 30 / 20 / 42 / 36
Don't know / 4 / 4 / 3 / 4 / 2 / 6 / 9 / 2 / 5
Thinking in general, would you say that you approve or disapprove of the job Congress has been doing? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Approve/Disapprove / 23/72 / 44/48 / 13/84 / 15/82 / 22/76 / 24/69 / 41/38 / 21/76 / 21/75
Strongly approve / 2 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 4 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 3
Somewhat approve / 21 / 40 / 11 / 14 / 18 / 24 / 41 / 20 / 18
Somewhat disapprove / 24 / 27 / 20 / 26 / 16 / 31 / 16 / 28 / 23
Strongly disapprove / 48 / 21 / 64 / 56 / 60 / 38 / 22 / 48 / 52
Don't know / 5 / 7 / 3 / 3 / 2 / 7 / 21 / 2 / 4
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican or an Independent? / Base / Now Vote for D / Now Vote for R / Now DK on Vote / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+Democrat / 27 / 58 / 5 / 10 / 22 / 33 / 35 / 26 / 27
Independent / 39 / 33 / 35 / 61 / 44 / 34 / 27 / 38 / 41
Republican / 26 / 4 / 53 / 17 / 25 / 27 / 35 / 31 / 22
Other / 4 / 2 / 5 / 7 / 7 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 4
Don't know - prefer not to say / 3 / 3 / 3 / 6 / 2 / 4 / 0 / 2 / 5
specific questions
When you think about your vote in this November's congressional election, how important in your decision is your feeling about president Obama? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+Very important / 40 / 52 / 42 / 30 / 41 / 39 / 41 / 31 / 45
Somewhat important / 27 / 23 / 26 / 30 / 24 / 29 / 36 / 28 / 25
Not very important / 16 / 14 / 9 / 24 / 14 / 18 / 15 / 16 / 16
Not at all important / 13 / 8 / 17 / 15 / 18 / 8 / 8 / 22 / 8
Don't know / 4 / 4 / 7 / 1 / 3 / 5 / 0 / 3 / 6
If the Presidential Democratic primaries were held today and the following two were the main candidates, who would you be more likely to vote for? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Barack Obama / 35 / 58 / 16 / 34 / 30 / 40 / 33 / 34 / 36
Hillary Clinton / 31 / 25 / 38 / 31 / 30 / 31 / 37 / 26 / 32
Don't know / 34 / 17 / 46 / 36 / 39 / 29 / 30 / 40 / 31
Generally thinking about this November's congressional election, how passionate would you say you are about voting this November? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Very passionate about voting / 74 / 70 / 85 / 65 / 82 / 66 / 42 / 69 / 81
Somewhat passionate about voting / 18 / 22 / 6 / 25 / 14 / 21 / 49 / 19 / 13
Not very passionate about voting / 5 / 4 / 4 / 7 / 2 / 7 / 0 / 11 / 2
Not at all passionate about voting / 3 / 2 / 5 / 2 / 0 / 5 / 9 / 1 / 2
Don't know / 1 / 2 / 0 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 2
If you had to choose, would you say that today it's better that: / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
The President and majority in Congress are from the same party / 37 / 67 / 13 / 37 / 37 / 37 / 46 / 32 / 38
The President and majority in Congress are each from a different party / 47 / 15 / 71 / 51 / 47 / 47 / 54 / 57 / 40
Don't know / 16 / 18 / 16 / 12 / 16 / 16 / 0 / 11 / 22
Do you think the new health reform legislation should be repealed? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Yes / 54 / 22 / 88 / 48 / 56 / 52 / 45 / 68 / 48
No / 37 / 63 / 8 / 42 / 33 / 40 / 48 / 28 / 40
Don't know / 9 / 14 / 4 / 10 / 11 / 8 / 8 / 5 / 12
demographics
GENDER / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+Male / 47 / 37 / 45 / 54 / 100 / 0 / 48 / 45 / 48
Female / 53 / 63 / 55 / 46 / 0 / 100 / 52 / 55 / 52
AGE / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
18-34 / 9 / 11 / 12 / 6 / 9 / 9 / 100 / 0 / 0
35-54 / 32 / 30 / 38 / 31 / 31 / 33 / 0 / 100 / 0
55+ / 59 / 59 / 50 / 62 / 60 / 58 / 0 / 0 / 100
Don't know/refused / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
What do you consider to be your race? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
White / 86 / 82 / 88 / 89 / 82 / 89 / 75 / 87 / 87
Black or African-American / 5 / 12 / 2 / 3 / 6 / 4 / 12 / 3 / 5
Asian-American / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 0
Hispanic or Latino / 1 / 2 / 3 / 0 / 1 / 2 / 0 / 3 / 1
Native American / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 4 / 0 / 0
Other --- SPECIFY / 4 / 1 / 2 / 6 / 6 / 3 / 9 / 6 / 3
Don't know - prefer not to say / 2 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 4
What is the last year of schooling that you have completed? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Less than a high school degree / 4 / 8 / 4 / 2 / 4 / 4 / 4 / 0 / 7
High school graduate / 25 / 32 / 19 / 23 / 25 / 25 / 12 / 29 / 26
Non-college post-high school (technical school) / 1 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1
Some college / 26 / 24 / 28 / 23 / 20 / 31 / 25 / 29 / 24
College graduate / 24 / 18 / 28 / 28 / 27 / 22 / 36 / 23 / 23
Post college - graduate school / 15 / 14 / 13 / 18 / 17 / 13 / 18 / 15 / 14
Technical school / 4 / 3 / 7 / 4 / 5 / 4 / 4 / 4 / 4
Don't know - prefer not to say / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1
What is your current marital status? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Single / 14 / 19 / 15 / 9 / 13 / 14 / 39 / 15 / 9
Married / 68 / 55 / 70 / 75 / 71 / 64 / 61 / 78 / 63
Widowed / 11 / 13 / 11 / 8 / 9 / 12 / 0 / 1 / 17
Divorced / 7 / 12 / 3 / 8 / 6 / 9 / 0 / 5 / 9
Living with significant other, but not married / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Don't know - prefer not to say / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 1
For statistical purposes only, please tell me which of the following categories best represents your total annual household income? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 18-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Less than $25, 000 / 15 / 24 / 15 / 8 / 11 / 19 / 27 / 11 / 15
$25, 000 - $34, 999 / 11 / 17 / 7 / 9 / 9 / 12 / 4 / 11 / 12
$35, 000 - $49, 999 / 15 / 13 / 14 / 16 / 16 / 13 / 16 / 13 / 15
$50, 000 - $74, 999 / 17 / 17 / 15 / 20 / 18 / 16 / 12 / 24 / 14
$75, 000 - $99, 999 / 13 / 11 / 17 / 14 / 14 / 13 / 17 / 16 / 12
$100, 000 - $149, 999 / 9 / 4 / 10 / 11 / 10 / 8 / 13 / 12 / 7
$150, 00 - $199, 999 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 4 / 4 / 3 / 4 / 2 / 4
$200, 000 and above / 2 / 2 / 3 / 2 / 0 / 4 / 0 / 4 / 2
Don't know - prefer not to say / 14 / 10 / 15 / 16 / 17 / 12 / 6 / 8 / 19
ARIZONA 1ST DISTRICT
Penn Schoen Berland conducted 403 phone interviews among likely voters in November congressional election in Arizona’s 1st congressional district. Fielding began Saturday, Sept. 25, 2010 and ended on Thursday, Sept. 30, 2010. The following audiences are broken out in this report:
- Base: Individuals who plan to vote in the mid-term election. (N=403, MOE ±4.9)
- D: Individuals who consider themselves a Democrat (N=80, MOE ±11.0)
- R: Individuals who consider themselves a Republican (N=191, MOE ±7.1)
- I: Individuals who consider themselves an Independent (N=117, MOE ±9.0)
- Males (N=202, MOE ±6.9)
- Females (N=201, MOE ±6.9)
- 18-34: Respondents aged 18 to 34 years old (N=16, MOE ±24.5)
- 35-54: Respondents aged 35-54 years old (N=117, MOE ±9.1)
- 55+: Respondents aged 55 years old or greater (N=241, MOE ±6.3)
Horserace supported by the in this November's congressional election, would you say it makes you more or less likely to support that candidate or it makes no difference to you?
If the elections for Congress were held today, which candidate would you vote for in your congressional district? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Ann Kirkpatrick / 39 / 78 / 13 / 37 / 29 / 47 / 50 / 36 / 38
Paul Gosar / 46 / 9 / 73 / 43 / 58 / 35 / 44 / 47 / 46
Other SPECIFY / 1 / 0 / 0 / 5 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 3
Would not vote / 2 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 0 / 3 / 0 / 2 / 2
Don't know / 12 / 12 / 12 / 13 / 11 / 13 / 5 / 16 / 11
Now think about the upcoming November election for Congress? How likely are you to vote in that election? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Definitely will vote / 89 / 79 / 97 / 86 / 90 / 87 / 56 / 91 / 93
Probably will vote / 11 / 21 / 3 / 14 / 10 / 13 / 44 / 9 / 7
Maybe will vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Probably will NOT vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Definitely will NOT vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Don't know / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Thinking about the 2008 election, for whom did you vote for President? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Democrat Barack Obama / 33 / 75 / 5 / 33 / 26 / 40 / 30 / 33 / 35
Republican John McCain / 56 / 13 / 88 / 52 / 60 / 53 / 43 / 58 / 57
A third party candidate / 4 / 1 / 4 / 7 / 6 / 2 / 11 / 5 / 3
Did not vote / 3 / 7 / 0 / 4 / 5 / 1 / 17 / 3 / 1
Other / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1
Don't know - prefer not to say / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 0 / 2 / 3
Job approval
Thinking in general, would you say that you approve or disapprove of the job President Barack Obama has been doing? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Approve / Disapprove / 35/63 / 76/21 / 6/92 / 34/64 / 28/71 / 42/55 / 51/48 / 33/64 / 32/65
Strongly approve / 18 / 45 / 3 / 12 / 12 / 24 / 27 / 15 / 18
Somewhat approve / 17 / 31 / 3 / 22 / 16 / 18 / 24 / 18 / 14
Somewhat disapprove / 8 / 11 / 7 / 9 / 8 / 8 / 10 / 9 / 8
Strongly disapprove / 55 / 10 / 85 / 55 / 63 / 47 / 38 / 55 / 57
Don't know / 2 / 4 / 1 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 0 / 3 / 2
Thinking in general, would you say that you approve or disapprove of the job Congress has been doing? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Approve / Disapprove / 12/86 / 28/69 / 3/96 / 10/87 / 6/94 / 19/78 / 33/67 / 9/89 / 12/86
Strongly approve / 1 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 2
Somewhat approve / 11 / 26 / 2 / 10 / 5 / 18 / 33 / 9 / 10
Somewhat disapprove / 22 / 37 / 16 / 15 / 17 / 27 / 17 / 27 / 20
Strongly disapprove / 64 / 32 / 80 / 72 / 77 / 51 / 50 / 62 / 66
Don't know / 2 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 0 / 3 / 2
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican or an Independent? / Base / Now Vote D / Now Vote R / Now DK on Vote / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Democrat / 30 / 61 / 6 / 25 / 21 / 38 / 46 / 25 / 29
Independent / 26 / 25 / 24 / 34 / 31 / 21 / 34 / 28 / 24
Republican / 44 / 14 / 70 / 41 / 47 / 41 / 21 / 47 / 47
Other / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Don't know - prefer not to say / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
specific questions
When you think about your vote in this November's congressional election, how important in your decision is your feeling about president Obama? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Important / Unimportant / 69/26 / 68/25 / 70/25 / 69/27 / 64/30 / 74/22 / 50/50 / 68/29 / 74/20
Very important / 49 / 42 / 54 / 49 / 48 / 50 / 50 / 45 / 52
Somewhat important / 20 / 26 / 16 / 20 / 16 / 24 / 0 / 23 / 22
Not very important / 9 / 13 / 5 / 9 / 11 / 6 / 31 / 6 / 6
Not at all important / 17 / 12 / 20 / 18 / 19 / 16 / 19 / 23 / 14
Don't know / 5 / 6 / 5 / 3 / 5 / 5 / 0 / 3 / 6
If the Presidential Democratic primaries were held today and the following two were the main candidates, who would you be more likely to vote for? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Barack Obama / 33 / 71 / 9 / 31 / 30 / 36 / 59 / 32 / 28
Hillary Clinton / 39 / 25 / 53 / 30 / 41 / 36 / 41 / 42 / 37
Don't know / 28 / 4 / 38 / 40 / 28 / 29 / 0 / 26 / 35
Generally thinking about this November's congressional election, how passionate would you say you are about voting this November? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Very passionate about voting / 78 / 60 / 96 / 68 / 80 / 76 / 38 / 81 / 83
Somewhat passionate about voting / 18 / 38 / 3 / 19 / 13 / 21 / 62 / 15 / 11
Not very passionate about voting / 3 / 2 / 1 / 9 / 5 / 2 / 0 / 3 / 5
Not at all passionate about voting / 1 / 0 / 0 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1
Don't know / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1
If you had to choose, would you say that today it's better that: / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
The President and majority in Congress are from the same party / 38 / 63 / 22 / 37 / 29 / 46 / 60 / 32 / 41
The President and majority in Congress are each from a different party / 46 / 27 / 64 / 39 / 52 / 41 / 40 / 51 / 45
Don't know / 16 / 10 / 14 / 25 / 19 / 13 / 0 / 17 / 14
If you had to choose, would you say that you will be voting for something or someone, or against something or someone in this November election to Congress? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
For something or someone / 46 / 49 / 39 / 54 / 41 / 51 / 40 / 44 / 47
Against something or someone / 38 / 45 / 42 / 25 / 42 / 35 / 47 / 44 / 33
Don't know / 16 / 6 / 19 / 20 / 18 / 14 / 13 / 13 / 20
Do you think the new health reform legislation should be repealed? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Yes / 65 / 28 / 91 / 65 / 75 / 56 / 66 / 70 / 61
No / 27 / 62 / 4 / 27 / 18 / 36 / 34 / 20 / 33
Don't know / 7 / 10 / 5 / 8 / 6 / 8 / 0 / 10 / 6
demographics
GENDER / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Male / 48 / 34 / 52 / 57 / 100 / 0 / 67 / 47 / 46
Female / 52 / 66 / 48 / 43 / 0 / 100 / 33 / 53 / 54
AGE / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
17-34 / 10 / 15 / 5 / 13 / 14 / 6 / 100 / 0 / 0
35-54 / 33 / 27 / 35 / 36 / 32 / 34 / 0 / 100 / 0
55+ / 50 / 49 / 54 / 45 / 48 / 52 / 0 / 0 / 100
Don't know/refused / 7 / 9 / 6 / 6 / 6 / 8 / 0 / 0 / 0
What do you consider to be your race? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
White / 81 / 68 / 86 / 87 / 80 / 81 / 61 / 84 / 82
Black or African-American / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Asian-American / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 1
Hispanic or Latino / 8 / 19 / 4 / 3 / 6 / 9 / 21 / 5 / 9
Native American / 4 / 9 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 6 / 6 / 6 / 2
Other --- SPECIFY / 4 / 1 / 5 / 4 / 6 / 2 / 6 / 2 / 3
Don't know - prefer not to say / 3 / 1 / 4 / 4 / 5 / 2 / 5 / 2 / 3
What is the last year of schooling that you have completed? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Less than a high school degree / 3 / 5 / 2 / 4 / 3 / 4 / 6 / 5 / 2
High school graduate / 20 / 27 / 21 / 10 / 20 / 21 / 38 / 15 / 18
Non-college post-high school (technical school) / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 0
Some college / 30 / 28 / 34 / 28 / 28 / 32 / 33 / 27 / 35
College graduate / 28 / 28 / 26 / 33 / 28 / 28 / 23 / 31 / 26
Post college - graduate school / 15 / 10 / 14 / 21 / 17 / 13 / 0 / 19 / 15
Technical school / 1 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 2
Don't know - prefer not to say / 1 / 1 / 2 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 1
What is your current marital status? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Single / 14 / 17 / 9 / 20 / 19 / 10 / 63 / 10 / 7
Married / 67 / 60 / 73 / 64 / 69 / 64 / 21 / 79 / 69
Widowed / 10 / 10 / 10 / 9 / 4 / 15 / 6 / 1 / 15
Divorced / 6 / 8 / 5 / 3 / 3 / 8 / 0 / 7 / 6
Living with significant other, but not married / 2 / 3 / 0 / 4 / 1 / 3 / 11 / 2 / 1
Don't know - prefer not to say / 2 / 2 / 3 / 0 / 3 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1
For statistical purposes only, please tell me which of the following categories best represents your total annual household income? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Less than $25, 000 / 20 / 29 / 12 / 23 / 16 / 24 / 60 / 13 / 19
$25, 000 - $34, 999 / 13 / 13 / 15 / 9 / 11 / 14 / 6 / 13 / 16
$35, 000 - $49, 999 / 15 / 13 / 17 / 14 / 17 / 13 / 13 / 16 / 14
$50, 000 - $74, 999 / 14 / 11 / 15 / 16 / 17 / 12 / 0 / 16 / 17
$75, 000 - $99, 999 / 11 / 9 / 9 / 15 / 12 / 9 / 10 / 18 / 6
$100, 000 - $149, 999 / 9 / 6 / 12 / 8 / 8 / 10 / 0 / 13 / 8
$150, 00 - $199, 999 / 2 / 0 / 3 / 4 / 2 / 2 / 0 / 3 / 2
$200, 000 and above / 1 / 2 / 2 / 0 / 3 / 0 / 6 / 1 / 1
Don't know - prefer not to say / 15 / 18 / 15 / 10 / 13 / 16 / 5 / 7 / 19
ILLINOIS 11th DISTRICT
Penn Schoen Berland conducted 401 phone interviews among likely voters in November congressional election in Illinois 11th congressional district. Fielding began Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2010 and ended on Thursday 30, 2010. The following audiences are broken out in this report:
- Base: Individuals who plan to vote in the mid-term election. (N=401, MOE ±4.9)
- D: Individuals who consider themselves a Democrat (N=92, MOE ±10.2)
- R: Individuals who consider themselves a Republican (N=144, MOE ±8.2)
- I: Individuals who consider themselves an Independent (N=136, MOE ±8.4)
- Males (N=217, MOE ±6.6)
- Females (N=184, MOE ±7.2)
- 18-34: Respondents aged 18 to 34 years old (N=28, MOE ±18.5)
- 35-54: Respondents aged 35-54 years old (N=151, MOE ±8.0)
- 55+: Respondents aged 55 years old or greater (N=200, MOE ±6.9)
Horserace
If the elections for Congress were held today, which candidate would you vote for in your congressional district? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Debbie Halvorson / 31 / 81 / 6 / 24 / 28 / 33 / 33 / 34 / 27
Adam Kinzinger / 49 / 5 / 78 / 53 / 54 / 44 / 43 / 48 / 51
Other / 1 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 0
Don't know / 18 / 11 / 15 / 18 / 13 / 23 / 24 / 14 / 20
Now think about the upcoming November election for Congress. How likely are you to vote in that election? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Definitely will vote / 86 / 88 / 90 / 83 / 88 / 84 / 88 / 82 / 89
Probably will vote / 14 / 12 / 10 / 17 / 12 / 16 / 12 / 18 / 11
Maybe will vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Probably will NOT vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Definitely will NOT vote / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Don't know / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Thinking about the 2008 election, for whom did you vote for President? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Democrat Barack Obama / 41 / 88 / 8 / 40 / 40 / 42 / 34 / 47 / 38
Republican John McCain / 47 / 3 / 87 / 39 / 47 / 47 / 37 / 43 / 53
A third party candidate / 4 / 0 / 1 / 11 / 6 / 3 / 2 / 7 / 4
Did not vote / 2 / 4 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 21 / 0 / 0
Other / 1 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 2 / 0 / 6 / 0 / 0
Don't know - prefer not to say / 5 / 3 / 2 / 6 / 3 / 6 / 0 / 3 / 5
Job approval
Thinking in general, would you say that you approve or disapprove of the job President Barack Obama has been doing? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Approve / Disapprove / 40/57 / 87/12 / 12/86 / 36/59 / 39/59 / 42/53 / 32/68 / 46/53 / 37/59
Strongly approve / 15 / 40 / 2 / 11 / 14 / 16 / 3 / 15 / 17
Somewhat approve / 25 / 47 / 10 / 25 / 25 / 26 / 29 / 31 / 20
Somewhat disapprove / 14 / 3 / 16 / 17 / 14 / 13 / 23 / 12 / 13
Strongly disapprove / 43 / 9 / 70 / 42 / 45 / 40 / 45 / 41 / 46
Don't know / 3 / 1 / 2 / 5 / 1 / 5 / 0 / 1 / 4
Thinking in general, would you say that you approve or disapprove of the job Congress has been doing? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Approve / Disapprove / 19/77 / 50/44 / 5/93 / 15/81 / 20/80 / 20/74 / 25/73 / 24/72 / 17/80
Strongly approve / 3 / 7 / 1 / 2 / 4 / 3 / 4 / 4 / 3
Somewhat approve / 16 / 43 / 4 / 13 / 16 / 17 / 21 / 20 / 14
Somewhat disapprove / 21 / 19 / 17 / 22 / 17 / 25 / 32 / 21 / 19
Strongly disapprove / 56 / 25 / 76 / 59 / 63 / 49 / 41 / 51 / 61
Don't know / 4 / 6 / 1 / 4 / 1 / 6 / 2 / 4 / 4
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican or an Independent? / Base / Now Vote D / Now Vote R / Now DK on Vote / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Democrat / 24 / 62 / 2 / 16 / 21 / 26 / 28 / 25 / 23
Independent / 33 / 26 / 35 / 37 / 39 / 26 / 17 / 31 / 34
Republican / 35 / 7 / 56 / 27 / 35 / 35 / 37 / 37 / 36
Other / 5 / 5 / 4 / 10 / 3 / 8 / 9 / 6 / 3
Don't know - prefer not to say / 3 / 0 / 2 / 10 / 2 / 5 / 9 / 1 / 4
specific questions
When you think about your vote in this November's congressional election, how important in your decision is your feeling about president Obama? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+Important / Unimportant / 77/21 / 81/19 / 78/18 / 74/25 / 78/19 / 75/22 / 71/25 / 74/26 / 81/15
Very important / 52 / 57 / 54 / 50 / 48 / 55 / 52 / 47 / 55
Somewhat important / 25 / 24 / 24 / 24 / 30 / 20 / 19 / 27 / 26
Not very important / 8 / 5 / 4 / 12 / 9 / 6 / 6 / 13 / 3
Not at all important / 13 / 14 / 14 / 13 / 10 / 16 / 19 / 13 / 12
Don't know / 3 / 0 / 4 / 1 / 3 / 3 / 4 / 0 / 4
If the Presidential Democratic primaries were held today and the following two were the main candidates, who would you be more likely to vote for? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Barack Obama / 31 / 75 / 8 / 26 / 32 / 31 / 32 / 36 / 29
Hillary Clinton / 38 / 18 / 48 / 40 / 34 / 43 / 44 / 36 / 37
Don't know / 30 / 7 / 43 / 33 / 34 / 27 / 23 / 27 / 34
Generally thinking about this November's congressional election, how passionate would you say you are about voting this November? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Very passionate about voting / 71 / 63 / 81 / 72 / 75 / 66 / 70 / 65 / 73
Somewhat passionate about voting / 23 / 37 / 13 / 20 / 19 / 26 / 22 / 26 / 21
Not very passionate about voting / 5 / 0 / 3 / 7 / 3 / 7 / 8 / 8 / 3
Not at all passionate about voting / 1 / 0 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 1
Don't know / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 2
If you had to choose, would you say that today it's better that: / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
The President and majority in Congress are from the same party / 33 / 66 / 17 / 28 / 28 / 38 / 22 / 34 / 33
The President and majority in Congress are each from a different party / 51 / 23 / 68 / 54 / 62 / 41 / 64 / 57 / 47
Don't know / 16 / 11 / 15 / 18 / 10 / 21 / 14 / 9 / 20
If you had to choose, would you say that you will be voting for something or someone, or against something or someone in this November election to Congress? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
For something or someone / 60 / 78 / 64 / 40 / 54 / 65 / 85 / 60 / 56
Against something or someone / 30 / 10 / 31 / 49 / 39 / 21 / 15 / 30 / 33
Don't know / 10 / 12 / 5 / 11 / 7 / 14 / 0 / 10 / 11
Do you think the new health reform legislation should be repealed? / Base / D / R / I / Male / Female / 17-34 / 35-54 / 55+
Yes / 59 / 27 / 84 / 60 / 61 / 56 / 78 / 55 / 59
No / 29 / 64 / 8 / 27 / 27 / 31 / 15 / 32 / 29
Don't know / 12 / 9 / 8 / 14 / 11 / 12 / 7 / 13 / 13
demographics