Paper 12 (Leppko Provincial Study) Carana Scenario BN CPX

Paper 12 (Leppko Provincial Study) Carana Scenario BN CPX

Background

While the eastern portions of the province of Leppko have not seen the wholesale fighting that has affected other provinces, the southwest portion of the province, which is under the control of the Independent Combattantsdu SudCarana (ICSC) has been severely affected. The weak command and control structure coupled with the lack of discipline and internal cohesion mean the behavior of any ICSC group is unpredictable, and the population is justifiably wary. Large groups of internally displaced persons (IDPs) have moved into the cities, particularly Corma, Maldosa and Eres, to avoid the violence. No fixed IDP camps exist; however, several shantytowns have grown up and there have been increasing amounts of tension due to the increased demand on resources. There has been a sharp rise in the amount of criminal activity in Maldosa, including: theft, carjacking and robbery. Carana National Police (CNP) in Maldosahave recently indicated that they cannot guarantee the safety of supply shipments traveling by road or operating inside the city. Many businesses and organizations have started hiring private security, often banding together to reduce security costs.

Geography

The Province of Leppko is 400 sq km, with 150 km of coastline and is located in the southeastern portion of Carana. The province capital of Leppko is Corma. It is located in north easternLeppko. There are two major areas in the province: the plains in the eastern and central parts of the province and the highlands in the West and Southwest areas. The main river in Leppko is the Torongo. There had been discussion of damming the Torongoriver, but all discussion of this has died out with the years of conflict.The soil of Leppkois fertile, but intensive use has left large areas barren and useless for agricultural purposes, primarily in the northeastern portion of the province. In recent years, there have been an increasing number of droughts. This has significantly affected crops and pastureland in Leppko. The rainy season runs from early October to December. Nomadic herdsmen migrate from west to east during the dry season, in the northernmost portion of the province, which sometimes leads to clashes with settled farmers. The jungle covered mountains of the extreme southwest contains rare wood and timber. Copper is mined around Corma. The total population is 1.7 million, more than half of whom are under the age of 18 years. Life expectancy is 45 years and the infant mortality rate is nine deaths per thousand live births. The fertility rate is five children per woman.

Ethnic Distribution

Although Carana consists of three main groups, Tatsis comprise 73% of the population of Leppko. The Falin comprise 18% of the population of the province, predominantly in the cities of Maldosa, Turen and Corma, but also inhabiting smaller villages. The Kori comprise 6% of the population and live primarily in the northwestern cities in Leppko, with a significant number in Xalksa. Some Kori are nomads and their annual migration across the northernmost portion of the province, with their herds, is an increasing source of tension with the settled population. All three groups are intermingled in several areas and this has sometimes led to violent interethnic clashes, primarily in Maldosa, Turin and Corma. There are small numbers of Elassonians who have fled the civil war in Rimosa living in the southern portion of Leppko. They represent approximately 2% of the population and are found in Eres.

Tensions between communities are aggravated by pervasive tribalism and perceptions of state bias against the Tatsi, the virtual absence of roads and infrastructure, widespread food insecurity, land disputes and limited access to justice. There have been repeated cycles of escalating conflict that have sown deep mistrust. The Church is a voice that is widely respected in the country and its engagement in inter-community reconciliation has been crucial to achieve success. Christian Humanitarian Services (CHS), an international NGO, has achieved a high degree of credibility through their work in Carana.

History

Carana gained its independence in 1962 and formed a democratic style of government with legislative, executive and judicial branches of government. Joseph Uroma (the leader of the largest of the liberation movements and with a power base derived from the backing of the Falinmajority in the east of the country) came to power after independence. He consolidated his rule by suppressing all other political parties. Initially popular, his government became increasingly alienated from its people due to the deteriorating economic situation, corruption and inefficiency. He was overthrown in a military coup in 1971. The military government re-established a free market economy, but was unable to solve Carana’s mounting economic problems. There was a further military coup in 1975, which established a degree of stability until an economic crisis in 1983 seriously weakened its authority.

Free elections were conducted in 1986, under international pressure, which were won by thePartiDemocratique de Carana (PDC). Its leader, Jackson Ogavo, became the country’s firstelected President. Initially, the government was reasonably representative of the ethnic balance of the country, although still dominated by the Falin, and it followed democratic principles that were later enshrined in the 1991 constitution. Some economic and social reforms were realized, but Ogavo became increasingly preoccupied with suppressing opposition groups and replaced all key Kori and Tatsi government ministers with members of hisFalin tribe. Repression corruption and economic inefficiency have mounted. Since1998, the economy has been in decline and humanitarian crises occur on a regular basis.

Current Situation

On19May2009, afteryearsofviolent conflictinCarana aceasefire agreement (KalariTreaty)wassignedbetweenthe country’sgovernmentandrebelforces.Theagreement foreseesthataUnitedNationsmandatedmissionwillassistinoverseeingandverifyingthe ceasefireandinthestabilisationofthecountry.TheUNSecurityCouncilinResolution18544 of July 2009 authorises the establishment of the United Nations Assistance in Carana(UNAC)underChapterVIIoftheUNCharter. While ICSC was a signatory to the Kalari Peace Agreement, the loose affiliation of the group, in general, has meant that it has not been widely accepted by all ICSC personnel in Leppko. DDR efforts were slow to begin, and came to a standstill once reintegration efforts stalled. There has been a violent history between the various groups of ICSC as well as between the ICSC and local CDF units, characterized by attempts to increase their areas of influence and consolidate their power; as a result the post-Treaty period has been characterized by low-level revenge attacks and power grabs. The civilian population in Leppko, particularly in ICSC held areas, has been traumatized by incessant attacks by the various armed groups

Relations with NeighbouringCountries

Carana’s external boundaries result from the colonial time and do not represent the ethnic distribution in the region. The Tatsimake up45 percent of the population of Rimosa, which borders the province to the south. Many Tatsifavour secession of Leppko from Carana and the creation of a ‘Greater Elassonia’, which would be created out of southern Carana and northern Rimosa.

Rimosa has been in the grips of a civil war between two rival ethnic groups; the dominant majority Pleionians and the minority Elassonians. Most of the interethnic fighting in Rimosa has taken place in northern Rimosa, near the border of Carana, where a rebel army calling itself the Elassasonian Liberation Front (ELF) has waged a guerrilla-style campaign against government forces and pro-government Pleionianmilitias. The ELF is said to have links with the ICSC in Carana and strongholds in the mountains of southwest Leppko.Elassasonian refugees have come across the border and are living in shantytowns in Eres.

Political system, governance and human rights

Although Carana has ademocratic political system, the ICSC is too fractured to mount much of an organized political movement. As a result, the Tatsis who make up the majority population of Leppko are increasingly disillusioned and feel the government does not represent them or their needs.

Provincial Governors are appointed by the President. As a result of the rule of President Ogavo, the political leadership of Leppko is overwhelmingly filled with members of the hisFalin tribal members, to include many Carana National Police (CNP) Chiefs.

Governmental and Non-Govermental Organizations and Representatives

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), UN Development Program (UNDP), World Food Program (WFP), World Health Organization (WHO), the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and Christian Humanitarian Services (CHS) have been active in Leppko for several years and have an established field presence. With the establishment of the UNAC mission UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) set up mission offices in Galasi as well as Sector offices to coordinate humanitarian assistance efforts with UNAC efforts. The UNAC/OCHA Sector office is located in Corma.

OCHA is the Sector Lead for coordination of humanitarian response and has Sector offices in Corma. IOM is the cluster lead for issues associated with IDPs. WFP is the functional Food Security Cluster lead in Sector 3. IOs/NGOs currently operating in Sector 3 have limited access to areas under the control of ICSC.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)

UNHCR has been active in Carana for several years. Their primary focus in Leppko has been the plight of Elassonian refugees who have taken refuge in Eres; however the plight of the large numbers of IDPs from southwest Leppko, to other regions, is of grave concern as well.The agency is mandated to lead and co-ordinate international action to protect refugees and resolve refugee problems worldwide. Its primary purpose is to safeguard the rights and well-being of refugees. It strives to ensure that everyone can exercise the right to seek asylum and find safe refuge in another state, with the option to return home voluntarily, integrate locally or to resettle in a third country. UNHCR routinely ships supplies in through the Corma airport or via the Port of Maldosa Bay and has storage warehouse facilities in Maldosa.

UN Development Program (UNDP)

UNDP partners with OCHA to coordinate humanitarian assistance in Carana with the efforts of UNAC. UNDP has been working with the GNR to develop strategies to combat poverty, primarily by expanding access to economic opportunities and resources, linking poverty programmes with the GNR’s newly developed goals and policies, and ensuring a greater voice for the poor. UNDP has a limited presence in Sector 3, primarily working with the Provincial Government Officials on a number of developmental pilot projects, with the intent of expanding its efforts in the area as security improves. UNDP has established links with the unions and trade organizations in Leppko to begin dialog about revitalizing local industries. UNDP has Country offices in Galasi, and field offices in Faron and Corma.

World Food Program (WFP)

WFP has been working in Carana since before the conflict began and strives to eradicate hunger and malnutrition, with the ultimate goal in mind of eliminating the need for food aid itself. The conflict and subsequent disruption to the agricultural and economic system, along with the displacement of such a large part of the population, has resulted in food crisis in several areas throughout the country, although in Sector 3, the area around Eres is most severely affected. WFP routinely ships supplies in through the Corma airport or via the Port of Maldosa Bay and has storage warehouse facilities in Maldosa. WFP has a field office in Eres.

World Health Organization (WHO)

The World Health Organization (WHO) is the specialized United Nations agency for global health matters. The mission of WHO in Carana is the attainment by all peoples of the highest level of health. The WHO Country Office (WCO) is located in Galasi and there are WHO Liaison Offices (WLOs) in Faron and Maldosa to support the country in reaching its national health goals. The WLO in Maldosa has been focused on providing technical support, catalyzing change, and building sustainable institutional capacity at the hospital in Maldosa; andmonitoring the health situation and assessing health trends throughout Leppko.

International Organization for Migration (IOM)

IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As the leading international organization for migration, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: Assist in meeting the growing operational challenges of migration management; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. IOM has been involved in the region for a number of years, as a result of the widespread migration caused by the civil wars in the area. IOM has been very active in coordinating IDP efforts in Carana and has worked extensively in Leppko, although, primarily in Eres and Maldosa. IOM has Country offices in Galasi, but has the capability to surge support to support emerging situations.

International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)

The ICRC is committed to responding rapidly and efficiently to the humanitarian needs of people affected by armed conflict or by a natural disaster occurring in a conflict area. The ICRC's mission is to protect the lives and dignity of victims of war and other situations of violence, and to provide them with assistance. One way in which the ICRC does this is to ensure respect for the rights of people affected. That involves reminding authorities and others of their legal obligations under international humanitarian law and international human rights law. ICRC has been active in Carana for a number of years and has made a particular effort to focus on ICSC in Leppko. There is a small ICRC field office in Muka. ICRC has also supported the establishment of the Carana Red Cross as well.

Christian Humanitarian Services (CHS)

CHSis a Christian charity organization whose stated mission is to relieve suffering, to foster self-reliance for people of all nationalities and religions, and to provide opportunities for service. CHS has been operating in Carana since 2001 and has developed partnerships with various church organizations throughout the country. The Chief of Mission is located in Galasi, but there are regional offices in Corma, and Faron.

CHS considers humanitarian work to be an essential part of its mission to bless all humanity in emulation of Jesus Christ “who went about doing good, and healing all that were oppressed” (Acts10:38). Throughout its history, CHS has always provided for those in need and is perhaps best known for its efforts to take care of its own. In the early 1800s, the founder of CHS organized a women’s relief society, which aimed to provide “relief” to suffering members and ultimately to all people. As CHS has grown, the welfare efforts have expanded to help people around the world regardless of religion, race, or nationality. CHS coordinates these efforts in partnership with government and other nonprofit agencies around the world. The top humanitarian initiatives include clean water, vision treatment, wheelchair provision, neonatal resuscitation, and disaster relief. Other initiatives include immunizations, family enrichment programs, and family food production. All of the funding for CHS comes from the philanthropic support of church members and other donors.

Economy

Carana was a major exporter of copper, during the colonial period, which was mined around Mia and Corma and then transported by railway to Maldosa from where it was shipped abroad. The area between Maldosa and Corma remains themost heavily industrialized portion of Carana as a result of this legacy and was once a strong hold of Carana’s Communist Party (CCP). There is a tradition of work in the docks, mines and railways being handed from father to son and all three industries are heavily unionized. Copper production all but ended during the conflict, although the mines are now functioning again, at a reduced capacity. The railway line from Corma to Maldosa is also open, although in need of considerable maintenance. The port at Madlosa continued to function during the conflict. There are a few other factories in the region, primarily in Maldosa.

The arrival of Tatsi IDPs in Maldosa, a predominantly Falin town, caused some tensions as there were fears that they would under-cut wages of the unionized workers, which are higher than for those other workers. The Tatsis live in the poorest part of Maldosa and suffer from high rates of poverty and unemployment. The Copper Miners’ Union is particularly strong and in the past has organizing protest against the government – which owns the Copper Mines.

Last year, negotiations for the year’s pay-round broke down, with the government claiming it could not afford the Union’s demands, and the Union responded by calling for a general strike in the region. This was particularly effective, as the Union has strong links with the railway workers and dockers’ unions in Maldosa – all of which are aligned with the CCP. The government responded by sending units of CDF to reinforce the CNP in Maldosa. It also prepared contingency plans to hire non-union workers to keep the mines, railway and port open. Foreign earnings from its copper exports are vital to financing other government expenditure.