Below is the newest edition of the Region One Climate Change Science Update. FWS employees can also find it and past issueson the Climate Change Sharepoint site.
Pacific Region Climate Change Science and Learning Opportunities Digest
January, 2014 Issue
A monthly e-newsletter aimed at helping you stay connected to climate change sciencethat is relevant and integral to our conservation work. Do you have a new published article you would like to share? Pleasesend it our way. And many thanks to those who have provided material for this edition!
David Patte
Climate Change Coordinator (Senior Advisor on Ecosystem Change)
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Region, Portland, Oregon
(503) 231-6210
Quick Links (Abstracts and Weblinks are Below)
Learning Opportunities- Upcoming Webinars and Meetings
NASA iPad App shows Earth changing before your eyes
Implementing the President’s Climate Action Plan
British Columbia Forests in a Changing Climate
Climate Trends and Projections Available at County Scale
Tribal and Indigenous People
Tribal Climate Change Profiles
PNW Tribal Climate Change Network
Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response
Effects of climate change on Kincaid’s lupine—Report to the Oregon Dept. of Fish and Wildlife
Savvy bar-tailed godwit equipped for climate challenge
Climate Change, Marine Environments, and the U.S. Endangered Species Act
Choosing Using ClimateChange Scenarios for Ecological Impact Assmnts. Conservation Decisions
Floodplain Rehabilitation as a Hedge against Hydroclimatic Uncertainty in a Migration Corridor of Threatened Steelhead
Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change into Extinction Risk Assessments for 82 Coral Species
Interactive Effects of Water Diversion and Climate Change for Juvenile Chinook Salmon in the Lemhi River Basin (Idaho)
Estimating Effects of Tidal Power Projects and Climate Change on Threatened and Endangered Marine Species and Their Food Web
Combined Effects of Climate Change and Bank Stabilization on Shallow Water Habitats of Chinook Salmon
Structuring Decisions for Managing Threatened and Endangered Species in a Changing Climate
Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species
Dietary plasticity in pikas as a strategy for atypical resource landscapes
Sea Star Wasting Syndrome on West Coast
The effects of elevated water temperature on native juvenile mussels: implications for climate change
NWF Releases Report on Impacts of Climate Change on Big Game
Forests and Climate Change (several articles)
Aquatic Resources and Ecosystems/Water Resources/Hydrology
Climate-Aquatics Blog #51: Part 10, Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Extinction; #51: Part 9, Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Evolutionary responses
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/Ocean Acidification/Sea Level Rise
National assessment of shoreline change—Historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast
Multidecadal regional sea level shifts in the Pacific over 1958–2008
Coastal Resilience Network Releases New Suite of Interactive Tools
Related coral species differ in how they survive climate change effects
Deep-sea corals record dramatic long-term shift in Pacific Ocean ecosystem
Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise
Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise
The changing carbon cycle of the coastal ocean
Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change
Coral Reef Resilience
Climate Change Journal Articles/Publications/News
Could weakening winds threaten Pacific Northwest's mountain water supply?
Solution to Cloud Riddle Reveals Hotter Future: Global Temps. to Rise at Least 4 Degrees C by 2100
LCC National Council Selections Announced
Responding to Climate Scenarios- New Handbook from NPS
Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Innovative Pilot in Canada leads the way
A new material for solar panels could make them cheaper, more efficient
Restore America’s Estuaries Submits First Greenhouse Gas Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration to Verified Carbon Standard
Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature
Climate and Weather Reports and Services (Multiple Entries)
DOI Climate Science Update
List Servers and FWS Tools (Multiple Entries)
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Learning Opportunities- Upcoming Webinars and Meetings
Jan 9, 12:30-1:30pm (Pacific Time) Socioeconomic Monitoring of US Coral Reef Jurisdictions. OneNOAA Webinar information: click here
Jan 14, 12:00-1:00pm (Pacific Time), The Pacific Flyway Shorebird Survey, How do changes in habitat management and climate effect shorebird populations at local, regional and hemispheric scales? The Pacific Flyway Shorebird Survey project, let by Matt Reiter of Point Blue Conservation Science, seeks to answer this question.Click here for more information on this CA LCC webinar. To join this webinar: Click here at the scheduled time; If a password is required, enter the meeting password: calcc
Call in number: 866-737-4154; passcode: 2872670
Jan 15, 9-10am (Pacific Time), Science Communications: Why Being a Scientist Isn’t Enough.OneNOAA Webinar information: click here
Jan 21, 2:00-3:00pm (Pacific Time) Climate Change Effects on Pacific Northwest Ecosystems
Presenter: Maureen Ryan, North Pacific LCC webinar.Learn about how climate change may affect wetlands you care about.This project developed innovative hybrid approaches for simulating past and futuremontane wetland behavior. These tools will allow hindcasting of over 90+ years of wetland behavior and projections of impacts of warming and precipitation change in the 21st century. The project is ongoing and will support biological assessments for amphibians and at-risk species in the mountain environment. Meeting Link |Call-in1-866-628-1318
Jan 22, 9-10am (Pacific Time) NOAA Ocean Acification Program update. OneNOAA Webinar information: click here
Jan 22, 11am-12pm (Pacific time) Environmental DNA – A new tool for monitoring imperiled species, Matthew B. Laramie, USGS. eDNA analysis, a genetic method that relies on the collection and analysis of exogenous DNA released by a species into the environment, offers a new way to determine the distribution of aquatic species. Great Northern LCC Webinar information: click here
Jan 28, 10-11am (Pacific Time): The Missing Mountain Water: Slower Westerlies Decrease Orographic Enhancement in the Pacific Northwest, Charlie Luce, U.S. Forest Service Research and Development, C3 Webinar, Conference call line: 877 952-8012 Passcode: 520083# WebEx link/login Recording: check out the C3 YouTube site a few days after the presentation:
Jan 30, 9-10am (Pacific Time) An Undercurrent of Change in the Pacific: Implications for Tropical Marine Ecosystems.OneNOAA Webinar information: click here
Jan-March, 2014, “Decision Analysis for Climate Change” NCTC class explores climate change in the context of decision analysis. This 8-week online course starts the week of January 20th, 2014 and continues through March 12, 2014 and highlights principles from Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (2009) National Research Council Report.During this time, you will work in a team on actual decision problems building expertise in climate change impacts and decision analysis. Participants will also utilize videos that show techniques in structured decision making, adaptive management, climate change.To register for this course, go to DOI Learn at
Feb-June, Climate Academy: This 5 month online course is designed to cover the fundamentals of climate science, provide tools and resources for climate adaptation, and increase climate literacy and communication.Click here for more information. Read the 2-page article about this online course in the Winter issue of The Wildlife Professional
Feb–May, Communicating Climate Change, Earth to SkyMidAtlantic (NASA/NPS/FWS sponsored). This class for interpreters/informal educators, will feature a blended learning style (partially conducted via a variety of distance learning mechanisms, and partially in person). The course provides an overview of climate change science and then drills down to specifics for the Mid-Atlantic region. The course is a pilot, so enrollment is limited to 20 people. While the detailed subject matter will address the Mid-Atlantic region, participants from other areas are welcome also. The course will have many of the hallmarks of past week-long face-to-face courses which have been held at NCTC, including face time with NASA scientists, a tour of a NASA facility, and some facets of interpretive techniques and analysis of audience. All participants will develop an action plan for using course content in their work within a year. Course announcement and application forms available at
April 22-24, rescheduled Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment class in Jackson, WY.This course is designed to guide conservation and resource management practitioners in two essential elements in the design of climate adaptation plans: (1) identifying which species or habitats are likely to be most strongly affected by projected changes; and (2) understanding why these resources are likely to be vulnerable. Vulnerability Assessments are a critical tool in undertaking any climate change planning or implementation. We will use regionally specific examples tailored to participants.Learn more and register here.
NOAA Hosts Monthly Webinar Series on Climate Information for Managing Risks in Water Resources
Working with collaborators such as the U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System, Water Research Foundation, Water Environment Federation, Water Environment Research Foundation, and American Water Works Association, the Sectoral Applications Research Program in NOAA's Climate Program Office is hosting a series of webinars the third Thursday of every month. For a listing of webinars, visitthis site.
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Click the image to find the app…
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Implementing the President’s Climate Action Plan
December 19, 2013, the Congressional Bicameral Task Force on Climate Change issued a 21-page white paper: "Implementing the President's Climate Action Plan: US Department of the Interior. Actions the Department of the Interior Should Take to Address Climate Change."Of the seven sections in the white paper, two put particularly high emphasis on the USFWS:
- "Advance Government-wide Adaptation Planning" (pp. 2, 13-15) The focus is on theNational Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy and the leading role the Service needs to play in its implementation.
- "Protect Habitat for Endangered and Threatened Species"(pp. 2, 15-17) The focus is onclimate change in relation to recovery plans, section 7 consultation, the section 9 "take" prohibition, and "assisted migration" of species. (A side note:I wish we'd had an opportunity to review and work with them on the entire section; it looks like they relied in part on a 2008 paper (by J. B. Ruhl, a college law professor) that I think isout of date andsomewhat off the mark on some key points related to the Endangered Species Act and climate change).
Also, the final section, "Encourage Timely Release of Related Climate Measures" (pp. 3, 19-20) calls for DOI agencies to set "aggressive timelines for proposed changes to policies and regulations, especially those that govern preservation of open spaces, habitat connectivity, and ecosystem integrity in the face of climate change."
A copy of the Congressional report is attached and it is available online here.
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British Columbia Forests in a Changing Climate
TheClimate Change Vulnerability Assessmentfor British Columbia's Managed Forests was recently completed. The assessment, supportingthe Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural ResourceOperations (FLRNO) and the Ministry of Environment (MoE), examinedtheimpacts, exposure and sensitivity of ecosystems andecological processes to a changing climate.
A number of regional case studies were conducted to outline climate change, vulnerability and potential adaptation actions to showcase vulnerabilities across BC. FLRNO and MoE are considering recommendations and the Forest Stewardship Action Plan for Climate ChangeAdaptation and other related initiatives have begun addressing many of the recommended strategies and actions.
A summary of the report can be found here, and the full report can be read here
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Climate Trends and Projections Available at County Scale
For the first time, maps and summaries of historical and projected temperature and precipitation changes for the 21st century for the continental U.S. are accessible at a county-by-county level on a website < developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with the College of Earth, Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University.
The maps and summaries are based on NASA downscaling of the 33 climate models used in the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project and the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report. The resulting NASA dataset is on an 800-meter grid with national coverage.
The USGS leveraged this massive dataset and distilled the information into easily understood maps, 3-page summaries and spreadsheet compatible data files for each state and county in the United States.A similar implementation for the USGS nested hydrologic units will be available in the next month.To learn more, please view the complete USGS release here <
The maps and summaries are available here <
Learn more about NCCWSC at and the CSCs at
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Tribal
Tribal Climate Change Profiles: Tribes across the United States are leading the way with innovative efforts to address climate change through adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Tribal Climate Change Profiles are intended to be a pathway to increasing knowledge among tribal and non-tribal organizations interested in learning about climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. Thisinformation is provided by the Tribal Climate Change Project, a collaborative project between the University of Oregon and the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station.
PNW Tribal Climate Change Network: Established in 2009, the Network fosters communication between tribes, agencies, and other entities about climate change policies, programs, and research needs pertaining to tribes and climate change. The Network meets via conference call on the fourth Wednesday of each month. The Network provides regular input into ongoing research, resource development and general efforts of the Tribal Climate Change Project. Participants in the Network have cited a critical need for coordination and collaboration between agencies and organizations to meet the needs tribes have in accessing climate change resources and information. To join the Network email list, email Kathy Lynn at .
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Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response-- Journal Articles & Other Publications
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 Sharepoint CC Species/Ecosystems Response Library]
Effects of climate change on Kincaid’s lupine—Report to the Oregon Dept. of Fish and Wildlife (pdf). Kincaid’s lupine (Lupinus oreganus), a rare(ESA listed) legume found in prairies and oak savannas has been relegated to small, isolated patches of habitat. The historic habitat of L. oreganus may continue to become more inhospitable given that climate models predict temperature increases and decreased precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. Researchers used an experimental common garden to test for interactions between genotype and microclimate to identify management considerations which may be necessary for long-term adaptation to climate change. Treatments included ambient (no treatment) and experimental manipulations of the microclimate to simulate cooler (shading plots) and hotter (warming plots) temperatures. After one year of growth, results suggest: (1) Seed source was found to significantly affect height of Kincaid’s lupine in the common garden, (2) Both seed source and treatment (ambient, warming, shading) were found to affect number of leaves of Kincaid’s lupine, though the interaction of these two factors was not significant. Though some seed sources did show differences in number of leaves by treatment, these effects were not consistent across all sources. (3) Survivorship of Kincaid’s lupine was dependent upon seed source, but not by treatment. (4) Reproductive effort was highly variable between seed source at the time of monitoring. (5) observed differences between seed sources in germination time were found, where species from the southern end of the range germinated far earlier than the rest. (Gray, E.C., S.T. Bois, and T.N. Kaye. 2013. Effects of climate change on Kincaid’s lupine. Institute for Applied Ecology, Corvallis, Oregon. viii + 33 pp.)
Savvy bar-tailed godwit equipped for climate challenge (article summarizes Dec. AGU presentation by David Douglas, USGS)
The Dec 2 edition of the journal Conservation Biology containsaSpecial Section:Incorporating Climate Change into Risk Analyses under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6, 1138–1146). Here is a link for the "table of contents" for the entire journal; scroll down it to see the entire list of papers in the special section:
Climate Change, Marine Environments, and the U.S. Endangered Species Act:This overview briefly describes climate change effects (ongoing and potential) on species and ecosystems, and reviews consideration of climate change effects in relation to various aspects of theESA (listing, critical habitat designation, recovery planning, interagency consultation, incidental take permits) with a focus on marine and estuarine systems.(Seney et al. Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6, 1138–1146)
Choosing and Using Climate-Change Scenarios for Ecological-Impact Assessments and Conservation Decisions:Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, guidelines are provided for choosingclimate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climateprojections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifyingprimary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriatesources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relativeimportance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision.(Snover et al. Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6, 1147–1157)