Binomial Probability Name
Student Activity Class
Open the TI-Nspire document TLC Binomial Probability.tns .
Objective: Use a simulation to find the experimental probability that a
65% free throw shooter will make exactly 3 of the next 5 attempts.
Step 1: Create 1 random number.
Enter the formula for random integers from 1 to 100 into the
Column A formula cell. =randint(1,100,1)
Step 2: Represent 5 free throw attempts.
Copy the formula from the Column A formula cell to the formula
cells in column B through E.
Step 3: How many did the shooter make out of the 5 shots?
Because the shooter makes 65% of his attempts, the numbers
1 through 65 represent a successful attempt.
Type =countif(a1:e1,?=66) in cell F1.
In the Column Name Cell, label as made.
Step 4: Represent 5 trials.
Change the formula cells to =randint(1,100,5). Copy and paste the formula in F1 to F2 through F5 by holding the shift key and using the down arrow.
Step 5: Complete the Objective:
Use a simulation to find the experimental probability that a 65%
free throw shooter will make exactly 3 of the next 5 attempts.
Type =countif(f1:f5,3) in cell F6
Step 6: Create 100 simulations.
Because only 5 simulations were done the answer of zero above is distorted. The more trials performed, the more reliable the estimate will be.
.
1) Questions based on 100 simulations:
a. Find the experimental probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make exactly 0 of the next 5 attempts.
b. Find the experimental probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make exactly 1 of the next 5 attempts.
c. Find the experimental probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make exactly 2 of the next 5 attempts.
d. Find the experimental probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make exactly 3 of the next 5 attempts.
e. Find the experimental probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make exactly 4 of the next 5 attempts.
f. Find the experimental probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make exactly 5 of the next 5 attempts.
g. Compare your answers to a. and f. Which problem produces a larger probability? Explain why this is.
h. Find the experimental probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make more than 3 of the next 5 attempts.
i. Find the experimental probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make less than 3 of the next 5 attempts.
j. Compare your answers to h. and i. Which problem produces a larger probability? Explain why this is.
Review Combinations
A combination is an arrangement of objects in which order does not matter (vs. a permutation where order does matters.
Read "n choose r"
nCr =
Find the value of each combination
a. 7C5
b. 5C3
c. 6C2
2) Now you can calculate the theoretical probably of the same problem above using the Binomial Probability formula. In a binomial experiment, the probability of r successes in n trials (0 ≤ r ≤ n) is
P(r)= nCr ∙ pr∙ qn-r, where p is the probability of success and q is the probability of failure.
a. What is the probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make exactly 3 of the next 5 attempts.
P(r)= nCr ∙ pr∙ qn-r, so P(3)=5C3 ∙ .653 ∙ .35(5-3) =
b. What is the probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make exactly 5 of the next 5 attempts.
P(r)=nCr ∙ pr qn-r , so P(5)=5C5 ∙ .655 ∙ .35(5-5) =
c. Find the probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make 3 or more of the next 5 attempts.
P(r 3) = P(3) + P(4) + P(5)=
d. Find the probability that a 65% free throw shooter will make less than 3 of the next 5 attempts.
P(r 3)= 1 – P(r 3)=
Use a simulation to find each experimental probability.
3) An energy drink game advertises a 25% chance of winning with each bottle cap. Find the experimental probability that a 6-pack will contain at least 3 winners. Use a List and Spreadsheet page to simulate 100
6-packs.
a. In your simulations, how many times are there at least 3 winning caps.
b. In your simulations, how many times is there exactly 1 winning cap.
4) Critical Thinking How would you design a simulation to find the probability that a baseball player with a .285 batting average will get a hit in 5 of his next 10 official at bats (don’t count walks or being hit by pitch)? Describe what changes would have to be made in this simulation compared to the first two you’ve done.
Use P(r)= nCr ∙ pr∙ qn-r to find each theoretical probability.
5) An energy drink game advertises a 25% chance of winning with each bottle cap. Find the probability that a 6-pack will contain the following amounts of winning caps. Round answers to 4 decimal places.
Number of winners / P(r)= nCr ∙ pr∙ qn-r / Probability0 / 6C0 ∙ .250∙ .75(6–0)
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total
a. How many winning caps is most likely to occur?
b. What is the probability of the most likely occurrence?
c. What is the most efficient way to answer the question, “What is the probability of getting at least one winner.”
d. Using the pattern in the table, write an equation that will produce the above table. Use the Entry Line on a Graph page and Table on the Nspire calculator to check your equation and table.
6) A baseball player with a .285 batting average wants to know the probability of getting 0, 1, 2, 3, … 10 hits in the next 10 at bats.
What equation can be typed into the Entry Line on a Graph page to quickly fill in the following table?
Complete the table using an Nspire calculator. Round answers to 4 decimal places.
Number of hits / P(r)=nCr ∙ pr ∙ qn-r / Probability0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Total
a. How many hits is most likely to occur?
b. What is the probability of the most likely occurrence?
c. Explain why this is the most likely occurrence.
Extension: Create graphs on the Nspire calculator. See directions on page 5.2
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