1 Intelligent Well Technology: Status and Opportunities for Developing Marginal Reserves SPE

OILrefining planning under price and demand uncertaintIES: case of Algeria

Aberrezak BENYOUCEF, Algerian Petroleum Institute , Boumerdès Algeria, Phone +213 661775093,

Overview

This paper aims to analyze the Algerian refining industry development in the presence of uncertainties, both on domestic products demand and the international markets, with a linear dynamic model. Algeria refining industry is asimple type, or hydroskimming, which is designed to treat a sweet light crude oil. Currently, this industry has to be adapted to meet demand progress both in terms of volume, and also in terms of specifications, in a general context marked by a strong volatility of the oil markets.

Generally, refining operations planning models are based on deterministic linear programming. However, because of the volatility of the raw materials prices, demand fluctuation, and other conditions for the market, many parameters should be considered as uncertain. In our study, we propose a dynamic long-term linear model to analyze the development of the Algerian refining sector by 2030. We treat particular uncertainties on demand and prices of oil and petroleum products. Considering multiple uncertainties on demand and oil price, the model provides production levels, the rate units running and foreign trade of products by the year 2030. This model assesses the impact of the prices volatility on the development of this industry.

The paper is organised as follows: After the introduction and the overview about the methodology the second section gives a brief overview about the refining modeling with linear dynamic prorramming . The third section deals with the model with uncertainties in which we focus on the particularities of a the oil producer and exporter countruy. In section four, we present the main data used in the model. In the final section , before the conclusion, the main results will be analysed.

Methods

Linear dynamic and stochastic programming

Results

Capacity expansion of the different units : distillation, transformation and conversion of the Algerian refining industry from 2005 to 2030. Production levels of all petroleum products and their imports and exports. Specifications of oil products. The necessary Amount of the investments to develop refining sector. The oil export levels by period.

Conclusions

Algeria's refining industry should be enforced with large investment to meet domestic oil products demand progression and international specifications. The first and emergent investment concerns the conversion units to convert fuel oil to light products such as diesel oil that have been being importing since 2008. The trade-off between the exportation of crude oil and the oil products, by the developing of the refining industry, depends on the rate between product exporting prices and the oil prices. We have treated this one with the efficiency frontier via Markowitz model applied toour case

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