OIL DISADS – INTERNALS & IMPACT SCENARIOS

Consortium 2004

ALGERIA

1NC Shell1-2

Uniq: oil production up3

Uniq: econ improving4

I/L: oil key to econ5

I/L: key supplier to US6

Impax: genocide7

Impax: terrorism8-11

Impax: basing rights12

AFF – general13-14

INDONESIA

1NC Shell15-16

Uniq: econ improving17-18

Uniq: oil key to econ19

I/L: key supplier to US20

I/L: high risk of collapse21

Impax: terrorism22

Impax: Indo instab=regional23-25

Impax: global econ26

Impax: civil war27-28

Impax: SLOCs29-30

Impax: prolif31

AFF – general32-33

IRAN

Iran wants stable oil prices34

Oil key to econ35

Oil key to Iran's status36

AFF – general37

KUWAIT

AFF – general38

MEXICO

1NC Shell39-40

Uniq: econ is improving41-43

Uniq: oil production up44

Uniq: oil revenue up45

Link: US imports key46

Link: low oil prices47

Link: US imports key48

I/L: oil key to econ49-51

I/L: key supplier to US52-57

Impax: civil war58

Impax: global econ59-60

Impax: US econ61-62

Impax: regional economies63

Impax: trade64

Impax: US-Mex relations65

Impax: War on Terror66-69

Impax: US oil dependence70-71

Impax: Military readiness72

AT: diversification73

AT: no oil reserves74

AFF – general75-79

AFF – AT: war on terror80

NIGERIA

1NC Shell81-82

Uniq: oil production up83

Uniq: econ improving84

I/L: oil key to econ85-86

I/L: key supplier to US87-88

Impax: political instability89

Impax: civil war90

Impax: regional instability91-93

Impax: prolif94-96

Impax: genocide97-100

Impax: sucession/refugees101

AT: no oil reserves102

AT: human rts turns103

AT: terrorism turn104

AT: N/U conflict now105

AFF – general106-112

NORWAY

1NC Shell113-115

Uniq: oil production up116

Uniq: econ improving117

I/L: key supplier to US118

I/L: oil key to econ119-120

I/L: oil key to diplomacy121-125

I/L: Sri Lankan peace126

AFF – general127-128

AFF: AT Sri Lanka impact129

OPEC

1NC Shell130-131

Uniq: cohesion high132

U: non-Opec nations weak133

Uniq: demand high now134

Link: anti-oil policies135

I/L: closely watches prices136

I/L: will flood the market137

I/L: flooding mkt=price wars138

I/L: price wars crush econ139-140

I/L: Opec key supplier to US141

I/L: oil price key to econ142

I/L: Saudi=OPEC leader143

Impax: Saudi Arabia144-145

Impax: genocide146

AT: Opec wants stable price147

AFF – general148-156

RUSSIA

1NC Shell157-158

Uniq: oil exports up159-160

Uniq: econ improving161-162

I/L: sensitive to price flux163

I/L: oil key to econ164-167

I/L: low price hurts econ168-169

I/L: oil key to econ recover170-176

I/L: key supplier to US177

I/L: key supplier to globe178

(RUSSIA, CON'T)

I/L: poor econ=instability179

I/L: low price=civil war180

Impax: nuclear war181-183

Impax: genocide184

AT: dependency turns185

AT: diversified econ186

AT: Yuko's187

AT: no reserves188

AFF – general189-193

AFF – Saudi/OPEC turn194

AFF – link turn195

SAUDI ARABIA

1NC Shell196-197

Uniq: oil demand up198

I/L: high prices key to econ199

I/L: low prices=instability200-202

I/L: oil key to econ203

I/L: Saudis perceive prices204

I/L: price flux hurts econ205

I/L: key supplier to US206

I/L: key to world oil market207-209

I/L: high price=stability210

I/L: econ key to stability211-212

Impax: depression213-216

Impax: US power projection217

Impax: genocide218

Impax: climate control219

Impax: prolif220-222

Impax: US-Saudi relations223-236

AT: diversified econ237

AT: Saudi can't prolif238

AFF – general239-242

AFF: AT US troops impact243-244

AFF: AT US relations impact245

AFF: AT basing rts impact246-248

AFF: AT coup impact249

AFF: AT terrorism impact250

GENERAL NEG

AT: Dependency Turns

AT: price shocks/spikes251-254

AT: supply shocks255-263

AT: Asian econ turns264

AT: oil "as a weapon"265

General 266

Dependency good267-272

AT: China273

Backstopping Answers274

AT: Israel dependency turn275

GENERAL AFF

Dependency Turns276-306

General Aff stuff307-309

High oil prices bad310

MORE MISC. NEG311-322