Non-State Actor: al-Qaeda
Group Classification: Independent
Al-Qaeda is a transnational jihadist organization, whose global headquarters is based in northwestern Pakistan but it has spawned a global movement, which allows it operational reach into both the Middle East as well as the West. It was founded in the early to mid 1990s in response to the stationing of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia in the lead up the first Gulf War in 1991. The global network relies on wealthy donors in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states for its source of funding and relies on a considerable pool of operatives to execute its strikes. While it still maintains a great deal of influence in Afghanistan through its support for the Taliban, Iraq has emerged as its main arena of activity, in the aftermath of the U.S. toppling of the Saddam regime and the rise of Iran and the Shia.
Main constituency: Al-Qaeda derives it support from radical and extremist Islamist forces (primarily Wahhabi-leaning) all over the world.Despite its failure to expand its influence among the Muslims masses, it continues to exploit the U.S.-Jihadist war and Islamic-western tensions to not just sustain itself in the face of the onslaught from the U.S.-led global war against radical Islamism, but also to enhance its support base. Though more popular among rural, conservative, and tribal peoples in the region, its rank n file mostly consists of urban, secular educated professional operatives.
Group objectives:Al-Qaeda’s objective is to topple Muslim governments in the Middle East and South Asia and replace them with a transnational Islamist state (caliphate or an emirate). It seeks to achieve this by destabilizing existing regimes by provoking U.S. military action against Muslim countries through attacks the United States and its allies. More recently it has moved to the stage of political consolidation of its military gains, most noticeably in Iraq where it is trying to assume the leadership of the Sunnis by aligning with like minded insurgent groups and tribal leaders. Ultimately it hopes that by increasing hostilities between Washington and Muslim states and showing that it can force U.S. forces from Iraqthe way the Islamist insurgents drove out the Soviet army from Afghanistan in 1989, it will be able to weaken incumbent regimes and establish its preferred polity.
Group Targets: United States, Western countries, Israel, U.S./western businesses, Muslim regimes, economic (particularly energy related) targets,
Location:Al-Qaeda’s apex leadership is based in northwestern Pakistan, but the group has nodes throughout the Middle East, South/Central/Southeast Asia, Europe, and even in North America.
Primary source of funding: Wealthy Muslim individuals and groups, front organizations/businesses, illegal commerce.
Operational History: While the Sept 11 attacks represent the zenith of al-Qaeda’s operational history, it had staged attacks against U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia, Yemen and U.S. embassies in East Africaprior to that. Following its dispersal from its original global headquarters in Afghanistan after the U.S. invasion of the country in Oct 2001, it has devolved into a movement with branches, affiliated groups and independent franchises across several continents, which continue to stage attacks. While there has been no attack in the United States since Sept 11, 2001, Europe has seen two attacks – train bombings in Madrid in March 2004 and London in July 2005. Furthermore, several plots to attack continue to be foiled in Europe and North America. In the Middle East, there are almost daily attacks in Iraq as well s periodic ones in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, etc.
Potential usage of WMD:
Al-Qaeda has a known interest in acquiring weapons of mass destruction. While nuclear weapons remain beyond its capabilities, it has invested in acquiring chemical weapons such as poisonous gas during its time in Afghanistan. There is video footage of al-Qaeda operatives experimenting with such lethal compounds on dogs in makeshift labs as well as providing lessons to its cadre in class-room settings. As regards radiological and biological weapons, al-Qaeda can potentially acquire them.
Assuming that the jihadist organization had the ability to use WMDS, it would use them if it was faced with a threat of annihilation of its leadership or other major operational assets. More importantly, it would also use them against U.S./western military and civilian targets to trigger a backlash against the Muslim world, which would serve its strategic objective. Al-Qaeda’s decision to employ such weapons would be based on a consideration of two main factors:
1)Its calculus with regards to the response from the United States in terms of a retaliatory strike.
2)The extent of an unfavorable response from within the Muslim world to such an attack.