Trends in Online Publishing
New Pricing Models for 2003 as Online Dominates Print
John Ben DeVette
Asia General Manager & Asst. Vice President
EBSCO Information Services
1. “It has taken 10 years, but e-journals have finally surpassed print in importance. And there is evidence that many librarians are ready to give up paper for good.” Quote from article by Lee Van Orsdel and Kathleen Born, “Periodicals Price Survey 2002”, LIBRARY JOURNAL 4/15/02.
2. Before this year: Online always added value, but there was no trust in the online archival solutions being recommended..
3. Actually, this trend is being pushed by various consortia who are demanding that online and print contracts be negotiated separately.
4. Libraries are ready to make the switch to online with or without an archiving solution. This will cause major changes in the academic publishing industry.
5. The growth of online journals has been impressive.
· In 1994, there were less than 75 peer-reviewed electronic journals.
· In 1997, some of the largest STM (Science, Technology, & Medicine) publishers still had no journals online.
· In 1998, about 30% of the titles in Science Citation Index (SCI) were available online.
· In 2002,
- the percentage of online journals in ISI 3 most important indexes are: 75% of Science Citations Index titles have online
- 63% of Social Sciences Citation Index titles have online.
- 34% of Arts & Humanities Citation Index have online.
6. Most of the large scientific publishers have their primary scholarly titles online for 2002.
7. There are more than 11,000+ online journals available now.
8. With regard to pricing, most publishers have changed strategies more than once since 1997. Some publishers have as many as 4 different pricing models. The chaotic nature negotiations and pricing models that have characterized the market since 1997, have made life very difficult for libraries and vendors.
9. The majority of major publishers (academic / for profit) still offer online 'free' with print for 2002. The list includes:
· Cambridge University Press
· Elsevier
· Emerald
· Oxford
· Routledge
· Sage
· Springer Verlag
· Taylor & Francis.
10. STM publishers who charge extra include:
· Wiley
· Kluwer
· Dekker
· Nature
· Plenum
· S. Karger.
11. Blackwell Science charges extra, but the other Blackwell imprints do not!
12. University presses are split. Duke, Indiana, Johns Hopkins, and Penn State, all
participants in Project MUSE, charge extra for online; but MIT, Chicago, and California do not.
13. Society presses are also split, but the majority appear to charge for online
with print.
14. As I said earlier, life has been difficult for all of us over the past 5 years … but it is going to get worse!
15. This year we have seen more publishers use a "flip" model for pricing. Academic Press introduced the concept with its DDP (Deeply Discounted Price) with its first e-journal package back in mid-90’s. The definition of DDP is where the subscription is to the online edition, but the print is available separately for 25% of the retail price (75% off).
16. The flip pricing issue grew in popularity last year when OhioLINK
negotiated new deals for online content with major publishers of e-journals.
The deal included DDP options, or rights for Ohio libraries to purchase print at deeply discounted prices. Library consortia in California and Canada quickly
followed Ohio’s example.
17. Discounts on print ranged from 60% to 90%, which meant that publishers agreed to supply print with online for an added charge of 10% to 40% of the list price of each title.
18. Association of Subscription Agents (ASA) says: All of the Big Five STM publishers--Academic, Elsevier, Kluwer, Springer, and Wiley--offer deep discount prices for print.
19. As consortia become more common, license agreements will become the norm. “With e-journals there must be differential pricing based on the size of the organization and amount of use.” Derk Haank, Elsevier Chairman, at UKSerials Group meeting April 2002. A journal’s retail price will become a relative term, simply a useful starting point for negotiations.
20. More publishers are willing to negotiate a DDP % with an individualconsortium, Prices will not be standard, but vary from consortium to consortium.
21. Elsevier offers several scenarios:
- 1. Web Editions access (browse-only access to a 12-month revolving backfile) free with most print subscriptions, vs.
- 2. ScienceDirect which includes back issues and searching,
- 3. E-choice a customized list of e-journals from the overall Elsevier & Academic Press / IDEAL database. Includes 4 year backfile for former print owners.
22. Kluwer will offer all customers
- 1. Current year access free with print.
- 2. Paid online access will includes all available back issues.
23. Blackwell Publishing has joined Blackwell Science, Blackwell Publishers and Munksgaard and now offers "standard" and "premium" access.
- 1. Standard - print plus basic online access: free online access to issues from the current and previous year (i.e. 2003 and 2002). But no access to remote users and all access rights would cease if the print subscription were cancelled (no perpetual access).
- 2. Premium - print plus premium online access (110% of print price). Premium online access will include full access to the current year and to all available back issues. The license will include access for remote users, perpetual access for as long as Blackwell Publishing publishes the title.
24. The archival problem. What happens when perpetual only means 4 years? Is a 4-yr backfile enough? What about Blackwell’s guarantee of perpetual access for as long as Blackwell publishes the title? What will happen if Tomson buys Blackwell? Will they support Blackwell’s earlier promise, or transfer all customers to their own peculiar archival solution?
25. Average price increase across the board for 2003 is 9%. Please see the 3 charts for more detailed information.
Actual Rates of Publisher Price Increases for 2002.
ARTS & HUMANITIES CITATION INDEX
U.S. / 776 / $115.02 / $124.97 / 8.7% / $135.67 / 8.6% / $147.65 / 8.8% / $159.69 / 8.2% / 38.8%
NON-U.S. / 776 / 217.79 / 235.90 / 8.3% / 250.09 / 6.0% / 262.09 / 4.8% / 282.52 / 7.8% / 29.7%
SOCIAL SCIENCES CITATION INDEX
U.S. / 1,329 / 265.51 / 293.62 / 10.6% / 323.50 / 10.2% / 358.51 / 10.8% / 388.33 / 8.3% / 46.3%
NON-U.S. / 1,297 / 587.92 / 637.67 / 8.5% / 692.61 / 8.6% / 741.08 / 7.0% / 805.40 / 8.7% / 37.0%
SCIENCE CITATION INDEX
U.S. / 1,198 / 593.39 / 661.28 / 11.4% / 725.59 / 9.7% / 793.50 / 9.4% / 859.27 / 8.3% / 44.8%
NON-U.S. / 1,755 / 1,005.31 / 1,073.74 / 6.8% / 1,154.85 / 7.6% / 1,225.20 / 6.1% / 1,327.29 / 8.3% / 32.0%
Estimate Rates of Publisher Price Increases for 2002.
TABLE 6: 2003 COST PROJECTIONS BY BROAD SUBJECT Citation Index / No. of Titles / % of List / 2002 Cost / % of Cost / Projected % of Increase / Projected 2003 Cost / % of Cost / Projected Overall % Increase /ARTS AND HUMANITIES CITATION INDEX
U.S. / 773 / 49.8 / $123,443 / 35.9 / 8.5 / $133,936 / 36.1 / 7.9
NON-U.S. / 780 / 50.2 / 220,362 / 64.1 / 7.5 / 236,889 / 63.9 / 7.9
SOCIAL SCIENCES CITATION INDEX
U.S. / 1,328 / 50.3 / 515,697 / 32.8 / 9.0 / 562,110 / 32.8 / 9.0
NON-U.S. / 1,312 / 49.7 / 1,056,690 / 67.2 / 9.0 / 1,151,792 / 67.2 / 9.0
SCIENCE CITATION INDEX
U.S. / 1,206 / 40.2 / 1,036,284 / 30.3 / 8.5 / 1,124,368 / 30.3 / 8.5
NON-U.S. / 1,793 / 59.8 / 2,379,825 / 69.7 / 8.5 / 2,582,110 / 69.7 / 8.5
PROJECTED OVERALL INCREASE FOR ALL ISI TITLES: 8.6%
Source: Periodicals Price Survey 2002, LIBRARY JOURNAL, March 15, 2002
Large Publisher Price Increases for 2003
(as of October 4, 2002)
PUBLISHER NAME / RECEIVED / COMPLETED / PERCENTAGE INCREASEElsevier Science BV / 9-6-02 / 10-07-02 / Euro 7%/USD 9%
Elsevier Science LTD / 9-6-02 / 10-07-02 / Euro 8%/USD 9%
Lippincott Williams & Wilkins / 07-10-02 (waiting on agency remit price list)
08-02-02 received correct price list / As of 10-7-02 completed all titles they have provided rates for, however still need additional rates / 9%
Springer Verlag Germany / 9-5-02 / In Process / Euro Increase 9%/USD 6%
Elsevier Science Inc. – NY / 9-6-02 / 10-07-02 / Euro Rate 8%/USD 8%
John Wiley & Sons Inc. / August 16th / 8-24-02 / 11% Increase
American Chemical Society / 7-16-02 / 9-4-02 / 9%
Wiley-Liss / August 16th / August 24th / 7%
American Inst. Of Physics / 07-16-02 / As of 10-07 all titles coded except 10. / 7%
Kluwer Academic Publishers / 08-08-02 / 9-27 / Dollar – 7%
Euro – 8%
Blackwell Science LTD / August 23rd / 9-9-02 / Sterling 10%/Dollar 19%
John Wiley & Sons LTD / August 16th / August 24th / 8%
Taylor & Francis LTD / 08-08-02 (In Online section for review) / As of 8-24-02 completed all titles sent to TID/need rates for addl titles / Dollar – 9%
Sterling – 8%
Source: EBSCO Information Services, Title Information Department
16-1