STUDY GUIDE
Kazakhstan Crisis
National Security Council (NSC)
Table of Contents
1. Introduction to the Study Guide
2. Background
2.1. Kazakhstan
2.2. History of Kazakhstan
2.2.1. The Russian Empire Takes Over
2.2.2. Under Soviet Rule
2.2.3. The Collapse of the Soviet Union, and Independence
2.3. The Sino-Soviet Split: Understanding China-Russia relations
2.3.1. Stalin and Mao
2.3.2. “The Split”
2.3.3. Nuclear Ideology
2.3.4. The Sino-Soviet War
2.3.5. 1980-Today
3. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Relations
3.1. Kazakhstan and Russia
3.2. Kazakhstan and China
4. Regional Nuclear Powers
5. National Security Council (NSC)
6. Crisis 2013
7. Research questions
1. Introduction to the Study Guide
Welcome to the crisis simulation at Global Classrooms London’s summer conference! Crisis simulations run a bit differently to a regular committee simulation, and there is a strong emphasis on preparation. Moving at a breakneck pace, thinking on your feet and application of research will be your key skills, but you will also get a chance to flex your diplomatic muscles too. If you respond quickly, stay informed, and make or break deals at the right time, your country may live to fight another day!
A brief note on this Study guide to begin with. Though you are provided here with a background of the topic, you are strongly encouraged to do your own research alongside. There are additional questions at the end to help direct your study.
2. Background
“Two nuclear powers are mobilized. The Dragon[China] and the Bear[Russia] have troops massed on both borders of Kazakhstan. We are standing on the edge of the abyss.” — K. Harper, Central Asian analyst.
2.1. Kazakhstan
The largest landlocked country in the world, Kazakhstan is located in Central Asia, bordering Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. It is an ethnically diverse country with 131 different ethnicities and is mostly tolerant to all religions, with Islam (70.2%), Christianity (26.3%), Buddhism (0.09%), andJudaism (0.03%) being the most common of these.
Kazakhstan’s terrain is as varied as its people, with snow-capped mountains to the east, desert in the south, and canyons, forests and vast grasslands. Beneath its scenic surface lies a wealth of natural resources. Kazakhstan is one of the global top 10 producers for oil and gas and has the second largest reserves of uranium, lead, and zinc in the world. It is estimated that there are 30 billion barrels of oil reserves, but the country only has 3 oil refineries. This means Kazakhstan must export oil for processing, which it does mainly to Russia.
Kazakhstan is ranked 19th in global literacy rates (UK: 23rd, China: 106th), and has a rapidly growing economy. President NursultanNazarbayev, the first and incumbent President of Kazakhstan has been in power since the country was founded in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union, and was re-elected in 2011 for another five year term.
2.2. History of Kazakhstan
2.2.1. The Russian Empire Takes Over
In the 19th century, the Russian Empire expanded into Central Asia and colonised many of the current Central Asian states, including modern day Kazakhstan. The Empire built military garrisons and instilled a system of administration on the Kazakh people, who were mainly tribal and relied on livestock for their livelihood. Russians came to settle the lands and assimilate the local inhabitants to their way of life. Strict Russian rule was strongly resisted, and the Kazakh national movement began in the late 19th century. As more and more foreign settlers arrived, competition for land and water led to serious uprisings by the Kazakhs. In 1916, the Kazakhs attacked the Russians leading to brutal massacres on both sides.
2.2.2. Under Soviet Rule
With the rise of the Soviet Union (USSR), the state became another autonomous republic in the 1920s, known as the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic (Kazakh SSR). Soviet oppression resulted in mass starvation in the country, with many deciding to leave their lands. The Soviets executed prominent Kazakh thinkers, writers, and politicians, and worked hard to suppress Kazakh identity by eradicating cultural practices and forcing everyone to speak Russian. In 1936, Kazakhstan became a Soviet republic and experienced a mass inflow of people from various parts of the Soviet Union, which stretched from Eastern Europe across Central Asia to China, and even some parts of South Asia. This is one of the reasons for the varied population in Kazakhstan today.
The events of World War II led to the Soviets increasing industrialisation and mineral extraction to support the war effort. A large investment was put into the agricultural sector of the Kazakh SSR which boosted major grain production, and with later modernisation, became a significant source of livelihood even in the modern era. Modification and investment in the land by the Soviets has had mixed effects:though traditional Kazakh lifestyles severely damaged, the country as a whole was brought into the modern era. By 1959, Kazakhs made up 30% of the population of the Kazakh SSR, and ethnic Russians accounted for 43%.
As part of the USSR, the Kazakh SSR was utilised for a number of programmes during the Cold War. Nuclear weapons were tested in the eastof the Kazakh SSR which had a catastrophic effect on the ecosystem which is still felt generations later. This was one of the reasons for the anti-Soviet sentiment in many parts of the Republic. The BaikonurCosmodromewas built in the southern desert of the Kazakh SSR in the late 1950s, and is still the world’s first and largest operational space launch facility. Many historic flights have launched from Baikonur, including the first manned mission to space (Yuri Gagarin, 1961) and the flight of the first woman in space (Valentina Tereshkova, 1963). Today it is the sole launch site for sending manned craft to the International Space Station.
2.2.3. The Collapse of the Soviet Union, and Independence
As tensions grew within Soviet society in the 1980s, there was a push for political and economic reform. Each Soviet Republic had a First Secretary to manage different parts of the Soviet Union, who reported back to Moscow. Dinmukhamed Konayev, an ethnic Kazakh, had been First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Kazakh SSR since the early 1960s and under his long reign, Kazakhs occupied prominent positions in the Soviet bureaucracy, economy, and educational institutions. Due to his political allegiance, Konayev was removed from office when Mikhail Gorbachev came to power as the leader of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Claiming charges of corruption, Konayev was replaced in 1986byGennady Kolbin, a Soviet politician who had never lived in the Kazakh SSR before. This provoked street riots by young ethnic Kazakhs in Almaty, the Kazakh SSRs largest city. Governmental troops suppressed the unrest, but several people were killed and many demonstrators were jailed. Konayev is thought to have helped organise the protests. Kolbin was soon replaced in 1989 by NursultanNazarbayev, a strong ethnic Kazakh who was widely supported.
Around this time, a number of Soviet Republics had begun legal moves towards potentially declaring independence. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1990, the Kazakh SSR was renamed the Republic of Kazakhstan and in 1991 became independent. It was the last former Soviet Republic to do so. Nazarbayev was elected as the first President of Kazakhstan, and has held the position for over two decades.
Today, the capital city has been moved from Almaty to Astana, and Kazakhstan has made significant progress towards developing a market economy. President Nazarbayev was re-elected in 2011 for another five year term, and has maintained strict control over the country’s politics.
2.3. The Sino-Soviet Split: Understanding China-Russiarelations
2.3.1. Stalin and Mao
The USSR and China were the largest communist nations in the world in the 1960s. Though the ideologies of the countries started out very alike, powerful leaders began to take the states in different directions from one another. Joseph Stalin of the USSR felt that China’s use of peasants as a basis for revolution was not a true communist reality while Mao Zedong was convinced Stalin wanted a weak and divided China to leave the USSR dominant in Asia. Stalin feared Mao as a rival for the leadership of the communist world.
The relations between China and the USSR fluctuated strongly. Stalin aided Mao in a number of China’s wars, but subsequently demanded payment for this aid afterwards, which soured relations. Mao had strong suspicions of Stalin, so when Stalin died in 1953, it seemed possible that relations between the countries would improve. However, as the years passed, the USSR adopted the doctrine of “peaceful coexistence” with the West, which China saw as ideological heresy. The USSR accused Mao of not understanding political reality and disapproved of his tendency towards fanaticism.
2.3.2. “The Split”
In 1958, Mao initiated his Great Leap Forward initiative with the aim of developing China’s agricultural and industrial sectors simultaneously, and to get rid of the need for Soviet aid. The main focus was on steel production, and all communities were provided with backyard furnaces where peasants attempted to produce steel from scrap metal. Occupied with this task, China’s harvest rotted in the fields and led to widespread famine. Even so, Mao continued to export grain as he did not want the rest of the world to know about the failure of his economic plan. Only in 1961, after one million people had died due to famine, did Mao stop exporting grain. The USSR openly criticised the failure of the plan, which personally enraged Mao. Relations were at a severe low point, and Mao became determined to strike back against the USSR by undermining it and backing any country that dissented from Moscow’s lead. China got its chance to do so later in 1961 when the USSR withdrew support from Albania, attacking the country’s “Stalinist” and backwards ways. China took this as an attack on their own system and pledged to replace Soviet money with Chinese backing and technical assistance. This conflict led to the final partition of diplomatic relations between the USSR and China.
2.3.3. Nuclear Ideology
A continuing source of dispute between the two nations was over nuclear weapons. After the USSR gainedthe technological advantage in the Space Race in 1957 with the successful launch of Sputnik, China saw this as a tool to undermine the USA. Mao did not fear a nuclear war, and considered it an unavoidable part of true communist revolution. However, the Soviets planned to use this apparent technical superiority to convince the USA to pursue “co-existence”. The USSR accused Mao of wanting the two nuclear superpowers (Russia and the USA) to destroy each other and leave China as a global power. Mao saw this as yet another sign that the USSR was abandoning its role as a revolutionary leader, and working with the West. He was also angered by the rejection of China’s request for nuclear technology, unless the USSR could control its defence policy. The development of its own nuclear weapons in 1964 was a huge achievement for China. It not only meant that the PRC would have to be taken seriously but also that it did not need Soviet support.
2.3.4. The Sino-Soviet War
Tensions between the USSR and China came to a head with the Sino-Soviet Border War. Predictably, the two powerful countries experienced violent border clashesin 1969 over land disputes. These disputes erupted into a proper war, and by August of that year, all-out war between the two communist states looked very likely, with the danger of the conflict turning nuclear. Both the USSR and China realigned their missiles to face one another, and fighting continued sporadically throughout the year. In the end there was no escalation to nuclear war. This was certainly the lowest point in Sino-Soviet relations.
2.3.5. 1980-Today
The 1980s saw a relaxation of tensions between the Soviet Union and China. With Mao’s death in 1976, the overthrow of key anti-Soviet political members, and the establishment of Deng Xiaoping as China’s new leader, animosity lessened. However, all moves towards improving relations came to nought with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which China saw as Soviet “imperial expansion”.
Relations finally re-established in 1989 with Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. Despite China receiving global condemnation on its decision to brutally crush pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square that year, fully diplomatic relations were restored. With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, China no longer had a competitor for leadership of the communist world. Since then, China and Russia have enjoyed significantly improved relations. Their long border has been fully demarcated and both Russia and China (along with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) are members of the Shanghai-Cooperation Organisation, the burgeoning regional forum. Today, President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping maintain good diplomatic ties.
3. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Relations
3.1. Kazakhstan and Russia
Kazakhstan’s historical ties with Russia make the two countries logical allies. Russia, being a military powerhouse in the region, is able to offer protection and aid to Kazakhstan, who in return has a wealth of natural resources.
Diplomatic relations with Russia have been difficult to manage alongside Kazakhstan’s other key international partner: the USA. President Nazarbayev has skilfully balanced relations with these two classically antagonistic countries by supplying oil to Russia at significantly subsidised prices, and providing anti-terrorist assistance to the USA in its global War on Terror.
At times, Kazakhstani-Russian relations have been strained due to the on-going dispute with Russia surrounding the Baikonurcosmodrome. Russia rents the facility which is in Kazakhstan for a fixed rate (a source of continuous argument), and there are strong environmental and health concerns for human, animal, and plant life along the flight paths of Russian rockets launched from the cosmodrome. In recent years, Kazakhstan has occasionally randomly restricted launches from Baikonur due to concerns over the launch debris fall-zone, which has angered Russia.
Kazakhstan and Russia in general maintain strong relations. Regular joint military exercises are held, and the two countries are both party to a number of international and regional forums and councils. However, the precarious situation in appeasing both Russia and the USA has prevented all parties from making the most out of their partnerships, and so Kazakhstan has sought other regional allies to treat with.
3.2. Kazakhstan and China
China has been a long term ally of Kazakhstan and the two countries have had a number of high level official visits. Both countries were co-founders of the Shanghai-Cooperation Organisation (SCO) along with Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. This has boosted regional relations for China who, with their rapidly growing domestic energy needs, seek stable sources of energy and resources.
This came to a head with Astana and Beijing announcing the Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline in addition to a new regional strategic alliance. The pipeline will run from the oil fields near the Caspian Sea all the way to processing centres in the heart of China. The Kazakhstan-China Oil Pipeline deal has taken many years to negotiate and, coupled with a new regional strategic alliance, is a clear sign that Kazakhstan is becoming increasingly able to defend its own national interests, but is also emblematic of China’s growing influence in the region.Kazakhstan has made a large number of statements to reassure that the new strategic alliance is not directed at any third parties.
President Nazarbayev’s increasing friendliness with Beijing is part of his strategy to balance Russia’s influence in the north, and bring prosperity and further independence to his country. China has a rapidly growing economy that requires fuel. Allying with Kazakhstan is a good way to secure a stable source of oil, but also to keep American influence in the region in check. The pipeline deal will benefit both parties greatly and usher in a new era of Sino-Kazakhstani relations.
4. Regional Nuclear Powers
The two leading nuclear powers of the region are Russia and China.
Russia, like Pakistan, the United Kingdom, the USA, and France, say they will use nuclear weapons against either nuclear or non-nuclear states only in the case of invasion or other attack against their territory or against one of their allies. Though Russia has approximately 8,500 nuclear devices (the most of any single country), it prefers to use its status as a nuclear power as political leverage. The Cold War has taught Russia to respect the awesome power of nuclear weapons.