National 1999 Party Vote

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2008 GENERAL ELECTION

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS BY ELECTORATE, AREA AND REGION

NOVEMBER 2008

CONTENTS

2008 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar,

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Contents / 2
Introduction / 3
2008 Overall Election Results / 4
Overall Election Results Changes 2005 to 2008 / 5
2008 Party Vote by Region / 6
2008 Party Vote by Area / 7
Party Vote Change 2005 – 2008 by Region / 8
Party Vote Change 2005 – 2008 by Area / 8
National 2008 Party Vote / 9
National 2008 Party Vote Percentage / 10
National 2008 Electorate Vote / 11
National 2008 Electorate Vote Percentage / 12
National Party Vote Change 05to 08 / 13
National Party Vote Relative Change 05to 08 / 14
National Electorate Vote Change 05 to 08 / 15
National Electorate Vote Relative Change 05 to 08 / 16
National 2008 Electorate Vote/Party Vote / 17
National 2008 Electorate Margins / 18
2008 Electorate Majorities / 19
Labour 2008 Party Vote Percentage / 20
Labour 2008 Electorate Vote Percentage / 21

Labour 2008 Electorate Vote/Party Vote

22 Labour Party Vote Change 05to 08

23

Labour Electorate Vote Change 05to 08 / 24
NZ First 2008 Party Vote Percentage / 25
NZ First Party Vote Change 05to 08 / 26
ACT 2008 Party Vote Percentage / 27
ACT Party Vote Change 05to 08 / 28
Greens 2008 Party Vote Percentage / 29
Greens Party Vote Change 05to 08 / 30
Maori2008 Party Vote Percentage / 31
Maori Party Vote Change 05 to 08 / 32
Right 2008 Party Vote Percentage / 33
Centre 2008 Party Vote Percentage / 34
Left 2005 Party Vote Percentage / 35
Right – Left 2008 Party Vote Percentage / 36
Right Party Vote Change 05 to 08 / 37
2008 Valid (Party) Votes / 38
2008 Voter Turnout / 39

2008 Party Vote Placings

40

2008 Electorate Vote Placings / 41

2008 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar,

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INTRODUCTION

This document shows results for National, Labour, Maori Party, ACT, NZ First and Green, for each of the 70 electorates. Generally each page has the electorates ranked in order from “best” to “worst” for that particular criterion.

Electorates have been grouped into the five National Party Regions (plus a “Maori” Region) and also have been grouped into Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Provincial, and Rural areas so results can be compared for these groupings.

Parties have also been grouped together for bloc analysis. The following definitions have been used:

R = Right = National + ACT

C = Centre = NZ First + United Future + Maori Party

L = Left = Labour + Greens + Progressive

R – L = Gap between votes for the right and the left parties

Inquiries or requests for further information are welcome.

David Farrar

23 November 2008

2008 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS

Party / Party Votes / % of all Party Votes / % of effective party vote / Seat Entitlement / Electorate Seats / List Seats / Total Seats
National / 1,053,398 / 44.93% / 48.08% / 58 / 41 / 17 / 58
Labour / 796,880 / 33.99% / 36.37% / 43 / 21 / 22 / 43
Greens / 157,613 / 6.72% / 7.19% / 9 / 0 / 9 / 9
ACT / 85,496 / 3.65% / 3.90% / 5 / 1 / 4 / 5
Maori / 55,980 / 2.39% / 2.55% / 3 / 5 / 0 / 5
Progressive / 21,241 / 0.91% / 0.97% / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1
United Future / 20,497 / 0.87% / 0.94% / 1 / 1 / 0 / 1
SUB-TOTAL / 2,191,105 / 93.40% / 100.00% / 120 / 70 / 52 / 122
NZ First / 95,356 / 4.07%
Bill & Ben / 13,016 / 0.56%
Kiwi / 12,755 / 0.54%
Legalise Cannabis / 9,515 / 0.41%
Pacific / 8,640 / 0.37%
Family / 8,176 / 0.35%
Alliance / 1,909 / 0.08%
Democrats / 1,208 / 0.05%
Libertarianz / 1,176 / 0.05%
Workers / 932 / 0.04%
RAM / 465 / 0.05%
Republic of NZ / 313 / 0.01%
TOTAL / 2,344,566 / 100.00%
Right / 1,138,894 / 48.58%
Centre / 76,477 / 3.26%
Left / 975,734 / 41.62%
R – L / 163,160 / 6.96%

The three parliamentary parties of the left (Labour, Greens Progressive) got 41.6%. The two of the right (National, ACT) got 45.8% and the two of the centre (United Future and Maori) got 3.2%.

The wasted vote was very high at6.6% up from 1.3% in 2005. NZ First was the highest of the parties that did not make it.

OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2005 TO 2008

Party / Party Vote Change % / 2008 Party Vote % / 2005 Party Vote % / Electorate Vote Change % / 2008 Electorate Vote % / 2005 Electorate Vote %
National / 5.83% / 44.93% / 39.10% / 6.22% / 46.60% / 40.38%
Labour / -7.11% / 33.99% / 41.10% / -5.13% / 35.22% / 40.35%
Greens / 1.42% / 6.72% / 5.30% / 1.51% / 5.63% / 4.12%
ACT / 2.14% / 3.65% / 1.51% / 1.02% / 2.99% / 1.97%
Maori / 0.27% / 2.39% / 2.12% / -0.02% / 3.34% / 3.36%
Progressive / -0.25% / 0.91% / 1.16% / -0.51% / 1.13% / 1.64%
United Future / -1.86% / 0.81% / 2.67% / -1.71% / 1.13% / 2.84%
SUB-TOTAL / -5.28% / 93.40% / 98.68% / -2.11% / 96.04% / 98.15%
NZ First / -1.65% / 4.07% / 5.72% / -1.80% / 1.69% / 3.49%
Others / 1.17% / 2.48% / 1.31% / 0.41% / 2.26% / 1.85%
TOTAL / 100.00% / 100.00% / 100.00% / 100.00%
Right / 7.97% / 48.58% / 40.61% / 7.24% / 49.59% / 42.35%
Centre / -7.31% / 3.26% / 10.51% / -5.22% / 4.47% / 9.69%
Left / -5.94% / 41.62% / 47.56% / -4.13% / 41.98% / 46.11%
R – L / 13.91% / 6.96% / -6.95% / 11.37% / 7.61% / -3.76%

In 2005 the left had 7.0% more party votes than the right. This reverses itself in 2008 with the right having 7.0% more party votes.

Overall there was a 5.3% increase in wasted votes, a 8.0% increasein votes for right parties, a 7.3% drop for centre parties that made the threshold and a 5.9% drop for left parties.

2008 PARTY VOTE BY REGION

Party / Northern / CNI / LNI / C/W / Southern / Maori
National / 49.1% / 52.7% / 42.8% / 45.0% / 44.6% / 7.4%
Labour / 31.8% / 27.3% / 36.8% / 34.7% / 36.3% / 50.1%
Greens / 5.6% / 5.5% / 8.6% / 8.3% / 7.9% / 3.9%
ACT / 5.0% / 3.7% / 3.3% / 2.8% / 2.9% / 0.5%
Maori / 0.7% / 1.0% / 0.8% / 0.5% / 0.5% / 28.9%
Progressive / 0.7% / 0.6% / 0.9% / 1.8% / 0.9% / 0.3%
United Future / 0.8% / 1.0% / 1.1% / 1.0% / 0.8% / 0.1%
NZ First / 3.5% / 5.8% / 3.7% / 3.4% / 3.6% / 6.1%
Right / 54.1% / 56.4% / 46.1% / 47.8% / 47.5% / 7.9%
Centre / 5.0% / 7.8% / 5.7% / 4.9% / 4.9% / 35.1%
Left / 38.2% / 33.4% / 46.2% / 44.8% / 45.2% / 54.3%
R – L / 15.9% / 23.0% / -0.1% / 2.9% / 2.3% / -46.4%

The above figures are on the boundaries of the five National Party Regions. The seven Maori seats are treated as a de facto sixth Region to allow a cleaner comparison from Region to Region.

National got over 50% in the CNI Region and 49.1% in Northern. LNI was the lowest Region at 42.8%

LNI Region is the best area for Labour at 36.8% followed by Southern at 36.3%. They are weakest in CNI at 27.3%.

NZ First was strongest in CNI Region at 5.8% and the Maori seats at 6.1%.

Maori Party were at or below 1% everywhere except the Maori seats where they got 28.9% of the party vote.

ACT support is significantly higher in Northern with 5.0%.

Support for the Greens was best in LNI at 9.6% and C/W at 8.3%. Lowest in Northern and CNI.

United Future was also highest in LNI and C/W.

Progressive is highest in CW Region at 1.8% - homeland of Jim Anderton

The gap between National and Labour for each Region was:

Northern +17.3%

CNI +25.4%

LNI +6.0%

C/W +10.3%

Southern +8.3%

2008 PARTY VOTE BY AREA

Party / Auckland / Wgtn / Chch / Provincial / Rural / Maori
National / 48.3% / 38.0% / 42.1% / 45.9% / 53.9% / 7.4%
Labour / 32.9% / 39.6% / 37.0% / 34.8% / 26.1% / 50.1%
Greens / 5.6% / 11.8% / 8.8% / 6.5% / 6.1% / 3.9%
ACT / 4.9% / 2.9% / 2.6% / 3.1% / 4.3% / 0.5%
Maori / 0.7% / 0.9% / 0.6% / 0.8% / 0.7% / 28.9%
Progressive / 0.7% / 0.8% / 2.5% / 0.8% / 0.8% / 0.3%
United Future / 0.8% / 1.4% / 1.0% / 0.9% / 0.9% / 0.1%
NZ First / 3.2% / 2.7% / 3.2% / 4.7% / 4.9% / 6.1%
Right / 53.3% / 40.9% / 44.6% / 49.0% / 58.2% / 7.9%
Centre / 4.6% / 4.9% / 4.7% / 6.5% / 6.5% / 35.1%
Left / 39.3% / 52.1% / 48.3% / 42.2% / 33.0% / 54.3%
R – L / 14.0% / -11.2% / -3.7% / 6.8% / 25.2% / -46.4%

Auckland is defined as the 20 seats in greater Auckland stretching from Rodney in the North to Papakura in the South.
Wellington is the six seats South of and including Mana and Rimutaka.
Christchurch is the six seats wholly or mainly in Christchurch including Waimakariri and Port Hills.
Provincial are those 17 seats which have more than 50% of their population in minor cities such as Nelson, New Plymouth, Dunedin, Hamilton, Napier etc
Rural are the 14 seats where less than 50% of the population live in a city.

Labour is strongest in Wellington at 46.2% and weakest in rural NZ at 32.4%

National is lowest in Wellington at 34.1% and highest in rural NZ at 48.2%.

NZ First does very well in provincial and rural NZ and worst in Wellington.

ACT is strongest in Auckland.

Greens are very high in Wellington.

United Future also strongest in Wellington.

Progressive as expected strongest in Christchurch at 3.3%

The gap between National and Labour for each area was:

Auckland-0.4%

Wellington-12.1%

Christchurch -7.6%

Provincial -1.1%

Rural+16.2%

PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2005 – 2008 BY REGION

Party / Northern / CNI / LNI / C/W / Southern / Maori
National / 6.8% / 6.9% / 4.3% / 5.8% / 5.5% / 3.1%
Labour / -8.5% / -6.5% / -6.0% / -6.5% / -8.2% / -4.5%
Greens / 0.9% / 1.2% / 2.0% / 1.6% / 2.5% / 0.6%
ACT / 2.8% / 2.3% / 2.1% / 1.6% / 1.7% / 0.3%
Maori / 0.1% / 0.3% / 0.2% / 0.3% / 0.3% / 1.2%
Progressive / -0.3% / -0.3% / -0.2% / -0.3% / -0.3% / -0.1%
United Future / -1.4% / -2.0% / -2.2% / -2.3% / -1.9% / -0.4%
NZ First / -1.9% / -3.0% / -1.3% / -1.4% / -0.8% / 0.1%
Right / 9.6% / 9.2% / 6.4% / 7.3% / 7.1% / 3.4%
Centre / -3.2% / -4.7% / -3.2% / -3.4% / -2.5% / 0.9%
Left / -7.8% / -5.6% / -4.2% / -5.3% / -5.9% / -4.0%
R – L / 17.4% / 14.8% / 10.6% / 12.5% / 13.0% / 7.4%

National had the biggest increases in Northern and CNI, and the smallest in LNI. It did increase its vote in Maori seats by 3.1%.

Labour’s biggest declines were in Northern and Southern Regions.

The Greens picked up most support in LNI and Southern.

In terms of the gap between right and left, Northern had the biggest swing with a 17.4% increase. Next was CNI at 14.8%. LNI only had a 10.6% increase in the gap.

PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2005 – 2008 BY AREA

Party / Auckland / Wgtn / Chch / Provincial / Rural / Maori
National / 6.9% / 3.9% / 5.6% / 5.8% / 5.7% / 3.1%
Labour / -8.9% / -6.6% / -7.1% / -6.4% / -6.3% / -4.5%
Greens / 1.0% / 3.1% / 2.0% / 1.4% / 1.4% / 0.6%
ACT / 2.7% / 1.5% / 1.5% / 1.9% / 2.7% / 0.3%
Maori / 0.2% / 0.4% / 0.4% / 0.2% / 0.2% / 1.2%
Progressive / -0.3% / -0.2% / -0.1% / -0.3% / -0.2% / -0.1%
United Future / -1.4% / -2.5% / -2.4% / -2.0% / -1.8% / -0.4%
NZ First / -1.6% / -0.6% / -1.2% / -1.8% / -2.8% / 0.1%
Right / 9.7% / 5.5% / -2.9% / 7.8% / 8.4% / 2.5%
Centre / -2.9% / -2.9% / -3.4% / -3.5% / -4.4% / 0.9%
Left / -8.2% / -3.7% / -5.1% / -5.3% / -5.1% / -4.0%
R – L / 17.9% / 9.2% / 12.2% / 13.1% / 13.5% / 7.4%

National gained the most in Auckland – 6.9% followed by 5.8% in provincial NZ and 5.7% in rural NZ. Wellington had the least gain at 3.9%.

Labour lost the most in Auckland – a large 8.9%. They lost the least support in provincial and rural NZ.

Greens did best in Wellington with a 3.1% increase in their vote.

The right-left margin increased by 17.9% in Auckland and only 9.2% in Wellington.

NATIONAL 2008 PARTY VOTE

2008 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar,

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1 / Epsom / 24,030
2 / Helensville / 23,559
3 / Tamaki / 23,205
4 / NorthShore / 22,738
5 / Rodney / 22,441
6 / East Coast Bays / 21,681
7 / Bay of Plenty / 21,526
8 / Pakuranga / 21,099
9 / Hunua / 21,032
10 / Waitaki / 20,426
11 / Tauranga / 20,418
12 / Clutha Southland / 20,235
13 / Selwyn / 20,141
14 / Ilam / 19,541
15 / Botany / 19,355
16 / Taranaki-King Country / 19,232
17 / Taupo / 19,001
18 / Coromandel / 18,855
19 / Waimakariri / 18,539
20 / Waikato / 18,532
21 / Kaikoura / 18,479
22 / Rangitata / 18,441
23 / Whangarei / 18,252
24 / Tukituki / 17,904
25 / Wairarapa / 17,860
26 / Northcote / 17,827
27 / Rangitikei / 17,711
28 / Northland / 17,703
29 / Ohariu / 17,670
30 / Otaki / 17,534
31 / New Plymouth / 17,512
32 / Rotorua / 16,836
33 / Napier / 16,772
34 / Hamilton East / 16,745
35 / Papakura / 16,672
36 / Invercargill / 16,663
37 / Whanganui / 15,869
38 / Hamilton West / 15,541
39 / Nelson / 15,378
40 / West Coast Tasman / 15,187
41 / East Coast / 15,160
42 / Maungakiekie / 14,903
43 / Wellington Central / 14,589
44 / Rimutaka / 14,452
45 / Mt Roskill / 14,346
46 / Auckland Central / 14,112
47 / New Lynn / 14,105
48 / Palmerston North / 14,103
49 / Port Hills / 13,816
50 / Wigram / 13,308
51 / Te Atatu / 13,183
52 / Hutt South / 13,057
53 / Waitakere / 12,952
54 / Dunedin South / 12,742
55 / Mana / 12,701
56 / Mt Albert / 12,468
57 / Christchurch Central / 12,409
58 / Christchurch East / 12,289
59 / Rongotai / 11,950
60 / Dunedin North / 9,692
61 / Manurewa / 7,941
62 / Manukau East / 6,579
63 / Mangere / 4,120
64 / Te Tai Tonga / 2,210
65 / Te Tai Tokerau / 1,883
66 / Tamaki Makaurau / 1,504
67 / Hauraki-Waikato / 1,347
68 / Te Tai Hauauru / 1,298
69 / Waiariki / 1,075
70 / Ikaroa-Rawhiti / 962

2008 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar,

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Epsom(again) had the highest absolute party vote for National at 24,030 with Helensville second on 23,559.

In total 13 electorates got a party vote over 20,000 – up from two in 2005.

41 seats got a party vote over 15,000 and 59 seats had a party vote over 10,000. In 2005 only three seats had a party vote over 10,000.

The median electorate was Papakura on 16,672 votes and the worst electorates after the Maori seats were Mangere and Manukau East.

The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage National got is seen as a more useful comparison.

Waimakariri in 19th place had the highest party vote of the seats we contested but did not win. Conversely Waitakere in 53rdplace had the lowest party vote of the seats National did win.

NATIONAL 2008 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

2008 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar,

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1 / Helensville / 63.7%
2 / Epsom / 62.6%
3 / East Coast Bays / 61.4%
4 / Botany / 61.2%
5 / Hunua / 60.6%
6 / Tamaki / 60.2%
7 / Clutha Southland / 59.9%
8 / Pakuranga / 59.7%
9 / Taranaki-King Country / 59.5%
10 / Rodney / 59.0%
11 / Bay of Plenty / 58.7%
12 / NorthShore / 58.1%
13 / Waikato / 57.4%
14 / Selwyn / 54.9%
15 / Tauranga / 54.3%
16 / Taupo / 53.6%
17 / Ilam / 52.8%
18 / Rangitikei / 52.4%
19 / Kaikoura / 51.8%
20 / Northland / 51.7%
21 / Coromandel / 51.7%
22 / Papakura / 51.5%
23 / Waitaki / 51.4%
24 / New Plymouth / 50.5%
25 / Northcote / 50.4%
26 / Rotorua / 50.3%
27 / Tukituki / 50.2%
28 / Whangarei / 50.0%
29 / Hamilton East / 49.5%
30 / Waimakariri / 49.4%
31 / Wairarapa / 48.7%
32 / Rangitata / 48.6%
33 / East Coast / 47.6%
34 / Invercargill / 47.5%
35 / Napier / 47.3%
36 / Whanganui / 46.3%
37 / Ohariu / 46.3%
38 / Hamilton West / 46.0%
39 / Otaki / 44.8%
40 / West Coast Tasman / 44.1%
41 / Maungakiekie / 42.5%
42 / Nelson / 42.5%
43 / Mt Roskill / 42.1%
44 / Te Atatu / 41.5%
45 / Waitakere / 41.2%
46 / Palmerston North / 40.7%
47 / Rimutaka / 40.7%
48 / New Lynn / 40.1%
49 / Auckland Central / 40.1%
50 / Wigram / 37.9%
51 / Hutt South / 37.8%
52 / Port Hills / 37.7%
53 / Christchurch Central / 37.6%
54 / Mana / 36.7%
55 / Christchurch East / 35.7%
56 / Mt Albert / 35.7%
57 / Wellington Central / 35.4%
58 / Dunedin South / 34.2%
59 / Rongotai / 31.4%
60 / Manurewa / 30.3%
61 / Dunedin North / 29.4%
62 / Manukau East / 24.2%
63 / Mangere / 16.4%
64 / Te Tai Tonga / 11.1%
65 / Te Tai Tokerau / 9.3%
66 / Tamaki Makaurau / 7.4%
67 / Hauraki-Waikato / 7.2%
68 / Te Tai Hauauru / 6.6%
69 / Waiariki / 5.5%
70 / Ikaroa-Rawhiti / 4.9%

2008 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar,

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2008 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar,

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On a percentage basis Helensville had the best party vote for National at 63.7% followed by Epsom and East CoastBays.

Six electorates got over 60% party vote, and 28 electorates got over 50% party vote. 49 electorates got over 40% party vote.

Waimakariri in 30thplace was the highest polling seat of those National did not win but contested. Auckland Central in 49th place had the lowest party vote percentage of the seats National did win.

The median electorate is Napier on 47.3%.

Apart from the Maori seats Mangere, Manukau East and Dunedin North were worse for National on 16.4%, 24.2% and 29.4%.

NATIONAL 2008 ELECTORATE VOTE

2008 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar,

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1 / Helensville / 26,771
2 / Tamaki / 24,863
3 / NorthShore / 23,824
4 / Waitaki / 23,649
5 / Bay of Plenty / 23,405
6 / Whangarei / 23,056
7 / Rodney / 22,698
8 / Coromandel / 22,653
9 / Clutha Southland / 22,631
10 / Hunua / 21,920
11 / Selwyn / 21,836
12 / Taranaki-King Country / 21,834
13 / Rangitikei / 21,801
14 / Rangitata / 21,759
15 / Pakuranga / 21,430
16 / Tauranga / 21,051
17 / Napier / 20,898
18 / Ilam / 20,648
19 / Nelson / 20,471
20 / Kaikoura / 20,374
21 / Taupo / 20,211
22 / East Coast Bays / 20,151
23 / Northcote / 20,132
24 / Waikato / 20,122
25 / Tukituki / 20,103
26 / Northland / 19,889
27 / Hamilton East / 19,441
28 / Invercargill / 19,414
29 / Whanganui / 19,072
30 / Otaki / 18,885
31 / Papakura / 18,816
32 / Wairarapa / 18,524
33 / Rotorua / 17,700
34 / Botany / 17,382
35 / New Plymouth / 16,539
36 / East Coast / 16,463
37 / Hamilton West / 16,163
38 / Waimakariri / 15,970
39 / West Coast Tasman / 15,844
40 / Maungakiekie / 15,491
41 / Wellington Central / 15,142
42 / Palmerston North / 14,860
43 / Auckland Central / 14,677
44 / Waitakere / 13,704
45 / Port Hills / 13,382
46 / New Lynn / 13,306
47 / Christchurch Central / 13,143
48 / Rimutaka / 12,982
49 / Dunedin South / 12,750
50 / Hutt South / 12,604
51 / Christchurch East / 12,204
52 / Mt Roskill / 12,197
53 / Mana / 11,915
54 / Te Atatu / 11,161
55 / Rongotai / 10,594
56 / Wigram / 10,553
57 / Ohariu / 10,009
58 / Dunedin North / 9,972
59 / Mt Albert / 9,806
60 / Epsom / 8,220
61 / Manurewa / 6,785
62 / Manukau East / 4,809
63 / Mangere / 3,368

2008 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar,

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No surprise that Helensville had the highest electorate vote for National at 26,711 with Tamaki and NorthShore following.

25 National MPs managed attracted over 20,000 votes. Selwyn had the highest votes for a new candidate in 11th place at 21,836.

The median electorate was Wairarapa on 18,524 votes and the worse electorates (Maori seats were not contested) were Mangere and Manukau East.

The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage National got is seen as a more useful comparison.

Waimakariri in 38th place had the highest electorate vote of the seats National contested but did not win. Conversely Waitakere in 44th place had the lowest electorate vote of the seats National did win.

NATIONAL 2008 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE

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1 / Helensville / 73.6%
2 / Taranaki-King Country / 68.7%
3 / Clutha Southland / 67.9%
4 / Tamaki / 65.7%
5 / Rangitikei / 65.7%
6 / Bay of Plenty / 64.9%
7 / Hunua / 64.4%
8 / Whangarei / 64.2%
9 / Waikato / 63.4%
10 / Coromandel / 63.0%
11 / NorthShore / 61.8%
12 / Pakuranga / 61.6%
13 / Selwyn / 60.5%
14 / Rodney / 60.4%
15 / Waitaki / 60.1%
16 / Napier / 59.7%
17 / Papakura / 59.7%
18 / Northland / 59.1%
19 / Hamilton East / 58.6%
20 / East Coast Bays / 58.1%
21 / Taupo / 57.9%
22 / Northcote / 57.9%
23 / Rangitata / 57.9%
24 / Kaikoura / 57.8%
25 / Tukituki / 57.2%
26 / Nelson / 57.1%
27 / Ilam / 56.9%
28 / Tauranga / 56.8%
29 / Whanganui / 56.3%
30 / Botany / 56.2%
31 / Invercargill / 56.0%
32 / Rotorua / 53.9%
33 / East Coast / 52.5%
34 / Wairarapa / 51.0%
35 / Hamilton West / 48.8%
36 / Otaki / 48.7%
37 / New Plymouth / 48.2%
38 / West Coast Tasman / 46.5%
39 / Maungakiekie / 45.5%
40 / Waitakere / 44.9%
41 / Palmerston North / 43.5%
42 / Waimakariri / 43.0%
43 / Auckland Central / 42.9%
44 / Christchurch Central / 40.9%
45 / New Lynn / 38.7%
46 / Wellington Central / 37.5%
47 / Hutt South / 37.2%
48 / Port Hills / 37.1%
49 / Rimutaka / 37.1%
50 / Mt Roskill / 36.6%
51 / Te Atatu / 36.2%
52 / Christchurch East / 35.9%
53 / Mana / 35.0%
54 / Dunedin South / 34.7%
55 / Wigram / 30.7%
56 / Dunedin North / 30.6%
57 / Mt Albert / 28.8%
58 / Rongotai / 28.3%
59 / Manurewa / 27.1%
60 / Ohariu / 26.5%
61 / Epsom / 21.8%
62 / Manukau East / 18.4%
63 / Mangere / 14.0%

- 1 -

Helensville is the only National seat with over 70% of the vote – 73.6%. Following that are Taranaki-King Country and .Clutha-Southland.

15 seats had electorate votes of over 60% and 34 seats had an absolute majority of over 50%.

Palmerston North on 43.5% in 41stplace had the highest electorate vote percentage of any seat which National did not win. Auckland Central in 43rdplace had the lowest percentage on 42.9% of a seat National did win.

National’s electorate vote percentage was lowest in Mangere,Manukau East, Epsom, Ohariu and Manurewa.

NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 05 TO 08

- 1 -

Change / 2008 / 2005
1 / Bay of Plenty / 10.0% / 58.7% / 48.7%
2 / Te Atatu / 9.9% / 41.5% / 31.6%
3 / Christchurch Central / 9.3% / 37.6% / 28.3%
4 / New Lynn / 9.3% / 40.1% / 30.8%
5 / Tauranga / 9.0% / 54.3% / 45.3%
6 / Botany / 9.0% / 61.2% / 52.3%
7 / Waitakere / 8.6% / 41.2% / 32.6%
8 / East Coast Bays / 8.5% / 61.4% / 52.9%
9 / Helensville / 8.4% / 63.7% / 55.3%
10 / Waimakariri / 7.8% / 49.4% / 41.6%
11 / Rotorua / 7.7% / 50.3% / 42.7%
12 / Northcote / 7.4% / 50.4% / 43.0%
13 / Christchurch East / 7.4% / 35.7% / 28.3%
14 / Mt Roskill / 7.2% / 42.1% / 34.9%
15 / Rodney / 7.0% / 59.0% / 52.0%
16 / Maungakiekie / 7.0% / 42.5% / 35.5%
17 / Mt Albert / 6.9% / 35.7% / 28.7%
18 / Taupo / 6.9% / 53.6% / 46.6%
19 / Whangarei / 6.9% / 50.0% / 43.1%
20 / Kaikoura / 6.8% / 51.8% / 45.0%
21 / Selwyn / 6.7% / 54.9% / 48.2%
22 / Auckland Central / 6.7% / 40.1% / 33.4%
23 / Coromandel / 6.6% / 51.7% / 45.0%
24 / Waikato / 6.6% / 57.4% / 50.9%
25 / Hamilton West / 6.5% / 46.0% / 39.5%
26 / Pakuranga / 6.1% / 59.7% / 53.6%
27 / Dunedin South / 5.8% / 34.2% / 28.4%
28 / Nelson / 5.8% / 42.5% / 36.7%
29 / Manurewa / 5.8% / 30.3% / 24.5%
30 / Northland / 5.8% / 51.7% / 45.9%
31 / Hunua / 5.7% / 60.6% / 54.9%
32 / Invercargill / 5.6% / 47.5% / 41.9%
33 / Otaki / 5.6% / 44.8% / 39.2%
34 / Ilam / 5.5% / 52.8% / 47.3%
35 / Waitaki / 5.5% / 51.4% / 45.8%
36 / Rimutaka / 5.4% / 40.7% / 35.2%
37 / Port Hills / 5.4% / 37.7% / 32.3%
38 / Clutha Southland / 5.4% / 59.9% / 54.5%
39 / New Plymouth / 5.3% / 50.5% / 45.1%
40 / Rangitikei / 5.2% / 52.4% / 47.3%
41 / Napier / 5.1% / 47.3% / 42.2%
42 / Mana / 5.0% / 36.7% / 31.7%
43 / Taranaki-King Country / 4.8% / 59.5% / 54.8%
44 / Epsom / 4.7% / 62.6% / 57.9%
45 / NorthShore / 4.6% / 58.1% / 53.5%
46 / East Coast / 4.5% / 47.6% / 43.1%
47 / Wigram / 4.4% / 37.9% / 33.5%
48 / Te Tai Tokerau / 4.3% / 9.3% / 5.0%
49 / West Coast Tasman / 4.2% / 44.1% / 39.8%
50 / Hamilton East / 4.1% / 49.5% / 45.4%
51 / Palmerston North / 4.0% / 40.7% / 36.7%
52 / Te Tai Tonga / 3.9% / 11.1% / 7.2%
53 / Whanganui / 3.9% / 46.3% / 42.4%
54 / Dunedin North / 3.7% / 29.4% / 25.6%
55 / Rongotai / 3.7% / 31.4% / 27.7%
56 / Wairarapa / 3.7% / 48.7% / 45.0%
57 / Manukau East / 3.5% / 24.2% / 20.6%
58 / Tukituki / 3.5% / 50.2% / 46.8%
59 / Hutt South / 3.4% / 37.8% / 34.4%
60 / Tamaki Makaurau / 3.4% / 7.4% / 4.0%
61 / Ohariu / 3.3% / 46.3% / 43.0%
62 / Rangitata / 3.2% / 48.6% / 45.4%
63 / Hauraki-Waikato / 3.1% / 7.2% / 4.1%
64 / Papakura / 3.0% / 51.5% / 48.5%
65 / Tamaki / 3.0% / 60.2% / 57.3%
66 / Te Tai Hauauru / 2.9% / 6.6% / 3.7%
67 / Mangere / 2.9% / 16.4% / 13.6%
68 / Waiariki / 2.7% / 5.5% / 2.8%
69 / Wellington Central / 2.6% / 35.4% / 32.8%
70 / Ikaroa-Rawhiti / 2.1% / 4.9% / 2.8%

- 1 -

Every electorate increased the party vote. Bay of Plenty had the largest increase at 10.0%, followed by Te Atatu at 9.9%, Christchurch Central and New Lynn both on 9.3%. The 2005 figures are the recalculations done on the new boundaries.

The seat with the smallest party vote increase was Ikaroa-Rawhiti on 2.1% followed by Wellington Central on 2.6%.

16 seats had an increase of 7% or more, and 42 seats an increase of 5% or more.

The median electorate was Waitaki with an5.5% increase.

NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 05 TO 08

- 1 -

Change / 2008 / 2005
1 / Waiariki / 94.1% / 5.5% / 2.8%
2 / Te Tai Tokerau / 86.4% / 9.3% / 5.0%
3 / Tamaki Makaurau / 86.0% / 7.4% / 4.0%
4 / Te Tai Hauauru / 77.6% / 6.6% / 3.7%
5 / Hauraki-Waikato / 75.3% / 7.2% / 4.1%
6 / Ikaroa-Rawhiti / 74.3% / 4.9% / 2.8%
7 / Te Tai Tonga / 54.3% / 11.1% / 7.2%
8 / Christchurch Central / 32.8% / 37.6% / 28.3%
9 / Te Atatu / 31.3% / 41.5% / 31.6%
10 / New Lynn / 30.1% / 40.1% / 30.8%
11 / Waitakere / 26.5% / 41.2% / 32.6%
12 / Christchurch East / 26.0% / 35.7% / 28.3%
13 / Mt Albert / 24.2% / 35.7% / 28.7%
14 / Manurewa / 23.6% / 30.3% / 24.5%
15 / Mangere / 21.0% / 16.4% / 13.6%
16 / Dunedin South / 20.6% / 34.2% / 28.4%
17 / Bay of Plenty / 20.6% / 58.7% / 48.7%
18 / Mt Roskill / 20.5% / 42.1% / 34.9%
19 / Auckland Central / 20.0% / 40.1% / 33.4%
20 / Tauranga / 20.0% / 54.3% / 45.3%
21 / Maungakiekie / 19.8% / 42.5% / 35.5%
22 / Waimakariri / 18.8% / 49.4% / 41.6%
23 / Rotorua / 17.9% / 50.3% / 42.7%
24 / Northcote / 17.2% / 50.4% / 43.0%
25 / Botany / 17.2% / 61.2% / 52.3%
26 / Manukau East / 17.2% / 24.2% / 20.6%
27 / Port Hills / 16.8% / 37.7% / 32.3%
28 / Hamilton West / 16.5% / 46.0% / 39.5%
29 / East Coast Bays / 16.1% / 61.4% / 52.9%
30 / Whangarei / 16.1% / 50.0% / 43.1%
31 / Nelson / 15.8% / 42.5% / 36.7%
32 / Mana / 15.7% / 36.7% / 31.7%
33 / Rimutaka / 15.5% / 40.7% / 35.2%
34 / Helensville / 15.2% / 63.7% / 55.3%
35 / Kaikoura / 15.1% / 51.8% / 45.0%
36 / Taupo / 14.9% / 53.6% / 46.6%
37 / Coromandel / 14.7% / 51.7% / 45.0%
38 / Dunedin North / 14.6% / 29.4% / 25.6%
39 / Otaki / 14.3% / 44.8% / 39.2%
40 / Selwyn / 14.0% / 54.9% / 48.2%
41 / Rodney / 13.5% / 59.0% / 52.0%
42 / Invercargill / 13.4% / 47.5% / 41.9%
43 / Rongotai / 13.3% / 31.4% / 27.7%
44 / Wigram / 13.2% / 37.9% / 33.5%
45 / Waikato / 12.9% / 57.4% / 50.9%
46 / Northland / 12.6% / 51.7% / 45.9%
47 / Napier / 12.1% / 47.3% / 42.2%
48 / Waitaki / 12.1% / 51.4% / 45.8%
49 / New Plymouth / 11.8% / 50.5% / 45.1%
50 / Ilam / 11.7% / 52.8% / 47.3%
51 / Pakuranga / 11.4% / 59.7% / 53.6%
52 / Rangitikei / 10.9% / 52.4% / 47.3%
53 / Palmerston North / 10.9% / 40.7% / 36.7%
54 / West Coast Tasman / 10.7% / 44.1% / 39.8%
55 / East Coast / 10.4% / 47.6% / 43.1%
56 / Hunua / 10.4% / 60.6% / 54.9%
57 / Hutt South / 10.0% / 37.8% / 34.4%
58 / Clutha Southland / 9.9% / 59.9% / 54.5%
59 / Whanganui / 9.1% / 46.3% / 42.4%
60 / Hamilton East / 9.0% / 49.5% / 45.4%
61 / Taranaki-King Country / 8.7% / 59.5% / 54.8%
62 / NorthShore / 8.5% / 58.1% / 53.5%
63 / Wairarapa / 8.2% / 48.7% / 45.0%
64 / Epsom / 8.0% / 62.6% / 57.9%
65 / Wellington Central / 8.0% / 35.4% / 32.8%
66 / Ohariu / 7.6% / 46.3% / 43.0%
67 / Tukituki / 7.4% / 50.2% / 46.8%
68 / Rangitata / 7.1% / 48.6% / 45.4%
69 / Papakura / 6.1% / 51.5% / 48.5%
70 / Tamaki / 5.2% / 60.2% / 57.3%

- 1 -

The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2005 vote.

As the Maori seats were on such a small base, they top the table. Next in Christchurch Central where the party vote increased 32.8% relative to 2005. Te Atatu, New Lynn and Waitakere had the next largest relative increases.

Tamaki had the smallest relative increase at 5.2%

The median increase was 15% in Kaikoura.

NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 05 TO 08

- 1 -

Change / 2008 / 2005
1 / Tauranga / 15.2% / 56.8% / 41.6%
2 / Christchurch Central / 14.0% / 40.9% / 26.9%
3 / Waitakere / 13.9% / 44.9% / 31.0%
4 / Rotorua / 13.7% / 53.9% / 40.2%
5 / Taupo / 13.2% / 57.9% / 44.7%
6 / Maungakiekie / 11.7% / 45.5% / 33.9%
7 / Whangarei / 10.3% / 64.2% / 53.8%
8 / Auckland Central / 10.2% / 42.9% / 32.7%
9 / New Plymouth / 10.2% / 48.2% / 38.0%
10 / New Lynn / 10.1% / 38.7% / 28.5%
11 / Te Atatu / 10.0% / 36.2% / 26.3%
12 / East Coast Bays / 9.8% / 58.1% / 48.3%
13 / Christchurch East / 9.7% / 35.9% / 26.2%
14 / Coromandel / 9.6% / 63.0% / 53.5%
15 / Waitaki / 9.4% / 60.1% / 50.8%
16 / Helensville / 9.3% / 73.6% / 64.3%
17 / Napier / 9.2% / 59.7% / 50.5%
18 / Selwyn / 9.0% / 60.5% / 51.5%
19 / Waimakariri / 8.8% / 43.0% / 34.2%
20 / Northcote / 8.5% / 57.9% / 49.4%
21 / Ilam / 7.9% / 56.9% / 49.0%
22 / Manurewa / 7.8% / 27.1% / 19.3%
23 / Wairarapa / 7.6% / 51.0% / 43.5%
24 / Hamilton East / 7.5% / 58.6% / 51.1%
25 / Tukituki / 7.3% / 57.2% / 49.9%
26 / Waikato / 7.1% / 63.4% / 56.4%
27 / Bay of Plenty / 7.0% / 64.9% / 57.8%
28 / Pakuranga / 7.0% / 61.6% / 54.5%
29 / Mt Roskill / 6.9% / 36.6% / 29.7%
30 / Rimutaka / 6.6% / 37.1% / 30.6%
31 / Dunedin South / 6.5% / 34.7% / 28.2%
32 / Rangitikei / 6.4% / 65.7% / 59.3%
33 / Mt Albert / 6.1% / 28.8% / 22.7%
34 / Kaikoura / 6.1% / 57.8% / 51.7%
35 / Port Hills / 6.1% / 37.1% / 31.1%
36 / East Coast / 5.9% / 52.5% / 46.6%
37 / Hamilton West / 5.9% / 48.8% / 42.9%
38 / Ohariu / 5.9% / 26.5% / 20.7%
39 / Hutt South / 5.8% / 37.2% / 31.4%
40 / Rodney / 5.7% / 60.4% / 54.7%
41 / Whanganui / 5.6% / 56.3% / 50.7%
42 / Clutha Southland / 5.2% / 67.9% / 62.7%
43 / Northland / 4.9% / 59.1% / 54.3%
44 / Palmerston North / 4.6% / 43.5% / 38.9%
45 / West Coast Tasman / 4.4% / 46.5% / 42.1%
46 / Invercargill / 4.2% / 56.0% / 51.7%
47 / Tamaki / 4.1% / 65.7% / 61.6%
48 / Rongotai / 3.9% / 28.3% / 24.4%
49 / Otaki / 3.9% / 48.7% / 44.8%
50 / Papakura / 3.3% / 59.7% / 56.3%
51 / Taranaki-King Country / 3.2% / 68.7% / 65.5%
52 / Mana / 3.2% / 35.0% / 31.8%
53 / Rangitata / 3.1% / 57.9% / 54.7%
54 / Wellington Central / 3.0% / 37.5% / 34.5%
55 / Botany / 2.6% / 56.2% / 53.6%
56 / NorthShore / 2.3% / 61.8% / 59.6%
57 / Nelson / 1.8% / 57.1% / 55.3%
58 / Wigram / 1.4% / 30.7% / 29.2%
59 / Manukau East / 1.0% / 18.4% / 17.4%
60 / Mangere / 1.0% / 14.0% / 13.0%
61 / Hunua / 0.9% / 64.4% / 63.5%
62 / Dunedin North / -1.1% / 30.6% / 31.7%
63 / Epsom / -12.9% / 21.8% / 34.8%

- 1 -

Tauranga had the largest electorate vote increase at 15.2% followed by Christchurch Central on 14.0%.

The biggest increase for a seat National did not win was Christchurch Central at 14.0% and then New Lynn at 10.1%.

Only two seats had a drop – Epsom and Dunedin North.

The median electorate was Rangitikeiwith a 6.4% increase.

NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 05 TO 08

- 1 -

Change / 2008 / 2005
1 / Christchurch Central / 52.1% / 40.9% / 26.9%
2 / Waitakere / 44.7% / 44.9% / 31.0%
3 / Manurewa / 40.4% / 27.1% / 19.3%
4 / Te Atatu / 38.0% / 36.2% / 26.3%
5 / Christchurch East / 37.1% / 35.9% / 26.2%
6 / Tauranga / 36.5% / 56.8% / 41.6%
7 / New Lynn / 35.4% / 38.7% / 28.5%
8 / Maungakiekie / 34.5% / 45.5% / 33.9%
9 / Rotorua / 34.0% / 53.9% / 40.2%
10 / Auckland Central / 31.4% / 42.9% / 32.7%
11 / Taupo / 29.6% / 57.9% / 44.7%
12 / Ohariu / 28.3% / 26.5% / 20.7%
13 / Mt Albert / 27.0% / 28.8% / 22.7%
14 / New Plymouth / 26.9% / 48.2% / 38.0%
15 / Waimakariri / 25.7% / 43.0% / 34.2%
16 / Mt Roskill / 23.3% / 36.6% / 29.7%
17 / Dunedin South / 22.9% / 34.7% / 28.2%
18 / Rimutaka / 21.4% / 37.1% / 30.6%
19 / East Coast Bays / 20.2% / 58.1% / 48.3%
20 / Port Hills / 19.5% / 37.1% / 31.1%
21 / Whangarei / 19.2% / 64.2% / 53.8%
22 / Hutt South / 18.6% / 37.2% / 31.4%
23 / Waitaki / 18.4% / 60.1% / 50.8%
24 / Napier / 18.2% / 59.7% / 50.5%
25 / Coromandel / 17.9% / 63.0% / 53.5%
26 / Selwyn / 17.5% / 60.5% / 51.5%
27 / Wairarapa / 17.4% / 51.0% / 43.5%
28 / Northcote / 17.2% / 57.9% / 49.4%
29 / Rongotai / 16.2% / 28.3% / 24.4%
30 / Ilam / 16.0% / 56.9% / 49.0%
31 / Hamilton East / 14.6% / 58.6% / 51.1%
32 / Tukituki / 14.6% / 57.2% / 49.9%
33 / Helensville / 14.5% / 73.6% / 64.3%
34 / Hamilton West / 13.7% / 48.8% / 42.9%
35 / Pakuranga / 12.9% / 61.6% / 54.5%
36 / East Coast / 12.6% / 52.5% / 46.6%
37 / Waikato / 12.5% / 63.4% / 56.4%
38 / Bay of Plenty / 12.2% / 64.9% / 57.8%
39 / Palmerston North / 11.8% / 43.5% / 38.9%
40 / Kaikoura / 11.8% / 57.8% / 51.7%
41 / Whanganui / 11.0% / 56.3% / 50.7%
42 / Rangitikei / 10.8% / 65.7% / 59.3%
43 / West Coast Tasman / 10.5% / 46.5% / 42.1%
44 / Rodney / 10.4% / 60.4% / 54.7%
45 / Mana / 9.9% / 35.0% / 31.8%
46 / Northland / 9.0% / 59.1% / 54.3%
47 / Otaki / 8.7% / 48.7% / 44.8%
48 / Wellington Central / 8.6% / 37.5% / 34.5%
49 / Clutha Southland / 8.3% / 67.9% / 62.7%
50 / Invercargill / 8.2% / 56.0% / 51.7%
51 / Mangere / 7.3% / 14.0% / 13.0%
52 / Tamaki / 6.7% / 65.7% / 61.6%
53 / Papakura / 5.9% / 59.7% / 56.3%
54 / Manukau East / 5.9% / 18.4% / 17.4%
55 / Rangitata / 5.8% / 57.9% / 54.7%
56 / Taranaki-King Country / 4.9% / 68.7% / 65.5%
57 / Wigram / 4.9% / 30.7% / 29.2%
58 / Botany / 4.9% / 56.2% / 53.6%
59 / NorthShore / 3.8% / 61.8% / 59.6%
60 / Nelson / 3.3% / 57.1% / 55.3%
61 / Hunua / 1.5% / 64.4% / 63.5%
62 / Dunedin North / -3.4% / 30.6% / 31.7%
63 / Epsom / -37.2% / 21.8% / 34.8%