MECA Market Growth Road Map

May 16, 2005

/ North America / Other Countries/Regions /
Regulatory Item/
Status / Impact/
Priority / Current MECA Actions
And
Market Data / Additional Actions to Consider / Likelihood/
Threats / Other Countries/
Regions Impacted by 2005/2010 / Current MECA Actions / Additional Actions to Consider /
LDVs/LDTs

Tier 2 Standards

eff. 2004-2009
(www.epa.gov/otaq/tr2home.htm)
LEV II Standards
eff. 2004-2009
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/levii/levii.htm)
ZEV Program
eff. 2005-2020
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevprog.htm) / Creates opportunities for catalyst-based technologies, PM filters, thermal management strategies, engine/fuel controls, OBD technologies, evaporative emission controls; fully phased-in Tier 2 creates equivalent standards for PCs, LDTs, and MDPVs (fuel neutral) / Actions
Support the rule, diesel standards most vulnerable
1.  Technical Support and information (TS&I)
2.  APBF-DEC program
3.  3. CRC light-duty diesel programs
Market Data
LDV/LDT N.A. production in 2002
16,196,853 / Standards for gasoline LDVs and low sulfur gasoline limits appear secure.
Some risk that the standards for diesel LDVs could come under attack in Congress or by the Admin. / European Union (EU), Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Australia and Japan / 1.  Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, CMAJ, and AFNCCAC
2. Clean Fuels and Vehicles Partnership (CFVP)
3. AVECC 2003

Tier 3/LEV III

EPA: no action

ARB: proposal 2007

eff. post-2010
(www.arb.ca.gov/sip/scsip03/scsip_03.htm) / Creates additional opportunities for LDV emission control technologies and OBD technologies /
Actions
Support rule development
1.  TS&I
2. MECA PZEV test program
Market Data
TBD / LEV III – prospects look good. EPA would likely follow in some form; question is timing / EU and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC and CMAJ
Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards
EPA: no action
ARB: adopted 2004 eff.
Phase-in 2009
(www.arb.ca.gov/gcc/gcc.htm) / Potentially creates additional opportunities for LDV emission control technologies; interest in Northeast & West Coast states / Actions
Monitor developments
1.  1. TS&I
Market Data
ca. 2 million LDV/LDT sold in CA annually / ARB rule faces legal challenges and possible attack in Congress / Canada, EU, and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC and CMAJ
Motorcycles
EPA: eff. 2006/2010
(www.epa.gov/otaq/roadbike.htm)
ARB: eff. 2004/2008
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/motcycle/motcycle.htm) / EPA finalized rule in Dec. 2003 providing additional opportunities for TWCs and low permeation fuel systems / Actions
Market Data
Estimated total sales of approx. 1 million in 2004 / Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, India, China, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan / 1.  Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, CMAJ, and AFNCCAC

A/M Conv. OBD

EPA: interim policy
final: no date
(www.epa.gov/otaq/cert.htm)
ARB: interim policy
final: 2005
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/aftermkt/aftermkt.htm) / Creates opportunities for value-added converter products /
Actions
Support rulemaking
1. TS&I
Market Data
3.4 million A/M converters manufactured for sale in N.A. (2004) / 1. Revise A/M WP / Rule expected to be adopted; the question is when / EU, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, Korea, and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, CMAJ, and AFNCCAC / 1. Revise A/M WP
/ North America / Other Countries/Regions /
Regulatory Item/
Status / Impact/
Priority / Current MECA Actions / Additional Actions to Consider / Likelihood/
Threats / Other Countries/
Regions Impacted by 2005/2010 / Current MECA Actions / Additional Actions to Consider /
Upgrade Conv.
ARB: test program, incentive guidance due in 2005
(www.arb.ca.gov/sip/scsip03/scsip_03.htm) / Creates opportunities for increased sale of OBD-compliant aftermarket converters; could have interest outside CA in non-attainment areas /
Actions
Support the initiative
1.  TS&I
Seek support for /rulemaking outside of CA
Market Data
ca. 6-8 million 1984-1994 LDV in CA / 1. Revise Upgrade White Paper / High priority within ARB; whether the program moves forward depends on the benefits demonstrated in the test program and availability of funding / EU, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, Korea, and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, CMAJ, and AFNCCAC / 1. Revise Upgrade White Paper
On-Road HDEs
Phase II Standards
EPA: eff. 2007-2010
(www.epa.gov/otaq/diesel.htm)
ARB: eff. 2007-2010
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/onroadhd/onroadhd.htm) / Creates opportunities for PM & NOx controls, crankcase emission controls on diesels; catalyst and engine/fuel controls on gasoline and alternative fuel engines; opportunities for OBD technologies (post 2010) / Actions
Support the rule, technology reviews will continue
1. TS&I
2. APBF-DEC
3.EPA in-house test
Market Data
Est. U.S. Sales in 2003
LHD 328,066
MHD 164,031
HHD 257,765 / 1. NOx durability data (may need MECA test program)
2. Common industry filter maintenance practices
3. Filter durability data / EPA 2007 implementation appears on track
Technological feasibility important for 2010 standards, NTE & OBD critical
ATA will could seek delays in 2010 implementation / EU, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, Korea, and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, CMAJ, and AFNCCAC
2. Clean Fuels and Vehicles Partnership (CFVP)
3. AVECC 2003
/ North America / Other Countries/Regions /
Regulatory Item/
Status / Impact/
Priority / Current MECA Actions / Additional Actions to Consider / Likelihood/
Threats / Other Countries/
Regions Impacted by 2005/2010 / Current MECA Actions / Additional Actions to Consider /
Off-Road Engines
Nonroad CI Engines
EPA: final 2004; eff. 2008-2015
(www.epa.gov/otaq/equip-hd.htm)
ARB: followed EPA in 2004
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/offroad/orcomp/orcomp.htm) / Creates opportunities for PM, NOx controls, crankcase emission controls,
engine/fuel controls, OBD technologies on diesel/alt. fuels / Actions
Support the rulemaking
1. TS&I
2. Nonroad CI White Paper (WP)
3. EPA/MECA DOC test program

Market Data

EPA estimates >800,000 engines sold annually in N.A. / Small Engine
Adv. PM/NOx will be subject of 2007 technology review – need inputs on technology options for these small engines / Currently, a strong rule has been adopted; legislative/industry interference is likely; on-road experience will impact rule; technology review targeted for 2007 / EU, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, Korea, and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, and AFNCCAC
2. Clean Fuels and Vehicles Partnership (CFVP)
3. AVECC 2003
4. Nonroad CI WP
Nonroad SI Engines >25 hp
EPA: eff. 2004-2007
(www.epa.gov/otaq/largesi.htm)
ARB: proposal 2005;
likely final 2005
eff. 2007-2016
retrofit: 2005
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/offroad/orspark/orspark.htm) / Creates opportunities for three-way catalyst, engine/fuel management, evaporative emission technology
ARB proposal includes low emission stds. for new lift trucks & retrofits
EPA may follow ARB’s lead for future low emission stds. / Actions
Support the rulemaking

1. TS&I WP

Market Data
EPA estimates annual U.S. sales at approximately 150,000 units (ca. 40,000 fork lifts in CA) / 1. Nonroad SI Engine WP / Standards for new engines appear secure; support will be needed for ARB retrofit rule / EU, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, Australia, and Korea / 1. Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, CMAJ, and AFNCCAC
2. CFVP
3. Nonroad SI WP / 1. Nonroad SI Engine WP
2 Potential propane lift-truck test program
Recreational SI Engines
EPA: eff. 2006-2012
(www.epa.gov/otaq/recveh.htm)
ARB: eff. 2002-2006
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/offroad/orrec/orrec.htm) / Creates opportunities for engine/fuel management technology, but only limited opportunities for catalyst technology
EPA technology review in 2004-05 due to Bond Amend. / Actions
Encourage tighter standards
1. TS&I
Market Data
Est. U.S. sales in 2001
O/R motorcycles --
195,000
ATVs -- 880,000
Snowmobiles –
228,000 / 1. ATV test program
2 Nonroad SI WP / Standards appear secure; prospects for tighter standards uncertain / EU / 1. Coordination with AECC / 1. ATV test program
2. Nonroad SI WP
Recreational SI
Marine Engines
EPA: eff. 2007-2009 (www.epa.gov/taq/marinesi.htm)
ARB: eff. 2003-2009
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/marine/marine.htm) / Catalyst technology and fuel management systems are options for meeting the standards, esp. more stringent ARB standards that are phased in 2007-2009; ARB considering another phase of tighter stds. for outboards
EPA considering further tightening on outboards that could include catalyst opportunities / Actions
Encourage ARB and EPA to tighten existing standards
1. TS&I
Market Data
Estimated U.S. sales in 2000
Outboards – 241,000
Personal watercraft – 92,000 / 1.  Marine SI test program
2.  Marine SI WP / Standards appear secure; prospects for tighter standards uncertain. / EU / 1. Coordination with AECC / 1. Marine SI test program
2. Marine SI WP
/ North America / Other Countries/Regions /
Regulatory Item/
Status / Impact/
Priority / Current MECA Actions / Additional Actions to Consider / Likelihood/
Threats / Other Countries/
Regions Impacted by 2005/2010 / Current MECA Actions / Additional Actions Consider /
Nonroad SI Engines
<25 hp
EPA: eff. 2002-2008
New proposal: 2005
(www.epa.gov/otaq/equip-ld.htm)
ARB: eff. 2002-2008
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/offroad/sore/sore.htm) / ARB Phase III standards for <25 hp NHH engines will create opportunities for catalyst and fuel/engine management technologies and evaporative controls.
EPA & ARB standards for HH engines creates a market opportunity for catalyst and fuel/management technologies / Actions
Support ARB non-handheld engine rulemaking
Encourage EPA to harmonize
1. TS&I
2. SORE test program
Market Data
Estimated U.S. sale in 2001
Handheld – 9.6 million
Non-handheld – 15 million / 1. Nonroad SI WP / Bond amendment forces EPA to develop new proposed federal standards by the end of 2004 and finalize by end 2005 (some delays likely) / EU / 1. Coordination with AECC
2. SORE test program / 1. Nonroad SI WP
Marine SI Sterndrive
EPA: proposal late 2005; likely final 2006
(www.epa.gov/otaq/marinesi.htm)
ARB: eff. 2003-2009
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/marine/marine.htm) / ARB stds. create opportunities for catalyst-based technologies, engine/fuel management, & OBD technologies; EPA to follow ARB lead with delayed implementation / Actions
Support EPA rulemaking
1. TS&I
2. ARB/EPA test program
Market Data
Estimated U.S. sales in 2004 –
Sterndrive & Inboard combined 140,000 engines, V6 & V8s / 1. Nonroad SI WP / Key is demonstration of technological feasibility; freshwater test complete and successful for TWCs; saltwater testing to follow in 2005; ARB may opt for 100% implementation in 2008 / EU / 1. Coordination with AECC
2. ARB test program / 1. Nonroad SI WP
Recreational CI Marine
EPA: eff. 2004-2009; new proposal in 2006 with commercial marine; final likely in 2007
(www.epa.gov/otaq/marine.htm) / Current standards do not create opportunities for emission control technology. Next round of EPA proposals likely to include PM and NOx control from catalysts / Actions
Support tightening existing standards
1. TS&I
Market Data
Estimated U.S. inboard boats (SI&CI) sales in 2002 – 20,800 / Likely to be included in EPA’s larger commercial marine rulemaking process / EU / 1. Coordination with AECC
Commercial CI Marine
EPA: proposal 2006; final likely in 2007
(www.epa.gov/otaq/marine.htm)
ARB: proposal 2006
(www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/offroad/marinevess/marinevess.htm) / EPA will focus on new vessels and may create opportunities for emission control technologies
ARB rule will focus on both new and existing vessels and is expected to create opportunities for PM and NOx controls / Actions
Support rulemakings
1. TS&I
Market Data
TBD / Reasonable prospects, particularly in California, for advanced technologies on some marine applications
EPA issued ANPRM in 2004 / EU and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC and CMAJ

Locomotives

EPA: eff. 2001-2005;
new proposal in 2006; likely final in 2007
(www.epa.gov/otaq/locomotv.htm) / Existing standards do not create opportunities for emission control technology
EPA likely to target use of catalysts for PM & NOx control in future NPRM / Support tighter standards for new locomotives and retrofit of existing locomotives
1. TS&I
2. Locomotive design study with EPA (2005)
Market Data
ca. 800 new & 1600 rebuilds in U.S. annually / 1. Locomotive demonstration test program? / Tighter standards probable, ANPRM in 2004; retrofits a possibility
Expect strong pushback from industry for use of catalysts / EU, Japan, China, India, and Korea / 1. Coordination with AECC, ECMA, CVEC, and CMAJ

Diesel Retrofit

EPA: in effect
(www.epa.gov/otaq/retrofit/index.htm & www.cleanfleetsusa.org/index.html)
ARB (fleet rules):
proposals
2003-2007
(www.arb.ca.gov/diesel/dieselrrp.htm)
NYC adopted mandatory retrofit rules in 2003 & 2005
www.ci.nyc.ny.us/html/dep/) / EPA (voluntary) and ARB (mandatory) programs will create opportunities for PM and NOx control technologies; other mandatory programs likely in non-attainment regions (e.g., Texas, Northeast); NYC expanded mandatory retrofits beyond construction equip. to all diesel vehicles, refuse haulers, school buses, & sight-seeing buses in 2005 / Actions
Support programs & promote projects
1. TS&I
2. IDRAC Comm.
3. Retrofit WP
4. School bus, other EPA initiatives & workgroups
Market Data
11-12 million in-use diesel engines nationwide (ca. 1.2 million in CA) / Growing interest in retrofit programs – issue will be funding; warranty, NO2 emissions are issues in Calif.; EPA holds conference in DC on June 3-4, 2004 to expand program interest beyond school buses (e.g., freight, ports, construction) / European Union (EU), Mexico (EPA transit project in Mexico City), Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Korea, Thailand (World Bank, US AID project in Bangkok), Taiwan, Australia and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, CMAJ, and AFNCCAC
2. Clean Fuels and Vehicles Partnership (CFVP)
3. AVECC 2003
/ North America / Other Countries/Regions /
Regulatory Item/
Status / Impact/
Priority / Current MECA Actions / Additional Actions to Consider / Likelihood/
Threats / Other Countries/
Regions Impacted by 2005/2010 / Current MECA Actions / Additional Actions to Consider /
Fuels

Gasoline Sulfur

EPA: eff. 2004-2007
(www.epa.gov/otaq/tr2home.htm)
ARB: eff . 2004
(www.arb.ca.gov/cbg/cbg.htm) / EPA and ARB rules will enable the use of advanced emission control technology
ARB may consider Phase III reform. gas with even lower S limits / Support rules
1. TS&I / Appears secure / European Union (EU), Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Australia and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, CMAJ, and AFNCCAC
2. Clean Fuels and Vehicles Partnership (CFVP)
3. AVECC 2003
Diesel Sulfur On-Road (<15 ppm)
EPA: eff. 2006-2009
(www.epa.gov/otaq/diesel.htm)
ARB: eff. 2006
(www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/diesel/diesel.htm) / EPA and ARB rules will enable the use of advanced emission control technology / Support the rule
1. TS&I / 15 ppm level appears secure; oil industry may seek delays through Congress or the Bush Administration
Pipeline system contamination an issue / European Union (EU), Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Australia and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, CMAJ, and AFNCCAC
2. Clean Fuels and Vehicles Partnership (CFVP)
3. AVECC 2003
Diesel Sulfur Off-Road (<15 ppm)
EPA: eff. 2010; 2012 for marine & locomotive
(www.epa.gov/otaq/equip-hd.htm)
ARB: eff. 2006; 2007 for marine and locomotive
(www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/diesel/diesel.htm) / EPA and ARB rules will enable the use of advanced emission control technology / Support the ARB rule and the EPA rulemaking
1. TS&I
2. Nonroad CI WP / Oil industry appears ready to accept 15 ppm limit, but may fight EPA on timing / European Union (EU), Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Australia and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC, CVEC, ECMA (India), AFEEVAS, CMAJ, and AFNCCAC
2. Clean Fuels and Vehicles Partnership (CFVP)
3. AVECC 2003
Miscellaneous
Mobile Source Toxics

EPA: study 2004-05; proposal due in 2006

(www.epa.gov/otaq/toxics.htm) / Current EPA focus in 3 areas: fuel (national benzene limits), gaoline fuel cans (likely to adopt CA stds.), and cold ambient HC limits for light-duty vehicles (likely met thru engine calibration) / Support evaluation of mobile source toxic control
1. TS&I / EPA seems to be leaning away from setting toxics standards since Tier 2 and the HDE standards for HC and PM will result in significant reductions in toxic emissions as well. / EU and Japan / 1. Coordination with AECC and CMAJ


Key to Acronyms and Abbreviations