List of scenarios concerning

„Resource Use, Resource Productivity, Dematerialisation“

Philipp Schuster, 2006-11-02

I) Economy Wide Scenarios:

  • MEA (Milenium Ecosystem Assessment), Steve R.Carpenter, Prabhu L.Pingali, Elena M.Bennett, Monika B.Zurek, (2005)Millenium Assessment Steering Committee, ISLAND PRESS, Available:
  • European environment outlook, EEA Report (2005) Stéphane Isoard Thomas Henrichs, Teresa Ribeiro and Jock Martin, Available at:
  • FORESIGHT - Intelligent Infrastructure Futures- The Scenarios towards 2055 by Andrew Curry, Tony Hodgson, Rachel Kelnar, Alister Wilson, Office of Science and Technology (UK),first published January 2006.Available at:
  • The Great Transition (2002),Raskin, Banuri, Gallopín, Gutman, Al Hammond, Kates, Swart, Global Scenario Group, Available at:
  • Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability(1998) Raskin, Gallopin, Gutman, Al Hammond, Swart,Global Scenario Group, Available at:
  • Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice (1997) Gallopin, Al Hammond, Raskin, Rob Swart, Global Scenario Group, Available at:
  • Which world? Global destinations, regional choice (1998) Allen and Hammond
  • Limits to Growth-A 30 year Update (2004), Meadows, Randers, Meadows, Chelsea Green Publishing
  • Resource use scenarios for Europe in 2020 (2004) Giljum, Hammer, Hinterberger, SERI Studies, Mosus Project
  • Outlook for waste and Material flows; Baseline and alternative scenarios (2005), Mette Skovgaard and Stephan Moll, ETC/RVM Available at :

2) Construction sector scenarios (high, buildings):

  • Analyse, Bewertung und Managment von Roh-und Baustoffströmen in Bayern (2005) Dr.Gabrielle Weber-Blaschke and Prof.Dr.-Ing.Martin Faulstich, TU München, available at:
  • Gebäudesanierung- eine Chance für Klima und Beschäftigung (1999), Hanke, Langrock, Lechtenböhmer, Liedtke, Orbach, Ritthoff, Spies-Wallbaum, Studie im Auftrag der IG Bauen-Agrar-Umwelt und Greenpeace e.V.; berarbeitet vom Wuppertal Institut für Klima,Umwelt, Energie
  • Resource use scenarios for Europe in 2020 (2004) Giljum, Hammer, Hinterberger, SERI Studies, Mosus Project
  • Nachhaltige Entwicklung in Deutschland : die Zukunft dauerhaft umweltgerecht gestalten ( 2002) Hans Jürgen Nantke, short version on the internet available:
  • Nachhaltiges Bauen und Wohnen in Deutschland (2004) Buchert et al., Ökoinstitut/UBA Available at:

3) Manufacturing Industry/other industries scenarios:

  • The Future of Manufacturing in Europe 2015-2020; The Challenge for Sustainability (2003) Geyer, Scapolo, Boden, Döry, Ducatel,Institute of prospective technologies, available at:
  • Werkstoffeffizienz: Einsparpotenziale bei Herstellung und Verwendung energieintensiver Grundstoffe(2004) Eberhard Jochem et al., Frauenhofer Institut available at:

4) Waste Managment scenarios:

  • Kreislaufwirtschaft mit Produkten aus nachwachsenden Rohstoffen (2003)M.Piringer, T.Fischer,Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Innovation und Technologie (bmvit) Available at:

5) Agriculture scenarios:

  • Landwirtschaft 2015; Perspektiven und Anforderungen aus Sicht des Naturschutzes, (2006), Dr.Rainer Oppermann , NABU-Naturschutzbund Deutschland e.V. available at:
  • Resource use scenarios for Europe in 2020 (2004) Giljum, Hammer, Hinterberger, SERI Studies, Mosus Project
  • Nachhaltige Entwicklung in Deutschland : die Zukunft dauerhaft umweltgerecht gestalten ( 2002) Hans Jürgen Nantke,short version on the internet available:
  • New Risks and Opportunities for food security; Scenario Analysis for 2015 and 2050 (2005) von Braun et al., International Food Policy Research Institute, available at:
  • Changing agricultural production and the natural resource base: three long-term scenarios for land use (Australia) (2000) Dunlop, Foran, Poldy, Resource Futures Program, Available at:
  • Nachhaltige Nahrungsmittelproduktion: Szenarien und Prognosen für die Landwirtschaft bis 2030 - Handlungsbedarf und Langfriststrategien für die Umweltpolitik (2002), Dr. Karlheinz Knickel, available at:
  • Ground for choices:Four perspectives for rural areas in the European Community, van Vert (1992):Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy. (Old paper/not directly linked to ressource productivity!!!)

Name: / „MEA“ Milenium Ecosystem Assessment
Author / Steve R.Carpenter, Prabhu L.Pingali, Elena M.Bennett, Monika B.Zurek
Type of analysis and scenario: / -forecasting
-alternative
-quantitative analysis
Methodology and Structure of the scenarios:
Two kinds of transitions (pathways to future)
1)increasingly globalized world
2)increasingly regionalized world
Two different approaches for governance and policies related to ecosystems and their services:
1)Management of ecosystems is reactive, i.e. most problems are addressed only after they become obvious
2)Managment of ecoystems is proactive, i.e. policies deliberately seek to maintain ecosystems services for the long run
In total four Scenarios:
1)Global Orchestration: socially conscious globalization, with emphasis on equity, economic growth and public goods and with a reactive approach to ecosystems
2)Order from Strength: regionalized world, with emphasis on security and economic growth and with a reactive approach to ecosystems
3)Adapting mosaic: regionalized world, with emphasis on proactive managment of ecosystems, local adaption, and flexible governance
4)TechnoGarden: globalized world, with an emphasis on using technology to achieve environmental outcomes and with a proactive approach to ecosystems
But: No business as usual scenario, no best or worst path, the sceanarios illustrate choices and trade-offs
Model(s) used: / -IMAGE
-IMPACT
-WaterGap
-AIM
-Ecopath/Ecoism
Data used: / Various sources
Temporal scope: / 2000-2100 (stepwise)
Spatial scope / Global, regional, national and local
Study subject / Economy wide
Guiding questions/ objectives: / Guiding Questions:
-What are the current condition and trends of ecosystems, ecosystem services and the consequent changes in human well-being?
-What are the plausible future changes in ecosystems and their ecosystem services and the consequent changes in human well being?
-What can be done to enhance well-being and conserve ecosystems?
-What are the strengths and weaknesses of response options that can be considered to realize or avoid specific futures?
-What are the key uncertainties that hinder effective decision-making concerning ecosystems?
-What tools and methodologies used in the Millenium Assessment can strengthen capacity to assess ecosystems, the services they provide, their impact on human well-being, and the strenghts and weaknesses of response options?
Brief Summary: / The Global Orchestration
-A globally connected society
-the policy reform focuses on global trade and economic liberalization
-the creation of markets allows equitable participation and provide equitable access to goods and services
-all supranational instituions are well placed to deal with global environmental problems such as climate change and fisheries
-the reactive approach makes people vulnarable to surprises arising from delayed action
-the growing economies, the expansion of education, and the growth of the middle class leads to demand for cleaner cities, less pollution, and a more „beautifull environment“
-changes in global consumption patterns occur
-there is a boosting demand for ecosystem services
-less forest decline occurs
-the global economic expansion expropriates or degrades many of the ecoystem services poor people, once dependend on, for their survival
-an increasing number of people are affetcted by the loss of basic ecosystems services essential for human life
-for the poorer ones: loss of potable water supplies, crop failures, floods, species invasions, and outbreaks of environmental pathogens
The Order from Strength
-a regionalized and fragmented world
-nations will look after their own interests
-the movement of goods, people, and information is strongly reguated and policed
-trade is restricted, large amounts of money are invested in security systems
-agreements on global climate change, international fisheries, and the trade in endangered species are only weakly and haphazardly implemented
-an increasing gap between rich and poor persists
-the natural resource-intensive industries are moved from wealthier nations to poorer and less powerful ones
-ecosystems become more vulnarable, fragile and variable in the Order from Strength scenario
Adapting Mosaic
-hundreds of regional ecosystems are the focus of political and economic activity
-a rise of local ecosystem managment and the strengthening of local institutions occurs
-an improving knowledge about ecosystem functioning and managment is available
-but there persists a great variation among nations and regions in styles of governance
-and thus a great diversity exists in the outcome
-the focus on local governance leads to some failures in managing the global commons
-finally the communities slowly realize that they cannot manage their local areas and they begin to develop networks among communities
The TechnoGarden:
-a globally connected world strongly relying on technology and highly managed, often engineered ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services
-there is overall efficiency of ecosystem service provisions
-prevailing technology and market-oriented institutional reform
-expansion of property rights to ecosystem services occurs
-investments in green technology are taken
-a focusing on the multifunctional aspects of agriculture and a global reduction of agriculturral subsidies and trade barriers
-the farmes are encouraged to produce a variety of ecological services rather than simply maximizing food production
-new markets for ecosystem services grow
-the „environmental entrepreneurship“ expands
-innovative capacity expands quickly in lower income nations
-while the provision of basic ecosystem services improves the well being of the world´s poor, the reliability of the services, especially in urban areas, is increasing criticaly and increasingly difficult to ensure
-reliance on technoligical solutions sometimes creates new problems and vulnarabilities
-costs of managing the environment are continually rising
Reference / Steve R.Carpenter, Prabhu L.Pingali, Elena M.Bennett, Monika B.Zurek, (2005)„MEA“ Milenium Ecosystem Assessment, Millenium Assessment Steering Committee, ISLAND PRESS
Available:
Name: / Analyse, Bewertung und Managment von Roh-und Baustoffströmen in Bayern (analysis, assessment and managment of raw material and construction mineral flows in Bavaria)
Author / Dr.Gabrielle Weber-Blaschke
and Prof.Dr.-Ing.Martin Faulstich
Type of analysis and scenario / -Quantitative
-Baseline and alternative scenarios
In total Seven Scenarios:
-positive extreme scenario
-negative extreme scenario
-trend scenario
-wood scenario
-low energy house scenario
-Energiesparverordnung (EnEV) scenario
-Concrete recycling scenario
Note:
„Extreme“ means that all circumstance are changed. Whereas „positive“ and „negative“ means that the circumstances have extremely negative or positve trends in development. In the trend scenario the current tendencies are projected into the future. Within the other scenarios only one circumstance is changed in order to asses the impact of this particular circumstance
Model(s) used: / Not explicitely mentioned
Data used: / Various sources
Time scale: / 2002-2020
Spatial: / Bavaria
Scope: / Construction sector (high), buildings, dwellings
Guiding questions/ objectives: / Objectives of the whole study are:
-To find robust data for Material flow balances in the bavarian construction sector
-To analyse construction materials flows to derive options for a sustainable managment in the construction sector
-How can the aims of the AGENDA 21 in Baveria be satisfied?
-To create scenarios for the use of raw material and construction minerals
-To make an assessment of the environmental impacts of the use of construction minerals
-To develop strategies how to achieve sustainable material flows in the construction sector
Key Assumptions: / -decrease of population in bavaria will take place in the future
-for the assessment of future demand for dwellings 12 mio imhabitants were assumed
-still a higher demand for dwellings is assumed because the household size is still declining until 2020 (from 2.19 persons per houshold in 2002 to 2.0 in 2020)
-estimated dwellings stocks in 2020 of 3.000.000 with an average of two dwellings per building
-the rate of outflow of the actual dwellings stock of 0,3-0,5% leads to a stock of available residential buildings of 2.610.424
-the renovation rate in the nex 20 years: almost 16% of all dwellings has to berenovated; for bavaria this means an average of 23.204 buildings per year
-increase in the living area per meter squared from 42 meter squared per inhabitant to 48 meters squared
-rate of new buildings changes fot the two variants: Variant I 50%, Variant II 25%
-Share of wood as construction mineral: doubling from 5% to 10%
-Use of recycled concrete: Increase in the rate of substitution from 0% to 5%
-Low energy housing (new buildings): increase in the share from 11% to 50%
-Demand for thermal renovation (after EnEV): buildings from the 50s, 60s and 70s will be renovated through increase in the demand for insulation material
Results are given for: / -raw materials
-construction minerals
-insulation materials
Brief Summary: / Scenario: Demand for raw and construction materials in Bavaria
Two variants of the scenario:
I)share of new buildings: 50% of the additional demand for dwellings: 194.788 new dwellings have to be build
II)share of new builidings of 25%: 97.394 new dwellings
In total seven scenarios:
-positive extreme scenario
-negative extreme scenario (extreme means all basic conditions are changed)
-trend scenario
-wood scenario
-low energy house scenario
-Energiesparverordnung (EnEV) scenario
-Concrete recycling scenario
Results detailed tables in the appendix (B-10 following)!!!
Main results:
-concerning the consumption of mineral raw materials as well for the variant I and the variant II one can notice a significant decrease of total demand for the year 2020
-the demand for construction minerals is clearly dependent from the fact of how many new buildings are build and how many are renovated
-the demand for non mineral raw materials will decrease because of the low demand for dwellings (except for the positive extreme and the wood scenario)
-the positive extreme scenario is characterised by a high demand for wood; the demand for insulation material is also the highest for all scenarios beause of the obligatory renovation/insulation (EnEV) demanded by law
-for the variant I (50% new buildings) the most significant differences are notable between the scenarios
-the positive extreme scenario has the lowest use of mineral raw materials
-the results from the different scenarios show a visiable decrease of resource use for the construction sector
Reference / Dr.Gabrielle Weber-Blaschke and Prof.Dr.-Ing.Martin Faulstich (2005)
„Analyse, Bewertung und Managment von Roh-und Baustoffströmen in Bayern“ TU München
available at:
Name: / European environment outlook
Author / Stéphane Isoard and Thomas Henrichs, Teresa Ribeiro and Jock Martin
Type of analysis and scenario: / Baseline and Alternative Scenarios
Foucs:
-climate change and air pollution outlooks
-agriculture outlooks
-water stress and water quality outlooks
-waste and material flows outlook
Model(s) used: / Models:
-PRIMES (energy and transport)
-POLES ( energy and transport)
-TIMER/FAIR (GHGs emmissions)
-RAINS (air pollution)
-IMAGE (climate change)
-Euromove (ecosystem composition)
-CAPISM (sectoral model)
-WaterGAP
-Model of nutrients from UWWT plant
-a macroeconometric waste and material flows model
Data used: / Not explicitely mentioned
Temporal scope: / unitl 2020 and beyond
Spatial scope / Europe
Study subject / Economy wide
Guiding questions/ objectives: / The EEA´S state of the environment outlook report draws form a range of supporting subreports and technical documents; this report explores plausible future developments in more detail for Europe and its regions; it also describes alternative scenarios, to help to identify appropriate response options and assess whether Europe is on track to meeting its environmental objectives.
The European environment outlook report of 2005 assesses the environmental consequences of key socio-economic developments in Europe.
The projected developments are discussed in the light of Europe's current policy targets as adopted in the European Union's sustainable development strategy and the sixth environment action programme
Key Assumptions: / -The baseline scenario follows a conventional definition and expands on current expectations regarding economic, secotoral, technological and societal developments, as well as incuding those policies that have been implemented and/or adopted
-The Basline assumptions expand on the socio-economic assumptions developed for the DG TREN baseline projections; plus some additional assumptions
-Alternative scenarios: adressing key uncertainties around economic and technological issues as weel as policy levers, complements the baseline scenario.
Brief Summary/
Methodology: / Meethodology of OUTLOOKS (Baseline scenario) Not for all!
Agriculture outlooks
-agricultural projections that span beyond the 2020s and incorporate the mid term review of the CAP
-covers the EU 15
Model:
-CAPISM (sectoral model)
Output for:
-Livestock, cropping and fertiliser patterns
-Agriculture nutrient balances for N, P, K
-GHG emmissions linked to feritliser and livestocks
Water stress and water quality outlooks:
-integrated assessment of water use and availability
-assessment of the impact of climate change policies in terms of water use and availabilty
-EU-25 wide projections of nutrient discharges after the implementation of the urban waste treatment
Models:
-WaterGAP
-Model of nutrients from UWWT plants
Output for:
-Water Use and water availability and water stress projections
-Waste water quantities and treatment, and nutrient discharges
Waste and material flows outlooks
-EU-wide macro-econometric model adressing material flows and significant waste streams
-Outlooks adressing coupling/decoupling issues
-Assessment of the impact of climate change policies in terms of material flows
Models:
-a macroeconometric waste and material flows model
Output for:
-Waste
-Material flows
Methodology of ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS:
Alternative scenarios to the baseline scenario and policy variants have been analysed, including:
Energy, transport and climate change:
  • „Low GHG emissions scenario“
  • Economic and technological variants (e.g. low economic growth, accelerated penetration of renewables,accelerated decommissioning/adoption of nuclear)
Air pollution:
  • „maximum technically feasible reductions`scenario
Agriculture:
  • Best practices for fertiliser handing
  • Liberalisation of animal product markets- extended CAP reform
  • A stronger EURO
Waste and material flows:
  • „Low GHG emmissions“ scenario (for fossil fuels only; see climate change outlooks)
  • Low economic growth variant
  • Impacts of the landfill directive for biodegradable municipal waste
Water stress:
  • „Low GHG emmissions scenario (see climate change outlooks)
  • Low economic growth variant
  • Non-convergence of per capita water use in the New-10
Main results from outlook and alternative scenarios:
Outlook Agriculture ( projections until 2020)