The Korea Times
2013-04-07 11:14
Lifting dark clouds of war
Ever since Kim Jong-un became North Korea’s leader on Dec. 17, 2011, the clouds of war have reappeared and are becoming darker. The announcement of an agreement on Feb. 29, 2012 between the United States and North Korea in which North Korea agreed to halt its uranium enrichment program in exchange for an initial 240,000 tons of U.S. food aid and improving bilateral relations turned out to be a cover for North Korea’s continuing nuclear program.
On April 10, 2012, satellite images found an excavation at North Korea’s northeast Punggye-ri site, where nuclear tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009. Two days later on April 12, North Korea launched a long-range rocket, although it broke apart before escaping the Earth’s atmosphere. On Dec. 12, 2012, however, North Korea successfully carried out a long-range rocket launch, demonstrating its capability to deliver nuclear weapons as far as the mainland United States. This was followed by the testing of a nuclear bomb on Feb. 12, 2013, cancellation of the 1953 armistice on March 11, and another cut-off of the military hotline on March 28.
What should South Korea do? It all depends on why North Korea is pursuing what appears to be a suicidal confrontation.
One possibility, suggested by many, is that internal politics within the North Korean government is forcing Kim Jong-un to undertake a hardline policy in order to solidify his own power base. If this hypothesis were true, the latest belligerent approach of North Korea is likely to subside.
One tangible sign would be the status of the Gaesong Industrial Complex. So long as North Korea does not close the complex, North Korea should have no further plans to further darken the clouds of war. Note that about 54,000 North Koreans work at the industrial park, contributing $86.4 million annually to the North Korean regime.
Another possibility is that the leaders of North Korea might forget the fact that they started the latest round of provocations, but feel more isolated and scared of the series of responses from South Korea and the U.S. that they have encountered. On June 12, 2012, the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) requested the Pentagon to deploy an aviation battalion of 24 Apache attack helicopters, more Patriot missile interceptors and reconnaissance aircraft. On March 7, 2013, the U.N. Security Council unanimously approved the 4th sanction since the first nuclear test in 2006.
The annual joint military exercises between Korea and the U.S. from March 1 to April 30 included B-52 bombers, and B-2 Stealth bombers (announced on March 29) that could carry nuclear bombs under the radar. On March 22, General Chung Seung-jo of the Korean military and General James D. Thurman of the USFK announced the new Korea-U.S. joint military response plan against North Korea’s military provocation even if it is an isolated one such as the Nov. 23, 2010, bombing of the Yeonpyeong Island.
If this hypothesis of North Korean leaders being scared were true, the latest belligerent approach of North Korea is also likely to subside. So long as North Korea does not close the inter-Korean industrial complex, North Korea should have no further plans to make the war clouds darker.
There is another possibility, however. North Korean leaders might be feeling boxed in with so much pressure from their struggling economy, cooling support from China, and the new and perhaps best president that South Korea has had.
With nuclear weapons in their possession, these leaders might have calculated that this may be the only window of opportunity for them to provoke a war and possibly win it. If this hypothesis were a correct one, North Korean leaders may not even close the industrial complex and rush toward a major confrontation.
What I want to see President Park Geun-hye do ASAP is: not close the complex; visit Beijing and propose to have a humanitarian base at Zhenxing across the Yalu River from Sinuiju; ask President Obama to issue a perfectly clear statement that if North Korea starts a war, it will be over within a week; and propose to North Korea to send K-pops for the young and Lee Mi-ja for the old, while inviting Lee Kyung-sook and North Korean arirang dancers.
In addition, I would like President Park to start a major build-up of military technology, because no one can negotiate for peace from a position of weakness.