L category Report

Chapter Content

May 2015

Chapter listing:

Chapter 1Introduction and Overview

Kambiz Ebrahimi and Simon Bailey,Ultra Light Vehicle Research Group (ULV RG)

Chapter 2Regulation (homologation, legislation) and opportunities for UK

Huw Davies and Paul Nieuwenhuis, Cardiff University

Chapter 3L category segmentation: market and environment

Allan Hutchinson, Oxford Brookes University

Chapter 4Vehicle Safety and Compatibility

Christophe Bastien, Coventry University

Chapter 5Worldwide activity

Simon Bailey and Kambiz Ebrahimi, ULVRG

Chapter 6Consumer adoption

Richard Barrett, Coventry University

Chapter 7Economic potential of the L category vehicle market

Donato Masi, Warwick University

Chapter 8Full energy, local pollution and environmental life cycle assessment

Beatrice Smyth, Mark Kearns and Aoife Foley, Queen’s University Belfast

Chapter 9Summary, Conclusion, Remarks and Recommendations

Kambiz Ebrahimi and Simon Bailey, ULVRG

Chapter 1Introduction and Overview

by Kambiz Ebrahimi and Simon Bailey, ULV RG

1.1Background and history

  • car size, power and mass increasing over the decades
    (status symbols, but younger generation now shunning car ownership)
  • microcar boom of the 1950s-60s (reasons and lessons)
  • L category sub-categories and examples

1.2Reasons / need for this Report

  • what Lcategory vehicles could offer
  • other countries currently ahead of UK

1.3Energy efficiency overview

  • inherent: mass, rolling resistance
  • figures: kWh/100km comparisons with M1 category EVs

1.4Traffic Congestion

  • damage to economy (wasted time) and health (air pollution, stress)
  • amelioration potential via L category

1.5Legislation and incentives (for manufacturers and consumers)

  • emissions, safety
  • L-category excluded from both EU fleet averages and UK “plug-in” consumer grant

1.6Future possibilities

  • new designs
  • autonomous vehicles
  • multi-modal options (e.g. cost-effective motorail; last-mile cargo)

1.7Introducing the subsequent chapters

Chapter 2Regulation (homologation, legislation) and opportunities for UK

by Huw Davies and Paul Nieuwenhuis, Cardiff University

Objective: explain current legislation; then identify areas where the UK could lead.

2.1Purpose of regulation (problem statement)

a)Provide Uniformity / Enhance Safety / Improve Environment

Provide general background to regulatory drivers and change

b)Approaches > self-certification (FMVSS) / type-approval (EU)

Discuss the advantages/disadvantages to the two approaches

c)Application to road transport > visible and/or evidence based problems

Discuss low visibility of L category due to market share and general diversity

2.2Application to L category (determination of key characteristics)

a)Uniformity > Progress to date / Issues

Categorisation of L category vehicles (national and international – problem of diversity)

Regulation on approval and market surveillance of two- or three-wheel vehicles and quadricycles (scope and limits of this regulation)

Identify areas that we wish to cover (three and four wheelers) and those that we would leave (2-wheelers?)

b)Safety > Progress to date / Issues

Accident figures to highlight contribution and also problem areas

Countermeasures to show what can and cannot be realistically achieved (provide direction for regulation convergence)

Regulation differences between M1and L category (show what has been achieved and what can filter down)

c)Environmental > Progress to date / Issues

Contribution to climate change (the role of Lcategory and the present / proposed regulations)

Application of emission standards by sub-category (the role of Lcategory and the present / proposed regulations)

2.3Regulatory convergence (development of assessment methods)

a)Uniformity > discuss the options for convergence and the opportunity for UK

Identification of areas where the present regulation is limited / absent / restrictive (both from a technical and economic perspective) and where the UK can contribute

b)Safety > discuss the options for convergence and the opportunity for UK

Identification of areas where regulation would contribute to improved safety – functional and crashworthiness (based on cost-benefit prioritisation) and how the UK is positioned to lead

c)Environmental > discuss the options for convergence and the opportunity for UK

Identification of areas where regulation would contribute to meeting environmental targets (based on cost-benefit prioritisation) and how the UK is positioned to lead

Chapter 3L category segmentation: market and environment

by Allan Hutchinson, Oxford Brookes University

Objective: to provide a market based perspective on L category segmentation, as this does not necessarily reflect the legal sub-categories. To provide an indication ofwhole lifeenergy.

3.1Introduction

a)Legal v market segmentation and overall potential (urban, leisure)

b)Drivetrain options (IC, electric)

c)Energy and emissions

3.2General market segmentation and commercial applications

a)Stand-on 2-wheelers (leisure, commercial)...... for context

b) Sit-on 2- and 3-wheelers (personal, goods)...... for context

c)Sit-in and covered vehicles (2- and 3- and 4-wheelers)...key focus

d)Others, e.g. for transportation of goods...... key focus

3.3Barriers to widespread adoption of L-cat vehicles for transportation of people and goods

a)Technical – e.g. drivetrain, safety*, cost and public perception**

b)Legal – regulation and standards

c)Institutional – traditional OEM supply, materials, energy supply

d)Incentive requirements – market stimulation

3.4Whole life energy considerations

a)Vehicle materials and manufacturing energies (inc. lightweighting, flexible local manufacturing)

b)In-use energy and emissions (comparisons of pedelecs, motorbikes, quadricycles, micro cars, future vehicles. Specific comparisons with M1 vehicles. Renewable energies)

c)End-of-life, remanufacturing and reuse concepts

d)Overall efficiencies

3.5Summary

* overview only - greater detail in WP4

** overview only - greater detail in WP6

Chapter 4Vehicle Safety and Compatibility

by Christophe Bastien, Coventry University

4.1Accident landscape and emerging safety technologies

4.2Existing safety test assessment

  • legal
  • consumer

4.3Challenges of safety integration

  • phases of integration

4.3Proposal of safety test for three and four-wheeled L category vehicles

Awaiting further details from Christophe.

  • Technical specification and performance
    - speed
    - safety
    - size
    - mass
    - powertrain options
  • Infrastructure requirements
  • What role could L category vehicles play in transport systems of the future?
    e.g. new designs, autonomous vehicles

Chapter 5Worldwide activity

by Simon Bailey and Kambiz Ebrahimi, ULV RG

Objective: to provide an overview of worldwide activity in the Lcategory sector, with comparisons for applicability in the UK.

5.1Evaluation of the following topics:

vehicle types and classification (legal categories, market segmentation)

adoption (price, popularity and uptake) in the local market

is there domestic manufacturing (with export), or import only

market size and reasons (e.g. urban air pollution in China)

technology (level of sophistication)

infrastructure

government support / incentives

5.2Country-specific examples / case studies

USA - Elio three-wheeler for volume production

France - main quadricycle market in Europe; Grenoble trials (Toyota i-Road, COMS)

Germany- government support (eg. IMA Colibri, VW Nils, Visio.M, ICM InnVelo)
- fitness benefits (eg Twike, CarBike)

Netherlands – infrastructure (segregated cycle lanes with light mopeds allowed, electric highway); Canta and other microcars for specific use (domestic law)

Norway and Switzerland – postal services (Paxster and Kyburz)

Poland – several SMEs (including export), plus prototypes

Japan - Kei cars; innovation, both designs/concepts from manufacturers and regulation (ultra small mobility category)

Philippines - large scale adoption proposed

Indonesia (tbc)

China - affordable basic vehicles, many SME manufacturers

India - legal wrangling among rival manufacturers

5.3Insights from SOLUTIONS/UEMI workshop, Brussels, 27/02/15

5.4Matrices/graphs can be created to display data obtained from literature search

vehicle configuration, number of wheels/seats, propulsion, usage, max speed

regional breakdown (Europe, Americas, Asia, etc.), indicating scale of market and manufacturing activity (quantity of vehicles produced/exported)

Chapter 6Consumer adoption

by Richard Barrett, Coventry University

  • customer expectation (eg. managing comparisons with M1 cars)
  • design of desirable L-cat vehicles (styling, convenience, cost)
    including 6 x MDes projects
  • ways to attract end-users (e.g. new drivers before they start using M1);
    ownership models
  • the extent to which car travel, not public transport, can be replaced by journeys in L-cats
  • market barriers (real and perceived) restricting growth of market in UK
  • culture shift over time, reversing the “arms race” for bigger heavier vehicles

Awaiting confirmation / further details from Richard.

Chapter 7Economic potential of the L category vehicle market

by Donato Masi, Warwick University

Objective: to provide policy makers with an assessment of the economic potential of the
L category vehicle market in the UK. The economic potential is analysed by evaluating the features of the market, the infrastructure needed to compete in this market, and the number of jobs generated based on different scenarios.

7.1Features of the market

  • Data on the current demand
  • World (with emphasis on China and US); EU; UK
  • Forecasts on potential demand, with a particular emphasis on the way in which regulation can modify the demand. Three scenarios (2020, 2025, 2030)
  • World (with emphasis on China and US); EU; UK
  • Profitability of the L category vehiclesrelated products
  • Analysis of prices and costs

7.2Current and needed infrastructure

  • A theoretical analysis of the L category vehicle supply chain (theory, description of the key actors (OEM, logistics, services, …))
  • Focus on OEM (theory)
  • An analysis of the current L category vehicle supply chain (data)
  • World (with emphasis on China and US); EU; UK
  • An analysis of the current OEM involved in the L category vehicle supply chain (data)
  • World; EU; UK
  • Three scenarios (2020, 2025, 2030) on the L category vehicle supply chain based on alternative policies
  • EU; UK
  • Three scenarios (2020, 2025, 2030) on the L category vehicle supply chain based on alternative policies – focus on OEM
  • EU; UK

7.3Economic growth

  • The current impact of the L category vehicle industry on GDP
  • Forecast on the impact of the L category vehicle industry on GDP
  • Current jobs generated by L category vehicle supply chains
  • Jobs generated by L category vehicle supply chains: three scenarios (2020, 2025, 2030)
  • Jobs generated by L category vehicle supply chains in manufacturing industry: three scenarios (2020, 2025, 2030)

Chapter 8Full energy, local pollution and environmental life cycle assessment

by Beatrice Smyth, Mark Kearns and Aoife Foley, Queen’s University Belfast

Objective: to quantify local pollution, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy savings considering biofuel and electric L category vehicles growth within the framework of the Climate Change Act 2008 and the Energy Act 2013 national energy and GHG emission targets by 2030 and 2050.

Proposed methodology: a bottom-up techno-economic life cycle analysis (LCA) approach using Department for Transport, Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Office for National Statistics statistical datasets to predict possible L category vehicle uptake and development due to trends in technology, economics and policy in order to identify four scenarios (i.e. business-as-usual, green, amber and red).

8.1National statistical data will be gathered and analysed to forecast L-cat vehicles growth up to 2050 with a five year time slice starting in 2015.

8.2Figures from Cardiff, Oxford Brookes, Coventry and Warwick will be analysed and collated to develop the four scenarios.

8.3Datasets from 8.1 and 8.2 will be synchronised and benchmarked.

8.4The four scenarios will be analysed to estimate the net greenhouse gas emissions and energy savings considering biofuel and electric L category vehicles.

8.5The results of the preliminary investigation will be examined and discussed within the framework of the Climate Change Act 2008 and the Energy Act 2013, national energy, local pollution and GHG targets by 2030 and 2050.

Narrative: a general state-of-the-art review focusing on globalL category vehicle energy and emissions case studies and activity, methodology, results and analysis, discussion, conclusion and limitations and issues of the model, summary.

Chapter 9Summary, Conclusion, Remarks and Recommendations

by Kambiz Ebrahimi and Simon Bailey

To be written on completion of the Report.

As appropriate: recommendations for further work to develop the supply and demand for L category vehicles in the UK (including options for future engagement with consumers, fleet operators, policy makers, cleantech investors and suitable others). Where significant adverse potential impacts and risk factors are identified, suggestions for mitigating actions should be provided.

Additional References / Further Reading

As required. Individual chapter references can be included at the end of each chapter.

Appendices

As required.

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