Itu Urges Support for New Convention on Emergency Telecommunicatons at Icet-98

THE YEAR 2000: IS AFRICA PREPARED FOR THE INVASION OF THE MILLENIUM BUG?

Some may refer to it as a technological Armageddon, but the computer-based system failure commonly referred to as the Millennium Bug or y2K Virus may prove to be just another bump in the road as Africa moves further along the path of global telecommunications development. That is, however, if governments and private sector organizations act now to adequately prepare for the arrival of this unwanted visitor on midnight, January 1st, 2000. The Gartner Group has estimated “the total worldwide costs of fixing the problem, including the cost of new upgraded software, will be between $300 and $600 billion” with nearly 20% of those costs related to communications systems alone.

“Thirty percent of all companies have not started dealing with the year 2000 problem,” says a study by the group on how companies worldwide are dealing with the problem. In addition, the Gartner Group found that “small companies, health care organizations, educational institutions, and many companies in 30 percent of the world’s countries are at a high risk of seeing year 2000 misssion-critical failures due to a lack of readiness.” Joel C. Wllemssen, Director of the United States General Accounting Office Information Management Division says “the Year 2000 readiness of international telecommunications networks and carriers is clearly an area of concern. All sectors of the global economy depend upon reliable communications networks to handle billions of dollars in financial transactions.” He believes the exchange of information amongst nations would allow “government and the private sector to identify troubled regions and develop contingency plans for ensuring the continuity of vital telecommunications services.”

However, according to Ed Yardeni, Chief Economist for Deutsche Morgan Grenfell and a y2K analyst, “a lot of countries are toast and don’t even know it yet. Too many aren’t getting any information.” Is Africa’s nations ready for y2k’s arrival? Before that question can be answered, one must first understand the genesis of the infamous Millennium Bug.

The Origin of y2K Virus

The Year 2000 Problem was unintentionally created by designers of mainframe computer systems during the 1950s and 60s era. With computer software requiring a cost effective means to store data while preserving limited memory, system designers chose to assign two-digit numerical fields to display month/date/year representations. For example, August 17, 1998 in computer code would be written as 08/17/98.

Unfortunately, the decision to display year fields as two-digit rather than four-digit representations, has proven to be the catalyst for what is now known as y2K. With the turn of the century just around the corner, computers worldwide will be unable to process date-sensitive functions. From mainframes to desktop personal computers, the designation 01/01/00 will be interpreted as January 1, 1900 instead of 2000 if the systems are not upgraded to be Year 2000 compliant. Many of Africa’s developing nations utilizing these systems will find themselves as victims of Mr. Yardeni’s predictions, unless a plan of action is implemented combat y2K’s threat immediately.

African Nations Go on the Offensive Against the Millennium Bug

Several African countries, particularly South Africa, are initiating plans of action to address the Year 2000 Problem. A nationwide survey by South Africa’s National Year 2000 Decision Support Centre reports “70% of government departments and 90% of large organizations anticipated completing their conversions on time.” According to Jay Naidoo, Minister for Post, Telecommunications and Broadcasting, "the projected national compliance would be between 50% and 60%, with 40% of project work expected to be completed in the last two quarters of 1999 for those departments that have already begun their conversion programmes.”

Communications Minister Jay Naidoo.

Photo: courtesy of Mail & Gaurdian.

Additionally, South Africa’s government recently approved the National Y2K Centre’s action plan to ensure the nation’s readiness for the Year 2000 Problem. The Y2K Centre’s survey also identifies 68 “mission-critical” government systems from pensions to drought disaster relief as critical targets for compliance. “A six-phase action plan to ensure total readiness by the Year 2000 has been drawn up for each of these mission-critical systems.,” says Naidoo. In describing the action plan, Naidoo says “the phases cover activities such as assessment and analysis planning to integration and testing and implementation under the guidance of the National Y2K Centre will begin immediately.” Rated by the Gartner Group and Great Britain’s Action 2000 Task Team as one of the top five Y2K government bodies in the world, South Africa’s National Y2K Centre has “received strong private sector co-operation and support” according to Naidoo.

Although government and larger private sector organizations appear to be well equipped to handle y2K issues, Mohamed Madhi, chief executive of the National Y2k Centre believes that “small and medium enterprises in most cases are not too aware of the problem and don’t have the resources to deal with it.” However, Madhi insists that steps can be taken to ensure companies both large and small will survive the crisis.

“Something has to be done. Having an important initiative launched is better than doing nothing or crying there’s no time. I feel there is still time, as long as companies provide adequate resources allocated to the problem,” says Mahdi. Naidoo agrees with Mahdi’s assessment of the Y2K issue. “This phenomenon should be countered at all costs because the price to be paid by the country will be astronomical and government treats this matter as a national priority.” Naidoo also stresses that “although we have started to address this Year 2000 problem late, we should not panic. Joint action between the public and private sector will avert any undue chaos.”

The U. N. and World Bank offer Support

Tony Keyes, author of two books on the Year 2000 Problem, contends “40% of the world’s gross domestic product comes from developing countries. He believes “the supply of strategic raw materials could substantially be interrupted” if the Y2K challenge goes unanswered. With such global interests at stake, organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank are moving to support Africa’s efforts to become compliant by the year 2000. According to an informal survey by the World Bank “18 of 127 countries (14 percent) had a national Year 2000 program; 28 countries (22 percent) report working on the problem; and 16 countries (13 percent) report only awareness of the issue.” In addition to its website devoted to Y2K issues, the Bank intends to “appoint a field Year 2000 representative for each country” to counter these distressing figures. To help raise awareness in developing countries of the Millennium Bug, the Bank’s Information for Development Program (infoDev) recently launched a $16.7 million Y2K initiative.

According to a statement by World Bank officials, “infoDev will disseminate a tool kit for key stakeholders in developing countries on how to deal with the Y2K problem. The strategy includes the provision of technical assistance to build national plans for addressing the problem, as well as the organization of regional workshops. Such plans will identify the highest priority problems from an economic and a social perspective, and assist in providing targeted solutions.” Officials from the World Bank, United States General Accounting Office (GAO) and Potomac Electric Power Company (PepCo) have also participated in videoconferences concerning Y2K issues with government, public and private sector organizations from Kenya, Uganda, Zambia, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Mozambique. “It’s meant to raise awareness among developing countries, especially in Africa, about the millennium bug. We want to alert countries that don’t have a plan for addressing the problem, countries that are in denial, to help them see how serious the problem is and how they can remedy it,” says EDI Distance Learning consultant and videoconference co-organizer, Prita Chathoth. As Mohamed Muhsin, Chief Information Officer for the World Bank commented to the audience during the first in a series of videoconferences on the Y2K issue, “it is incumbent on all
of you and all of us to work together to address this problem.”

From Left to Right: Mohamed Muhsin (ISG), Carlos Braga (infoDev), and Joel Willemssen (GAO). Photo: courtesy of The World Bank.

The United Nations General Assembly, during its 52nd session, adopted a resolution entitled “Global implications of the year 2000 date conversion problem of computers.” Pakistan’s Permanent Representative, Ambassador Ahmad Kamal, introduced the resolution. The resolution requests the UN’s Secretary-General “take steps to ensure that all parts of the United Nations system take measures to ensure that their computers and equipment with embedded microprocessors are year 2000 well before the target date by drawing up a plan of action for the United Nations system.” It also calls upon the Secretary to “monitor funding sources for developing countries and those with economies in transition.” The Economic and Social Council of the UN was tasked by the General Assembly to prepare “guidelines on which Member States will be able to draw in addressing the diverse aspects of the year 2000 problem.” A review and further development of the resolution’s plans has been included in the Assembly’s agenda for the 53rd session.