Item 13 Revenue Annex 3

ANNEX 3

TRAFFORD MBC

Report to:AdSS Directorate Management Team

Date:20 August 2009

Report for: Discussion

Report author: ASS Finance Manager

Report Title

1. Outturn Forecast

1.1The current approved revenue budget for the year is £51.766m.The outturn is £51.852m which is £0.086m over the approved budget.

1.2Appendix 1 details by both department and variance area the forecastoutturn as compared to the approved revenue budget. The main variances are:

• £(0.447)m favourablevariance for Older People services mainly due to slight underspends in residential, daycare and homecare services. We are currently projecting on the clients we have at the moment. Until the Winter months inevitably increase the number of clients, we are unable to estimate the impact of this.
• £0.302madverse variance for Physical Disabilities services. This is due to the shift for domiciliary care from block contracts to spot purchases due to transition to Putting People First.
• £0.152m adversevariance for Physical Disabilities, Equipment and Adaptationsservices. The pressure is arising from demand for minor adaptations and stairlift maintenance and repairs. These services are currently subject to a full review due to be reported shortly.
• £(0.107)m favourable variance for Learning Disabilities from services outside of the Learning Disabilities Pooled Fund.
• £0.126m adverse variance for Mental Healthdue to demand for domiciliary care services.

1. Service carry-forward reserve
2. At the beginning of April 2009 the Directorate had accumulated balances of £(0.273)m carried forward from the previous financial year’s underspends. The Directorate’s budget is demand led. Currently, as outlined in Section 4 below, the impact of the recession is not showing as increased demand for services other than for advice and information. If this situation changes later in the year due to increased demand for services arising from Swine ‘Flu, the recession and excessive winter pressures the Directorate would seek to use the accumulated balance to address the resulting budgetary pressures.

2.2The remaining carry-forward balance at the end of the year after taking into account projects and the outturn position, and for future years after taking into account current budget plans, is:

Balance brought forward 1 April 2009

Planned re-coupment of overspend

Planned use of balances to fund projected overspend

Remaining balance at 31 March 2010

Planned use to support service initiatives or base budget in 2010/11

Remaining balance 31 March 2011

3Management Action and Recommendations

3.1Action will be taken to ensure that any necessary changes to the 2010/11 budget arising from 2009/10 issues are made.

4Impact of Economic Climate

4.1The only service which shows an increase in referrals which is most likely due to the economic situation is Welfare Benefits. Other increases in referrals are more likely due to other issues e.g. demographic changes.

4.2The carers centre and other third sector partners havereported an increase in requests for advice and information and concerns being raised about household income.

4.3We have checked residential care deferred payment agreements and there is no indication of any change in thetrends so far.

4.4At this point it is too early for us to see increases in demand, but we may see it later this year.

5.Performance progress

5.1Performance with Adult Social Services continues well. Some of the key milestones achieved are:

• Adult Social Services has robust arrangements in place to manage winter pressures and any issues arising from Swine Flu.

• Safeguarding vulnerable adults continues to be a priority area. Training on this issue is provided for elected members and has received very positive feedback. Trafford is involved in the Dignity in Care Campaign and we are engaging with the private sector providers to identify and train dignity champions.

• We are working with our partners to refresh the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment and a number of our commissioning strategies.

• The transformation of social services through the implementation of Putting People First is progressing well and all first year milestones have been met.

• We exceeded our target regarding the numbers of people receiving self directed support in 2008/09 and this trend is expected to continue in 2009/10.

• The best value review of community based mental health services is complete and reported within agreed timescales.

• The Healthier Trafford Partnership has been reviewed and re-launched as the Health and Wellbeing Partnership. It will focus on addressing health inequalities in Trafford.

Appendix 1

Period 4Forecasted outturn revenue expenditure and income variances and movements from Period 3 monitoring report

The following tables detail the main variances from the revenue budget to the forecasted outturn, and the movements since the last monitoring report in both Management Accounts (“Budget Book”) format and by cause or area of impact of the variance.

NOTES ON PROJECTED VARIANCES AND PERIOD MOVEMENTS

AdSS1 –Older People £(447)kfavourable

• External Daycare - £(133)kfavourable. The major component relates to an underspend in the Extra Care Housing budget due to delay in implementation of part of the scheme.
• Residential and Nursing Care – £(165)k favourable. An underspend on external provision. This is continuing the trend seen since autumn/winter 2008
• In House Homecare – £(207)k favourable. Homecare provision is provided through in house and external provision. The in house service is underspending as the majority of service provision is through external providers. At this point in time, there is a slight pressure on external homecare which has the potential to increase over the year.

AdSS2 –Physical Disabilities£302kadverse

• Domiciliary Care - £301kadverse. There is an increase in the purchase of spot purchases for care. These are services purchased from the external market, a set “block” level of hours are purchased through a contract achieving efficiencies in the hourly rate charged. When these “block” hours have to be purchased on the “spot” market, it is at a higher hourly rate. The shift from “block” to “spot” is mainly due to the Putting People First Initiative. In the near future, clients will be gradually moving over to PPF Individual Budgets and therefore where block contracts are expiring, we are changing clients to spot purchases in anticipation of the PPF transition. Domiciliary Care is also showing a pressure due to the Council’s drive towards caring for people within their own home rather than in residential care.

AdSS3 – Equipment & Adaptations £152kadverse

• Minor Adaptations/Lift Repairs & Maintenance £232kadverse.A pressure arising from the level of demand for adaptations. This area is the subject of a fundamental review due to be reported shortly.

AdSS4 – Learning Disabilities£(107)k favourable

• Residential Care – £(307)kfavourable .An underspend on external provision.
• Domiciliary Care - £134kadverse. There is an increase in the number of spot purchases for care services.

AdSS5 – Mental Health £126kadverse

• Domiciliary Care - £125kadverse. Agency care services increase due to the increased use of spot contracts.

AdSS6– Operating Costs £106kadverse

• Across the many different services of the directorate, normal operating expenditure is showing anadverse forecasted variance. This is 0.2% of the total budget.