ISDS 361A – 16
Introduction to Probability and Statistics
Fall 2010
Common Body of Knowledge: This course provides a basic understanding of statistical methods and their application to problem solving.
Instructor: Dr. Z. Goldstein
Office Phone: (657) 278 - 2284
Department Phone: (657) 278 - 2221
Office: SGMH 4198
Office hour: T, 9 – 10 a.m.
Meetings: T, R, 1 – 2:15 p.m.
Location: SGMH 2101
Email address:
Website: http://business.fullerton.edu/isds/zgoldstein
Learning supplements
· Text: Statistics for Management and Economics, 8th ed., by Gerald Keller.
Comment: A soft cover reduced version of the text customized for Cal. State Fullerton is available in the bookstore and can be used.
· A Student CD (that comes with the textbook) which includes:
a. “Data Analysis Plus” – an add-in software to Excel, to be installed on your computer.
b. Data files (Excel format) – to be installed on your computer.
· Homework assignments plus solutions (see the website, course home-page).
· Power Point review files on the website, with solution and explanations.
· An office hour at 12:30 p.m. after each optional meeting per request.
· Email.
Grading
· Course average score formula
Course average Score = .9*Exam average + .1*Projects.
Grading chart:
A 90 and above
B 75 - 89
C 60 - 74
D 50 - 59
F below 50
Exams
(1) There are three midterm exams but no final exam.
(2) Midterms are non – cumulative, covering about one third of the course each.
(3) Exams are closed-book!
(4) You may bring photocopies of the necessary tables in the book and
(5) You may bring any number of notes’ sheets, but no solutions.
(6) You may bring a calculator to the exams.
(7) All answers and work are written in a blue book; SCAN-TRON is not needed.
(8) Exam questions will require the use of Excel to help in performing lengthy calculation, and to execute statistical analysis. Much attention will be given to the interpretation of the computational results.
(9) Exams take place in class.
(10) Dates, time, and location:
Midterm 1 – Sept 23, class time in classroom
Midterm 2 – Oct 28, class time in classroom
Midterm 3 – T, Dec 14, 12 noon; classroom
Computer Package
Many of the assignment problems require the use of Excel (available in the school lab).
Instructions for using Excel appear in each chapter of your textbook as appropriate. Also, written instruction for using Excel can be found in the Review problems folder on the CD. Two statistical modules will be used from within excel:
(1) Data Analysis – This is an integral Add-In provided by Microsoft. To bring up Data Analysis click on the “Office Button”, and then click “Excel Options”, “Add Ins”, and make sure “Excel Add-Ins” is selected in the pull-down menu at the bottom of the window. Then Click “Go”, and from the list of add-ins check “Analysis ToolPak”. Click OK. From here on to use Data Analysis click the Data tab, and select Data Analysis at the upper right corner.
(2) Data Analysis Plus – An Add In provided by the text publisher. To install this software follow the instructions on the Student CD that comes with the textbook. More info:
(i) After installation Data Analysis Plus is found in the ‘Tools’ menu for Excel 2003, and under the Add-Ins tab for Excel 2007 . [For your information, Data Analysis Plus is a file called STATS.xls,that is placed inside a folder called XLstart on your computer by the setup program. This folder normally appears in Microsoft Office/Excel/Office11. The setup program on the CD will find it and ask for your approval before installation.]
(ii) You can install the Excel data files used for your homework assignments too. Typically, these files carry the prefix ‘Xr’ (for exercise) followed by the problem number.
Instructor’s comments
Tentative course outline
Topic Reading
Graphs / Numerical measures 2.1 – 2.4, 4.1, 4.2, 4.4
Probability 6.1 – 6.4
Discrete Probability Distribution 7.1
Binomial Distribution 7.4
Normal Distribution 8.1 – 8.2
Exam 1
Sampling distributions 9.1 – 9.3
Introduction to Estimation 10.1 – 10.3
Introduction to Hypothesis testing 11.1 – 11.3
Exam 2
Inference about a Population 12.1 – 12.3
Simple linear regression 16
Multiple linear regression 17+18.2
Chi – square tests 15.1 – 15.4
Exam 3