International Co-Operation in Statistics

STD/HLG(2002)4

1

STD/HLG(2002)4

International co-operation in Statistics

a.Background

International co-operation with non-Members by the OECD

1.From its founding the OECD Member countries recognised a duty to pass on to non-Members their experience in devising economic and social policies conducive to sustainable development.

Up to 1990, the OECD’ s Development Centre was almost entirely responsible for technical co-operation with non-Member countries (including some technical co-operation in economic statistics). The Development Centre worked, and continues to work, mainly with developing countries in Africa, Latin America and South East Asia.

Starting in 1990, technical assistance was offered to transition countries in Central and EasternEurope and the former Soviet Union by OECD Directorates responsible for statistics, economic policy, science and technology, labour and social policy, trade, investment, taxation, energy and agricultural policy.

Since 1995, OECD Directorates have also been providing technical assistance in these topics to non-Member countries in other regions, notably South East Asia, Latin America and the Balkans. Technical co-operation with Central and Eastern Europe is being phased out now that most of these countries are candidates for membership of the EU. Co-operation with countries of the former Soviet Union is continuing though at a lower level, except in the case of Russia which has applied for OECD membership and which continues to receive substantial assistance.

2.Technical co-operation provided by OECD Directorates since 1991 has been funded through, and co-ordinated by, a specially-created body attached to the General Secretariat which reports directly to the Secretary General. This body is now called the Centre for Co-operation with Non-Members (CCNM).

3.In addition to technical co-operation, the OECD fulfils its mandate to promote economic and social development in non-Members by granting them observer status in its Committees. At present around 40 non-Members are observers on one or more policy committee.

Co-operation in statistics

4.The Statistics Directorate (STD) provides nearly all OECD technical assistance in statistics. Assistance provided by other Directorates is limited to infrequent seminars to explain OECD statistical definitions and recommended methodologies regarding educational attainment, energy balances, environmental indicators, foreign direct investment and producer and consumer subsidy equivalents (PSEs and CSEs) for agriculture.

5. Within the Statistics Directorate a separate section carries out the programme of technical co-operation with non-Members. This is currently called the Division for Non-Members (DNM). There is close co-operation between DNM and other parts of the Statistics Directorate; DNM staff carry out tasks for the Directorate as a whole – in PPPs and business tendency surveys for example – while non-DNM staff contribute to DNM workshops – in national accounts and short-term economic statistics for example.

6.The Statistics Directorate’s programme of technical co-operation with non-Members has changed considerably since 1991. The first activity was a major conference on the theme “ Statistics for a Market Economy” which looked at the new kinds of statistics and the new statistical institutions that would be required as countries transited from centrally planned to market economies. Soon afterwards, the various international organisations working with the transition countries – mainly Eurostat, OECD, IMF, World Bank, and UN Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) - agreed on a division of labour as regards statistical subjects. OECD agreed to concentrate on:

national accounts and especially the move to SNA from MPS (Material Product System),

purchasing power parities and

business tendency surveys.

7.These remain the central pillars of the DNM programme but there has been significant change of emphasis. The paragraphs below describe the programme of technical assistance in statistics carried out by DNM during the past three years. Annex 1 contains a more detailed description of the 2002 DNM programme.

Current DNM programme with non-Members

Countries covered

8.There are three country programmes - Russia, China and Ukraine. Technical assistance is provided in the form of workshops and training to staff from these countries on a one-to-one basis. In Ukraine, the programme is confined to PPPs; for China and Russia, technical assistance is provided across several subject areas.

9.All other DNM programmes are organised on a communal basis with statisticians from all countries in the regional group invited to participate.

Commonwealth of Independent States: twelve countries of the former Soviet Union (excluding Baltic States);

Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania;

Balkans: Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Slovenia, Romania, Yugoslavia;

South East Asia: all UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (UN/ESCAP) countries but with the main focus on the eight ASEAN countries plus India;

Latin America: all UN Economic Commission for Latin American and Caribbean (UN/ECLAC) member countries but with the main focus on Brazil, Chile and Argentina.

Subject areas

10.Technical assistance is currently being provided in the following subject areas:

National accounts: the emphasis here is on quarterly national accounts and, in particular, on the estimation of final expenditure on the GDP at current and constant prices. Topics on which advice is commonly sought include the use of short-cut "indicator" methods, seasonal adjustment, aligning quarterly with annual estimates and price indices for deflation of difficult items, such as construction output and non-market services.

Non-observed economy: this topic is closely linked to national accounts since one of the main problem for national accountants in non-Member countries is to bring into their estimates the large volume of economic activities that escape regular statistical observation. DNM has recently published a handbook on Non-Observed Economy (NOE) measurement, which was prepared in collaboration with national statistical agencies and other international organisations.

Business tendency surveys: these surveys have proved to be a very effective means of obtaining information on current economic conditions in countries where the traditional systems of official statistics came under severe strain (nearly to the point of collapse) during the transition process. DNM encourages countries to use the harmonised questionnaires developed by OECD and the European Union in order to enhance the international comparability of results.

Composite leading indicators: the system of leading indicators developed by STD for Member countries uses qualitative data from business tendency surveys together with quantitative statistics to construct synthetic indices that predict movements in the business cycle about six months ahead of time. Now that many non-Member countries conduct business tendency surveys, the OECD leading indicator system can be exported to non-Members.

Purchasing Power Parities: together with Eurostat, the OECD has been compiling PPPs for non-Member countries in Central and Eastern Europe. DNM has extended this programme to the CIS countries and, more recently, to the Balkan area. Apart from the intrinsic interest in PPPs and the price and volume measures that they provide, the PPP programme has been particularly valuable in introducing best practices for the measurement of prices and for expenditure estimates of GDP.

Main Economic Indicators: short-term statistics for 11 non-Members are published in Main Economic Indicators including, where available, quarterly national accounts, industrial production, domestic sales, foreign trade, employment, consumer and producer prices, balance of payments, money supply and interest rates.

Table 1 below shows the subject areas for technical co-operation with non-Member countries and regions.

Co-operation with other international organisations

11.As noted earlier, the international organisations involved in work with transition countries agreed on a division of labour at the beginning of the 1990s. This has continued to the present time with co-ordination effected through ad hoc meetings, the joint presentation of work programmes for the Conference of European Statisticians and informal contacts between staff of the different Secretariats. The organisations mainly concerned here are Eurostat, IMF, World Bank, and the UN/ECE.

Table 1. Subjects covered in countries and regions
Countries and Regions / National
Accounts / Non-
observed
economy / Business
tendency
surveys / Composite leading indicators / Purchasing Power Parities / Main Economic Indicators
Country programmes
Russia / X / X / X / X / X / X
China / X / X / X / X / X
Ukraine / X / X
Regional programmes
CIS / X / X / X / X
Baltics / X / X / X / X
Balkans / X / X / X / X
South East Asia / X / X / X / X
Latin America / X / X

12.When DNM extended its technical co-operation to Asia and Latin America, the Division widened its contacts to include the UN Regional Commissions (UN/ESCAP and UN/ECLAC) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Most OECD workshops in South East Asia and in Latin America are jointly organised, and co-funded, with these organisations. DNM has also organised one workshop together with the Singapore statistics office and the Chief Statistician of Singapore is now seeking to extend co-operation with OECD. Working with regional agencies and national statistical offices in these regions minimises the risk of wasteful duplication.

13.Hosted by the OECD, PARIS21 is a partnership of policymakers, analysts, and statisticians whose objective is to promote evidence-based policymaking and monitoring in developing and transition countries. PARIS21 fosters more effective dialogue among those who produce development statistics and those who use them through facilitating international events, supporting country-based activities, and promoting regional workshops. PARIS21 brings together donors and governments in support of country-owned development strategies, demonstrates the power and use of statistics for policy decisions, mobilises resources to collect the right information for policy making, shares knowledge and fosters co-ordination and builds sustainable statistical capacity, by better use of data as a tool for more effective development.

14.The objectives of PARIS21 and DNM are complementary and staff of both organisations are co-operating to strengthen national statistical systems in non-Member countries.

15.So far as resources allow, DNM staff make themselves available to assist other international organisations in areas where they have a comparative advantage. For example:

as a contribution to the next round of the ICP, the OECD has agreed to a request from the World Bank to co-ordinate work on PPPs for the CIS countries;

a staff member of DNM was recently invited to participate in the IMF mission to China to assist, in the GDDS framework, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics draft metadata and plans for improvement regarding national accounts, indices of industrial production and output indicators for agriculture;

following a request from the IMF, two staff members of DNM advised the research department of the Bank of Lebanon on the construction of an improved composite coincident indicator and revision of its business tendency surveys to conform with international standards.

Co-ordination within OECD

16.DNM recently conducted a survey of statistical co-operation carried out by other Directorates within the OECD. This will provide the first complete picture of OECD statistical co-operation with non-Member economies.

17.Statistics for non-Member countries appear in several OECD statistical publications of other Directorates. At the present time users of OECD statistics might be puzzled at the range of non-Members included and the different practices of the various directorates. Some standardisation might make the Organisation look better organised. The Statistical Policy Group (SPG) recently discussed the possibility of designating a target group of non-Member economies that all Directorates could aim to cover in their statistical publications. The SPG agreed that all Directorates should try to cover the following groups of non-Member countries:

Major economies - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa.

Other economies of Organisation-wide interest - Argentina, Chile, Israel, Singapore and Slovenia.

18.Inclusion of these economies would only be done as resources allow and some Directorates may need to give priority to non-Member economies not included in these two groups if they have special significance in policy areas relevant for their mandate. In addition it should be noted that inclusion in some statistical publications requires close adherence to OECD standards and countries in the two groups above would not be automatically included if they were not able to meet these standards.

b.Recommended actions

Countries covered

18. There will be some change of emphasis in the country/regional coverage of the DNM programme over the next 2 to 3 years:

country programmes with Russia, China and Ukraine are expected to continue at about the current level. All three countries would like expansion of their co-operation with DNM but it is unlikely that there will be any increase in resources.

The regional programme with the CIS will carry on at about the same level provided that continued support is provided from Eurostat and the World Bank.

The regional programme for the Baltic States will be reduced from 2003. To a significant extent this is a reflection of the success of the programme over the last three years. In addition they are EU candidate countries and after joining they will not be eligible for CCNM funded programmes.

The Balkan programme forms a component of the Stability Pact. It is expected to continue at least at its present level. DNM is seeking a major increase in the programme through creation of a three-year Project Post. Potential donors are being consulted.

Nearly half of DNM’s programme for South East Asia is funded by grants from the Japanese Government or by the Asian Development Bank and UN/ESCAP which co-finance OECD workshops in the region. DNM activities in the UN/ESCAP area have won strong support, particularly among the ASEAN group. DNM would like to set up a Pacific Rim Coalition – Japan, Australia, Korea, New Zealand and OECD – to pool financial and human resources for an expanded programme and avoid overlap between the DNM programme and bilateral assistance provided by these countries.

As regards Latin America, there are requests from Argentina, Chile and Brazil for an enlarged programme covering, for example, national accounts and the non-observed economy. This will only be possible either with increased funding from Member countries or with new funding from regional banks or development agencies. DNM staff will explore possibilities in the coming months.

Subject areas

19.Most DNM activities are of an investment nature and it would be foolish to abandon them before they produce useful results. In particular, activities relating to quarterly national accounts, non-observed economy, composite leading indicators and business tendency surveys will need to be continued in most regions for the next two or three years if they are to come to fruition. DNM work on PPPs is an essential component of the next round of the ICP, which is designed to be a truly global comparison. OECD is committed to supporting the PPP programme for the next three years.

20.While much of the existing programme will need to continue, there are also new opportunities to be considered:

the CCNM will be emphasising the theme of governance in its programmes for the next two or three years. This is a broad topic that can profitably embrace statistics, since credible and timely statistics are an essential aid for good government and indispensable for democratic oversight. DNM is proposing to organise a major conference in China on the role of official statistics in improving public and corporate governance. Similar events could be organised in Latin America, South East Asia and the Balkans.

Like OECD Member countries, several non-Members are considering developing monthly GDP estimates. (Russia is already publishing monthly GDP). DNM software developed to produce composite leading indicators can just as easily be used to produce composite coincident indices for GDP. Work on coincident indicators would complement similar experiments under way in several Member countries.

More workshops on measuring the non-observed economy are envisaged following publication of the Handbook on Measuring the Non-Observed Economy. The handbook explains the various techniques available for correcting national accounts but notes that lasting solutions may require fundamental reform of the collection and processing of basic data. Workshops on NOE measurement that addresses basic data problems could be held in several regions.

The coverage of non-Members in Main Economic Indicators will be revised to focus on the countries listed in paragraph 17 above. In addition more use will be made of data collected by Eurostat for its candidate countries to reduce reporting burden and processing costs in DNM.

More use will be made of the OECD website to encourage dialogue with non-Members and make technical documentation more easily accessible to non-Members.

Discussions will continue with PARIS21 to identify joint projects using PARIS21 funding sources and DNM's network of contacts in non-Member countries.