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Inquiry Activity • Paper and Pencil
Chapter 17Fossil Fuel Use
Problem Will fossil fuels run out in the near future?
Background
Nonrenewable Resources
Fossil fuels, such as petroleum, natural gas, and coal, formed hundreds of millions of years ago. They formed from organisms that died and became buried under layers of sediment. Depending on the types of organisms that were buried and the temperature and pressure that those remains experienced, different fossil fuels formed over time. Even if we could recreate the conditions needed to produce new fossil fuels, it would take millions of years for our efforts to pay off. Because fossil fuels cannot be replenished as quickly as they are used, they are considered nonrenewable resources. If alternatives are not found, the question is not if we will run out of fossil fuels, but when.
Patterns of Energy Use, Discovery, and Depletion
Today, over 80 percent of American energy needs are supplied by fossil fuels. The most heavily used fuel is petroleum, or oil, which provides almost 40 percent of our energy needs.The extensive use of petroleum in the United States led geologist M. King Hubbert to predict in 1956 that U.S. oil supplies would peak between 1968 and 1972. To peak means to discover half of the existing oil reserves. This is important, because after half the oil has been discovered the rate of discovery begins to diminish. When the amount discovered is less than the amount consumed, the oil supply begins to diminish. Hubbert was right. You will look at the data yourself in this activity.
Predicting a “Peak”
Hubbert’s accuracy led others to apply his model to the global oil supply. His model predicts that global “peak oil” is imminent. Experts point out, however, that his predictions are based on production rates, which are affected by other factors besides remaining reserves. As you look at the data, you will be asked to form your own conclusions.
Procedure
Materials Graph paper or computer with graphing software
Step 1Examine the data below, from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, showing U.S. proved reserves of crude oil, from 1900 to 2005:
Year / U.S. Crude Oil Proved Reserves(millions of barrels)
1900 / 2,900
1905 / 3,800
1910 / 4,500
1915 / 5,500
1920 / 7,200
1925 / 8,500
1930 / 13,600
1935 / 12,400
1940 / 19,025
1945 / 20,827
1950 / 25,268
1955 / 30,012
1960 / 31,613
1965 / 31,352
1970 / 39,001
1975 / 32,682
1980 / 29,805
1985 / 28,416
1990 / 26,254
1995 / 22,351
2000 / 22,045
2005 / 21,757
Step 2On a sheet of graph paper, prepare a line graph, placing “Year” on the horizontal or x-axis, and the “Number of Barrels (millions)” on the vertical or y-axis. Plot the points and connect the dots.
Step 3Examine the data below, from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing worldwide production and consumption of oil, from 1980 to 2008:
Year / Worldwide Production(billions of barrels) / Worldwide Consumption
(billions of barrels)
1980 / 641.9335 / 23.03634381
1985 / 697.8134 / 21.93116588
1990 / 1,000.51262 / 24.34060903
1995 / 999.26084 / 25.59833397
2000 / 1,016.77222 / 28.01056758
2005 / 1,277.22766 / 30.67400148
2008 / 1,332.04308 / 31.29936493
Step 4On a sheet of graph paper, prepare a two-line graph. Write “Year” on the horizontal or x-axis. Set up two separate y-axes, one on each side of the graph. Use one axis for “Production (billions of barrels).” Use the other for “Consumption (billions of barrels).” Label and scale the two axes according to the data. Plot and connect points for each data set. Use different shapes or colors to differentiate the two data sets.
Step 5Examine the data below, from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing the worldwide price compared to production of oil, 1989 to 2009:
Year / Price (U.S. dollars) / Worldwide Production(billions of barrels)
1989 / 13.58 / 906.01775
1990 / 18.91 / 1,000.51262
1991 / 24.72 / 998.74547
1992 / 16.22 / 989.44345
1993 / 16.77 / 996.10477
1994 / 12.37 / 998.3357
1995 / 16.13 / 999.26084
1996 / 18.41 / 1,007.36815
1997 / 18.50 / 1,018.51542
1998 / 12.19 / 1,020.07466
1999 / 16.49 / 1,032.75268
2000 / 26.96 / 1,016.77222
2001 / 22.75 / 1,028.13239
2002 / 23.18 / 1,031.95448
2003 / 26.96 / 1,213.11185
2004 / 34.30 / 1,265.02558
2005 / 48.97 / 1,277.22766
2006 / 60.85 / 1,292.93553
2007 / 68.41 / 1,316.66242
2008 / 97.47 / 1,332.04308
2009 / 58.95 / 1,342.20732
Step 6On a sheet of graph paper, prepare a two-line graph, placing “Year” on the horizontal or x-axis. Set up two separate y-axes, one for “Price (USD)” and one for “Production (billions of barrels).” The two axes should be labeled and scaled according to the data. Plot the points and connect the dots. Use different dot shapes or line colors to differentiate them.
Analyze and Conclude
1.Graph Attach the graph of the data showing U.S. crude oil proven reserves from 1900 to 2005.
2.GraphAttach the graph of the data showing worldwide production and consumption of oil from 1980 to 2008 with two vertical axes (two y-axes).
3.GraphAttach the graph of data showing worldwide price and annual oil production from 1989 to 2009 with two vertical axes (two y-axes).
4.Analyze Data Based on the graph of the data showing U.S. crude oil proved reserves from 1900 to 2005, when did the U.S. crude oil reserves peak? How does this compare to the predictions of M. King Hubbert?
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5.Analyze Data Based on the graph showing worldwide production and consumption of oil from 1980 to 2008, how does the amount of consumption compare to the amount of production? (Note: Production, in this case, represents the proven worldwide reserve.)
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6.Interpret Graphs On the same graph, do you notice a particular pattern to the way that production has kept pace with consumption? Describe the pattern.
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7.Organize Data What are the advantages of placing production and consumption on the same graph?
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8.Draw Conclusions Based on the graphs of the data showing worldwide production, has the world supply of oil peaked yet, is it about to, or is it impossible to tell? Explain your answer.
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9.Analyze Data Based on the graph of the data showing worldwide price (USD) and oil production (billions of barrels) from 1989 to 2009, is there any relationship between when price begins to climb and production begins to climb? Explain your answer.
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10.Extension Based on the graph of the data showing worldwide price (USD) and oil production (billions of barrels) from 1989 to 2009, is there any relationship between when price begins to climb and production begins to climb? Explain your answer.
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Environmental Science • Lab Manual
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