Input and Output Budgets and Differences Between Present Loads and Critical Loads for Sulphur

INTERIM REPORT

Revised version

“SERVICE CONTRACT: INTEGRATED MEASURES IN AGRICULTURE TO REDUCE AMMONIA EMISSIONS”

Contract number 070501/2005/422822/MAR/C1

Tenderer Consortium

Alterra, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands

EuroCare, University of Bonn, Germany

A&F, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands

Sub contractors:

Umweltbundesamt, Austria

NEIKER, Spain

IMUZ, Poland

CEH, United Kingdom

MNP, Netherlands

ECN, Netherlands

NOVEMBER 2006
“Service contract: integrated measures in agriculture to reduce ammonia emissions”

INTERIM REPORT

Revised version

Oene Oenema, Gerard Velthof, Peter Witzke, Gert-Jan Monteny

November 2006

Administrative summary

Service contract:

Integrated measures in agriculture to reduce ammonia emissions”,

Contract number 070501/2005/422822/MAR/C1

Co-ordinating institution:

Alterra, WageningenUniversity and Research Centre

Person that signed the contract on behalf of the consortium:

Prof. dr. W. van Vierssen, general director of Alterra

Person authorised to manage the contract:

Prof. dr. Oene Oenema

Persons responsible for carrying out the technical aspects of the work:

Dr. Wim de VriesDr. M. Sutton

Dr. Gert-Jan MontenyDr. M. Pinto

Dr. AndreasAarninkDr. S. Pietrzak

Dr. Peter Witzke Dr. A. Bleeker

Dr. Wolfgang Britz

Dr. Ignazio Perez Dominguez

Dr. Gerard Velthof

Dr. Elizabeth Schwaiger

Dr. Jan-Willem Erisman

Contact information:

Alterra

Prof. Dr. Oene Oenema

P.O. Box 47; NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands

Contents

Administrative Summary 5

Summary 9

1. Introduction13

2. Brief overview of the service contract 15

3. Task 1Development and application of an integrated model19

3.1. General introduction19

3.2. Subtask 1.1. Development of a simple integrated method 19

3.2.1. Introduction19

3.2.2. Methodology19

3.2.3. Progress20

3.3. Subtask 1.2. Assessment of measures for NH3 emissions on nitrate leaching23

3.3.1. Introduction23

3.3.2. Progress23

3.4. Subtask 1.3. Assessment of measures for NO3 leaching on NH3 and

N2O emissions 24

3.4.1. Introduction24

3.4.2. Progress24

3.5. Subtask 1.4. Assessment of three RAINS scenarios on nitrate leaching26

3.5.1. Introduction26

3.5.2. Progress26

4. Task 2Analysis of International and European Instruments27

4.1. General Introduction27

4.2. Progress27

5. Task 3In depth assessment of the most promising measures31

5.1. General Introduction31

5.2. Methodology31

5.3. Progress33

5.4. Update of CAPRI parameters and codes 35

6. Task 4Impact assessment of a possible modification of the IPCC Directive37

6.1. General introduction37

6.2. Subtask 4.1. Data gathering 37

6.2.1. Introduction37

6.2.2. Methodology37

6.2.3. Progress38

6.3. Subtask 4.2. Assessment of options for lowering the current thresholds

in the IPPC39

6.3.1. Introduction39

6.3.2. Methodology40

6.3.3. Progress41

6.4. Subtask 4.3. In depth assessment of options for lowering the Thresholds42

6.4.1. Introduction42

6.4.2. Methodology42

6.4.3. Progress42

7. Task 5Stakeholder consultation, presentations, workshops45

7.1. General Introduction45

7.2. Progress45

7.3. Products45

8. Discussion and Conclusions49

ANNEXES:53

1.1. DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE INTEGRATED MODEL MITERRA-EUROPE (Velthof, et al., 2006)

2.1. ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN POLICY INSTRUMENTS: POLLUTION SWAPPING (Oenema et al., 2006)

3.1. IDENTIFICATION OF MOST PROMISING MEASURES (Witzke, 2006)

4.1.On the possible revised IPPC thresholds for European pig and poultry husbandry, and a possible threshold for cattle farms (MOnteny et al., 2006)

SUMMARY

European Commission, Directorate-General Environment has contracted Alterra, Wageningen UR for the “Service contract: integrated measures in agriculture to reduce ammonia emissions”. The general objective of the service contract is to have defined the most appropriate integrated and consistent actions to reduce various environmental impacts (notably water, air, climate change) from agriculture. Specifically, the objective is to have developed and applied a methodology allowing the assessment and quantification of the costs and the effects of various policies and measures aiming at reducing the impact of agriculture on water air pollution and climate change. Both ancillary benefits and trade offs of measures have to be identified. The impacts and feasibility of the most promising measures have to be analysed in depth.

This Interim Report describes the progress and the results of all activities and tasks of the Service Contract during the first nine months period from the signing of the contract on 21 December 2005 to 21 September 2006. The progress of the activities and tasks are indicated relative to the time schedule in the Inception Report. The results of the activities and tasks are summarized in reports, which are attached to this interim report as ANNEXES (1.1; 2.1; 3.1 and 4.1).

Task 1 deals with the development and application of an integrated approach (the model MITERRA-EUROPE). This model is derived from two existing models and subsequently extended with additional modules and tested. It incorporates data and algorithms fromCAPRI from EuroCare (which is commonly used to assess policy and market effects on agriculture in the EU), and measures and data about ammonia abatement from RAINS/GAINS from IIASA (which is commonly used for assessing gaseous emissions in the EU). MITERRA-EUROPE allows assessing the (side-)effects of measures aimed at reducing ammonia emissions (using the abatement measures of the UNECE-CLRTAP and IPPC Directive to achieve the targets of the IPPC and NEC Directives) on nitrate leaching, at the levels of regions (NUTS-2), MemberStates and EU-25. It also allows assessing the (side-)effects of measures aimed at reducing nitrate leaching (to achieve the targets of the Nitrates Directive) on ammonia emissions. Results so far indicate that the interactive effects can be significant, when integrated N management is lacking. Full implementation of the measures of CLRTAP in the EU-25 has the potential to decrease the emissions of NH3 by 49% relative to the reference situation without any NH3 emission abatement measures. However, these measures increase the leaching of NO3 by 11% and the emissions of N2O by 7% in the EU-25. Conversely, full implementation of the measures of Nitrates Directive has the potential to decrease the leaching of NO3 by 65% relative to the reference situation without any NO3leaching abatement measures. Moreover, these measures decrease the emissions of NH3by 10% and the emissions of N2O by 23% in the EU-25. These results indicate that the NH3 emission abatement measures likely have antagonistic effects on NO3 leaching, while NO3leaching abatement measures have synergistic effects on the emissions of NH3and N2O.in the EU-25. Further sensitivity analyses and assessments are needed to be able analyze the effects to the various assumptions made in the quantitative assessment. The model needs further testing and verification, and the three scenarios of RAINS/GAINS still have to be implemented and assessed.Based on the comments of the European Commission the draft report has been revised (see Annex 1.1) and re-submitted to the Commission.

Task 2 reports on the interactive effects (synergisms and antagonisms) of EU Policy instruments. The following policy instruments have been assessed in terms of synergistic and antagonistic (pollution swapping) effects:

-Nitrate leaching abatement measures of the Nitrate Directive;

-Ammonia abatement measures of UNECE-CLTRAP, IPPC and NEC Directives;

-Measures of the Bird and Habitat Directives;

-Cross-compliance measures;

-Measures of the Rural Development Regulation; and

-Measures to decrease nitrous oxide and methane emissions

Measures were categorized in six categories according to their pollution swapping potential and their effectiveness in decreasing emissions:

(i) Mitigation of N species emissions;

(ii) Controlling N input;

(iii) Extensification of agricultural production.

(iv) Regulations on animal welfare.

(v) Improving the competitiveness of agricultural sectors.

(vi) Spatial zoning.

Two types of pollution swapping have been distinguished:

• Type 1: swapping to other pollutants (i.e., decreasing the loss of one N species at the expense of other N species);
• Type 2 swapping to other areas (i.e., transferring the pollution potential from one area to another).

The results indicate that nitrate leaching and ammonia emission abatement measures may both contribute to ‘pollution swapping’, and that the potential of ammonia emission abatement measures to contribute to pollution swapping is larger than that of the nitrate leaching abatement measures. Spatial zoning of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones in the context of the Nitrates Directive and of Nature 2000 within the context of the Bird and Habitat Directives may contribute to pollution swapping to other areas. Based on the results of the qualitative analyses, a number of conclusions and recommendations have been formulated. Based on the comments of the European Commission the draft report has been revised (see Annex 2.1) and re-submitted to the Commission.

Task 3 reports on the in-depth assessment of most promising measures. Based on the results of the task 2 Report, an exploration of the protein content in the animal feed per MemberState, using the CAPRI data base, and based on discussions with animal nutrition experts and agronomists, the following broadly defined measures have been identified as most promising:

-improving N use efficiency in crop production through balanced N fertilization

-improving N use efficiency in animal production through low-protein feeding

-Combined implementation of balanced N fertilization, low-protein feeding and low-emission animal housing, animal manure storage and application.

The first measure is related to the codes of good agricultural practice in the Nitrates Directive. The second measure is related to BATs of the IPPC and of measures of the UNECE-CLRTAP. The third is a combination. Hence, these measures are not new, but based on our information, there are synergistic effects to be expected from a more stringent implementation of these measures in practice. We proposed to having an in depth discussion with the Commission about these suggested most promising measures soon. Based on the comments of the European Commission the report has been revised (see Annex 3.1) and re-submitted to the Commission.

Task 4 reports on the effects of possible modifications of threshold values of pig and poultry numbers,and of possible introduction of threshold values of cattle numbers,for applying Best Available Techniques (BAT) to reduce ammonia emissions at farm level (IPPC Directive). Overviews have been made of size categories of livestock farms for all Member States in the EU. Using these size categories, assessments have been made of modifications of thresholds values for pig and poultry farms and of a possible introduction of a threshold value for cattle. The results so far indicate that cattle is the largest source of ammonia in the EU-25 and including cattle under the IPPC Directive may have some effects on ammonia emissions. Based on the comments of the European Commission the report has been revised (see Annex 4.1) and re-submitted to the Commission.

Task 5 deals with stakeholder consultations and presentations of the (draft) results. The objectives and work of the Ammonia Service Contract (ASC) has been discussed in working groups and committees of IPPC, NEC and Nitrate Directive. Results have been presented also in workshops and Conferences.

In short, good progress has been made during the first nine months period, but a large amount still needs to be done. The activities that still need to be done are clearly indicated in this Interim Report. The management team of the ASC has set-out the structure and means to achieve all objectives of the ASC before the end of the contract. The following activities need in particular much attention:

-exchange of data and information (algorithms) between the teams of MITERRA-EUROPE and RAINS/GAINS

-testing and verification of MITERRA-EUROPE, in relation to among other RAINS/GAINS, CAPRI

-approval and assessment of most promising measures, and the identification of suitable policy instruments to implement these measures.

-Assessment of the effects of alterations of thresholds of the IPPC

1. introduction

European Commission, Directorate-General Environment has contracted Alterra, Wageningen UR for the “Service contract: integrated measures in agriculture to reduce ammonia emissions”. The general objective of the service contract is to have defined the most appropriate integrated and consistent actions to reduce various environmental impacts (notably water, air, climate change) from agriculture. Specifically, the objective is to have developed and applied a methodology allowing the assessment and quantification of the costs and the effects of various policies and measures aiming at reducing the impact of agriculture on water air pollution and climate change.

This Interim Report describes the progress and the results of all activities and tasks of the Ammonia Service Contract (ASC) during the first nine months period from the signing of the contract on 21 December 2005 to 21 September 2006. The progress of the activities and tasks are indicated relative to the time schedule in the Inception Report of the ASC. The results of the activities and tasks are summarized in reports attached to this Interim Report. The Interim Report follows more or less the structure of the Inception Report of the ASC. Chapters 3 to 7 describe the progress and results so far of each task subsequently. Chapter 8 summarizes the main issues to be discussed during the planning meeting and discussion of this report in Brussels on 11 October 2006.

The general impression is that the contract proceeds on schedule for most of the tasks. So far, no major issues have been identified that could hamper the achievement of the main purpose of the contract. However, various aspects need further discussion with the European Commission.

2. BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE SERVICE CONTRACT.

In this chapter a brief overview is presented of the “Service contract: integrated measures in agriculture to reduce ammonia emissions”. The objective of the ‘service contract’ is to have defined the most appropriate integrated and consistent actions to reduce various environmental impacts (notably water, air, climate change) from agriculture. Specifically, the objective is to have developed and applied a simple methodology allowing to assess and quantify the costs and the effects of various policies and measures aiming at reducing the impact of agriculture on water air pollution and climate Both ancillary benefits and trade offs of measures need to be identified. The impacts and feasibility of the most promising measures needs to be analysed in depth.

The coherence of the five tasks is illustrated in Figure 1. It clearly shows how task 1 delivers to tasks 2, 3, 4 and 5. Task 2 delivers to task 3 and 5. Conversely, there is also information flow backwards from the stakeholder meetings in task 5 to the work to be done in Tasks 1 to 4. In addition, there is an intensive exchange of data and information between especially IIASA (with the modelling tool RAINS/GAINS) and tasks 1, 3, and 4, in part via the related service contract “Measures in agriculture to reduce ammonia emission” Service Contract No 070501/2006/433072/FRA/C1; framework contract ENV.G.1/FRA/2004/0081

For the execution of the tasks, a combination of modelling tools is being used in a coherent framework (Figure 2). This combination of modelling tools consists of CAPRI, RAINS/GAINS and MITERRA-EUROPE supplemented with databases (Eurostat, JRC) and knowledge and expertise about ammonia and greenhouse gas emissions and especially nitrogen leaching processes. The CAPRI model is central tool and working equipment. CAPRI will be extended with expertise and data about nitrogen losses. MITERRA-EUROPE is based on a former version of MITERRA (for the Netherlands) and is extended to EU-25 using data and algorithms from CAPRI (N inputs and surpluses) and RAINS/GAINS (ammonia emissions and ammonia abatement techniques), and a newly built leaching module. MITERRA-Europe is the output of the specific objective of the service contract, i.e. “…to have developed and applied a methodology allowing to assess and quantify the cost and benefits of various policies and measures…”. Other outputs will be integrated impact assessments, evaluations of model performances and views and opinions from stakeholders

Figure 1. Coherence and information flow chart of tasks 1 to 5

RAINS/GAINS is the model that is being used by IIASA for the European Commission (DG ENV) to assess the effects of policy instruments on gaseous emissions into the atmosphere in the EU. The current service contract has to make information and knowledge available to be able to extent and amend the RAINS/GAINS model for the assessment of the effects of the implementation of the Nitrates Directive. The extension and implementation of new algorithms in RAINS/GAINS is covered by

Service Contract No 070501/2006/433072/FRA/C1; framework contract ENV.G.1/FRA/2004/0081, “Measures in agriculture to reduce ammonia emission”

The principal scales of the study are the NUTS-2 level, the Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZ’s), member state level and EU-25 level. The modelling output of RAINS/GAINS is at member state level. The output of CAPRI is at NUTS-2 level. The designation of NVZs as indicated by member states and soil information data is derived from maps and reports (derived from EU contract 2005/409860/MAR/B1 “IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NITRATES DIRECTIVE 91/676/EEC”) and used as input in CAPRI and MITERRA, to be able to calculate the area and location of the NVZ’s per NUTS-2.

Abatement technologies and measures in RAINS/GAINS have been disaggregated to NUTS-2 level in CAPRI and MITERRA-EUROPE and coupled with N surplus data and NVZ’s and soil information data allowing the assessment of the effects of the abatement technologies and measures on nitrate leaching. Similarly, measures and practices as noted in the Water Framework Directive (including the Nitrate Directive) are at member state, NVZ and catchments levels.

Figure 2. Coherent framework of the modelling tools in the current service contract. The major tools to be used are an extended version of CAPRI model and the simple integrated tool MITERRA-Europe. MITERRA-Europe will be developed and used in task 1.

3. TASK 1.

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF AN INTEGRATED MODEL

3.1. General introduction

The aims of this task are defined as follows:

To develop a simple, integrated model (including parameters and data) for the assessment of

(i)the impact of measures/technologies aiming at reducing ammonia emissions as integrated in the RAINS/GAINS model on nitrate emissions and,

(ii)the effects of the EU Nitrate Directive at 3 levels of implementation on ammonia, N2O and methane emissions.

Task 1 has been further subdivided in four subtasks, following the suggestion of the call for tender. These subtasks and the progress of these subtasks are described in detail in the paragraphs below. Also the activities that have been carried out to achieve the objective are being described in detail in the paragraphs below.

A description of the model, activity data and emission factors, the results of desk studies on leaching, and the first results of model calculations are presented in the report DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE INTEGRATED MODEL MITERRA-EUROPE (Velthof, et al.,) that is added as ANNEX 1.1 to this interim report.