Psy/Orf 322
Human – Machine Interaction
Spring 2005
Helping Humans Make Better Decisions
Operations Research and formal Decision Sciences grew out of military and industrial needs to create a discipline focused on making better decisions about the challenges of
- troop deployments,
- re-supply strategies,
- production processes and
- organizational priorities, to name a few.
The discipline has created computer-based tools that yield decisions about what to do, when!
Some have suggested that individuals in daily life face similar, while not as daunting, decisions and could use similar tools.
Is this over-kill?
Some have suggested that individuals in daily life face similar, while not as daunting, decisions and could use similar tools.
What do we do during the day:
- Sleep (8hrs)
- Work/Learning (8hrs)
- Eat (2 hrs)
- Commute (1hr +)
- Run errands (1hr+)
- Recreate/Entertainment/Learning (4 hr- + weekends)
What’s important:
- Food
- Shelter
- Clothing
- Travel
- Entertainment/Learning
Examples of every-day decisions for which individuals could use some help?
For example, the task of going to a particular place requires decisions by the individual of: where to go, when to leave, how to go, what route to take, turning left at the next intersection, etc. Not surprisingly, consumer-oriented adaptations of military and industrial systems that aid personal decision making in route choice and personal finance are beginning to appear on the market.
Is there a real need here, or are these simply solutions looking for a problem?
Homework reported:
Jason Aramburu
"AI Software in Everyday Life: A Survey"
by Maheshkumar R. Sabhnani, Pranav P. Rao and Archanaa V. Panchal
www-2.cs.cmu.edu/~sabhnani/PDF/maics01.pdf
In this article by Sabhnani et al, the concept of using Artificial Intelligence software to make everyday human decisions is explored. The authors give a brief history of AI, and then explain several methods of replicating everyday human decision making processes electronically. They explain how such techniques as Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic, and Knowledge based systems can be implemented to make human decisions easily and quickly. They also list some existing, everyday implementations of this technology, including: automatic control of vacuum cleaner motors depending on the level of dirt present, automatic control of lighting and aperture systems on camcorders, and even the use of AI to compose music that is pleasing to the human ear.
Authors: Girish Punj and Adam Rapp
Title: INFLUENCE OF ELECTRONIC DECISION AIDS ON CONSUMER SHOPPING IN ONLINE STORES
Source:
This article examines the scope and quality of electronic decision aids for consumers shopping on the internet (ie. comparative shopping sites that have the ability to compare prices and specifications for similar products around the web). These online programs aid humans in everyday decision making on a very basic scale: they simply present a larger amount of information to the user than they would otherwise be available to in a short period of time, in a clear manner. They also can provide feedback from other users, further increasing the knowledge set, and hence decision making capabilities of the user.
Neel Gehani
PSY/ORF 322
Homework #5
Article on Everyday Decisions – Citation / 100 Word Summary
Title: “Teaching the Use of Cost-Benefit Reasoning in Everyday Life”
Authors: Richard Larrick, James Morgan, Richard Nisbett, University of Michigan
Source: Psychological Science Vol. 1, No. 6, November 1990
URL:
Summary: This article focuses on everyday (?????) economic decisions made by people. The authors conclude that people who have basic cost-benefit analysis training are significantly more likely to act in economically rational ways with respect to simple personal economic decisions than people who have not had this training. Moreover, the authors contend that a brief training session is all that is needed to allow people to start making economically sound decisions and that the effects are long-lasting. Studies that analyze the effects of decisions involving sunk costs, opportunity costs, and net-benefit analysis are used to support and develop the authors’ arguments.
Teaching the Use of Cost-Benefit Reasoning in Everyday Life.
Authors:Richard P. Larrick, James N. Morgan, Richard E. Nisbett
Source:Psychological Science; Nov90, Vol. 1 Issue 6, p362, 9p
Link:
This article explores the application of abstract rules to everyday decisions, specifically microeconomic cost-benefit theory. Studies were conducted on individuals with and without economic backgrounds to gauge their reactions to everyday opportunity cost and sunk cost problems; such as leaving a bad movie or testing the "waste not, want not" principal. Additional studies were conducted where "naive" non-economist individuals were trained to use normative rules of choice and then tested on their ability to apply these rules to non-financial situations. The experiments demonstrated that training was indeed effective and that subjects were able to generalize from one domain to another, which suggests that people were learning and applying inferential rules, independent of concrete experiential knowledge.
Aaron Linsky
Can't Decide Where to Eat? Phone Service Helps Choose
Aaron Donovan. New York Times(Late Edition (east Coast)).New York, N.Y.:Jul 11, 1999. p.4
Author(s):
Aaron Donovan
Column Name:
NEW YORKERS & CO.
Section:
14
Publication title:
New York Times.(Late Edition (East Coast)).New York, N.Y.:Jul 11, 1999.pg.14.4
This article is about a service that helps people chose where to eat. I know that when we get a group of friends together, we almost never know where to go to eat. It's a fairly simple task, we can base our decision on food type, cost, quality or proximity, and this service helps if you can choose one of those categories to narrow down your choices. However, the real problem comes in weighing each of those factors because each has some value, we just don't know what we value more at any given instance. Coupled with inevitable differences in taste amongst members of even a small group, finding an agreeable restaurant becomes very difficult. If this service somehow could incorporate a relative weighting system and take multiple people's preferences into account, it might actually be useful.
Brenda Chan
PSYORF322
12 April 2005
Business before pleasure: no strategy for procrastinators?
This article examines basic time management decisions that people make in everyday life. It uses behavioral decision making theory, which predicts that time discounting influences time management choices to create a model for making task preferences. An example of positive time discounting would be a person valuing immediate outcomes more than delayed outcomes. If student were to decide between studying for an important exam that is not in the immediate future or going out with friends (the more attractive option), a student may value the immediate benefit of going out to the delayed benefit of obtaining a good score on the exam. This phenomenon is captured mathematically by the formula of time discounting: V = A / (1+kD), where V is the present discounted value of a delayed outcome, A is the non-discounted value of the delayed outcome, D is the delay or time lag until the outcome can be obtained, and k is a parameter for the individual differences in time discounting (k > 0 would describe positive time discounting. People who were more likely to procrastinate usually had higher k values and thus positively discount time. However, positive discounting can be reduced (and sometimes become negative time discounting) when the subjective value of the outcome is seen as higher, the greater the temporal distance to it. When people were to decide on a temporal sequence of tasks, then they were likely to prefer to temporally order tasks from worst to best. For instance, if people preferred task A to task B, and they were asked, “Do you prefer to do task A or B right now?” they would usually say task A. If they were given a temporal sequence, “Would you prefer to do ask A first, then task B, or first B, then A?” then people would tend to put tasks in order of worst to best, and say first task B, then A. If the temporal distance between tasks A and B were close, than people are likely to bracket these decisions together, and prefer improvement. First do B, then the more preferable A. The choice bracketing parameter c is placed in the time discounting formula: V = A / (1 + (k-c) D). The higher the c value (temporally close bracketing of choices), the lower the value of k-c, resulting in negative time discounting. Future enjoyment would be valued over present enjoyment. People who tend to procrastinate have higher k values, and temporally close choice bracketing may not be enough to induce a shift from positive to negative time discounting. Thus, these procrastinators may still show a preference to doing preferred tasks immediately and deferring less attractive tasks for the future.
Article citation:
Authors: Konig, C.J., Kleinmann, M. (2004)
Title: Business before pleasure: no strategy for procrastinators?
Journal title: Personality and Individual Differences Vol 37, pp 1045-1057
Vandre, Megan. “Professor Gadget.”Technology Review.com. July/August 2003. Available
Professor Ted Selker has a large and expanding collection of inventions. Many him as the inventor of the TrackPoint mouse button in the middle of IBM laptops. Recently Selker is “focusing on computerized gadgets for solving everyday problems.” He has invented several gadgets convenience and entertainment purposes, such as “Sputmik”, a fabric ball protecting a portable microphone that can be thrown around in a large room full of people when one needs to be heard, and a “multimedia couch bed” that allows people to control radio, television, and lights without moving. However, he has invented or made significant progress on several gadgets which can help people make decisions. For instance, he is working on a “smart” kitchen that can monitor food and give a person a list of dinner options for which he or she has the necessary ingredients. Another is a computer system in a car which warns the driver when they make unsafe driving mistakes such as forgetting to use a turn signal.
Karima Nigmatulina
PSY/ORF 322
Reading Assignment
Ku, Anne. “ The decision of indecision and other dilemmas.” Le Bon Journal. Vol. 2, Issue 4. April 2003.
Summary
The writer argues that if you are allowed to procrastinate, you will. People who are gripped by indecision procrastinate committing themselves. Not making decisions doesn’t always leave you with many options. The example presented in the article was how to pick a career out of a few options. The reason for avoiding such decisions is a kind of perfect hedge. It allows the decision maker to continue in and have excuses for not doing well. According to the general rule of thumb, heuristics allow people to make decisions. The main approaches listed in the article are cost-benefit, trade benefit, multi attribute utility and decision tree analysis.
Alejandra Barbosa
ORF/PSY 322
Kornhauser
April 12, 2005
Homework #5
Professor MacDonald organized a set of questions that a person can ask when making everyday decisions. His guide performs like a manual to utilize when questioning the best course of action. He outlines an assortment of questions that cause a person to consider each decision from his/her own perspective as well as that of others. He encourages the reader to consider what the long-term as well as short-term repercussions might be for him/herself and for those around and involved. Another suggestion is to relate the decision to another one previously made. This helps to think about past results, whether negative or positive to potentially assist this current decision development. Particularly related to moral decisions, MacDonald recommends talking to other respected peers whose opinions and morals are valued. This systematic approach is easy to follow and can be helpful for people to utilize.
MacDonald, Chris. “A Guide to Moral Decision Making.”
Charlie Cox
PSY/ORF 322
Homework #5
4/13/05
This article is about how we are often better off making decisions based on our immediate gut instinct rather than after detailed analysis. This sort of snapshot thinking allows us to sift through huge amounts of information and arrive at rapid conclusions with remarkable accuracy, often within a timeframe of 2 seconds. This sort of “thinking without thinking” is known as blinking and it is called “thin-slicing” when you use a limited amount of information to arrive at a conclusion. This can be better than thorough investigation of the problem which can lead to “analysis paralysis.”
Jeffrey Pinner
PSY/ORF-322
Homework #5
Ethical Decision Making Software
Link:
“Can computer tools support ethical decision making?”
by Kevin Mancherjee and Angela C. Sodan
This article describes case studies of the “Ethos tool,” a computer program which applies the HARPS Ethical Analysis Methodology based on the utilitarian and respect-for-persons theories of ethics. It enables the user to outline the decision making process in order to assist him in making ethical decisions by viewing judgments and rationale for the decision made as well as possible consequences. It is specifically tailored to software development for the business side of computer science. The program also allows users to go back and add information, acting essentially as a catalog of the problem so that the user can view different alternatives in order to choose the ethical solution to any practical dilemma. The above article outlines what they consider to be a successful test of the computer model on 38 test subjects.
Michael Ortiz
Orf/Psy 322 Assignment #5
Consumer Decision Making - Fact or Fiction? Richard W. Olshavsky; Donald H. Granbois, The Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 6, No. 2, Special Issue on Consumer Decision Making. (Sep., 1979), pp. 93-100.
Stable URL:
Summary
This paper is a focuses on consumers’ everyday purchase behavior, analyzing whether a decision making process is involved when purchasing, or if consumers are predetermined to make a certain choice. The authors analyze areas such as budget allocation, store purchases, and brand purchases and find that purchases generally do not contain any decision making; instead consumers purchase items out of necessity, “culturally-mandated lifestyles” (Olshavsky, Granbois), acquired preferences, peer pressure, or impulse. Furthermore, for those purchases that are accompanied by decision making processes, the process is very limited, as consumers must choose among trivial alternatives; this triviality means the consumer does not spend much time with the decision and therefore is able to make it quickly. Hence, in making purchases, decision making is trivial at best.
Sharla Cloutier Assignment #5
PSY/ORF 322
12 April 2005
Ouellette, J. A. & Wood, W. (1998) Habit and intention in everyday life: the multiple processes by which past behavior predicts future behavior.Psychological Bulletin, vol. 124, no. 1. Retrieved April 12, 2005 from APA PsycNET.
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Decisions are usually associated with a certain amount of freedom of choice among a given set of options. However, habits prevent the full exercise of intention in the decision-making process. While a person may desire to lose weight, past conditioning experiences of overeating and lack of activity may prevent the fruition of this goal. Conscious and unconscious intentions interact with habits to control future actions, meaning that most decisions stem from patterned behavior. Decisions regarding circumstances outside the bounds of previous experience only partially depend on related habits and behaviors, leaving more room for freedom of choice.
Todd Levy
Jurgen Friedrichs and Karl-Dieter Opp, "Rational Behavior in Everyday Situations." European Sociological Review, Dec. 1, 2002.
This article presents an empirical study on everyday decisions such as traveling, or going to a restaurant. It presents an interesting comparison between everyday decisions and life decisions such as choosing a job. Their goal was to find to what extent people consider different alternatives. It seems they discovered the obvious. Decision situations "exhibit a low complexity" and with respect to everyday behavior individuals consider fewer alternatives.
This is a news story about how Sony has secured a patent for beaming sensory information into the brain. If this technology becomes feasible, it could help the blind or deaf live an "easier" life and make better decisions. Everyday decisions are often habitual, but with this technology they could become even more "unconscious."
Author:United Kingdom Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Title: Helping People Make Better Choices
Source: URL:
Summary:The reading I found is a chapter taken from a United Kingdom government paper titled “The UK Government Sustainable Development Strategy” and was presented to Parliament by the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.
The chapter the reading is from is the second chapter titled “Helping People Make Better Choices”. This chapter explains that behavior changes in how people make everyday choices (in all areas of life from using public transportation to recycling or littering) are necessary to create sustainable development for the future. They claim that being informed about issues doesn’t necessarily lead to behavior change. “Information does not necessarily lead to increased awareness, and increased awareness does not necessarily lead to action. Information provision, whether through advertisements, leaflets or labeling, must be backed up by other approaches.”