EdGCM: Hot Times On Planet Earth

Analysis of the effects of increased CO2 on global temperatures and the rationale for various mitigation scenarios.

During the summer of 2003 a heat wave bathed western Europe in stifling temperatures for more than a month and ultimately led to the deaths of 35,000 people across the continent.

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In September 2005 Hurricane Katrina, one of most powerful and costly hurricanes to ever strike the United States resulted in the deaths of 1836 people, mostly in the city of New Orleans. Whether or not these specific events are the earliest manifestations of the effects of increasing global temperatures, they are exactly the kinds of phenomena that climate scientists say will become more frequent as carbon dioxide and global temperatures continue to rise.

In this global drama your students will play the role of Nobel Peace Prize winning climate researchers and will usethe same global climate modeling techniques used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)scientists to simulate and forecast future climate change.

Each student, or group of students, will represent acountryof their choice and will perform analyses that will be used in a report that is intended to help policymakers in their government decide on an appropriate response to climate change.

All governments are very concerned about the increasing strain that climate change could place on their people and their economy. In particular they are worried that climate change could result in the unexpected costs, both monetary and in terms of human suffering. associated with disaster relief, infrastructure damage, destruction of habitats, and loss of life. It is your job to analyze the temperature increases that will arise if carbon dioxide emissions rates continue to increase and to suggest alternate scenarios that may reduce, or mitigate, the rising temperatures.

Global Analyses: Global analyses of key climate variables will be conducted. The results will be used to help students arrive at a consensus viewpoint on the likely future climate effects of increasing greenhouse gases.

Students will be expected to examine up to 5 scenarios, as follows:

  1. CO2 emission rates continue to increase (A2? A1FI?)
  2. CO2 emission rates continue to increase but are capped at 2030 levels.
  3. CO2 emission rates are gradually reduced until atmospheric CO2 is back to 1990 levels.
  4. CO2 emission rates are instantaneously reduced to 1990 levels.
  5. A giant mirror is placed in space that reflects enough solar energy to counteract the greenhouse effect caused by increased CO2. (Students will then calculate the size of the mirror necessary to reflect this much energy).